Salary Cap: Penguins Salary Cap Thread: We suck again summer edition

[ChaosAgent]

How the hell am I a mess? We have the 14th overall f****** pic. The highest pick we've had and probably close to 20 f****** years. In a very strong draft. You don't trade the pic unless somebody knocks your socks off. You don't do it to get rid of someone in a salary dump. That's poor Asset Management it's not going to happen, give up or piss off!

How is our draft position over the last 20 years relevant to this one?

Poor asset management is setting the expectation that #14OA must be a star because you haven't picked that high in a while.
In reality the expected value of this pick is the same as any other pick - slightly better than 15th and slightly worse than 13th. Mind you, he'll be our top prospect instantly if we keep it/him.

We're going for it, supposedly, and we have a guy whose value is league minimum in actuality making $5M for each of the next 2 years. He's a huge problem. Explore every avenue to rid ourselves of him. I think the most likely is in the Gibson trade.

 

[Pancakes]

I would not move the pick to cap dump Granlund. That's crazy talk imo.

But I would absolutely move that pick for someone like Hellebyuck or whatever.

 

[eXile3]

Just realized we’re paying Jack Johnson’s contract for like 3 more years.

Buying out contracts is awful

 

[K Fleur]

If I was GM I’d trade Sidney Crosby for Mark Scheiffle.

 

[ChaosAgent]

Just realized we’re paying Jack Johnson’s contract for like 3 more years.

Buying out contracts is awful

Yeah, the buyout option is not cheap. It's like a $2M mouth ulcer on our team for the next X years.

Probably the best way to move him and keep the first is a "money out money back" trade - if we get Gibson Granlund will 100% be part of what goes the other way. I think Conor Garland is still a possibility with us adding POJ or a 2nd/4th or something.

 

[Ryder71]

How is our draft position over the last 20 years relevant to this one?

Poor asset management is setting the expectation that #14OA must be a star because you haven't picked that high in a while.
In reality the expected value of this pick is the same as any other pick - slightly better than 15th and slightly worse than 13th. Mind you, he'll be our top prospect instantly if we keep it/him.

We're going for it, supposedly, and we have a guy whose value is league minimum in actuality making $5M for each of the next 2 years. He's a huge problem. Explore every avenue to rid ourselves of him. I think the most likely is in the Gibson trade.

I don't necessarily expect 14th overall to be a star, but you got to start building through the draft again. We have almost no prospects. You have to start restocking the shelf, it's that simple. At least with a 14th overall pick you have a chance to get a decent player there. There's no guarantee. Well I'll guarantee you one thing okay, we will not win a Stanley Cup again with Sidney Crosby okay? You can quote me on that okay? We will not win a Stanley Cup with Sidney Crosby anymore, bet on it!

 

[Turin]

I would not move the pick to cap dump Granlund. That's crazy talk imo.

But I would absolutely move that pick for someone like Hellebyuck or whatever.

I didn't say to dump Granlund, I said to dump Granlund and get more picks back that were lower - if that's what it took.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I don't necessarily expect 14th overall to be a star, but you got to start building through the draft again. We have almost no prospects. You have to start restocking the shelf, it's that simple. At least with a 14th overall pick you have a chance to get a decent player there. There's no guarantee. Well I'll guarantee you one thing okay, we will not win a Stanley Cup again with Sidney Crosby okay? You can quote me on that okay? We will not win a Stanley Cup with Sidney Crosby anymore, bet on it!

I am under no delusions that we will.

Just saying - Disagree and Commit. The road we are headed down is trying to compete. Is it the best road? Probably not. But let's pick the lane and go with it regardless.

 

[Turin]

Just realized we’re paying Jack Johnson’s contract for like 3 more years.

Buying out contracts is awful

Yea buyouts should be absolute last resort on a horrendously bad deal - like JJ.

 

[Ryder71]

I am under no delusions that we will.

Just saying - Disagree and Commit. The road we are headed down is trying to compete. Is it the best road? Probably not. But let's pick the lane and go with it regardless.

I feel very sure that our bottom six will be vastly improved next season. That's the area that should be addressed. A defenseman and of course goaltending. I think KD will Shore up those areas. That doesn't mean he has to pillage what is left of our draft class. We only have two picks until round 5. Let's at least get something.

 

[ChaosAgent]

I feel very sure that our bottom six will be vastly improved next season. That's the area that should be addressed. A defenseman and of course goaltending. I think KD will Shore up those areas. That doesn't mean he has to pillage what is left of our draft class. We only have two picks until round 5. Let's at least get something.

I was proposing trading 1 draft pick for 2 draft picks before round 5.

It's not impossible to find something good in the early 2nd round either.

But it's all good. The best way is to obscure Granlund's self in money-for-money. Like in the potential Gibson trade (which may involve us trading #14 regardless).

 

[Ryder71]

I was proposing trading 1 draft pick for 2 draft picks before round 5.

It's not impossible to find something good in the early 2nd round either.

But it's all good. The best way is to obscure Granlund's self in money-for-money. Like in the potential Gibson trade (which may involve us trading #14 regardless).

I don't think we have to trade 14th overall. I just don't understand the logic behind it. I heard your argument and I think it's a bunch of bs. I guess we'll just agree to disagree. But Trading arguably are best young asset is just absurd! I mean the idea that we're anywhere close to being a legitimate cup Contender is silly. We just missed the playoffs, our star players are only getting older and the chances of them playing every game next year is Slim and none. It's just nonsensical to think along those lines. Maybe you can make this a playoff team next year. Maybe even win a round in the playoffs. Probably not but that would be a great year for the Penguins. That doesn't mean you have to trade your 14th overall draft pick in the process.

 

[Ugene Magic]

Keep the pick at this point unless it's part of a young stud package.

 

[Jacob]

Ingram is intriguing to me, not as a starter but as a more-than-just-backup. With Arizona’s situation let’s offer sheet him at the maximum without any draft pick compensation, $1.4m.

 

[Big Friggin Dummy]

I wouldn't target Gibson, personally. I don't think Anaheim is gonna trade him for cheap and I don't think he's any good tbh. Even at the cost of getting rid of Granlund--Gibson makes like $1.5 million more and for longer iirc.

 

[DearDiary]

It would make sense to buy out Granlunds contract if Dubas considers the Pens to have a short window of playoffs. 800k caphit next season then 1.8m afterwards.

4.2m to spend on a goalie this season
Next season 2.2m for Guentzals contract + 1m for a bottom 6 replacement.

 

[Bishop7979]

In no world should the 14th overall be a sweetener To unload granlund or to get back some bottom six nobody like nic mf-ing roy….

If you retain 1 mil on granlund you can get chi, the ducks, or Arizona to take him for significantly less than the 14th pick knowing that if he gets his rep rehabbed playing top six minutes on a shit team he can be moved again for value, especially if they then retain. I’d bed Chicago would take granlund at 4mil for a 2024 3rd knowing they could flip him again for the same or better if then offered at 3mil.

granlund does need to be moved though, that 4 mil would be huge to fill holes this year.

and dump petry while you’re at it. Send him to Detroit for kubalik. get a middle sixer with size and speed back who would look great with Geno and saves 3.5 mil.

detroit could use a vet to play with edvinsson and are under the cap minimum right now While having some forwards to spare moving forward.

there are enough defenders avail in ufa to grab a second pairing guy cheaper and younger than petry so he wouldn’t be missed.

sign Ryan graves or gavrikov, or see what the discount is for klingberg after his ufa eff up last year, or price check orlov, dumba, or severson.

for the “they won’t win anything ever again” crowd. Sid, jake, Geno, rackel, and rust are 5 out of a great top six

letang, petts is a good top pair poj, rutta, smith are a good 4,5,6.

the team needs a rebuilt bottom 6, which can be done, an good mobile number 3, and a healthy, competent goalie to be a playoff team again…which can be done with a couple smart moves by anyone not named hextall in charge.

it feallytook a special level of stupid to eff up that team last year.

 

[ChaosAgent]

In no world should the 14th overall be a sweetener To unload granlund or to get back some bottom six nobody like nic mf-ing roy….

If you retain 1 mil on granlund you can get chi, the ducks, or Arizona to take him for significantly less than the 14th pick knowing that if he gets his rep rehabbed playing top six minutes on a shit team he can be moved again for value, especially if they then retain. I’d bed Chicago would take granlund at 4mil for a 2024 3rd knowing they could flip him again for the same or better if then offered at 3mil.

granlund does need to be moved though, that 4 mil would be huge to fill holes this year.

and dump petry while you’re at it. Send him to Detroit for kubalik. get a middle sixer with size and speed back who would look great with Geno and saves 3.5 mil.

detroit could use a vet to play with edvinsson and are under the cap minimum right now While having some forwards to spare moving forward.

there are enough defenders avail in ufa to grab a second pairing guy cheaper and younger than petry so he wouldn’t be missed.

sign Ryan graves or gavrikov, or see what the discount is for klingberg after his ufa eff up last year, or price check orlov, dumba, or severson.

for the “they won’t win anything ever again” crowd. Sid, jake, Geno, rackel, and rust are 5 out of a great top six

letang, petts is a good top pair poj, rutta, smith are a good 4,5,6.

the team needs a rebuilt bottom 6, which can be done, an good mobile number 3, and a healthy, competent goalie to be a playoff team again…which can be done with a couple smart moves by anyone not named hextall in charge.

it feallytook a special level of stupid to eff up that team last year.

I know this board likes to take a "all hockey executives are stupid" POV, but I'm doubting that the next buyer for a contending team would be fooled if Granlund has 11 Goals and 29 assists in 60 games getting favorable usage and 1PP time for the Blackhawks at the deadline.

The previous GM got fired partially for acquiring Granlund and an assistant got fired almost exclusively due to acquiring Granlund.
Will the league get fooled again?

 

[Ryder71]

Gavrikov intrigues me.

 

[Ulf5]

I hate the idea of any cap space being used by players who aren't playing for you, although it might need to come to that.. but I would sooner trade the 1st and Granlund for a later pick than buy him out. Then give his money to Bunting.

I'm not down with trading the first to move Granlund. But paying Granlund and JMFJ $3 million to not play for us is pure lunacy.
I don't think it'll cost a first to move him. If Dubas even wants to. As linked above, Dubas just somewhat recently tried to acquire Granlund himself.

 

[Bishop7979]

I know this board likes to take a "all hockey executives are stupid" POV, but I'm doubting that the next buyer for a contending team would be fooled if Granlund has 11 Goals and 29 assists in 60 games getting favorable usage and 1PP time for the Blackhawks at the deadline.

The previous GM got fired partially for acquiring Granlund and an assistant got fired almost exclusively due to acquiring Granlund.
Will the league get fooled again?

there’s “acquiring granlund at 5 mil with two plus years left to play primarily in the worst bottom six in the league when he is a player that needs to have better players around him to contribute offensively“ level stupid

and then there is picking him up say at 3 mil or even 2 mil this year, or better yet next year when he is an expiring contract, and fitting him onto either a well built 3rd line with two other actual nhl level players or sliding him onto a line that is missing its playmaker due to a late season injury for a bubble team that needs that hole filled on the cheap.

these are two totally different situations with the second not being unreasonable.

the pens were the worst team he could have ended up on both fit wise and for us contract wise. It was just another in a long list of utterly stupid moves by hextall.

 

[Peat]

Granlund had a 2.35 points/60 in his 64 point season. To me, that really doesn't seem bad. He was 115th in the NHL in points/60 that year with a points/60 identical to Hertl and Dubois and just a shade below Bjorkstrand and Niederreiter.

He was very obviously heavily reliant on powerplay production that year, although he was still not that bad at 5v5. He was 173rd in 5v5 points/60 and was equal to William Karlsson, Pageau and Coyle. It's not anything special and he's definitely more of a powerplay producer, but he has shown to be able to produce decently well at ES in the past.

I think everyone agrees with what he is, he's an playmaking offensive winger mostly bringing value to your powerplay. It's just a debate of how much value that has around the NHL.

To me, 173rd in 5v5 p/60 is bad for a guy playing a lot with Duchene and Forsberg (particularly since Forsberg had a top 30 2.9 or something while ripping it up in his contract year).

It's true he has produced well on the PP. That isn't consistent though and a look at p/60 and chance share metrics would suggest he's not usually the man driving the bus there. A skilled PP player who can support star players has value but not as much as someone who can be a star there. I'm not sure he's anything more than what most people can do there.

As such, I'm sticking to my point. He's been in good positions to produce and what he's done has, by and large, not been that special. It ranges from pretty good to meh on the PP, and from meh to kinda bad at 5v5.

I don't see a lot of reason to hope he has much value. I don't think he has value to a good team, not at 5m. The bad teams have too many calls to be nice about us trying to offload him.

Best hope I think would be retain him down to 3m and do a contract swap with a team trying to save money and who are on the edges of the playoffs - not so good they can't use him, not so crap they don't see the point. Vancouver is a screamingly obvious target there.

 

[Empoleon8771]

To me, 173rd in 5v5 p/60 is bad for a guy playing a lot with Duchene and Forsberg (particularly since Forsberg had a top 30 2.9 or something while ripping it up in his contract year).

It's true he has produced well on the PP. That isn't consistent though and a look at p/60 and chance share metrics would suggest he's not usually the man driving the bus there. A skilled PP player who can support star players has value but not as much as someone who can be a star there. I'm not sure he's anything more than what most people can do there.

As such, I'm sticking to my point. He's been in good positions to produce and what he's done has, by and large, not been that special. It ranges from pretty good to meh on the PP, and from meh to kinda bad at 5v5.

I don't see a lot of reason to hope he has much value. I don't think he has value to a good team, not at 5m. The bad teams have too many calls to be nice about us trying to offload him.

Best hope I think would be retain him down to 3m and do a contract swap with a team trying to save money and who are on the edges of the playoffs - not so good they can't use him, not so crap they don't see the point. Vancouver is a screamingly obvious target there.

Yeah it’s honestly hard for me to disagree with any of this. I think your description of his production is pretty appropriate, at best he’ll give you pretty good PP production and okay ES production while not offering anything beyond his production. It’s similar to what Kessel ended up being as he got older and older, but just with less production in both.

With that being said, I also think it’s worth questioning whether a lot of teams would do better than “pretty good PP production and okay ES production” with the salary he makes. If you look at a lot of the UFAs signed in recent years to salaries around what Granlund makes, it’s not like a lot of them were all that much more productive than Granlund would be.

I’ve said this a few times, but I think Granlund’s value is that of a point producer on a bad team. He will give you 50-60 points if you play him in prime offensive minutes, but your team likely sucks if he’s your first option for those minutes. But with that being said, does he still offer value to those teams that he would be the first option for that role? It’s hard to tell.

 

[Sidney the Kidney]

If I was GM I’d trade Sidney Crosby for Mark Scheiffle.

According to *some* Pens fans, Crosby's barely a 1C at this point. So we'd have to add to that for Winnipeg to even consider it.

 

[Ulf5]

To me, 173rd in 5v5 p/60 is bad for a guy playing a lot with Duchene and Forsberg (particularly since Forsberg had a top 30 2.9 or something while ripping it up in his contract year).

It's true he has produced well on the PP. That isn't consistent though and a look at p/60 and chance share metrics would suggest he's not usually the man driving the bus there. A skilled PP player who can support star players has value but not as much as someone who can be a star there. I'm not sure he's anything more than what most people can do there.

As such, I'm sticking to my point. He's been in good positions to produce and what he's done has, by and large, not been that special. It ranges from pretty good to meh on the PP, and from meh to kinda bad at 5v5.

I don't see a lot of reason to hope he has much value. I don't think he has value to a good team, not at 5m. The bad teams have too many calls to be nice about us trying to offload him.

Best hope I think would be retain him down to 3m and do a contract swap with a team trying to save money and who are on the edges of the playoffs - not so good they can't use him, not so crap they don't see the point. Vancouver is a screamingly obvious target there.

You might be able to work something with an Anaheim or somebody. They're short of D under contract. Both POJ and Smith need waivers.
Maybe Granlund, Smith for Vatrano. They need money against the cap, have a lot of space. Plus Smith's experience might entice them.