Randy Butternubs
Registurd User
I'm tempering my expectations. Plus I suspect he'll be focusing a bit more on defense this coming season.
Confirmed with Link: Penguins acquire Erik Karlsson for Granlund, 1st rounder in 2024, Rutta, Petry, DeSmith (more in first post)
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I'm tempering my expectations. Plus I suspect he'll be focusing a bit more on defense this coming season.
Some option
I believe it's standard for the Penguins to be able to choose to exercise the option, although I don't think I've seen absolute confirmation in this case. Although it's possibly a little moot, as it feels like any season bad enough to absolutely be a case of continued down trajectory is one where you probably don't want to hand over the pick anyway.
But that's the scoring rate of a number one dman who is elite offensively and gives a shit about defence. Lower than what the best are doing in the best situations, which is what we think we have.
For us to give Letang's role to Karlsson and get less than what we got from non-catastrophe season Letang would... well, suck.
Ugene Magic
EVIL LAUGH
There's nothing legitimately going to take out those -'s from that Geno line. They are here to stay, like do people really believe it was all Kessel? The dudes getting older, he still gets his points though. 47 even strength on 16 goals and 31 assists. 36 PPP's, 83 points overall. He gets a PPG no matter who's on his line.
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Randy Butternubs
Registurd User
I think Karlsson's ppg average for his NHL career is just over 0.80. Last season was an outlier (good). As was the one before that (bad). Should he play a full 82 my 0.85 guess equates to 70 points which I think is a success.
I'm on my phone so some of the above might be a bit off.
Edit to add: A thread with a poll on anticipated EK65 production would be worthwhile.
pistolpete11
Registered User
- Apr 27, 2013
- 12,249
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I'd settle for Guentzel-Crosby not being written in stone. I don't think anything should be permanent.
It's obviously not good Guentzel is out, but the silver lining is that Sullivan will be forced to see what some of the other options are. Maybe Smith-Crosby looks incredible and Sully realizes that Crosby doesn't need Guentzel.
Performance bonuses get added to next year's cap? Yeah, probably needlessly aggressive. The era is winding down, but I don't think they are quite at Last Dance territory yet. Not for somebody on Tatar's level anyway.
Ugene Magic
EVIL LAUGH
I for one will not put those kind of lofty projections on him, though it is possible they could be a PPG or higher, but changing teams, learning new players and such I'd be happy with 50+ to 60+. He'll grow into the team and get more comfortable and I think he'll do more in the coming seasons.
Randy Butternubs
Registurd User
I don't think Tatar is eligible for performance bonuses. Played too many games last season. And is not old enough.
Jaded-Fan
Registered User
Karlsson is a player with a recent history of injury shortened seasons coming to the team with the most man games lost over the last two decades.
Injuries could definitely play a key role on his production. For the whole team for that matter whose stars are all in their mid-30s
Over/Under on playing 55 games?
Injuries could definitely play a key role on his production. For the whole team for that matter whose stars are all in their mid-30s
Over/Under on playing 55 games?
Ah bollocks, correct. I forget the games played part of it.
AjaxTelamon
Registered User
- Jul 8, 2011
- 6,090
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I know it's not fashionable to say, but Carter won't be nearly as bad and may even border on useful if they don't have to try to use him like the shut down 3C that he has never been in his career. I am not saying he's worth his cap hit, but playing less minutes and in a slightly more sheltered role he'll be better. Hell, he's our best Sid and Geno backup right now, and won't entirely waste skilled linemates because he will go to the dirty areas and just be big.
If he plays with guys that can maintain control of the puck and can get it on net, such as say, certain d-men, I would not be surprised if he looks a lot better this year. You just can't throw him out there with Kapanen and Ruutta in a D zone start and expect anything but a disaster.
I think EK is great and all, but if Lars Eller is our 2C for 20-40 games when Sid or Geno are hurt, I don't expect much offense to come no matter who is on defense.
If he plays with guys that can maintain control of the puck and can get it on net, such as say, certain d-men, I would not be surprised if he looks a lot better this year. You just can't throw him out there with Kapanen and Ruutta in a D zone start and expect anything but a disaster.
I think EK is great and all, but if Lars Eller is our 2C for 20-40 games when Sid or Geno are hurt, I don't expect much offense to come no matter who is on defense.
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pistolpete11
Registered User
- Apr 27, 2013
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I think Letang's numbers will be affected by Karlsson more so than the other way around. Karlsson 'should' be the number 1 OFD on the roster like he's always been. I'd be pretty disappointed if he's under a 60P/82G pace.
Coastal Kev
There will be "I told you so's" Bet on it
If it makes them a better watch this year, I guess it's a win in the near term. Kicking futures to the curb for a team that is a year older after missing the playoffs is inconceivable. INCONCEIVABLE
Ugene Magic
EVIL LAUGH
If the Pens could hold out a little bit maybe Kane would be a good get. Tatar is okay, but Kane is pretty much a PPG no matter what season it is. I bet you could get him for Tatar coin or maybe less due to his current status.
Edit: Come Nov./Dec. with Kane, Jake should be back in Oct/Nov. too.
Guentzel, Crosby, Rakell
Rust, Malkin, Kane
Smith, Eller, Carter
O'Connor, Aciarri, Nylander, Nieto, Pitlick
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Not sure how credible it is, but there is a rumor that Dubas isn’t done and he’s looking to trade for someone who is the perfect compliment to EK65.
- Jun 13, 2010
- 43,474
- 22,509
I still say that zone starts are over-rated. WIth that stat, you still have to consider that it's even a fraction of how a players starts his shift as well. I think the game is too dynamic for that to be a major consideration.
I'd still love to get a 3rd line that has a scoring punch. Then make the 4th line a heavy defensive line. Maybe one of the things that comes out of the Jake injury is someone like Puustinen knocking it out of the park. Then you can run something sexy like:
Jake-Sid-Rakell
Smith-Malkin-Puustinen
Tatar-Accari-Rust
DOC-Eller-Nieto
Buddy Bizarre
Registered User
- Jul 9, 2021
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I know people are curious to what EK will bring (not bring) on the defensive end. But I've said this all along when people want to rip the defensemen and the goalies on this team: the forwards we had last year absolutely avoided defensive responsibilities. Jake and Sid were the biggest culprits.
I pointed this out last year where we'd have AT LEAST 1 goal against per game that was clearly on a forward missing their assignment. I wish I had time and I'd go through all the damn goals given up and I'd say an easy 50% of those came about due to a forward's lapse in coverage. From not chipping out the puck at the blue line to not providing backpressure to blue line entries and just not covering the slot. It was horrendous.
OnMyOwn
Worlds Apart
- Sep 7, 2005
- 19,177
- 4,818
I’m hopeful some of his injury issues are over. He was healthy for most of his career until his ankle blew up, then he was finally healthy last year.
Fingers crossed.
BlindWillyMcHurt
ti kallisti
- May 31, 2004
- 36,602
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The problem wasn't and still isn't Jeff Carter the player. It's how he's been used.
Stop treating the guy like he's some sort of clutch hockey wizard that needs force-injected into every critical game situation and it's all good. As a 4th line and occasional HS player who can still help out PP2 with that shot of his... he'd be fine.
Stop treating the guy like he's some sort of clutch hockey wizard that needs force-injected into every critical game situation and it's all good. As a 4th line and occasional HS player who can still help out PP2 with that shot of his... he'd be fine.
Ugene Magic
EVIL LAUGH
What does that even mean? They don't need a LD.
Yeah, I have no idea. Like I said I’m not sure it’s very credible.
Problem is a full career PPG covers some shaky eras of NHL defence, not to mention his own development, ups and downs on a bad team. For example - that sophomore hint of a breakout 45 point season was good for 17th that year. It'd be 25th this year.
So, here's Karlsson's finish by ppg, filtered to a minimum of 50 games...
'10 - 44th
'11 - 13th
'12 - 1st
'13 - Injured
'14 - 1st
'15 - 1st
'16 - 1st
'17 - 2nd
'18 - 1st
'19 - 6th
'20 - 10th
'21 - 37th
'22 - 14th
'23 - 1st
That six year peak where he is unquestionably the best offensive dman in the league only yields .91 ppg. That's just era. He blew by that total this year. Take prime Karlsson and stick him in today's NHL and he's doing point per game guaranteed.
The question is which Karlsson are we getting? Last season, who showed he can still be his peak? Or the three seasons before?
Well one thing you've got to consider is in that three season period, the highest scoring Sharks forwards for ppg were Hertl and Meier, at 68th and 75th (.79. .78 respectively). You find four Penguins forwards in the top 50 alone, and none of them have declined that much. For him to not get a scoring bump would be a disappointment in itself. And there's an aberration season in there.
I think '20/'22 Karlsson should be, as a floor, 10th in scoring on the Penguins. Which last season maps well to your guess (.88 ppg, good for 72 points). But... we didn't get a 10m player because we thought we were getting his floor, right?
So my expectation is point per game. That's not even his ceiling here. Him getting 90 points seems very plausible. A 70 point pace with strong playdriving metrics is good enough, I'll be happy. Below that, and we're not getting Erik Karlsson's talent out of him, and I won't be happy.
Where's it coming from?
DesertedPenguin
Registered User
- Mar 11, 2007
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