LeBrun: Patrik Laine wants a fresh start and trade out of Columbus

[majormajor]

that doesnt help the case. The EV offense and defense kills the value. Teams dont need a PP shooting specialist as a 9 million dollar cap hit then add in he has played 130 games in the last 3 seasons.

I think you might have misunderstood the stats.

The EV offense and EV defense - both of which are okayish numbers very close to the median player - are separated from finishing ability, penalties, etc... but finishing and those other stats also apply to 5v5.

So Laine's 5v5 impacts are actually very good, probably above 90th percentile, if you include finishing. I would assume it's better than his 5v4 impacts, which I doubt register because he didn't elevate Columbus' PP at all. It was awful before he arrived and it still is.

Check out Laine's career progression in point scoring rate at 5v5.

Compare Laine's scoring rates in 2021-22 (2.53 P/60) and 2022-23 (2.24 P/60) to what Hurricanes players scored in those same years. He was ahead of every Hurricane in 5v5 scoring rate! This is the player you call a PP specialist.

 

[TheDawnOfANewTage]

Why did you enjoy your time there? I assume you've spent considerable time to be able to make such a bold statement.

Don’t take it personally, Buffalo isn’t to everyone’s tastes either. Columbus was ok, just far from my favorite, and Winnipeg’s weather is like Buffalo but with no nostalgia for me.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I think you might have misunderstood the stats.

The EV offense and EV defense - both of which are okayish numbers very close to the median player - are separated from finishing ability, penalties, etc... but finishing and those other stats also apply to 5v5.

So Laine's 5v5 impacts are actually very good, probably above 90th percentile, if you include finishing. I would assume it's better than his 5v4 impacts, which I doubt register because he didn't elevate Columbus' PP at all. It was awful before he arrived and it still is.

Check out Laine's career progression in point scoring rate at 5v5.

Compare Laine's scoring rates in 2021-22 (2.53 P/60) and 2022-23 (2.24 P/60) to what Hurricanes players scored in those same years. He was ahead of every Hurricane in 5v5 scoring rate! This is the player you call a PP specialist.

Below 50% means below average. That isn’t a guy you pay almost 9 million to be below 50% for the majority of the game.

 

[majormajor]

Below 50% means below average. That isn’t a guy you pay almost 9 million

His 5v5 impacts in those charts have to be above 91%, that's how he gets an overall rating of 91% (his 5v4 was worse).

You could have just said "sorry I misunderstood" but I suppose I understand why that's difficult to say.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

His 5v5 impacts in those charts have to be above 91%, that's how he gets an overall rating of 91% (his 5v4 was worse).

You could have just said "sorry I misunderstood" but I suppose I understand why that's difficult to say.

I don’t think you understand those charts

 

[majormajor]

I don’t think you understand those charts

Explain to me how Laine gets a 91st percentile rating if his PP rating is 76th percentile.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

Explain to me how Laine gets a 91st percentile rating if his PP rating is 76th percentile.

War is measured separately. That isn’t a combined rating of the other breakdowns.

Wins Above Replacement, or WAR, is a statistical model designed to estimate the individual impact a player has had on his team in a number of ways, including by creating scoring chances for himself and his linemates at even strength and the powerplay, by finishing those chances, by preventing his opponent from getting scoring chances at even strength and the penalty kill, and by drawing more penalties than he takes. The model does this by using a technique called RAPM to isolate for a player’s teammates, opponents, deployment, zone starts, and other external factors that might affect their on-ice results.

How Do I Read the Cards?​

Hockey fans have a good idea of how many goals or points is “good” or “elite” - 30 goals is a great season, 50 is elite, etc. The same isn’t true for WAR for pretty much anybody, even the most stats-savvy. To deal with this, instead of putting the raw numbers on the cards, I use percentiles. If a forward is 98% in EV Offence, for example, that means they rank higher than 98% of their peers in that stat - they’re in the top 2%. It’s why blue = good, red = bad.

2022 JFreshHockey NHL Player Card Explainer

A step-by-step breakdown of how to understand all the stats on the JFreshHockey player cards.

jfresh.substack.com

I guess just saying i misunderstood is too tough to say, amirite

 

[majormajor]

War is measured separately. That isn’t a combined rating of the other breakdowns.

That's true. So how does Laine measure up better overall than 91% of his peers?

What is it coming from? What is he doing to derive that number?

 

[Indy18]

His 5v5 impacts in those charts have to be above 91%, that's how he gets an overall rating of 91% (his 5v4 was worse).

You could have just said "sorry I misunderstood" but I suppose I understand why that's difficult to say.

What was it like 2 years ago JFresh had to come out an explain his card to people who were shitting on him saying his metrics were terrible but JFresh had to explain that Laine is just an anomaly of a player with his finishing ability that he almost breaks his model and could require an asterisk to really explain what is going on with him?

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

That's true. So how does Laine measure up better overall than 91% of his peers?

What is it coming from? What is he doing to derive that number?

Its explained.

Overall WAR number doesn’t cover up he is below average in 5v5 play. A 9 million dollar player you have to hide in 5v5 play isn’t worth much

 

[Marioesque]

Laine elevates his teammates he plays with. I don't know what else to say.

He's had an incorrect reputation for so long. And I think it has hurt his play because he almost tries to be a Barkov instead of using what makes him special. And no matter how good of a two way impact he provides, some people refuse to acknowledge it and just stick to the old insults.

 

[majormajor]

Its explained.

Overall WAR number doesn’t cover up he is below average in 5v5 play. A 9 million dollar player you have to hide in 5v5 play isn’t worth much

You haven't explained to me how Laine gets an overall 91% rating. You're trying really hard to avoid admitting how good he is at 5v5.

The guy had a higher 5v5 scoring rate than anyone on the Canes for two years prior to his concussion this year.

 

[Neutrinos]

To the Kings for Kempe, Kaliyev, Turcotte, and a 2nd rd pick

Blake then signs Laine to an 8-year extension


EDIT: Looks like not everyone got the joke...

 

[Marioesque]

To the Kings for Kempe, Kaliyev, Turcotte, and a 2nd rd pick

Blake then signs Laine to an 8-year extension

That's the most realistic sounding thing I have seen so far. I think CBJ takes that, I think Laine takes that.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

You haven't explained to me how Laine gets an overall 91% rating. You're trying really hard to avoid admitting how good he is at 5v5.

The guy had a higher 5v5 scoring rate than anyone on the Canes for two years prior to his concussion this year.

Read the link. Just say you don’t understand and we can move on

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

Somewhere that's not a hockey spotlight.

But I think suiters for him would be Utah, Carolina, Seattle or Chicago. Colorado might be another place considering I think he could use a right-handed centreman but the issue is the cap crunch. But what he needs more is the right coach to put him in the right direction.

I think Detroit should give him a chance though.

 

[Fistfullofbeer]

Somewhere that's not a hockey spotlight.

But I think suiters for him would be Utah, Carolina, Seattle or Chicago. Colorado might be another place considering I think he could use a right-handed centreman but the issue is the cap crunch. But what he needs more is the right coach to put him in the right direction.

I think Detroit should give him a chance though.

I definitely think Seattle would show some interest, but I expect them to balk at the cost of landing him. I understand that he could be a big impact player, but there are so many IFs involved that I doubt Seattle would want to give up anything of significance at the level of risk involved for an 8.7M cap player.

 

[majormajor]

Read the link. Just say you don’t understand and we can move on

I'm not asking for an explanation of how advanced stats work.

I want you to explain to me what Patrik Laine does on the ice to merit a 91% overall rating, especially since his 5v4 scoring isn't much above average.

 

[Nikishin Go Boom]

I'm not asking for an explanation of how advanced stats work.

I want you to explain to me what Patrik Laine does on the ice to merit a 91% overall rating, especially since his 5v4 scoring isn't much above average.

so you want me to explain it but don’t? Just pose your question to the RAPM folks for a breakdown

 

[HabsWhiteKnightLOL]

lol Laine is not getting multiple firsts because hes half retention.

 

[majormajor]

I definitely think Seattle would show some interest, but I expect them to balk at the cost of landing him. I understand that he could be a big impact player, but there are so many IFs involved that I doubt Seattle would want to give up anything of significance at the level of risk involved for an 8.7M cap player.

With only a two year commitment, Laine is one of the least risky big names that we could add. I think of it like a two year tryout. If Laine fits then we have a long term building block piece. If he doesn't, oh well.

I agree that we're not moving prospects or picks for him. The Jackets would want (as I say in every Kraken trade thread) Bjorkstrand or Larsson, that is where it gets tricky. He is significantly younger than them but they are more proven fits and I'd ordinarily say no. It depends on Ron Francis' time horizon.

I'm still on the fence about Laine to the Kraken but I think the case is stronger than most admit, given where the Kraken are and how grim the UFA/ "go for it" and "go it slow"/ rebuild options are for us.

 

[KingsOfCali25]

To the Kings for Kempe, Kaliyev, Turcotte, and a 2nd rd pick

Blake then signs Laine to an 8-year extension

Not even in the realm of possibilities. Stick to hoping Edmonton has any chance left in the playoffs.

That's the most realistic sounding thing I have seen so far. I think CBJ takes that, I think Laine takes that.

He's an Edmonton fan and wants LA to suffer even more. LA never makes that offer. Remove Kempe and Turcotte and LA might think about it with a cap dump added with retention on Laine.

 

[majormajor]

so you want me to explain it but don’t? Just pose your question to the RAPM folks for a breakdown

Ignore RAPM and the components of advanced stats. What attributes on the ice does Patrik Laine have, his skillset, his effect on the game, that gives him a 91% overall rating?

Or tell me how what you call a "below average 5v5 player" ends up with a higher 5v5 scoring rate than everyone on the Carolina Hurricanes?

 

[Marioesque]

Not even in the realm of possibilities. Stick to hoping Edmonton has any chance left in the playoffs.


He's an Edmonton fan and wants LA to suffer even more. LA never makes that offer. Remove Kempe and Turcotte and LA might think about it with a cap dump added with retention on Laine.

Yeah didn't think that LA would make that offer. Kempe and a 2nd or something like that would be reasonable.

 

[majormajor]

Not even in the realm of possibilities. Stick to hoping Edmonton has any chance left in the playoffs.


He's an Edmonton fan and wants LA to suffer even more. LA never makes that offer. Remove Kempe and Turcotte and LA might think about it with a cap dump added with retention on Laine.

I agree it is terrible for LA.

The realistic part is that Rob Blake makes bad trades.

Yeah didn't think that LA would make that offer. Kempe and a 2nd or something like that would be reasonable.

Kempe is too consistently good to be involved in a reasonable trade for Laine.