Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[cbjthrowaway]

Sounds like you are agreeing with what I have been saying this entire time. Although, I don’t think decent is the right word for his EV offense.

not to be the 'long post guy' but i have some thoughts

first, the part you didn't bold ("useful and effective player who is extremely good at doing things that are really hard to do") is still pretty important lol

second, what i'm saying is that the public-sphere models tend to overstate how much impact individual skaters have on the on-ice events that these models use.

a good player who plays big minutes on a bad team is going to come off worse in these cards than an average player who plays sheltered minutes on a really good team. case in point:




the ducks were really good when montour came up (105 points in 16-17, 101 points in 17-18), then became bad (80 points in 18-19) and sent him to an even worse team (lotto buffalo) with a bad, inexperienced coach.

then buffalo traded him to florida (good team!) and suddenly he was putting up elite underlying numbers.



did brandon montour start off good, then become bad, then remember how to be good again? that's more or less what jfresh was claiming, because he's not analyzing any of the 'analytics'

(there could be a chicken-vs-egg thing here: are bad teams bad because they only have bad players, or are players undervalued because they're on a bad team? i lean toward the latter because of instances like this)

as for how this applies to patrik laine, it's twofold:

1. the jackets have been a bad team for laine's entire time here, which has been a factor in other columbus players "exceeding expectations" after going to good teams (i.e. gavrikov)
2. laine's whole schtick is that he throws off the xG curve by having such crazy finishing talent, meaning the projections undersell him as his actual production outpaces his theoretical production.

to that last point, he was middle-of-the-pack on the jackets last year in 5v5 iGF/60, but was their best lineup regular in GF% (actual > theoretical). he was also their best lineup regular in CF% and SF% and was one of the league's best forwards in passes leading to high-danger chances iirc.

so, relative to the rest of the league his 5v5 microstats are mediocre. but relative to his team he was the best, and he played on a bad team, which is an environmental variable. (as is the jackets putrid power play, which is another rant entirely)

the other lesson to take from the montour example is that florida took a good, flawed player and didn't try to change or 'fix' him. he still didn't have great defensive impacts, but they let be aggressive offensively and play his game and put him in a situation (deployment + partner) that would maximize the good and minimize the bad.

florida did the same thing with anthony duclair, who… went to a bad team and is now struggling. huh, weird how that works.

the point here is that smart teams figure out how to get the most out of these kinds of players, and bad teams get negative value because they're fixated on 'fixing' them. which is what torts tried to do, and what vincent is now trying.

 

[Cowumbus]

first, the part you didn't bold ("useful and effective player who is extremely good at doing things that are really hard to do") is still pretty important lol

I don’t agree with that.

second, what i'm saying is that the public-sphere models tend to overstate how much impact individual skaters have on the on-ice events that these models use.

a good player who plays big minutes on a bad team is going to come off worse in these cards than an average player who plays sheltered minutes on a really good team. case in point:

That’s just not true. And one example does not close the case on it. Eichel had better WAR player cards on terrible Sabres teams than he does in Vegas. His last 3 seasons in Buffalo were great.

Keep in mind to your point, Laine HAS been getting sheltered. He has 3 seasons playing 1st line minutes, none of them higher than an 86 WAR. 2023 was 86, 2022 was 63, and 2020 in WPG he had an 82. Here is how he compares to Eichel (keep in mind, Eichel has always played top line minutes):

 

[cbjthrowaway]

I don’t agree with that.

but the chart you posted had him in the 90th+ percentile for finishing. so if you're putting stock in the chart, you're agreeing that he is elite at the most difficult thing in the game. if you don't think that's an important part of defining laine as a player, i don't know what to tell you.

That’s just not true. And one example does not close the case on it. Eichel had better WAR player cards on terrible Sabres teams than he does in Vegas. His last 3 seasons in Buffalo were great.
View attachment 805608

eichel is a superstar-level player. those guys are almost always more insulated from the environmental effects.

they're not always insulated from it. wanna go on a fun roller coaster ride?




kings record in those seasons:

• 17-18: 45-29-8 (98 points) -- doughty good!
• 18-19: 31-42-9 (71 points) -- doughty bad!
• 19-20: 29-35-6 (64 points) -- doughty bad again!

…and in these seasons:

• 20-21: 21-28-7 (49 points) (covid-shortened)
• 21-22: 44-27-11 (99 points)
• 22-23: 47-25-10 (104 points) -- doughty elite again!

did drew doughty go from being a very good player to being a very bad player, and then back to very good, over a six-year span? or are these charts more a product of the la kings going through that trajectory as a team? (hint: it's the latter)

some teams provide more favorable environments than others. some teams are smart with how they utilize players who have big strengths and weaknesses.

florida is both. they take flawed-but-talented players (montour, duclair, huberdeau), lean on their strengths, and insulate their weaknesses. they have an elite 1C and an aggressive system that encourages forwards to use their skill and defensemen to jump up in the rush.

suddenly, those flawed guys are getting $10m+ valuations on dom's player cards. the ones who benefit the most from that setup fall apart when they leave it (huberdeau, duclair). the ones who don't benefit from it as much (weegar) maintain their profile.

columbus, on the other hand, is neither. it's a harsh environment (gavrikov's stats took a big jump when he went to LA) and they don't tailor player usage to skill very well.

as for how this applies to laine (and others like boqvist, kj to an extent, etc) – i'm saying they can pull a lot more out of him if they use him right. you're saying you want a team full of guys who can't be used wrong.

it's the florida approach vs the john tortorella mindset – both can work. there's not really a wrong answer, except for whatever the hell the blue jackets are trying to do right now lol

 

[Cowumbus]

but the chart you posted had him in the 90th+ percentile for finishing. so if you're putting stock in the chart, you're agreeing that he is elite at the most difficult thing in the game. if you don't think that's an important part of defining laine as a player, i don't know what to tell you.
ll the blue jackets are trying to do right now lol

“useful and effective”

Can he score goals on the PP? Yes. When he’s not scoring goals does he help the team in any other way? No, not really.

Effective sometimes, useful rarely. We’d be a better team with someone like Hyman than Laine.

 

[Marioesque]

“useful and effective”

Can he score goals on the PP? Yes. When he’s not scoring goals does he help the team in any other way? No, not really.

Didn't he have the best 5 on 5 +/- in the team last season? Statistically, he creates a lot of high danger scoring chances.

So is the issue mainly that he doesn't play any PK?

 

[majormajor]

i've clowned on jfresh plenty on this board, so i'll go ahead and ring this bell again: the 'analysis' part of analytics requires examination of context and understanding of how statistical principles work. simple data viz never tells the full story.

in this case, the statistical principle you're missing is outlier data and it's present in the form is his 20-21 season (the torts year). that undermines the intent of a three-year sample, because the outlier skews the dataset.

his WAR was in the 39th percentile that season. the year before (19-20) that he was ~70th%, then ~75th% in 21-22 and ~85th% in 22-23. clear which one is the outlier.

now, time to get a little bit 'inside baseball' about the twitter analytics stuff: public-sphere analytics don't do a good job of accounting for team factors. players who play limited minutes on good teams have heavily inflated 5v5 microstats, and players who play heavy minutes on bad teams have suppressed numbers. using publicly-available data to create a catch-all stat like WAR in a free-flowing sport like hockey is a fool's errand specifically because the data is too limited to account for those factors. hence dom saying he 'couldn't envision a scenario where brandon montour is successful' when buffalo was trying to trade him, but now saying he's an elite defenseman.

given that context, and accounting for the outlier data, laine comes across as a useful and effective player who is extremely good at things that are really hard to do (scoring goals, creating high-danger chances), decent at some things (5v5 offense) and bad at others (5v5 defense).

analytics isn't just "player x good, player y bad" -- the utility of analytics is figuring out how to maximize a player's talent/effectiveness into on-ice production. laine's analytical profile gives a clear roadmap of how to do that (build the pp around him, put him with two-way forwards at 5v5 who can get him the puck).

john tortorella didn't follow that roadmap (i get why, because laine was still really young and torts thought he could be more, but it didn't work). pascal vincent isn't following it. brad larsen did, and laine was basically a ppg player under him. not a mystery why!

I agree on the fickleness of the public advanced stats, but with Laine you can't just mentally delete his bad seasons, his teams have to live with them. It's not an outlier when it's three of his nine seasons that have gone horrifically bad for him and dragged his teams down.

“useful and effective”

Can he score goals on the PP? Yes. When he’s not scoring goals does he help the team in any other way? No, not really.

Effective sometimes, useful rarely. We’d be a better team with someone like Hyman than Laine.

Last year Laine was doing many things to help his team beyond scoring goals.

I just don't care anymore, the upside doesn't pay off the downside risk.

 

[Forepar]

I agree on the fickleness of the public advanced stats, but with Laine you can't just mentally delete his bad seasons, his teams have to live with them. It's not an outlier when it's three of his nine seasons that have gone horrifically bad for him and dragged his teams down.



Last year Laine was doing many things to help his team beyond scoring goals.

I just don't care anymore, the upside doesn't pay off the downside risk.

"I just don't care anymore, the upside doesn't pay off the downside risk."

Best synopsis yet.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

The way I see it, Laine fans who are only here because the Jackets are the team he's currently under contract with should be siding with Jackets fans who'd like to see Laine traded. OK maybe you feel like that makes Patty look bad, but it would probably be the best thing for the player at this juncture.

 

[koteka]

The way I see it, Laine fans who are only here because the Jackets are the team he's currently under contract with should be siding with Jackets fans who'd like to see Laine traded. OK maybe you feel like that makes Patty look bad, but it would probably be the best thing for the player at this juncture.

I had assumed that although they had come here for Laine, they will choose to stay for our friendly atmosphere and lively well-focused discussions on hockey that never spill into the wrong thread.

 

[Napoli]

I'd like to see Laine given another year because I think this year has been a rough one to judge him on. He should of never been a center, that just screamed desperation. The injuries have added to an already bad year.

The gripes with Laine are legitimate, anyone who says different isn't living in reality.

I'd still like one more year to see him recoup his value. Shipping him out now doesn't make sense, this team isn't winning anything, might as well hope he returns to form.

Healthy Laine with the right usage is a dangerous player, he needs to figure out how to stay healthy and move his f***ing feet.

Selling now is just a lose lose unless you think this team is ready to win next year. Barring a good trade for us, keep him and see what he does the first half of the year, then reassess.

 

[cbjthrowaway]

had they tried to trade laine last summer i bet he would've been a pretty valuable piece, considering the two back-to-back good seasons and teams having more flexiblity in the summer.

trading him now, though? he's barely played this year thanks to injury, with much different/less favorable deployment, and hasn't gone on one of his patented hot streaks, AND on top of that, teams have very little cap flexibility.

i get that they want to preserve opportunities for some of the young wingers, but this feels like a situation where they should focus on rebuilding his value, especially given that trading him is a major undertaking that you probably don't want a lame duck GM to oversee.

 

[VT]

The way I see it, Laine fans who are only here because the Jackets are the team he's currently under contract with should be siding with Jackets fans who'd like to see Laine traded. OK maybe you feel like that makes Patty look bad, but it would probably be the best thing for the player at this juncture.

Interesting, and how many are there? Don't count me out, I've been a Columbus fan since 2007, 17 years now.

You know, there's a different yardstick for him. What is forgiven to others is not forgiven to him, what he does well is downplayed. The consequences of injuries are forgotten. And every player will be treated like that, everything will be O.K.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

Interesting, and how many are there?

I don’t know. I wouldn’t even venture to guess. But to think that the number is zero is foolish.

 

[Marioesque]

Interesting, and how many are there? Don't count me out, I've been a Columbus fan since 2007, 17 years now.

You know, there's a different yardstick for him. What is forgiven to others is not forgiven to him, what he does well is downplayed. The consequences of injuries are forgotten. And every player will be treated like that, everything will be O.K.

Yeah exactly what I have a problem with. If people are going to argue "he's often injured so he should be traded" then same applies to Werenski and Jenner who have missed a lot of time the last few seasons. If the argument is that he loses the puck sometimes, any NHL player can be critiqued for this, Johnny does it daily and more often at least this season. It's not a huge problem as long as it doesn't amount to goals against.

I just watched Avs the other night, Rantanen had a couple of silly looking fumbles of the puck where he just basically lost it to opponent in straight skating, overhandling the puck. He also had 5pts in the game so their fanbase isn't calling for him to be traded ASAP even if puck fumbles happen. They happen to players who try to create a lot. They don't happen as much to people who dump to corners after crossing center line.

I personally don't think getting rid of players at their lowest value is good business. I also don't think that double standards in player evaluation is useful for fans or good business.

If the belief is that the injuries will just keep piling up at recent rate, then I understand the opinion. What I don't understand is the belief, as in his injuries are not one thing reoccurring but several different things that usually would injure any other player. People who believe in luck might think that it's just something that will keep happening to him. To me it's variance, because I don't believe in luck. And variance would mean he'll also have longer stretches healthy. I'd be much more weary about the injuries, if it was a chronic issue that keeps repeating. Those end careers or shorten them, but he doesn't seem to have one of those.

 

[stevo61]

Interesting, and how many are there? Don't count me out, I've been a Columbus fan since 2007, 17 years now.

You know, there's a different yardstick for him. What is forgiven to others is not forgiven to him, what he does well is downplayed. The consequences of injuries are forgotten. And every player will be treated like that, everything will be O.K.

Sounds like a bunch of bull to me. Most were all over Werenski for not being up to speed. Most are tired of counting on 30 games of no Laine or garbage Laine, in no way is that unfair. When you make 8.7mil you are judged differently, way she goes.
I dont think 99.9% would be upset if Laine came back guns firing and plays like 40 goal Laine but most of us wont be holding our breath

 

[Marioesque]

Sounds like a bunch of bull to me. Most were all over Werenski for not being up to speed.

There's absolutely no group of people suggesting we should trade Werenski because of his injuries, or Jenner for that matter (makes a bit less of course). Or people getting tired of waiting for them to stay healthy longer.

So it's definitely not bull. It's how this goes. If the standards were the same for all, we'd be having this same argument in Zach and Boones threads. We're not, so there is a double standard.

 

[stevo61]

There's absolutely no group of people suggesting we should trade Werenski because of his injuries, or Jenner for that matter (makes a bit less of course). Or people getting tired of waiting for them to stay healthy longer.

So it's definitely not bull. It's how this goes. If the standards were the same for all, we'd be having this same argument in Zach and Boones threads. We're not, so there is a double standard.

There is definitely a group that would entertain trading him. Regardless my point is people harping on his level of play coming back from injury. But besides all that Werenski is much more important to our future. So through contracts and other issues its easy to see why they have to listen to Laine offers.

Boone gives 100% all the time and makes less than half of Laine, of course there is some level of double standard.

 

[Marioesque]

There is definitely a group that would entertain trading him. Regardless my point is people harping on his level of play coming back from injury. But besides all that Werenski is much more important to our future. So through contracts and other issues its easy to see why they have to listen to Laine offers

I'd imagine they'll listen to any offers realistically, but someone like Laine might be easier to justify moving than the other two. I still don't think it's a good move, unless of course the offer is really good but you can't get a really good offer after this stretch of injuries. Best to let him get back to game shape and help the team on the ice and gain value back. When he plays healthy, he's good enough to justify his spot so then it doesn't make sense to trade him anymore. Unless you use a belief system and basically bet on injuries just piling on and sell low because of that fear. That's semi-understandable but I wouldn't call it reasonable.

 

[koteka]

There's absolutely no group of people suggesting we should trade Werenski because of his injuries, or Jenner for that matter (makes a bit less of course). Or people getting tired of waiting for them to stay healthy longer.

So it's definitely not bull. It's how this goes. If the standards were the same for all, we'd be having this same argument in Zach and Boones threads. We're not, so there is a double standard.

I posted this week that I am open to trading anyone but Fantilli.

Here are some posts this week about trading Boone. His injury history is mentioned.

Consider me on this train. He will be in a state of decline before this team is ready to contend. Let's just go all in and do this right.

as a cbj fan i have a fondness for boone jenner as a person and a player, but i can set that aside and recognize that:

1. the team is entering a new chapter with new core players
2. given age curves + boone's injury history, his on-ice contributions are likely to decline
3. trading him would bring back significant assets, free up roster space, open up cap, and force a hard culture reset in the room – four important boxes a new FO regime would look to check off
4. his leadership has been spoken about glowingly, but they have been one of the worst teams in the league under his captaincy and rumors of them having a 'country club atmosphere' going into this season

it's possible to think highly of a player, be immensely thankful for what they've done for your team, and still recognize that a trade is the right lever to pull.

the jackets have made similar hard decisions before. the atkinson trade felt like a gut-punch for the same reasons, but it was the right move for that roster.

it feels like this team needs to definitively close the previous chapter of cbj hockey and fully embrace fantilli as the face of the franchise. if you squint, you can also see a clear future leadership core with him, sillinger and mateychuk.

in the short-term, they have some journeyman vets (gudbranson, danforth) and stars (gaudreau, werenski, laine) who could step up as leaders in the interim. but it's clear where this team is headed, and as much as we all love boone, it's hard (for me anyway) to see him being a part of that in the long term.

 

[Marioesque]

Boone gives 100% all the time and makes less than half of Laine, of course there is some level of double standard.

I think Laine also gives 100% all the time, but just like Boone after return, sometimes the 100% isn't outstanding because they're just back from injury. That happens to all of them, they're humans.

But definitely Boones price point makes his contract worth more so I wouldn't be thinking of trading him either.

If the reasoning was about the price tag then we'd be discussing Johnny, because he makes the most and doesn't produce as much as Laine or Jenner do with same ice time. But there's no "trade johnny" movement either, which there shouldn't be.

We just need our main guys healthy, the rest of the roster is growing to meet the need for depth but we need these guys at their A game on a playoff run and there's a chance for a cup. I don't see it happening without these guys.

 

[CBJx614]

Saw this earlier but I wouldn't say it's exactly credible, but also wouldn't doubt any of it.

 

[MissADD]

Saw this earlier but I wouldn't say it's exactly credible, but also wouldn't doubt any of it.

View attachment 810955

I am sure outside of the young guys and certain vets (like Z, Johnny, Severson, maybe Boone) they are listening to offers for almost anyone. Just because you are listening doesn't mean you are selling, especially in regards to Laine. Just listen to what people will offer and see if it blows you away.

 

[CBJx614]

I am sure outside of the young guys and certain vets (like Z, Johnny, Severson, maybe Boone) they are listening to offers for almost anyone. Just because you are listening doesn't mean you are selling, especially in regards to Laine. Just listen to what people will offer and see if it blows you away.

Yeah I think provy might be the only one he would actually "shop", I just don't think we have the long term cap space to give him what I would imagine he's going to demand in FA.

 

[Crede777]

Yeah I think provy might be the only one he would actually "shop", I just don't think we have the long term cap space to give him what I would imagine he's going to demand in FA.

I bet he's shopping Elvis. But I think we all take that as a given. Even if JD has said otherwise...

 

[Marioesque]

Yeah I think provy might be the only one he would actually "shop", I just don't think we have the long term cap space to give him what I would imagine he's going to demand in FA.

Or the need. He's useful for this season but we could hope to fill in that hole with Mateychuk next season.

Team has plenty of cap space, until it becomes some kind of an issue I wouldn't be too eager to shop anyone from starting lineup except maybe Provorov. Or Gudy.