Me too. I'd prefer him healthy and elite. He probably does too but there's these Andersson's and Lagesson's who disagree.
Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)
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Me too. I'd prefer him healthy and elite. He probably does too but there's these Andersson's and Lagesson's who disagree.
Double-Shift Lasse
Just post better
You’re saying that it’s all on the coaches when it comes to when Laine is playing poorly?
No. Mostly his issues are injuries obviously. When coaches put him on RD in PP that's a coaching problem
Cowumbus
Registered User
G/60 and P/60 5v5 of Laine
vs
90th ranked (≈ 1st line) forward’s G/60 and P/60 5v5 of that season
*minimum of 50 mins TOI
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the issue with this chart is that it equates 18 games this year (14 of which were after the concussion, and ~50% of which were him playing center) to 50+ games in the prior two years (only two of which were at center).
no one on this board is saying that the laine we've seen this season is the same laine from the last two years (who, per this chart, was a legit top line forward over that span).
he's struggled this year but the whole point is that time to heal + his normal usage should spur him to return to his 21-22 and 22-23 form, which is a hell of a player.
out of curiosity, how would that chart look if you ran it for jeff skinner? because that's the roadmap for getting a scoring winger out of a prolonged slump.
the great thing about this chart is that it aligns with what i've been saying: that the last two seasons before this one were the two best of laine's career.
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I don't know if that was the intention of posting the chart, but you read it correctly and got the right conclusions from it.
Thanks Cowumbus for proving our points. Very friendly!
Cowumbus
Registered User
Your point is that he scores at a fringe 1st line player level 50% of the time while 5on5? And we pay him 8.7 million to do so, while providing nothing else when he’s not scoring…
Scoring above the dotted lines means you are a first line player, scoring below that you are not. Laine has scored goals/60 as a 1st line talent 3x, and put up first liner points/60 4 times. Over 8 seasons.
And how about 2018/19 82GP, 2019/20 68GP, 2020/21 45GP? The point of this chart is to show Laine is not consistent, and when he “is off his game” the swings in his numbers are huge. He’s not really an elite goal scorer anymore.
Natural Stat Trick.
Cowumbus
Registered User
but you're the one saying he's replaceable, so the obvious next question is: how do the 5v5 scoring rates for marchenko, texier and chinakhov compare? because i'd be shocked if it's close.
the chart itself doesn't show a player who has "wild" year-over-year swings in his game, it shows that his 5v5 production, specifically, dipped in his age 20, 21 and 22 seasons. but there's like, actual context to all of this too that you're ignoring because it's not on the chart.
three things that are completely normal in the NHL:
1. scoring-focused players not fitting with torts
2. young players struggling initially after changing teams
3. players breaking out in their age-23 season
the chart shows all three of those things happening with laine.
as for the winnipeg years, well… it's a 5v5 chart. he was the most lethal part of an elite power play during those years. you pointed to 18-19 as a bad season – he wasn't a bad player that year, he was the top goal scorer (15 goals) on a playoff team's top-five power play unit.
his reputation in winnipeg was always buoyed by his heavy power play usage + the fact that their highly-effective unit was built around his shot. in columbus, he's become a far better player at 5v5, but the power play has stunk and his shot hasn't been utilized as much in its construction.
if the 22-23 version of laine was on the 18-19 jets, he could've cleared 100 points.
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patrik laine: two full seasons since 17-18 where his production was substantially less than that of a first-line caliber player.
jeff skinner: two full seasons since 17-18 where his production was substantially less than that of a first-line caliber player.
also worth noting that the first season in that graph is skinner's age-25 season, which is how old laine is right now. so 1) there's room for laine to grow and 2) streaky scoring wingers with clunky usage can be 'fixed' with better usage, linemates, and time to gel.
no one is saying this.
statements like "pascal vincent's usage of laine is compounding his problems" and "laine poor 20-21 season was because he was a bad fit for a john tortorella-coached team" are reasonable. it's not the same thing at all.
you can advocate for a player's usage to be more aligned to their skillset/strengths and still acknowledge that they aren't playing well.
When he's healthy and properly utilized he's an elite 1st line player. When he isn't healthy or properly utilized, he isn't a 1st line player.
This isn't a new discovery about Laine or players/humans in general.
I expect more health and proper utilization and that makes him elite, we need that.
You seem to expect that he'll always perform at the level that he did in like 5 games after returning from concussion. Or when he has previously played recovering from injury.
The only reason why I even bring up Gaudreau is the fact that you're willing to completely overlook a bigger cap hit with worse on ice production, maybe because he has avoided injuries and been mediocre at best without that reason.
Lots of teams have much worse contracts, look at Huberdeau. It's not a new thing that an elite player slumps, or gets injured. McDavid lost calder because of injury, so did Laine and now Bedard is injured. At the start of this season, McDavid looked awful for the first 5-10 games until he became himself again.
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Cowumbus
Registered User
I expect Chinakhov, Johnson, Marchenko to continue to get better. I don’t expect Laine to develop much more than what he is. Keep in mind the salary cap. Which is why I said there might be better options than Laine for this team.
I have a question, had one of Jenner, Gaudreau, Marchenko, Chinakhov, Johnson and Texier concussion this season, Gaudreau, Marchenko and Chinakhov change positions? That's just me on a side note, since they're comparing stats like that. 
Btw, Marchenko had SH16,0% last season, Chinakhov has SH17,9% byt long had more than 18%.
Btw, Marchenko had SH16,0% last season, Chinakhov has SH17,9% byt long had more than 18%.
Thanks again proving my point that we do not have better options.
And it's weird to expect a 23 year old to get a lot better but a 25 has reached his ceiling.
I expect all of them to get better. But I don't expect any of them to reach the level Laine can play at when healthy, would be fantastic though. They haven't shown any signs of such development curve, although I expect Johnson to become a 1st liner and the russian 2 will be excellent 2nd liners for a long time, in a deep team.
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Cowumbus
Registered User
These are very helpful, thanks. I'm assuming you graphed it yourself? This is the exact graph I wish I could pop up from NST or Moneypuck.
And yes I do think it convincingly shows that we have many options to replace Laine.
I understand that the Laine fans don't think it shows that, but they of course don't count his low points on the graph.
Cowumbus
Registered User
Yeah I pulled the data into a csv file then plotted on excel.
If you take like a 10 game sample of Laine at his lowest and some of these others at their highest, you can almost make them reach him in those short periods of time.
But I really, really fail to see how that would qualify as anything but cherry picking. And I don't understand why anyone would prefer cherry picked data.
It definitely doesn't show that we have better options for top 9 wingers, if you can explain how it does I'd be interested in seeing logic behind it. Just kinda impossible.
Laine had more points at 18 years old than Marchenko, Chinakhov or Texier have had in their entire careers. These players are 1-3 years younger than Laine
Marchenko broke the CBJ rookie record with 21 goals last SEASON. Laine scored 18 goals in a month once.
Just stop. Different levels of talent entirely
Cowumbus
Registered User
Help me to understand why you are saying this when I provided 8 seasons worth of data? The 2024 season is the lowest GP for Laine, and it is 18GP.
What data is valid to use? Please let me know what data to compare in order to get the facts.
My logic:
Step 1 – look at Laine’s last 5 years of production:
- Count of 5v5 G/60 seasons at a first line rate: 1 (20%)
- Count of 5v5 P/60 seasons at a first line rate: 2 (40%)
- 2021/22
- G/60 (90th) is at a low-end first line rate (For perspective Roslovic in 21/22 had more G/60 and total goals 5v5, with less ATOI)
- P/60 (54th) is at an average first line level (this is good)
- He had his 2nd best 1stAssist/60 season
- He had the highest 2ndAssist/60 in his career (his 1stAssist/60 and 2ndAssist/60 were both 0.74)
- 2022/23
- G/60 is not at a low-end first line rate
- P/60 (87th) is at a low-end first line rate (For perspective Daniel Sprong had more P/60 and total points 5v5, with less ATOI)
- 2022/23
- He had his best 1stAssist/60 season – good job Laine
- Had his 4th best 2ndAssist/60
- 2022/23
- Count of 5v5 G/60 seasons at a first line rate: 3 (37.5%)
- Laine has yet to meet either of his high 5v5 G/60 values set his first 2 seasons
- Since his first two strong seasons, Laine has averaged around 0.82 G/60, which is below a fringe 1st line level
- We pay 8.75 million dollars for this player, the 28th highest paid forward
- The numbers indicate that Laine’s G/60 is below the low end first liner rate 5v5
- The numbers indicate that Laine’s P/60 is not consistent,
- Very much related to 2ndAssists (if you look at Laine his 1stAssists/60 and 2ndAssists/60 numbers are very close every year, unlike Gaudreau who has 1stAssists/60 > 2ndAssists/60)
- It can either be at a first line level, or much lower.
Step 6 – Consider the other options
- Honestly wish I had the energy (after having to go research all the above) to write more on this but I feel that you won’t be willing to listen anyway.
- This is where I would talk about the other player’s scoring rates, value away from the puck, availability, quality of linemates, chemistry with other players and cap hits.
You are correct, they are younger than Laine and Laine had more points at age 18.
6 years ago. McCann scored 40 once.
It is what it is.
“We don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone” - Herb Brooks
How's the ignore going?
You provided 8 seasons of Laine being better than the ones you say are "better options".
It was pretty self explanatory, his usual level of play is demonstrably higher than the ones you compared to. Like a lot higher. When he is healthy he's worth the contract. When he isn't, he isn't. Nobody is. That's why teams have insurance.
If you want to argue that he gets injured more I'll take that and agree with you, he has in fact been injured more than the compared, but they haven't player 8 seasons either.
I don't think there is any special injury thing that happens to Laine alone. When you evaluate a player, you should consider their entire body of work. I've seen every injury Laine has had, and there's 2 that are the same (concussions), others are not like one thing, so it's not a reoccurring, reinjuring something that never will become 100% again.
That's why I don't think his injuries or the dip in play when in recovery as a huge thing, and that's the ONLY thing you want to focus on.
When he is healthy, he is a far more productive player and better value for the team than the ones you said were better. Unfortunately, with being elite comes being a target and he sure has been targeted and injured his fair share.
If you want me to evaluate his level through his injuries or recovery games, I refuse to do that because that's bad analysis. You can do bad analysis all you want, I'd feel dishonest if I tried to view a player through only their struggles and ignored the good. I'm not a believer, but bible had something right about bearing false witness.
When I watch the same game as you and I come out as a "Laine didn't do much of anything, was mediocre" you'll be like "worst.hockey player.ever, worst game performance in history of mankind, look at how he sucks". Meanwhile, the stats don't suppport your analysis either. Maybe you should start evaluating your method of evaluating players. I won't hold my breath though, people who evaluate with feelings first don't just become rational thinkers on request.
Maybe you should watch more hockey in general, get used to the idea that elite players aren't elite every day. I've watched oilers and avs this season and at the start McDavid was a ghost, Rantanen was a turnover/goal against machine. Especially when people are injured and come back, they often tend to take time to get back to full game speed. They look off. None of these "better options" are shielded from any of this. I have Marchenko in fantasy and he's been balls for a couple of weeks from production standpoint, before that he was productive. It hasn't looked good for the wunderRussians for a bit now. That's why the lines are changed.
Cowumbus
Registered User
I didn’t ignore you. I thought about it for sure, but I’ve never had to do it for anyone and didn’t think you deserved it. You’ve only voiced your opinion, nothing wrong with that.
Okay. I recently got hired to write code for statistics/data for an OEM. Only been doing it for a year though, they haven’t caught on yet I guess.
Maybe I’m out to lunch on this stuff, but I’m trying to provide you data that I feel shows my point and it feels as if all you’re trying to do is put me down; or hyperbolize my opinion on the matter.
will do my best
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