Help me to understand why you are saying this when
I provided 8 seasons worth of data? The 2024 season is the lowest GP for Laine, and it is 18GP.
What data is valid to use? Please let me know what data to compare in order to get
the facts.
My logic:
Step 1 – look at Laine’s last 5 years of production:
- Count of 5v5 G/60 seasons at a first line rate: 1 (20%)
- Count of 5v5 P/60 seasons at a first line rate: 2 (40%)
Step 2 – look at the two seasons people value most in Columbus:
- 2021/22
- G/60 (90th) is at a low-end first line rate (For perspective Roslovic in 21/22 had more G/60 and total goals 5v5, with less ATOI)
- P/60 (54th) is at an average first line level (this is good)
- He had his 2nd best 1stAssist/60 season
- He had the highest 2ndAssist/60 in his career (his 1stAssist/60 and 2ndAssist/60 were both 0.74)
- 2022/23
- G/60 is not at a low-end first line rate
- P/60 (87th) is at a low-end first line rate (For perspective Daniel Sprong had more P/60 and total points 5v5, with less ATOI)
- 2022/23
- He had his best 1stAssist/60 season – good job Laine
- Had his 4th best 2ndAssist/60
Step 3 – look at Laine’s entire career
- Count of 5v5 G/60 seasons at a first line rate: 3 (37.5%)
- Laine has yet to meet either of his high 5v5 G/60 values set his first 2 seasons
- Since his first two strong seasons, Laine has averaged around 0.82 G/60, which is below a fringe 1st line level
Step 4 – Consider his salary
- We pay 8.75 million dollars for this player, the 28th highest paid forward
- The numbers indicate that Laine’s G/60 is below the low end first liner rate 5v5
- The numbers indicate that Laine’s P/60 is not consistent,
- Very much related to 2ndAssists (if you look at Laine his 1stAssists/60 and 2ndAssists/60 numbers are very close every year, unlike Gaudreau who has 1stAssists/60 > 2ndAssists/60)
- It can either be at a first line level, or much lower.
Step 5 – Consider his injury history / oft-injured / injury-proneness
Step 6 – Consider the other options
- Honestly wish I had the energy (after having to go research all the above) to write more on this but I feel that you won’t be willing to listen anyway.
- This is where I would talk about the other player’s scoring rates, value away from the puck, availability, quality of linemates, chemistry with other players and cap hits.
You are correct, they are younger than Laine and Laine had more points at age 18.
6 years ago. McCann scored 40 once.
It is what it is.
“We don’t have enough talent to win on talent alone” - Herb Brooks
How's the ignore going?
You provided 8 seasons of Laine being better than the ones you say are "better options".
It was pretty self explanatory, his usual level of play is demonstrably higher than the ones you compared to. Like a lot higher. When he is healthy he's worth the contract. When he isn't, he isn't. Nobody is. That's why teams have insurance.
If you want to argue that he gets injured more I'll take that and agree with you, he has in fact been injured more than the compared, but they haven't player 8 seasons either.
I don't think there is any special injury thing that happens to Laine alone. When you evaluate a player, you should consider their entire body of work. I've seen every injury Laine has had, and there's 2 that are the same (concussions), others are not like one thing, so it's not a reoccurring, reinjuring something that never will become 100% again.
That's why I don't think his injuries or the dip in play when in recovery as a huge thing, and that's the ONLY thing you want to focus on.
When he is healthy, he is a far more productive player and better value for the team than the ones you said were better. Unfortunately, with being elite comes being a target and he sure has been targeted and injured his fair share.
If you want me to evaluate his level through his injuries or recovery games, I refuse to do that because that's bad analysis. You can do bad analysis all you want, I'd feel dishonest if I tried to view a player through only their struggles and ignored the good. I'm not a believer, but bible had something right about bearing false witness.
When I watch the same game as you and I come out as a "Laine didn't do much of anything, was mediocre" you'll be like "worst.hockey player.ever, worst game performance in history of mankind, look at how he sucks". Meanwhile, the stats don't suppport your analysis either. Maybe you should start evaluating your method of evaluating players. I won't hold my breath though, people who evaluate with feelings first don't just become rational thinkers on request.
Maybe you should watch more hockey in general, get used to the idea that elite players aren't elite every day. I've watched oilers and avs this season and at the start McDavid was a ghost, Rantanen was a turnover/goal against machine. Especially when people are injured and come back, they often tend to take time to get back to full game speed. They look off. None of these "better options" are shielded from any of this. I have Marchenko in fantasy and he's been balls for a couple of weeks from production standpoint, before that he was productive. It hasn't looked good for the wunderRussians for a bit now. That's why the lines are changed.