Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[Murky]

I didn't mention any corsi stats. Those are the goals results, how many the Jackets score and how many the opponents score.

I know. It was just another point and one that is often brought up about Laine. I am not arguing with you.

EDIT: But I see your point. I probably should not have quoted anyone. My bad.

 

[CBJx614]

That the team was better was why I showed the relative goals results (GF%Rel). The gap between Panarin's results (superstar) and his team results (good) was much bigger than the gap between Laine's results (even) and his team results (bad).


I didn't mention any corsi stats. Those are the goals results, how many the Jackets score and how many the opponents score.

That kinda relates to something I've been noticing when comparing Laine/Panarin. And part of why I feel like that offense/PP has been better since the offense has been re-shaped. Is that when Panarin was here it was as if our entire offense watched Panarin and waited to react to what he was going to do or we tried to force the offense to run through him.

Where as with Laine he's apart of it, but it doesn't seem like the other 4 guys on the ice are passing up good situations to force it to Laine. He's really good at making a nice play and then letting himself quietly back out into the high slot waiting for the one timer. It's something I wanted Panarin to do so bad but we relied on him entirely too much.

 

[Halberdier]

In two years as a Jacket Panarin carried his line to a 60% GF (a 3-2 score). 139GF to 94GA in 160 games. Just looking at this year, Laine is 34 GF to 33 GA in 43 games, basically even. Relative to their teams, Laine has a GF% 6.5 percentage points higher than the team without him. Panarin was 10.9 percentage points better than the team without him over the span of two years*. That's a different level of awesome.

* Those numbers are the GF% Rel, I'm not 100% sure if my interpretation is correct but it's at least very close to literally true. Everything is from naturalstattrick.

EDIT: No, I was wrong. It was the "Even Strength" stat, which is broken in Natural stat trick. So "even strength" includes "6-on-5" & "5-on-6".

If you include all situations, the goal differential for Laine is
63-46 (+17)

While CBJ is 210-234 (-24)


I think your methodology is fine, though limited to strictly 5-on-5.

Real even strength is 38-33 (+5) for Laine, empty net situations omitted.

 

[majormajor]

I am afraid your numbers are wrong, as those "5-on-5" stats (I guess you refer to 5-on-5 stats here) unfortunately includes 6-on-5 and 5-on-6 stats, if they have not fixed the stats since I last checked.

So I guess the real 5-on-5 stats are 28-23 (+5), which should be much better than the team average.

If you include all situations, the goal differential for Laine is
63-46 (+17)

While CBJ is 210-234 (-24)

Worse team finds it more often on 6-on-5 situation, and the best guys on the team will be scored against a lot with empty netters. Also worse team gets less 5-on-6 opportunities, and therefore less "freebies".

I think your methodology is fine, but I just guess that the numbers are off (I guess they are off for Panarin too).

What's your data source?

I can look into it but naturalstattrick's glossary claims that goalie pull situations go in ES but not in 5v5. So not sure what is up here.

 

[Halberdier]

What's your data source?

I can look into it but naturalstattrick's glossary claims that goalie pull situations go in ES but not in 5v5. So not sure what is up here.

Yes, I messed things up, it was rhe "ES" stat that was broken on Natural Stat Trick.

Eg. ES stat shows 44-43 for Laine, while real even strength (5-on-5, 4-on-4, 3-on-3) is 38-33.

 

[majormajor]

Yes, I messed things up, it was rhe "ES" stat that was broken on Natural Stat Trick.

Eg. ES stat shows 44-43 for Laine, while real even strength (5-on-5, 4-on-4, 3-on-3) is 38-33.

Yes I didn't quite have the time to net in the 4v4 and 3v3 scoring. It would help Laine's numbers to include it but might help Panarin's even more. If I remember correctly he was behind only McDavid and Draisaitl in OT scoring for the two years he was a Jacket.

 

[Halberdier]

Yes I didn't quite have the time to net in the 4v4 and 3v3 scoring. It would help Laine's numbers to include it but might help Panarin's even more. If I remember correctly he was behind only McDavid and Draisaitl in OT scoring for the two years he was a Jacket.

It's quite tedious to count "real ES". I do it by subtracting 5-on-6 & 6-on-5 from "ES" stats.

 

[Easternbull]

Realy looking forward to the Jets game on friday. Wonder how the crowd in Winnipeg will react? Patrik and Rosie will be pumped for sure . Hope Lowry matches Wheeler and Scheiffele against them.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

Kekalainen, who is one year deep into an organization “reset,” said bigger moves were always more likely to happen this summer, not at the deadline.

“The moves we’re looking to make are more offseason trades,” Kekalainen said. “Not a lot of teams this time of year, especially the ones who are gearing up for the playoffs, want to give up anything on their roster. We have plenty of prospects who are going to take a little time before they make an impact at the NHL level. So what we’d be looking for is a player who would be ready to make that impact right away.

“We thought there may be an outside chance that we could get into a deal that would help us down the stretch, but into the future also. But they just weren’t available right now, and we thought they wouldn’t be.”

One of the big moves the Blue Jackets hope to make is a contract extension with winger Patrik Laine, who has been on a serious tear the last two months. Sources told The Athletic on Monday that initial talks between the Blue Jackets and Laine’s agent have already begun.

No big trades, no surprise — Blue Jackets move Max Domi and keep eyes focused on the summer

The big moves are still to come, including a possible new contract for Patrik Laine.

theathletic.com

 

[NotCommitted]

There was a snippet in a Finnish paper where Kekäläinen gave a little comment on the Laine contract. Basically he said they've talked about it a bit and both parties seem to want a contract, but as always there's a lot that comes into it, mainly term and dollar value. If they can agree on those "they'll be together for a long time". In other words not much to report but it does seem they've begun to talk about it.

Just my speculation, but if Jarmo manages to convince him this team can contend within the next few years, I think they can get him locked up for 5 years or so. In CBJ's favour, they've shown great appreciation of, and commitment to him, after the Jets years that should feel pretty good and he should know there's never any guarantees how it works out with a team/coach. If Jarmo insists on 8, that might be more difficult, it would mean all of Laine's prime years. With a 5-year deal, he'd be a Jacket for long enough time to be part of getting this team to contending and have a couple good runs at it. He'd still be in his prime for the next contract, which could be max term (either with the Jackets or somewhere else) and get him into mid-30s, at which point he could retire or sign short term deals chasing for a cup. The way I see it, from Laine POV, either a 1 or 5 year deal makes the most sense career wise (given he has faith in the org).

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

In CBJ's favour, they've shown great appreciation of, and commitment to him,

Good post but I pulled this part out only to add to the conversation that it’s part of Rick Nash’s job to try and understand what each player values and to show that the org is committed to a positive work/personal environment in that regard, if I understand correctly. So if in fact that’s what at work here, Laine will indeed feel valued by the club, which should aid in negotiations.

 

[paragon]

Starting to look like the Bluejackets have solved their issue of players not wanting to stay here . Give Jd credit, also coach Larsen . JD Has brought a steadiness , calming presence , that there is an actual plan we are following now … and Larsen, the way he handled the Kivi situation showed what type of man he is and brought the room together , not to mention he’s brought in a top 10 offense , where players know they can play to their skill set , and even a game plan that focuses around utilizing their strengths .. Also, you have to give credit to Jarmo .. the outlook for this franchise is vastly different if he wasn’t able to swindle Chicago .. that was a game changer which allowed them to bring in Bo and Bean, Sillinger , and whomever they draft this yr.. last yrs draft was franchise altering … And I think Larsen and Jd balance out Jarmos no nonsense , some may say cold/cutthroat approach

Don't count your chicken before they hatch. I remember when Zach Parise was about to hit free agency and he was leading everybody on how he wants to stay as a Devil while simultaneously planning to join Wild with Suter. While Laine has usually been brutally honest, you never know until it's done.

And even if Laine stays you can't draw general conclusions about it. The man has never drank alcohol, so New York night life might not appeal to him the same way it appeals to a guy like Panarin.

 

[JetsFan815]

Realy looking forward to the Jets game on friday. Wonder how the crowd in Winnipeg will react? Patrik and Rosie will be pumped for sure . Hope Lowry matches Wheeler and Scheiffele against them.

I think Laine will get cheers, I could see Roslovic getting a smattering of boos if the fans still remember Jack . Looking forward to the game as well. Friday night, no covid restrictions, alcohol should be flowing... should be a fun game.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

So he's cooled off.

0 goals 4 assists in his last 9 games. The good news (at least to me) is he is still shooting the puck a lot. Other than the Boston (in Boston and at home), and Pittsburgh games he has 4 shots or more in every game during this 9 game "slump."

Obviously we aren't expecting him to score at the red hot pace he was going at for a bit there, and 4 points in 9 games isn't exactly terrible production either. However I am growing a bit concerned with the direction his play has gone in these last few games.

He's going back to some of the "Laineisms" (As I affectionately call it) that got him in trouble last year and earlier this year. He's trying to carry it (with no speed) through multiple guys, he's doing a lot of standing and watching when the puck isn't on his stick, and he's turning the puck over a lot in the neutral zone.

I'm still in favor of signing him, obviously everyone goes through highs and lows in a season, but it does beg the question of how much is too much when it comes to a contract? I was always leery at giving him 9+ million per season, even during his hot streak, and that's likely the number its going to take to get him to stay long term.

My question is, if Laine's agent says the number STARTS at 9, do you sign that?

 

[Byrral]

I was always leery at giving him 9+ million per season, even during his hot streak, and that's likely the number its going to take to get him to stay long term.

My question is, if Laine's agent says the number STARTS at 9, do you sign that?

For that number I'm looking for a trade partner. He will still have a lot of value over the summer so if that's the number I'd try to flip him for a defender. He's great at times but he's just too inconsistent for me. Get what you can for him and don't look back because it will look like a bad move at times.

 

[Double-Shift Lasse]

So he's cooled off.

0 goals 4 assists in his last 9 games. The good news (at least to me) is he is still shooting the puck a lot. Other than the Boston (in Boston and at home), and Pittsburgh games he has 4 shots or more in every game during this 9 game "slump."

Obviously we aren't expecting him to score at the red hot pace he was going at for a bit there, and 4 points in 9 games isn't exactly terrible production either. However I am growing a bit concerned with the direction his play has gone in these last few games.

He's going back to some of the "Laineisms" (As I affectionately call it) that got him in trouble last year and earlier this year. He's trying to carry it (with no speed) through multiple guys, he's doing a lot of standing and watching when the puck isn't on his stick, and he's turning the puck over a lot in the neutral zone.

I'm still in favor of signing him, obviously everyone goes through highs and lows in a season, but it does beg the question of how much is too much when it comes to a contract? I was always leery at giving him 9+ million per season, even during his hot streak, and that's likely the number its going to take to get him to stay long term.

My question is, if Laine's agent says the number STARTS at 9, do you sign that?

I’ve been thinking this too if Kate, as he hasn’t been scoring. Does it coincide with Jenner’s injury? Is there something else external to Laine to which the slump can be attributed?

Very difficult to gauge value contract-wise. He’s just such a unique player, both on-ice and in apparent temperament/personality. Those things are part of why I want the Jackets org to be the one to figure it out.

 

[VT]

For that number I'm looking for a trade partner. He will still have a lot of value over the summer so if that's the number I'd try to flip him for a defender. He's great at times but he's just too inconsistent for me. Get what you can for him and don't look back because it will look like a bad move at times.

Will we found such good a d-man or a bit average + draft picks? Simply what we have.

 

[Byrral]

Will we found such good a d-man or a bit average + draft picks? Simply what we have.

Maybe not. But it's also not out of the question that there is a possibility that the CBJ might be a better team without him if it takes a $9M+ cap hit to keep him. I'm very much interested to see what Jarmo thinks and what happens over the rest of this season and thru the summer.

 

[majormajor]

I’ve been thinking this too if Kate, as he hasn’t been scoring. Does it coincide with Jenner’s injury? Is there something else external to Laine to which the slump can be attributed?

No.

He does this every year. No literally, something like 5 points in his last 12 games of the year is literally normal for him. Maybe every year even.

*I mean literally literally.

 

[majormajor]

No.

He does this every year. No literally, something like 5 points in his last 12 games of the year is literally normal for him. Maybe every year even.

*I mean literally literally.

Hey look, Mulletman did the work for me:

Laine has always been really bad towards the end of the season. In 2016-17 Laine had 4+1=5 points in his last 14 games. In 2017-18 Laine had 1+1=2 points in his last 10 games when he was supposed to push for the Rocket. In 2018-19 Laine had 1+1=2 points in his last 12 games. Yeah Paul Maurice was trying to make him into a 2way player, but still. In 2019-20 Covid shut down the season right as Laine was supposed to have his bad stretch. In 2020-21 Laine had 0+4=4points in his last 11 games. So it's pretty much been a trend his whole career. That's just 13 points in 47 games towards the end of the season. Compared to 310 points in 357 games otherwise. So yeah the difference is huge as Laine goes from a 0.86 point per game player to a 0.27 point per game player.

5 pts in 12 might actually be above the way he has traditionally finished.

 

[CBJx614]

So with Barkov signing 8 x 10, that's gotta put Laine somewhere under that number right? Obliviously different positions but Barkov has been a consistent centerpiece for that team and more productive than Laine over his career.

 

[majormajor]

So with Barkov signing 8 x 10, that's gotta put Laine somewhere under that number right? Obliviously different positions but Barkov has been a consistent centerpiece for that team and more productive than Laine over his career.

I don't know how to genuinely use player comps like that.

Barkov gave Florida a discount. He could have gotten millions more on the open market.

Barkov is also probably worth like twice as much as Laine as a hockey player. He is a dominant two-way player and very consistent.

 

[CBJx614]

I don't know how to genuinely use player comps like that.

Barkov gave Florida a discount. He could have gotten millions more on the open market.

Barkov is also probably worth like twice as much as Laine as a hockey player. He is a dominant two-way player and very consistent.

Does that do anything to the overall market? Or do other GM's just look at it as an outlier?

 

[majormajor]

Does that do anything to the overall market? Or do other GM's just look at it as an outlier?

I don't think another player's discount effects the offers that would be out there if a player hit the open market.

 

[EspenK]

So he's cooled off.

0 goals 4 assists in his last 9 games. The good news (at least to me) is he is still shooting the puck a lot. Other than the Boston (in Boston and at home), and Pittsburgh games he has 4 shots or more in every game during this 9 game "slump."

Obviously we aren't expecting him to score at the red hot pace he was going at for a bit there, and 4 points in 9 games isn't exactly terrible production either. However I am growing a bit concerned with the direction his play has gone in these last few games.

He's going back to some of the "Laineisms" (As I affectionately call it) that got him in trouble last year and earlier this year. He's trying to carry it (with no speed) through multiple guys, he's doing a lot of standing and watching when the puck isn't on his stick, and he's turning the puck over a lot in the neutral zone.

I'm still in favor of signing him, obviously everyone goes through highs and lows in a season, but it does beg the question of how much is too much when it comes to a contract? I was always leery at giving him 9+ million per season, even during his hot streak, and that's likely the number its going to take to get him to stay long term.

My question is, if Laine's agent says the number STARTS at 9, do you sign that?

4 in 9 projects to 36 pts over a full season. For 9mm a year no thanks. I go back and forth on re-signing him but as of today long term I think the Jackets can better spend that 9mm. Realistically I think Jarmo re-signs him and we can debate that for years to come.