Player Discussion: Patrik Laine IVever: a new hope? (Laine out of PAP, trade request still stands)

[cslebn]

Checked on on the way too much summer thread this morning and

Yep way too much summer

 

[NotCommitted]

Btw. happened upon a JFresh player card for Laine -

That confirms he was playing mostly best-on-best last season - 90% quality of competition and 90% quality of team mates. Bergeron for example had 88% and 100%. Laine > Bergeron confirmed!

Just bringing this up since this was discussed some time back but I'm not sure if there's a free source for tracking the matchups season wide. But it fits what I observed last season on a game to game basis - mostly they were matching the 1st line against the opposition's best players.

 

[majormajor]

Btw. happened upon a JFresh player card for Laine -

That confirms he was playing mostly best-on-best last season - 90% quality of competition and 90% quality of team mates. Bergeron for example had 88% and 100%. Laine > Bergeron confirmed!

Just bringing this up since this was discussed some time back but I'm not sure if there's a free source for tracking the matchups season wide. But it fits what I observed last season on a game to game basis - mostly they were matching the 1st line against the opposition's best players.

Just a purely statistical nitpick - 90% competition means he faced harder competition than 90% of players, it doesn't mean his average opponent is in the 90th percentile of quality. Everyone plays everyone so I suspect that being in the 90th percentile as far as Qual comp would mean being out there vs 55-65% quality opponents on average. Quality of teammates is much more important because it is much more consistent, Laine won't play with our 4th liners but he will play against opposing 4th lines occasionally.

 

[NotWendell]

Just a purely statistical nitpick - 90% competition means he faced harder competition than 90% of players, it doesn't mean his average opponent is in the 90th percentile of quality. Everyone plays everyone so I suspect that being in the 90th percentile as far as Qual comp would mean being out there vs 55-65% quality opponents on average. Quality of teammates is much more important because it is much more consistent, Laine won't play with our 4th liners but he will play against opposing 4th lines occasionally.

Would that mean Jared Boll would face 99th percentile?

 

[NotCommitted]

Just a purely statistical nitpick - 90% competition means he faced harder competition than 90% of players, it doesn't mean his average opponent is in the 90th percentile of quality. Everyone plays everyone so I suspect that being in the 90th percentile as far as Qual comp would mean being out there vs 55-65% quality opponents on average. Quality of teammates is much more important because it is much more consistent, Laine won't play with our 4th liners but he will play against opposing 4th lines occasionally.

Yeah of course, but those are clear "1st liners playing against 1st liners" numbers.

 

[majormajor]

Yeah of course, but those are clear "1st liners playing against 1st liners" numbers.

That's pretty much the opposite of what I'm saying. No one's average opponent in the regular season is that good.

 

[NotCommitted]

That's pretty much the opposite of what I'm saying. No one's average opponent in the regular season is that good.

Yes I know what the number means. I simply meant that that's what those numbers end up looking likefor 1st liners who play against 1st liners, I never confused them to mean they "only" play against 1st liners. But if you look at game logs for guys with those kind of numbers, their most common opponents in a game will most of the time be the best players of the other team, and their 2nd most common opponents will usually be the 2nd liners etc.

 

[Halberdier]

Just a purely statistical nitpick - 90% competition means he faced harder competition than 90% of players, it doesn't mean his average opponent is in the 90th percentile of quality. Everyone plays everyone so I suspect that being in the 90th percentile as far as Qual comp would mean being out there vs 55-65% quality opponents on average. Quality of teammates is much more important because it is much more consistent, Laine won't play with our 4th liners but he will play against opposing 4th lines occasionally.

Eating the cake and having it too, aren't you?

If you are 90th percentile for both linemates and opponents, any complaints about "easy matchups" are just ridiculous. On average, you basically face similar level of opponents that your linemates are, generally speaking. And that is what is expected. No coach is so fool to not try to play the best against someone like Laine.

 

[Halberdier]

Nash & Laine are completely different players playing in different decades with much different teams. Do you think for a minute Nash wouldn’t give his eye teeth to play with a team that has as much talent as this team has now??

We signed Johnny, extended Laine and drafted two top tier Dmen, for God’s sake take a deep breath. This team is really 1-2 years away.. but why not get the party started now

The whole purpose to bring Nash (& Panarin) up by not-so-Laine-loving poster was just to stir the pot.

Apples and oranges in so many ways. If someone really wants to compare those two, better wait until they have played at least remotely comparable amount of time on Blue Jackets. And even then it's a bit pointless comparison.

 

[majormajor]

Yes I know what the number means. I simply meant that that's what those numbers end up looking likefor 1st liners who play against 1st liners, I never confused them to mean they "only" play against 1st liners. But if you look at game logs for guys with those kind of numbers, their most common opponents in a game will most of the time be the best players of the other team, and their 2nd most common opponents will usually be the 2nd liners etc.

You'll see plenty of lower lineup players with with the same pattern.

Eating the cake and having it too, aren't you?

If you are 90th percentile for both linemates and opponents, any complaints about "easy matchups" are just ridiculous. On average, you basically face similar level of opponents that your linemates are, generally speaking. And that is what is expected. No coach is so fool to not try to play the best against someone like Laine.

That's what I am saying is not true. If everyone is playing vs everyone with some occasional line matching on top of it, then being 90th percentile in opponent quality and 90th percentile in teammate quality would suggest your teammates are better than your opponents, on average. It's that way for every top line. I think you're assuming that the two quality percentiles come from the same scale, they don't. The variance in average opponent quality is much lower than the variance in average teammate quality.

 

[thebus88]

The whole purpose to bring Nash (& Panarin) up by not-so-Laine-loving poster was just to stir the pot.

Apples and oranges in so many ways. If someone really wants to compare those two, better wait until they have played at least remotely comparable amount of time on Blue Jackets. And even then it's a bit pointless comparison.

The point is that the CBJ have had players just as good, and better, than Laine.

The point is that there have been better CBJ teams than the current CBJ team.

Both are things some people are trying to pass of as truth in this thread currently.

 

[Halberdier]

The point is that the CBJ have had players just as good, and better, than Laine.

The point is that there have been better CBJ teams than the current CBJ team.

Both are things some people are trying to pass of as truth in this thread currently.

Some people? I haven't seen any of those. Everyone I know acknowledges that Rick Nash and Panarin are/were great players and that while the current CBJ team is surprisingly promising after what kind of train wreck it was just 2 seasons ago, it's certainly not ready as a contender for the coming season unless like 10 unthinkable miracles do happen the same time.

Forwards aren't ready, and D-men are below average even if they improve a lot as they are expected to do. Goaltending is a mystery. It might be anything from meh to excellent, depending on Elvis.

This team has the potential to become the best CBJ team ever in a couple of seasons given that like half of the prospects pan out as expected. But it's nowhere close to that yet. There is gazillion reasons to be very, very excited about the CBJ coming season with all the prospects, Johnny & Laine etc., but I don't think there really are people that would think that this team would right now be the best CBJ team ever. I am glad if they just make it into the playoffs, and that's possible, but not an easy task.

 

[Ippenator]

You'll see plenty of lower lineup players with with the same pattern.



That's what I am saying is not true. If everyone is playing vs everyone with some occasional line matching on top of it, then being 90th percentile in opponent quality and 90th percentile in teammate quality would suggest your teammates are better than your opponents, on average. It's that way for every top line. I think you're assuming that the two quality percentiles come from the same scale, they don't. The variance in average opponent quality is much lower than the variance in average teammate quality.

What is your point really here? It doesn’t matter even that there is more variance with the opponent quality compared to the quality of teammates, when the end result is that Laine has been playing against tougher opponents than 90 percentage of the players. That is pretty impressive honestly when thinking of how good his and his linemate’s results were last season. No reason to try to diminish that with anything really.

 

[VT]

The point is that the CBJ have had players just as good, and better, than Laine.

The point is that there have been better CBJ teams than the current CBJ team.

Both are things some people are trying to pass of as truth in this thread currently.

Can you tell me just good and better players? Of course except Gaudreau who didn't play here in the last season and Werenski, who is a d-man? Because so far most of your arguments are based on hate. Otherwise, I can't explain the fact that you always find fault with him, he always depend on everyone, and on other side, your favourite players are probably saints to you. Especially Bjorkie whose departure I still can't come to terms with.
Btw, this also applies to Gavrikov, or Peeke. I think they are overrated too, but everything has its limits.

 

[NotCommitted]

The whole reason I brought up those QoC numbers is because it was claimed earlier by someone that Laine was somehow getting the easy matchups, but that was really not ever the case for the game logs I checked during the season and that QoC number goes against that well. Also neither his on-the-fly or faceoff zone start percentages support that notion.

While the importance of quality of teammates > quality of competition, that doesn't really have anything to do with it, nobody was ever claiming Laine was used as some kind of shutdown specialist facing the toughest matchups with sub par linemates, just that the 1st line was used like I suppose most teams use their first line - generally going best-on-best and playing all situations.

 

[majormajor]

What is your point really here? It doesn’t matter even that there is more variance with the opponent quality compared to the quality of teammates, when the end result is that Laine has been playing against tougher opponents than 90 percentage of the players. That is pretty impressive honestly when thinking of how good his and his linemate’s results were last season. No reason to try to diminish that with anything really.

I'm not commenting on Laine. It was just a bad statistical interpretation, I'm not going to let that stuff fly.

The whole reason I brought up those QoC numbers is because it was claimed earlier by someone that Laine was somehow getting the easy matchups, but that was really not ever the case for the game logs I checked during the season and that QoC number goes against that well. Also neither his on-the-fly or faceoff zone start percentages support that notion.

While the importance of quality of teammates > quality of competition, that doesn't really have anything to do with it, nobody was ever claiming Laine was used as some kind of shutdown specialist facing the toughest matchups with sub par linemates, just that the 1st line was used like I suppose most teams use their first line - generally going best-on-best and playing all situations.

Probably bus said one thing months ago, because all I remember seeing here for months ad nauseum is "Laine plays against top competition", as if this is some big debate. I don't know anyone challenging your idea.

 

[VT]

Let's be honest, stats like that are pretty inaccurate as they don't have all the information. This applies to Patrik as well, whether the stats are in his favor or vice versa. Not only that, teams have their own statisticians who focus on things unknown to us (and also known like laineovers ).

 

[BOTH]

Despite the back and forth...color me excited! Time machines would be fun!

 

[OldGoaltender]

Despite the back and forth...color me excited! Time machines would be fun!

If we’re doing time machines can we also bring back the late great Tony Esposito. My absolute favorite player.

 

[Halberdier]

If we’re doing time machines can we also bring back the late great Tony Esposito. My absolute favorite player.

As a kid I had some ice hockey learning book featuring Tony & Phil Esposito. It must have been a Finnish version of some Canadian book.

Edit: found the original

 

[gearmex]

Patrik Laine ajoi päänsä kaljuksi – Lamborghini vaihtui Range Roveriin

Patrik Laine osallistui pesäpallotapahtumaan Tampereella, jossa nähtiin myös hänen uusi hiustyylinsä ja menopelinsä.

www.iltalehti.fi

He was doing Charity gig, shaved his head and looks pretty lean, said he has been training pretty hard and mentioned (Or replied?) That he have been with his gf for 7 years and said it don't go better by changing.

 

[CBJWerenski8]

With his hairline quickly leaving him, going bald is probably the right choice

 

[stevo61]

With his hairline quickly leaving him, going bald is probably the right choice

I was kind of hoping for a Devin Townsend skullet but yeah... probably a good choice to shave it

 

[Marioesque]

I was kind of hoping for a Devin Townsend skullet but yeah... probably a good choice to shave it

That would be epic.

 

[gritdash60]

He also sold his Lamborghini Urus and bought a Range Rover. Lamborghini is an Italian manufacturer and i think Johnny Gaudreau has italian ancestry. To me this is a clear sign of a rift in the locker room.