Patience With Young Players

[Larrybiv]

Because most teams that get those picks suck, and those players are instantly put on the top pp, top line and any other minutes they want. The teams also dont have to worry about winning or losing because their teams suck and they are likely hoping for another top pick or two. Success can be measured in many ways, Laf for instance has worked on his defensive game and has become more and more reliable, something a guy like Stutzle really hasnt had to worry about. Imo when both those players are finished products Lafreniere will likely be a more complete player where Stutzle is fairly one dimensional. So if we measure things soley on points the players on shittier teams getting tons of minutes are likely to appear better, but imo its deceiving.

Here ye', here ye'. Well said.

 

[Larrybiv]

I mean to put it another way, If our 1st and 2nd overalls performed like the average 1st and 2nd overalls do 2-3 years post-draft, we might be talking about the Cup we won last year. Instead we'll be mired in mediocrity with Laf and Kakko hitting their strides just as Panarin, CK and Zbad are full fledged high priced anchors, and everyone will be lamenting the dumb long term deals we gave out.

Bite your tongue please. This is a very scary scenario. Probably one of the "main reasons" people are panicking with our slowly developing youth. I'm NOT, but they do need to step on the gas a little, and Panarin, CK and Zbad better stay solid for at least another 4-5 years.

 

[kovazub94]

Whether or not they are truly "ready" I think if you are expecting a team to do something that literally zero teams in this spot have done in over 30 years then your expectations are out of line.

Now you switching gears a bit. I thought your argument was that these players were ready / well-prepared to play in the NHL, rather than "what Rangers were supposed to do if this is what's been done previously and therefore expected of the Rangers picks?". I agree that the Rangers front office might have been afraid of potential PR nightmare if they decided to let Kakko and / or Lafreniere to play outside of the NHL after getting drafted. With Covid restrictions I don't think there was even a good option outside of the NHL for Lafreniere, but Kakko could surely spent (most of) a year in the AHL or even back in Finland for the benefit of his development. Byfield, Power, Beniers, Nemec came after our picks and their front office decided on a different path.

 

[kovazub94]

I mean to put it another way, If our 1st and 2nd overalls performed like the average 1st and 2nd overalls do 2-3 years post-draft, we might be talking about the Cup we won last year. Instead we'll be mired in mediocrity with Laf and Kakko hitting their strides just as Panarin, CK and Zbad are full fledged high priced anchors, and everyone will be lamenting the dumb long term deals we gave out.

That's BS. As a group Kids line perform as good as could've been reasonably expected from any recent high draft picks in their 2nd / 3rd years.

 

[The New Russian Five]

He was benched 18 games ago. People have already had to eat a lot of crow on Kakko. Laf will be next. We all need to calm down.

Not just hockey but all sports. Giants fans were ready to get rid of Andrew Thomas after a few games as a rookie. He may be a top 5 overall player in football.

The thing about Kakko, was that you could see flashes of the high end talent and the skills that he can be really good at. We knew Kakko could become a possession monster if he could just get his size and strength up, which he is now done.

But when it comes to Laf, I don't see the high end talent or those flashes. Would love to be proven wrong, but feel like it is unlikely to happen at this stage. I'm sure he will get better though, he's only 21. But to develop into a star? Seems like a long road from here.

 

[bhamill]

The "poor development" of Laf, Kakko and Chytil (yeah he was totally bagged on till last season's playoffs) is a fake problem. They are coming along fine. Last year everyone's caveat was that they at least wanted to see the "flashes" of high end play. Now that that is going on its along the lines of "Well they should be stars already." Or they don't have the numbers of most of the similar high picks from before COVID who went onto teams where they were given prime top minutes and 1st PP, whatever. Laf is a 21 year old kid who has gotten to play what 155 regular season games and 20 playoff games? 19 even strength regular season goals and one of our better players during a conference final run as a 20 year old, and this season, despite being snakebitten, is still close to .5 points per game again pretty much all even strength. I don't get the panic. But whatever. Hahaha. As long as the team doesn't make any of the dumbass moves with these kids I see floated around, I don't care. Some of the posters would have given all three of these guys away for practically nothing the last couple of years. Hahaha. Imagine if we had drafted Byfield? Holy f***.

 

[SA16]

Now you switching gears a bit. I thought your argument was that these players were ready / well-prepared to play in the NHL, rather than "what Rangers were supposed to do if this is what's been done previously and therefore expected of the Rangers picks?". I agree that the Rangers front office might have been afraid of potential PR nightmare if they decided to let Kakko and / or Lafreniere to play outside of the NHL after getting drafted. With Covid restrictions I don't think there was even a good option outside of the NHL for Lafreniere, but Kakko could surely spent (most of) a year in the AHL or even back in Finland for the benefit of his development. Byfield, Power, Beniers, Nemec came after our picks and their front office decided on a different path.

Power is the only one of those who was a #1 overall pick and going back to school was his decision and not the teams. I also specified forwards since there have been more defenseman that don't start right away (Erik Johnson/Owen Power/All three between 94 and 96) and it's more widely believed they took longer to develop.

Additionally there have been 15 #1 forwards between 2001 (Kovalchuk) and 2019 (Hughes). They scored an average of 28 goals, 36 assists, and 64 points (per 82 games) in their rookie year. If you want to remove Ovy/Sid/McDavid you get an average of 25 goals, 31 assists, and 56 points. That does not look like a group to me that wasn't ready to play in the NHL. You don't score 25 goals and 56 points by just being played on L1/PP1 for 18+ minutes a game if you're not competent.

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

One question for those that are impatient.

What was our best line in playoffs last year?

Zib-Fox-Shesty

 

[LORDE]

Stares at Kreider's 52 goals. If this organization had patience we wouldn't have 1 cup in close to 30 years. Just look at the guys that we gave up early on have successful careers. But this board is smarter than professionals in the league and want to launch players into the sun at 20 years old.

Ahhh yes the “averages out to 30” parade
Plz
Kreider is now an anchor on the cap
He’ll NEVER See 25 again

 

[WojtekWolski86]

Ahhh yes the “averages out to 30” parade
Plz
Kreider is now an anchor on the cap
He’ll NEVER See 25 again

This post will age well when he hits 25 again. He has better hands than Graves and Graves consistently hit this mark just having pucks bounce off him in front of the net...but "Kreider is an anchor on the cap" like you haven't seen worse contracts for his production now. Maybe argue this point in 4 years.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Zib-Fox-Shesty

Loved Shesty's clap bomb from the hash marks

 

[LORDE]

This post will age well when he hits 25 again. He has better hands than Graves and Graves consistently hit this mark just having pucks bounce off him in front of the net...but "Kreider is an anchor on the cap" like you haven't seen worse contracts for his production now. Maybe argue this point in 4 years.

You bet I will
This team should’ve traded him before his 52
That would’ve been the best return
Now? No one will give a 1st for him

 

[Machinehead]

Ahhh yes the “averages out to 30” parade
Plz
Kreider is now an anchor on the cap
He’ll NEVER See 25 again

He's on pace for 34 right now on a shooting percentage that would starve a cow.

 

[Tawnos]

Kane scored 1.76 p/60 at 5v5 in his D+2. Lafrenière scored 1.66. I realize that's one example, but it's not like this is unprecedented even if it's rare.

Also, the early season shooting percentage woes are affecting everyone in the top-6, which included Lafrenière and Kakko until recently. Kreider, Zibanejad, and Trocheck have each never had a full season with 5v5 shooting percentages as low as what they have to this point this season. In particular, the number of high quality chances Lafrenière has set up this season that haven't resulted in goals reflects this.

There's no doubt that the two of them have been disappointing and I'm not trying to say otherwise, but patience is honestly the most reasonable position to take with them at this point for two reasons. One is that their talent is pretty obvious and the other is simply this: what other choice is there?

 

[Machinehead]

Stares at Kreider's 52 goals. If this organization had patience we wouldn't have 1 cup in close to 30 years. Just look at the guys that we gave up early on have successful careers. But this board is smarter than professionals in the league and want to launch players into the sun at 20 years old.

I agree that lack of patience has hurt us, but I also think it's a worrying trend that we always require so much patience.

Kreider is f***ing great but like, he broke out offensively at 31 years old. Zuccarello is a 90 point player now.

I think it's fair to say that there's something systemic with this organization that has been slowing down forwards for a long time, and it would be helpful to address.

 

[Machinehead]

Kane scored 1.76 p/60 at 5v5 in his D+2. Lafrenière scored 1.66. I realize that's one example, but it's not like this is unprecedented even if it's rare.

Also, the early season shooting percentage woes are affecting everyone in the top-6, which included Lafrenière and Kakko until recently. Kreider, Zibanejad, and Trocheck have each never had a full season with shooting percentages as low as what they have to this point this season. In particular, the number of high quality chances Lafrenière has set up this season that haven't resulted in goals reflects this.

There's no doubt that the two of them have been disappointing and I'm not trying to say otherwise, but patience is honestly the most reasonable position to take with them at this point for two reasons. One is that their talent is pretty obvious and the other is simply this: what other choice is there?

Also, I will say this, to your point, for all the talk of "centers have all this responsibility" and "defensemen take so long," wingers actually take the longest to peak out of the three. It's not a Rangers thing.

It's totally counterintuitive and I don't have the whole list on me, but take a look around the league and you'll see it.

Hall won his Hart trophy D+8. Matt Tkachuk just had by far his best season D+6.

The other Tkachuk, Svechnikov, Farabee, Caufield, and Boldy are the only bonafide, undisputed top six wingers out of the first round of the 2017, 2018, and 2019 drafts put together, and Caufield and Boldy are only just breaking out this year.

People compare Lafreniere and Kakko to other first overalls. Compare them to 1st, 2nd, maybe even 3rd overall wingers. It's a lot more flattering, especially if you remove Ovechkin who came from outer space.

 

[duhmetreE]

I agree that lack of patience has hurt us, but I also think it's a worrying trend that we always require so much patience.

Kreider is f***ing great but like, he broke out offensively at 31 years old. Zuccarello is a 90 point player now.

I think it's fair to say that there's something systemic with this organization that has been slowing down forwards for a long time, and it would be helpful to address.

he has his fingerprints in every aspect of the org. It's filled with 'his guys'. There needs to be a complete gutting and re-evaluation.

We have the most resources in the NHL. It's unacceptable to have what we have.

 

[Tawnos]

I agree that lack of patience has hurt us, but I also think it's a worrying trend that we always require so much patience.

Kreider is f***ing great but like, he broke out offensively at 31 years old. Zuccarello is a 90 point player now.

I think it's fair to say that there's something systemic with this organization that has been slowing down forwards for a long time, and it would be helpful to address.

I get that it feels like a trend here, but I've never really understood how that could possibly be. The people responsible for developing players in the early parts of their careers have changed multiple times and we largely see the same results.

We're talking multiple iterations of scouting departments, coaching staffs both AHL and NHL, and development staff, since this problem goes back into the 90s and exists under several different Presidents of Hockey Ops with different philosophies.

It doesn't feel rational to me to put this on something wrong with the team, because while the name on the jersey has been the same over a longer period of time like this, the organization itself is not. In other words, what does Chris Drury's New York Rangers have to do with Neil Smith's?

 

[Machinehead]

I get that it feels like a trend here, but I've never really understood how that could possibly be. The people responsible for developing players in the early parts of their careers have changed multiple times and we largely see the same results.

We're talking multiple iterations of scouting departments, coaching staffs both AHL and NHL, and development staff, since this problem goes back into the 90s and exists under several different Presidents of Hockey Ops with different philosophies.

It doesn't feel rational to me to put this on something wrong with the team, because while the name on the jersey has been the same over a longer period of time like this, the organization itself is not. In other words, what does Chris Drury's New York Rangers have to do with Neil Smith's?

I think organizations develop cultures that can supersede the individuals. We come from an era where there was only so many teams and it was normal to cut your teeth until you were in your mid-20's because of all the bodies ahead of you.

It's very rare that there's a complete flush of the system. Somebody from the old guard has to be around the hire the new guard. They hire people they like and things get passed down.

If you wanna go all the way back to the 90's and beyond, maybe you can say that's just a coincidence, but Sather took over in 2000. Gorton was his AGM and Drury was Gorton's AGM. We're not that far removed from the same guy running the team for the last couple of decades and obviously they each liked the guy after them because they hired the guy after them.

I don't think it's unfair to say, at the very least, that Sather would agree with Drury on most things, so I don't think it's strange to say that weaknesses of the Sather regime would persist.

Developing forwards was certainly an weakness of the Sather regime.

The obvious explanation was always that he traded picks away like candy. Now here we are with all these picks and we're finding out maybe it's more than that.

 

[LORDE]

He's on pace for 34 right now on a shooting percentage that would starve a cow.

And every team know his schtick
He’s not getting 30
Mark my words

 

[Machinehead]

And every team know his schtick
He’s not getting 30
Mark my words

He'll have 30 by March once his shooting percentage becomes something that you might see on planet Earth.

"They know his schtick."

They knew it last year. Kreider could skate up to you on the ice and tell you where he's gonna stand. How are you stopping him from going there?

 

[Tawnos]

I think organizations develop cultures that can supersede the individuals. We come from an era where there was only so many teams and it was normal to cut your teeth until you were in your mid-20's because of all the bodies ahead of you.

It's very rare that there's a complete flush of the system. Somebody from the old guard has to be around the hire the new guard. They hire people they like and things get passed down.

If you wanna go all the way back to the 90's and beyond, maybe you can say that's just a coincidence, but Sather took over in 2000. Gorton was his AGM and Drury was Gorton's AGM. We're not that far removed from the same guy running the team for the last couple of decades and obviously they each liked the guy after them because they hired the guy after them.

I don't think it's unfair to say, at the very least, that Sather would agree with Drury on most things, so I don't think it's strange to say that weaknesses of the Sather regime would persist.

Developing forwards was certainly an weakness of the Sather regime.

Well, developing high performing offensive forwards was a weakness. Developing two-way 2nd and 3rd liners was something that improved by a lot, and was a big part of the short contention window we got last decade.

I really think this boils down to luck, which sucks.

 

[bhamill]

And every team know his schtick
He’s not getting 30
Mark my words

You mean he's not getting 25, don't you?

 

[Off Sides]

Of the notable forwards the Rangers drafted since a long time ago

Laff
Kakko
Krav
Lias
Chytil
Buch
Duclair
Fast
JT Miller
Kreider
Stepan

Maybe these guys were mostly seen as secondary in importance because the team always had a Jagr, Nash, Gaborik, Panarin, Richards, etc, and that is where the organizations focus was?

 

[JCProdigy]

Environment plays a massive role in the development of prospects. We have seen it play out time and time and time again.

Look, Kakko and Lafreniere are clearly not Matthews and Marner on a raw talent basis. That is fair.

But I can’t think of many other recent 1OA/2OA who had to step into the type of environment they did. Maybe Bobby Ryan, JVR. It’s about minutes yes but it’s also about ownership of the team, it’s about confidence. It’s about continuing development curves. Lest we forget these are still human beings.

There is zero, absolutely zero, doubt in my mind that if Lafreniere had been stapled to Jack Hughes’ wing and PP1 since he stepped foot in the league he would be pacing for 40-50 goals.

I can agree in general. Hey environment can play a role in all our career developments to a certain degree, but it can do so in many differing ways, and a lot of that is in the person's hands insomuch as how they react to the environment they are placed in.

Still I believe the players skill level (and willingness to put in the work to develop that skill) is the biggest determining factor in whether they ultimately become successful in the long run.

Look at the Edmonton Oilers. 1OA picks in 4 out of 6 years (throw in the 3OA pick too within that timeframe). All being introduced to relatively the same environment (most here would say not a very good one): Hall, RNH, Yakupov, Draisatl, MacDavid. All highly skilled entering draft year. All with varying degrees of outcomes on their careers.

I will agree that it can't be passed over that Laf was joining an outlier of a situation compared to most 1OA picks. How much it matters in the end can be argued but it is totally different. Look at the following:

[TABLE=collapse]
[TR]
[TD]29th, 26th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29th, 28th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]28th, 26th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]30th, 27th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]27th, 28th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]31st, 31st[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]29th, 26th[/TD]
[/TR]
[TR]
[TD]17th, 5th[/TD]
[/TR]
[/TABLE]

Those are the pre-draft NHL Rankings for 'points' and 'goals for' for the team drafting 1OA in the 7 years leading up to Rangers drafting Laf and the last is the Rangers rankings the year they won the lottery. The NYR had no business drafting first overall (17th in points) and they were the team least needing it (5th in goals).