Just taking RSL stats and compring it to NHL production is really taking it out of context. I've read more than a few times that guys like Ovi and Geno received limited amount of ice time (I may be wrong with this though) and the league was just low scoring in general. Kovalchuk for example was 2nd in NHL scoring in 03-04 but only scored 42 points in 53 games, Kovalev who was also around a ppg in the NHL after the lockout but only scored 21 points in 35 games in the RSL. Both surely would have been the goto guy for their teams.
Thanks for bringing Kovalchuck into the discussion. He did come to NHL as young as Laine, and in his last RSL season he far surpassed what Ovy was able to do that young (17-year-old).
40. 28+18=46 (regular season)
12. 14+4=18 (playoffs)
Kovy also made pretty nice records in his 18- and 19-year-old seasons in NHL, just to get eclipsed by Laine:
65. 29+22=51
81. 38+29=67
That's somewhere in TOP-10 for a teenager in NHL and TOP-2 or TOP-3 (after Laine and possibly Jagr) for an European teenager.
So 17-year old Kovy made 42 goals in just 52 RSL games, but somehow 18-year-old Kovy made "only" 29 goals in 65 games. Yet you want us to take face value those claims that 19-year-old Ovy doing 13 goals in RSL would have done at least close to 52 goals in NHL.
No way.
Considering how Ovechkin's game is built for NA hockey I think it's essentially impossible for him to score a whole lot less than 106 points even if he came a year earlier.
Just no. Nothing within his stats suggests that he would have done even nearly the amount of 106 points one year younger. (Also most probably there weren't insane amount of PP had lockout not occurred).