Out of Town Thread - New Year's Edition!

[417]

I guess we are happier with a 21yo rookie putting up a 30 pts season than a 21yo playing his 3rd season doing the exact same thing.

What's the difference?

 

[MarkovsKnee]

That's a little unfair because while yes he did turn the puck over he also hustled his ass off to backtrack the play, and ended up making it a 2 on 2 down low. Ultimately, Winnipeg didn't score while Calgary was able to turn it back up ice, and catch Winnipeg for a 2 on 1, which Flames did score on.

Mistakes happen. In the last 12 games, while Calgary is trying to make a push, Huberdeau has 11 points and is +5.

That's 2nd on the team behind Toffoli, who's having a ridiculously good season.

Kadri has 7 points in that same time frame and is -4. He had some absolutely brutal giveaways leading to goals in last night's game against Chicago. Just epic.

 

[sandviper]

Jesus… just noticed that Calgary 15 OTLs! Damn!

WC in the west is about to get interesting if they hold on to win.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

OK bois, early first round predictions, let's hear em ... GO

 

[Frank Drebin]

What's the difference?

Technically, none. But it's human nature to expect progression. 3 seasons is a blink when it comes to an entire career but feels like forever when you're watching the kid do the same stuff 3x a week.

 

[Rapala]

That's a little unfair because while yes he did turn the puck over he also hustled his ass off to backtrack the play, and ended up making it a 2 on 2 down low. Ultimately, Winnipeg didn't score while Calgary was able to turn it back up ice, and catch Winnipeg for a 2 on 1, which Flames did score on.

Mistakes happen. In the last 12 games, while Calgary is trying to make a push, Huberdeau has 11 points and is +5.

That's 2nd on the team behind Toffoli, who's having a ridiculously good season.

Kadri has 7 points in that same time frame and is -4. He had some absolutely brutal giveaways leading to goals in last night's game against Chicago. Just epic.

Yeah Kadri has been a complete bust for them. I think Huberdeau was always going to struggle with them because they don't have a prolific goal scorer and that kills his playmaking abilities. Similar to Suzuki when he lost Caufield losing the one guy who could put the puck in the net killed his numbers.

 

[MarkovsKnee]

So Flames lose to crappy Chicago last night, but beat Winnipeg on the 2nd half of a back-to-back.

I'd hate that team if I was a fan. Damn.

Jets - Flames tied now for final WC spot in West. Jets hold one game in hand and hold the 1st tie breaker, so they're still in the driver's seat.

Winnipeg's next game is Saturday versus Nashville, who are 3 points back with a game in hand.

Calgary is @ Vancouver.

Winnipeg then plays San Jose Monday, while Nashville is @ Calgary.

Great scheduling that all these teams are playing each other.

 

[Mrb1p]

Jesus… just noticed that Calgary 15 OTLs! Damn!

WC in the west is about to get interesting if they hold on to win.

They've been really unlucky, if you think about it. Lost the most games by 1 goal too.

OK bois, early first round predictions, let's hear em ... GO

Assuming these matchups:
West
Colorado over Seattle, but Seattle takes them far.
Dallas over Minny but thats a real tossup.
Vegas over Winnipeg.
McDanault loses to McDavid.

East
Boston in 7 over NYI
Tampa gets it again in 7, in hilarious fashion.
Carolina in 6
The resurrection of Patty Kane is too much, Hughes learns a hard lesson by his childhood hero.

 

[Toene]

They've been really unlucky, if you think about it. Lost the most games by 1 goal too.

Goals they could've gotten from Huberdeau if he didn't shit the the bed this year.

 

[GrandBison]

What's the difference?

That's my point, both still have room to grow...

 

[ReHabs]

Huge hit. It was a testy game, the kind that makes you miss the playoffs.

 

[417]

Technically, none. But it's human nature to expect progression. 3 seasons is a blink when it comes to an entire career but feels like forever when you're watching the kid do the same stuff 3x a week.

Sure but this is more about our perception, not necessarily an indication of a stalled development.

Our patience as fans, or lack there of, is not how we should measure the progress of a prospect.

 

[ReHabs]

Sure but this is more about our perception, not necessarily an indication of a stalled development.

Our patience as fans, or lack there of, is not how we should measure the progress of a prospect.

If a player is stalled for three years at the highest level he could play, how is that not an indication of stalled development ?

 

[417]

If a player is stalled for three years at the highest level he could play, how is that not an indication of stalled development ?

It's a part of development, for most players.

The expectation that development is only a constant upwards curve is a myth. I'm using of the Kotkaniemi situation as an example here. He's starting to look like he's putting things together, at 22 years old.

That's normal.

If Kotkaniemi wasn't "rushed" and instead this was his 2nd NHL season, the perception of him would be entirely different, meanwhile he'd be the same exact player he is today, but we perceive his development differently because he didn't light the league on fire when he was 18, 19, 20 and 21.

All i'm saying is we spend a lot of time trying to rush to judgement about players (not pointing the finger at you specifically here, we are all guilty of this as fans) , as soon as we can, because we want to be right. But it really takes 5 years ish' to really determine how the development of a prospect is going.

Of course that doesn't suggest that one can't criticize the player during the process, but sometimes it's OK to just...wait.

 

[ReHabs]

It's a part of development, for most players.

The expectation that development is only a constant upwards curve is a myth. I'm using of the Kotkaniemi situation as an example here. He's starting to look like he's putting things together, at 22 years old.

That's normal.

If Kotkaniemi wasn't "rushed" and instead this was his 2nd NHL season, the perception of him would be entirely different, meanwhile he'd be the same exact player he is today, but we perceive his development differently because he didn't light the league on fire when he was 18, 19, 20 and 21.

All i'm saying is we spend a lot of time trying to rush to judgement about players (not pointing the finger at you specifically here, we are all guilty of this as fans) , as soon as we can, because we want to be right. But it really takes 5 years ish' to really determine how the development of a prospect is going.

Of course that doesn't suggest that one can't criticize the player during the process, but sometimes it's OK to just...wait.

Five years isn't a rule of thumb, it varies from player to player -- but you're certainly right about the perception effect.

On the flip side, if you take into account the boundaries: one one side you have lower leagues, Jrs, etc and on the other side you have the NHL as a hard boundary. There is no higher level than the NHL.

If a player year-on-year doesn't seem to have improved his performance or production/results then his progression will certainly be perceived as 'stuck' no matter which league he finds himself -- but if he's in a lower league it doesn't matter so much because it's unlikely he will jump to a higher, tougher league if he's 'stuck'. It happens that most supporters follow the NHL level the most intensely so if a player is perceived as stuck at the NHL level then it naturally follows many will not see much runway ahead of him to improve.

More often than not players bust, so I think this is an acceptable heuristic despite the fact there are outliers.

Kotkaniemi hasn't even hit 0.5ppg in a season (he's on pace for that this year) so I'm not convinced he has really turned a corner. To me it's more like he's gradually approaching his level: two-way middle6 NHLer with good IQ. I'm rooting for him to succeed beyond that but it's not often a player has five years in the NHL and makes a significant jump in production/performance over that span. I haven't looked into it but usually to my nearly three decades of intensely following the NHL it is rare to see a player enjoy a big increase in PPG over five years in the NHL. Maybe it would be a good research project if some users here propose some names of players they think fit that slow and steady development model and who ended up as impact players with PPGs above eg. 0.75.

You're 100% correct it's all a matter of perception and there is no real mechanism behind it to which we can point. A player could always turn the corner at any time -- example: Between 05-06 and 12-13 Alex Steen was a player with a PPG of 0.6 to 0.7 (with five seasons of declining production, which got him traded from TOR to STL) then at age 29 in 13-14 he hit 0.91 and followed it with 0.86 and 0.78 PPG he aged out and declined afterward but the late bloom was genuinely surprising to me.

Year-on-year improvement no matter where the prospect finds himself must feel a lot more steady and encouraging than "next year he'll turn the corner" -- we endured a lot of that with Kostitsyn, Galchenyuk, Drouin, and Kotkaniemi and it never bore the fruit we wanted... even though it could have.

Regarding Slafkovsky, I felt that despite his production at the NHL level it would still be difficult to improve the technical aspects of his game that needed improvement. If he had managed to produce at a better rate then you could say "ReHabs you're dumb. He's a fine playmaker and your eye test is skewed, he's going to be fine". But since he didn't produce well, the question mark is still there. Production is a function of abilities and I felt that it's hard to improve his playmaking in the NHL, at NHL speeds, against NHL opposition. Obviously the Habs organization disagree and many users here are in total sync with the Habs organization so we'll know next year if Slaf has made any gains in his hockey abilities which would then reflect gains in production and performance.

This post is much longer than I thought it would be, my apologies to @Runner77 :lmao:

 

[417]

Five years isn't a rule of thumb, it varies from player to player -- but you're certainly right about the perception effect.

Agreed not a rule of thumb and I wasn't suggesting it was. Some players you can tell right away, but i'd suggest for the majority, that's roughly enough of a worthy sample size to really make a determination either way.

On the flip side, if you take into account the boundaries: one one side you have lower leagues, Jrs, etc and on the other side you have the NHL as a hard boundary. There is no higher level than the NHL.

If a player year-on-year doesn't seem to have improved his performance or production/results then his progression will certainly be perceived as 'stuck' no matter which league he finds himself -- but if he's in a lower league it doesn't matter so much because it's unlikely he will jump to a higher, tougher league if he's 'stuck'. It happens that most supporters follow the NHL level the most intensely so if a player is perceived as stuck at the NHL level then it naturally follows many will not see much runway ahead of him to improve.

Hence why it's supposed to be more difficult and it should be expected that it might take most players, more time to catch up to their draft pedigree. So I don't think we're in disagreement here, I just don't happen to give as much credence to my own perception about where a prospect *should be* at a certain point of his career.

Another good example of this is Cayden Primeau...everyone says he sucks and he's never going to be an NHL goalie and maybe they'll be right.

But personally, it would not shock me at all if when he's 25-26 and in another NHL organization, that he's a legitimate NHL starter. But because we've watched him for so long (and that time reference is relevant, he has less than 150 pro starts) it feels like he's stalled, but his pro experience, especially for a goalie, suggests he's just starting.

Which is why I always say that fans are always the first one who cry about development, yet they often have very little patience for it.

More often than not players bust, so I think this is an acceptable heuristic despite the fact there are outliers.

Kotkaniemi hasn't even hit 0.5ppg in a season (he's on pace for that this year) so I'm not convinced he has really turned a corner. To me it's more like he's gradually approaching at his level: two-way middle6 NHLer with good IQ. I'm rooting for him to succeed beyond that but it's not often a player has five years in the NHL and makes a significant jump in production/performance over that span. I haven't looked into it but usually to my nearly three decades of intensely following the NHL it is rare to see a player enjoy a big increase in PPG over five years in the NHL. Maybe it would be a good research project if some users here propose some names of players they think fit that slow and steady development.

You're 100% correct it's all a matter of perception and there is no real mechanism behind it to which we can point. A player could always turn the corner at any time -- example: Between 05-06 and 12-13 Alex Steen was a player with a PPG of 0.6 to 0.7 (with five seasons of declining production, which got him traded from TOR to STL) then at age 29 in 13-14 he hit 0.91 and followed it with 0.86 and 0.78 PPG he aged out and declined afterward but the late bloom was genuinely surprising to me.

Year-on-year improvement no matter where the prospect finds himself must feel a lot more steady and encouraging than "next year he'll turn the corner" -- we endured a lot of that with Kostitsyn, Galchenyuk, Drouin, and Kotkaniemi and it never bore the fruit we wanted... even though it could have.

Agreed with a lot of this. I mean look at Ryan Nugent-Hopkins this season.

Regarding Slafkovsky, I felt that despite his production at the NHL level it would still be difficult to improve the technical aspects of his game that needed improvement. If he had managed to produce at a better rate then you could say "ReHabs you're dumb. He's a fine playmaker and your eye test is skewed, he's going to be fine". But since he didn't produce well, the question mark is still there. Production is a function of abilities and I felt that it's hard to improve his playmaking in the NHL, at NHL speeds, against NHL opposition. Obviously the Habs organization disagree and many users here are in total sync with the Habs organization so we'll know next year if Slaf has made any gains in his hockey abilities which would then reflect gains in production and performance.

It's also a function of circumstances...Arturri Lehknonen never quite looked like the 25 goal scorer he was pacing to be in Colorado this year, but circumstances lead to him achieving that in a different role on a better team.

If we're circling this back to Slafkovsky, i'm not sure the circumstances were ideal for production to be what people expect it to be for 1st overalls but that's fine, the important thing to remember IMO, is to not get too caught up in the now.

That being said, it likely reinforces the fact that they need to draft a player whose a bit more of a sure thing this year. But that's another topic all together.

 

[Ezpz]

KK is a 60 point player, if you ignore the 5 points in 30 games stretch where he was playing with the literal two best wingers on the Canes in Svech and Necas. And if you don't count the games in which he doesn't get points.

 

[Frank Drebin]

Sure but this is more about our perception, not necessarily an indication of a stalled development.

Our patience as fans, or lack there of, is not how we should measure the progress of a prospect.

It's ironic because, at least what I see, is the fans that preach patience with prospects the most are the first to panic and place blame wherever they can (management ruining/rushing) whenever the players development doesn't track the way they think it should.

Top 6 potential player? He must be producing offensively at all times and get top offensive minutes or he'll forget how to create offense.

Some players are best treated like a time capsule , just forget about them for a few years.

Unfortunately it's nearly impossible to do that

 

[ReHabs]

It's also a function of circumstances...Arturri Lehknonen never quite looked like the 25 goal scorer he was pacing to be in Colorado this year, but circumstances lead to him achieving that in a different role on a better team.

If we're circling this back to Slafkovsky, i'm not sure the circumstances were ideal for production to be what people expect it to be for 1st overalls but that's fine, the important thing to remember IMO, is to not get too caught up in the now.

That being said, it likely reinforces the fact that they need to draft a player whose a bit more of a sure thing this year. But that's another topic all together.

Lehkonen is a very good example of the exceptional cases, his PPG with the Habs range was [0.28 - 0.50] with a mean of 0.38 PPG. With COL his mean PPG in is a whopping 0.79, he's become an impact player at age 27!

Not common that we see this sort of jump but it certainly does happen here and there. For the record I supported selling him but it may prove to be a mistake if Lehk continues showing impact-player level production.

Slaf, agreed. He didn't show 1OA production but it's not the end of the world. Plenty of time left.

As for your final statement, fully 100% entirely agreed. Drafting projects with high draft picks is a fool's errand, the Habs have a longshot on their hands and it's entirely their own fault. I hope Slaf does become an impact player because his physical profile+skating will make him out to be a genuine unicorn of a player but it's a longshot with many points of potential failure between here and there. 40+ game injuries really don't help.

 

[417]

Lehkonen is a very good example of the exceptional cases, his PPG with the Habs range was [0.28 - 0.50] with a mean of 0.38 PPG. With COL his mean PPG in is a whopping 0.79, he's become an impact player at age 27!

Not common that we see this sort of jump but it certainly does happen here and there. For the record I supported selling him but it may prove to be a mistake if Lehk continues showing impact-player level production.

TOI is likely the biggest contributor to that, he was averaging over 20 mins a game with the Avs this year, while his cummulative TOI/g over his career as a Habs was exactly 15:00 TOI/g, not to mention PP TOI/g which went from 0:35 PP TOI/g to 3:35 PP TOI/g in Colorado.

And of course, he got to play with more talented players.

These are the "circumstances" I was referring to earlier.

Who knows how things could have played out had the coaching staff actually tried to play him in a role that wasn't strictly defensive.

Slaf, agreed. He didn't show 1OA production but it's not the end of the world. Plenty of time left.

As for your final statement, fully 100% entirely agreed. Drafting projects with high draft picks is a fool's errand, the Habs have a longshot on their hands and it's entirely their own fault. I hope Slaf does become an impact player because his physical profile+skating will make him out to be a genuine unicorn of a player but it's a longshot with many points of potential failure between here and there. 40+ game injuries really don't help.

I'm a fan of drafting guys who have a large canvas, as long as they're supplemented by more sure fire prospects as well.

So if we're applying that logic to the upcoming draft, if the Habs draft 5-6 and Will Smith or Mitchkov happen to be available, i'm probably leaning towards the former than the latter (ducks for cover).

 

[morhilane]

Lehkonen is a very good example of the exceptional cases, his PPG with the Habs range was [0.28 - 0.50] with a mean of 0.38 PPG. With COL his mean PPG in is a whopping 0.79, he's become an impact player at age 27!

Not common that we see this sort of jump but it certainly does happen here and there. For the record I supported selling him but it may prove to be a mistake if Lehk continues showing impact-player level production.

Slaf, agreed. He didn't show 1OA production but it's not the end of the world. Plenty of time left.

As for your final statement, fully 100% entirely agreed. Drafting projects with high draft picks is a fool's errand, the Habs have a longshot on their hands and it's entirely their own fault. I hope Slaf does become an impact player because his physical profile+skating will make him out to be a genuine unicorn of a player but it's a longshot with many points of potential failure between here and there. 40+ game injuries really don't help.

Those 20 pts on the pp sure are boosting Lehkonen overall production...

His even strength production is at 0.45 ppg this year, it's on part with his good seasons with the Habs since Julien didn't give him power play minutes. He's playing 5 more minutes per games with Colorado too.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

You’re welcome to respond to any comment j make but try to read what I say before you fire off a reply next time.

Or don’t, I can’t make you and it seems you’ve made up your mind anyway

I’ve read your posts. I know your schtick. You’ve screamed about him having zero IQ etc… The fact that you brought Slaf into this after a KK article was posted only underscores it. Please save me the disingenuous nonsense.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

I think you're misreading his posts.

He doesn't hate Slafkovsky -- that would be a nonsensical thing to do. He also no longer or rarely discusses the merits of drafting Slafkovsky.

He makes one main points.
Habs shouldn't be rushing Slafkovsky, particularly if he's a project.

I agree with him that the posters defending the rushing of Slafkovsky on the basis that he's a project will be the first to actually bash him as a human being if he busts.

I haven’t misread anything.

 

[Lafleurs Guy]

Jesus… just noticed that Calgary 15 OTLs! Damn!

WC in the west is about to get interesting if they hold on to win.

15 OTLs is insane.

 

[ReHabs]

I’ve read your posts. I know your schtick. You’ve screamed about him having zero IQ etc… The fact that you brought Slaf into this after a KK article was posted only underscores it. Please save me the disingenuous nonsense.

It’s obviously about Slafkovsky, Kotkaniemi isn’t a Hab anymore and is unlikely to ever wear a Habs kit.

Habs fans like you will never accept reality, so likewise I know your angle very well: the Habs organization can do no wrong, any prospect who fails was never going to succeed, and there are no lessons learned and nothing to change. Rush one prospect and rush all prospects, whatever the Habs do is the right move.

Meanwhile you keep rooting for the team to lose so we can pick up more magic beans. Super but I disagree. I hate this shtick.

I haven’t misread anything.

You haven’t read anything.