Out of Town Thread - New Year's Edition!

[Rapala]

isn't that what Suzuki and Caufield were doing before Caufield got injured?

Except Caufield's season could not have been considered bad until he went down.

 

[LaP]

isn't that what Suzuki and Caufield were doing before Caufield got injured?

They were having a good season.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Except Caufield's season could not have been considered bad until he went down.

They were having a good season.

ah ok, I interpreted "while having a bad season" as "while [the team was] having a bad season".

still tho, Matthews's career goal totals are:

2016-2017: 40G
2017-2018: 34G
2018-2019: 37G
2019-2020: 47G
2020-2021: 41G
2021-2022: 60G
2022-2023: 37G (so far)

is he having a "bad year"? or was 60G the outlier, and he's actually in the 30G-50G range?

 

[MarkovsKnee]

ah ok, I interpreted "while having a bad season" as "while [the team was] having a bad season".

still tho, Matthews's career goal totals are:

2016-2017: 40G
2017-2018: 34G
2018-2019: 37G
2019-2020: 47G
2020-2021: 41G
2021-2022: 60G
2022-2023: 37G (so far)

is he having a "bad year"? or was 60G the outlier, and he's actually in the 30G-50G range?

60g is an outlier. He's a 40-45g, 40-45a player.

 

[Andy]

60g is an outlier. He's a 40-45g, 40-45a player.

The seasons he scored 47 and 41 were 50 goal pace seasons no?

47 in 70 games
41 in 52 games

If you look at the last 4 seasons, this year is an outlier for Matthews in terms of goals. Even in this outlier year, he's still scoring at a 45 goal pace.

Here's Matthews' goal pace since the start of his career:

GP	G	Prorated
82	40	40.0
62	34	45.0
68	37	44.6
70	47	55.1
52	41	64.7
73	60	67.4
67	37	45.3

This year seems to be the outlier no?

His career average right now is 51.2 goals per season.

 

[Mrb1p]

Imagine the shit that Lavoie's coaches have put up with over the years from this corrupt control freak!

I've lived in Chambly and know a bunch of people there... You don't even want to know, man.

 

[la25ecoupe]

Do you think Hawks and BJs will be losing on purpose now since they are only 1 points appart for Bedard?

 

[WeThreeKings]

Do you think Hawks and BJs will be losing on purpose now since they are only 1 points appart for Bedard?

What more can they do?

The players certainly won't.. nobody is purposefully throwing games to lose their job.

 

[LaP]

ah ok, I interpreted "while having a bad season" as "while [the team was] having a bad season".
still tho, Matthews's career goal totals are:
2016-2017: 40G
2017-2018: 34G
2018-2019: 37G
2019-2020: 47G
2020-2021: 41G
2021-2022: 60G
2022-2023: 37G (so far)
is he having a "bad year"? or was 60G the outlier, and he's actually in the 30G-50G range?

Maybe it was. But he's too young to conclude that. He was 24 last year which is the age at which many forwards "breakout". Bad year was maybe a stretch but it's certainly not his best season. Like what i really meant is he doesn't need a career year to reach 40 goals.

 

[Mrb1p]

Maybe it was. But he's too young to conclude that. He was 24 last year which is the age at which many forwards "breakout". Bad year was maybe a stretch but it's certainly not his best season. Like what i really meant is he doesn't need a career year to reach 40 goals.

Hes a 40-50 range goalscorer and 60 was a career year. I think most great goalscorer actually peak pre-25 YO. Ovi, Stamkos, Bure, etc all did.

 

[LaP]

Hes a 40-50 range goalscorer and 60 was a career year. I think most great goalscorer actually peak pre-25 YO. Ovi, Stamkos, Bure, etc all did.

In term of gpg Bure 2nd best season was at 28. When he was 25 years old (the age Matthews is) he had only two 50+ goals season. He added 3 after that despite a short career. I think talking about outliers for a player of Matthews age is kind of silly personally. The first 3 seasons (18-19-20) players are often less productive. His last 4 seasons after that he scored at a pace of 58 goals every 82 games. Two of those 4 seaosn were interrupted by COVID which explain the "low" amount of goals. We'll see in the next 3 years but still i wish we could have a player able to casually score 40+ goals.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

The seasons he scored 47 and 41 were 50 goal pace seasons no?

47 in 70 games
41 in 52 games

If you look at the last 4 seasons, this year is an outlier for Matthews in terms of goals. Even in this outlier year, he's still scoring at a 45 goal pace.

Here's Matthews' goal pace since the start of his career:

GP	G	Prorated
82	40	40.0
62	34	45.0
68	37	44.6
70	47	55.1
52	41	64.7
73	60	67.4
67	37	45.3

This year seems to be the outlier no?

His career average right now is 51.2 goals per season.

btw the reason i didn't prorate was because injury seems like the norm for him. has only played 82 games in his rookie year. so, looks like 50-70 game seasons is what you get with Matthews.

 

[Andy]

btw the reason i didn't prorate was because injury seems like the norm for him. has only played 82 games in his rookie year. so, looks like 50-70 game seasons is what you get with Matthews.

Sure, but it's still important to put his production into proper context.

It's like saying someone isn't a 80 point player because they played 5 seasons of 50 games and put up 75 points in each of those seasons. It's like, yeah, you're technically right, but it's quite such a player is an 80 point level player.

It think it's entirely fair to call Matthews a consistent 45-50 goal scorer if he plays 82 games.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

Sure, but it's still important to put his production into proper context.

It's like saying someone isn't a 80 point player because they played 5 seasons of 50 games and put up 75 points in each of those seasons. It's like, yeah, you're technically right, but it's quite such a player is an 80 point level player.

It think it's entirely fair to call Matthews a consistent 45-50 goal scorer if he plays 82 games.

that if is too big for me can't bring myself to call him a 50G scorer when he's only hit that mark once (and probably never will again, looking at his injury record)

 

[Andy]

that if is too big for me can't bring myself to call him a 50G scorer when he's only hit that mark once (and probably never will again, looking at his injury record)

If your goal is to be technically right, then sure. But I don't think that is what people are referring to when talking about what Matthews brings to a team. It's very clear that regardless of the number of games he plays, you will get a player who scores at a 45-50 goal pace for the games he will play.

Something tells me if Matthews was a hab, you wouldn't be as committed to the technical argument.

 

[Mrb1p]

In term of gpg Bure 2nd best season was at 28. When he was 25 years old (the age Matthews is) he had only two 50+ goals season. He added 3 after that despite a short career. I think talking about outliers for a player of Matthews age is kind of silly personally. The first 3 seasons (18-19-20) players are often less productive. His last 4 seasons after that he scored at a pace of 58 goals every 82 games. Two of those 4 seaosn were interrupted by COVID which explain the "low" amount of goals. We'll see in the next 3 years but still i wish we could have a player able to casually score 40+ goals.

Its pretty common sense that goalscoring peaks before 25.

 

[Andy]

Its pretty common sense that goalscoring peaks before 25.

Interesting how goals take a deep nose dive, but assists stay fairly stable. I wonder what about age affects goal scoring? Does hand-eye coordination decrease? Does you game processing slowdown that you can't identify open ice to score? Does shot power and accuracy decrease?

I'm really intrigued.

 

[Non Player Canadiens]

If your goal is to be technically right, then sure. But I don't think that is what people are referring to when talking about what Matthews brings to a team. It's very clear that regardless of the number of games he plays, you will get a player who scores at a 45-50 goal pace for the games he will play.

Something tells me if Matthews was a hab, you wouldn't be as committed to the technical argument.

if Matthews was a Hab, I'd be really disappointed that our 'potential 50G scorer' keeps getting injured, thus preventing him from scoring more than 30-40 every year ... but then again, that'd be par for the course for a Habs star player

we're talking 6 straight seasons of injuries here

Interesting how goals take a deep nose dive, but assists stay fairly stable. I wonder what about age affects goal scoring? Does hand-eye coordination decrease? Does you game processing slowdown that you can't identify open ice to score? Does shot power and accuracy decrease?

I'm really intrigued.

to me it indicates that goalscoring requires more grit, hustle, physicality... you're trying to beat your dman 1:1, to create separation and get a shot off in a tightly contested situation.

whereas when you're making an assist, you usually have more space to make the play. maybe?

 

[Mrb1p]

Interesting how goals take a deep nose dive, but assists stay fairly stable. I wonder what about age affects goal scoring? Does hand-eye coordination decrease? Does you game processing slowdown that you can't identify open ice to score? Does shot power and accuracy decrease?

I'm really intrigued.

Anything from playstyle, skating speed to contractual status, willpower, training habits, cardiovascular ability and even just proprioception. It makes sense.

Every physical marker peaks around that time.

Bure is actually the only example of a goalscorer peaking later in life, especially when you consider the DPE.

This one is also interesting. Shot rate is somewhat constant but Sh% gets a huge bump around 22.5 YO, I wonder why... Breakout seasons grinders tend to break into the league after 23, for some. Think about RHP, or Moen, Begin, Darche, etc, that clearly skews the data but its hard to explain the whole thing.

 

[LaP]

btw the reason i didn't prorate was because injury seems like the norm for him. has only played 82 games in his rookie year. so, looks like 50-70 game seasons is what you get with Matthews.

He did not miss too many games the last 4 years. Don't forget COVID.>

2019-2020 : played all the games
2020-2021 : missed 4 games
2021-2022 : misse 9 games
2022-2023 : missed 7 games so far

 

[Gaylord Q Tinkledink]

Levi will make his NHL debut on Friday

 

[LaP]

Anything from playstyle, skating speed to contractual status, willpower, training habits, cardiovascular ability and even just proprioception. It makes sense.
Every physical marker peaks around that time.
Bure is actually the only example of a goalscorer peaking later in life, especially when you consider the DPE.

Ovechkin is another one

Ovechkin from 19 yo to 25 yo (same age as Matthews) : 0.61 gpg
Ovechkin from 26 yo to now : 0.61 gpg

 

[morhilane]

Interesting how goals take a deep nose dive, but assists stay fairly stable. I wonder what about age affects goal scoring? Does hand-eye coordination decrease? Does you game processing slowdown that you can't identify open ice to score? Does shot power and accuracy decrease?

I'm really intrigued.

- production drop because the player is asked to be responsible defensively after a few "training" years
- injuries accumulation
- peak physical is 24-25 years old and the older you get the harder it is to keep it at the same level

The good players peak at ~25 and plateau until 30 where they start to regress (there are exceptions), but the average NHL players enter the league at 23-24 years old and leave at 29-30.

 

[Mrb1p]

Ovechkin is another one

Ovechkin from 19 yo to 25 yo (same age as Matthews) : 0.61 gpg
Ovechkin from 26 yo to now : 0.61 gpg

Yeah no, 171 goals in 233 games is the highest GPG I can remember. Especially in like the extended-dpe, it's more impressive.

 

[Team_Spirit]

Its pretty common sense that goalscoring peaks before 25.

Damn the decline is sharp.

Anyone born before 98...