Ottawa 67's 2022-23 Off-Season Thread (Part 4)

[Mild Italian]

The top league would be KHL. So that occupies Tier I
The Swedish Elite League is Tier II
Then it is a tossup between the Finnish League and the NL Swiss league for Tier III. Most would give the nod to the NL but it is more a matter of opinion a that point. It is pretty close and there is a gap between the SEL and those two leagues.

The KHL would easily be considered the top league outside the NHL. The SEL and AHL would be pretty much on par or at least close.

You do get some North American players in the Swiss league but the better North American players usually get paid pretty well in the AHL So it is the players that are somewhat relegated to bouncing between the ECHL and AHL that play in the NL For the better guaranteed $$$.

You see many top NHL draft picks remaining to play in the KHL and SEL. Some of the deeper picks will stay in their respective pro leagues or junior programs as 18 year olds but as 19 year olds, they typically graduate to higher level pro leagues. The advantage for the NHL teams is they hold the player rights longer so there is more runway for the player to improve.

So, it Rohrer’s case, he’s pretty much playing higher than the ECHL but lower than the AHL. From a development standpoint, he would now stagnate. Potentially you could say he is playing at a higher level this year but after this year he’d be playing a lower level. I don’t get the sense he will come play AHL for $70k next year. Why would he? At this point he is more likely to remain in the NL Swiss league and carve out a tidy hockey career where the physicality is far less, fewer games and better money.

The only way he comes back is if Montreal extends him an Entry Level contract because of the Signing bonus and even then if he is making $200k in the NL, he can make similar money staying there in better comfort. He’d really need to feel he is an NHL prospect with the goal of playing NHL at this point. I think he can develop enough in the Swiss league to maybe get some offers from KHL or SEL where he could potentially make a little more $$$. But, if I had to hazard a guess, at this point I see him sticking with the NL Swiss League long term and playing there for 10+ seasons provided he remains healthy.

I just checked the rosters of all the NL teams and found a total of one north american player ( Michael Joly) bouncing between AHL and ECHL, mostly ECHL.
There are 8 north american players with any ECHL games in their career. Without knowing the actual situation at that time, if they played just a handful of games, it was probably more of a conditioning stint or a return after an injury. (Daniel Winnik, Marc Arcobello)
All the other north american players bounced between NHL and AHL if you so want.
There are 8 players

 

[OMG67]

I just checked the rosters of all the NL teams and found a total of one north american player ( Michael Joly) bouncing between AHL and ECHL, mostly ECHL.
There are 8 north american players with any ECHL games in their career. Without knowing the actual situation at that time, if they played just a handful of games, it was probably more of a conditioning stint or a return after an injury. (Daniel Winnik, Marc Arcobello)
All the other north american players bounced between NHL and AHL if you so want.
There are 8 players

That speaks to the relative weakness of the league in general; however, it still makes it somewhat difficult to gauge the strength of the Euros that never played hockey in North America. It is a different game in Switzerland. Far less physical. This is why I suggest it isn’t a developmental league. Probably a fun league to watch though from a spectator point of view.

 

[beastintheeast]

OMG talking aqbout your favorite chess piece Moldenhauer

With the way things are going would you agree that going the USHL NCAA route and not jumping back to the OHL was the smart move for him.

LOL

 

[OMG67]

OMG talking aqbout your favorite chess piece Moldenhauer

With the way things are going would you agree that going the USHL NCAA route and not jumping back to the OHL was the smart move for him.

LOL

It depends on what his goal is. Clearly his top priority was to get an education so from his perspective, things have worked out well. Only time will tell if he ends up being an NHL prospect. There is nuance in every discussion. We always assume the path to the NHL is the most important goal for hockey players so the question is whether his path to the NHL or an NHL contract has benefitted him playing USHL. That’s tough to say. As a CHL player, NHL teams have only two years to make a decision. Many times the decision tends to fall on the optimistic side so they sign the player as a 19 year old. Then they hope he develops. As an NCAA player, the Leafs will have a few more years to evaluate which may work against him if he doesn’t develop as projected. If he does develop as projected, he will get his Entry Level deal and will have burned a handful of income generating seasons going to school.

So, it is always tough to judge at this stage. But let’s try to take a stab at it. Let’s say he decides to play his full four years at Michigan and gets his degree. What will it have cost him? The average contract for a 3rd round pick is $250k signing bonus and an AHL contract worth $80k per year so another $240k. Assuming he signs it after next season at the signing deadline, he would have the choice of remaining in school on scholarship with three more years to graduate or leave school and make $490k to play hockey for three years. So $490k or scholarship? Again, assuming his priority is to get an education and use his scholarship at Michigan, he’d essentially be paying $490k in opportunity cost to stay in school.

The next question is whether he’d develop wel enough in the OHL to get that NHL Entry Level contract. Barring injury, you have to assume he’d likely have not performed less in the OHL than USHL so I’d bet on him getting his Entry Level deal.

This all comes down to $$$. What is better for him? $490k in hand (pre-tax) or the Degree from Michigan? If he signs with the Leafs after his first season at Michigan, what’s the difference between him signing as an OHL player or College player? Apples to apples. You’d need to make the argument that he would not have developed in the OHL to suggest the USHL/NCAA route was better. I’m not sure a player of his talent level would have stagnated in the OHL.

For a player like Moldenhauer, his scholarship isn’t free. He needs to leverage the opportunity cost of not making money playing pro. He’s walking away from $160k per year to stay in school. that is also assuming he doesn’t play one NHL game over any of the three Entry Level contract years. Is that a good decision? I can’t say either way. Only the player can make that decision. Not many players decide to sacrifice an NHL contract and the guaranteed money that comes with it. If he plays the equivalent of one season in the NHL and two in the AHL, he’d walk away from around $800k more to stay in school. It starts to add up fast.

So, it is tough to say what is best but like I said, not many players walk away from he entry level contract when it is offered. We’ll see if Moldenhauer does if he gets that offer.

 

[dirty12]

The St. Andrews - Cornel, Harvard, …route, is the right choice for some because they are elite students.
But for those that will be selected in the top 30, or smaller kids that may slip to round 4 but project to be top OHL players by age 20; I think the US route is needlessly risky. Four years of guaranteed books, tuition, and very likely room & board while being eligible to continue playing high level hockey at any university in Canada is the better option imo.

 

[beastintheeast]

It depends on what his goal is. Clearly his top priority was to get an education so from his perspective, things have worked out well. Only time will tell if he ends up being an NHL prospect. There is nuance in every discussion. We always assume the path to the NHL is the most important goal for hockey players so the question is whether his path to the NHL or an NHL contract has benefitted him playing USHL. That’s tough to say. As a CHL player, NHL teams have only two years to make a decision. Many times the decision tends to fall on the optimistic side so they sign the player as a 19 year old. Then they hope he develops. As an NCAA player, the Leafs will have a few more years to evaluate which may work against him if he doesn’t develop as projected. If he does develop as projected, he will get his Entry Level deal and will have burned a handful of income generating seasons going to school.

So, it is always tough to judge at this stage. But let’s try to take a stab at it. Let’s say he decides to play his full four years at Michigan and gets his degree. What will it have cost him? The average contract for a 3rd round pick is $250k signing bonus and an AHL contract worth $80k per year so another $240k. Assuming he signs it after next season at the signing deadline, he would have the choice of remaining in school on scholarship with three more years to graduate or leave school and make $490k to play hockey for three years. So $490k or scholarship? Again, assuming his priority is to get an education and use his scholarship at Michigan, he’d essentially be paying $490k in opportunity cost to stay in school.

The next question is whether he’d develop wel enough in the OHL to get that NHL Entry Level contract. Barring injury, you have to assume he’d likely have not performed less in the OHL than USHL so I’d bet on him getting his Entry Level deal.

This all comes down to $$$. What is better for him? $490k in hand (pre-tax) or the Degree from Michigan? If he signs with the Leafs after his first season at Michigan, what’s the difference between him signing as an OHL player or College player? Apples to apples. You’d need to make the argument that he would not have developed in the OHL to suggest the USHL/NCAA route was better. I’m not sure a player of his talent level would have stagnated in the OHL.

For a player like Moldenhauer, his scholarship isn’t free. He needs to leverage the opportunity cost of not making money playing pro. He’s walking away from $160k per year to stay in school. that is also assuming he doesn’t play one NHL game over any of the three Entry Level contract years. Is that a good decision? I can’t say either way. Only the player can make that decision. Not many players decide to sacrifice an NHL contract and the guaranteed money that comes with it. If he plays the equivalent of one season in the NHL and two in the AHL, he’d walk away from around $800k more to stay in school. It starts to add up fast.

So, it is tough to say what is best but like I said, not many players walk away from he entry level contract when it is offered. We’ll see if Moldenhauer does if he gets that offer.

This is assuming that he played well enough to warrant the offer. The other side of the coin is he plays and is not the superstar.
We can look at it as if he might have signed, but then again there are always players that do not get signed. Also there is nothing to say that he would not get signed and then sent back to the OHL or another league. An example is Rohrer who got drafted before him.

I agree that IF he was good enough to make the Marlies then he would make money in a few years at the AHL but until he turns OA then there are a lot of unknowns and he would have only made a signing bonus of unknown dollars IF SIGNED,

He has really not lost anything until he is OA and then the 2 years university could be considered.

Then again would I rather have a university degree that I can build a career on and if I am good enough.

 

[OMG67]

This is assuming that he played well enough to warrant the offer. The other side of the coin is he plays and is not the superstar.
We can look at it as if he might have signed, but then again there are always players that do not get signed. Also there is nothing to say that he would not get signed and then sent back to the OHL or another league. An example is Rohrer who got drafted before him.

I agree that IF he was good enough to make the Marlies then he would make money in a few years at the AHL but until he turns OA then there are a lot of unknowns and he would have only made a signing bonus of unknown dollars IF SIGNED,

He has really not lost anything until he is OA and then the 2 years university could be considered.

Then again would I rather have a university degree that I can build a career on and if I am good enough.

I don’t understand what you are trying to say. First, he has not signed an NHL contract so it is speculation no matter how you look at it. If he plays four years of college, that’s four years of risking injury unpaid and uninsured. That’s also four years of potentially not living up to expectation buried in a deep program at Michigan. There are some possible negatives.

When you play amongst your peers in Major Junior in a program with good coaching, if you are a good player, you will develop and play. If he’d have signed with Ottawa, he’d have developed and played. Comparable to USHL? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe he’s a first round pick playing in the OHL. Maybe he’s a 5th. We can’t know for certain.

What I do know for certain is at some point he will likely be offered an NHL contract and he will need to decide if he wants to take a guaranteed $480k with a shot at more if he suits up with the Leafs or does he stay in school and get an education first? Playing NCAA gives him that option. Playing OHL gives him only the option of signing the NHL deal. No one in the OHL is refusing to sign their NHL deal to take advantage of their CIS scholarship.

 

[beastintheeast]

I don’t understand what you are trying to say. First, he has not signed an NHL contract so it is speculation no matter how you look at it. If he plays four years of college, that’s four years of risking injury unpaid and uninsured. That’s also four years of potentially not living up to expectation buried in a deep program at Michigan. There are some possible negatives.

When you play amongst your peers in Major Junior in a program with good coaching, if you are a good player, you will develop and play. If he’d have signed with Ottawa, he’d have developed and played. Comparable to USHL? Maybe, maybe not. Maybe he’s a first round pick playing in the OHL. Maybe he’s a 5th. We can’t know for certain.

What I do know for certain is at some point he will likely be offered an NHL contract and he will need to decide if he wants to take a guaranteed $480k with a shot at more if he suits up with the Leafs or does he stay in school and get an education first? Playing NCAA gives him that option. Playing OHL gives him only the option of signing the NHL deal. No one in the OHL is refusing to sign their NHL deal to take advantage of their CIS scholarship.

I think if I were him, I would take the 1 year at Michigan. Looking at the lineup they have he is definitely going to get ice time there. Then at the end of the season depending on how it goes and what the Marlies look like he could make a decision. I do not see him going to the NHL directly so it depends on how he feels and Toronto feels he is doing in Michigan they may decide that he will develop more and get better ice time in Michigan than with the Marlies. No matter what I see him doing the NCAA route this year. Hery Fantelli and his brother did this route and it did not seem to hurt him

 

[OMG67]

I think if I were him, I would take the 1 year at Michigan. Looking at the lineup they have he is definitely going to get ice time there. Then at the end of the season depending on how it goes and what the Marlies look like he could make a decision. I do not see him going to the NHL directly so it depends on how he feels and Toronto feels he is doing in Michigan they may decide that he will develop more and get better ice time in Michigan than with the Marlies. No matter what I see him doing the NCAA route this year. Hery Fantelli and his brother did this route and it did not seem to hurt him

The point I am making is if he does that then there is no different between going the USHL/NCAA route and the OHL route. He ends up in the same place at the same time.

The USHL and OHL are both quality options for players depending on the person.

 

[beastintheeast]

The St. Andrews - Cornel, Harvard, …route, is the right choice for some because they are elite students.
But for those that will be selected in the top 30, or smaller kids that may slip to round 4 but project to be top OHL players by age 20; I think the US route is needlessly risky. Four years of guaranteed books, tuition, and very likely room & board while being eligible to continue playing high level hockey at any university in Canada is the better option imo.

The only catch is not many players are drafted from the CIAU. You have to remember that these guys are all 17-18 years old when they go the NCAA route. I am sure many of the elite have a solid deal.

If you are not an A student and middle road player for a lot of CDN kids the NCAA route used to be better. The CIAU OHL route has gotten better.
Remember that in the case of Moldenhauer, it was not so much the NCAA route that attracted him to the US but covid rules in Canada and the uncertainty of the OHL.

 

[OMG67]

The only catch is not many players are drafted from the CIAU. You have to remember that these guys are all 17-18 years old when they go the NCAA route. I am sure many of the elite have a solid deal.

If you are not an A student and middle road player for a lot of CDN kids the NCAA route used to be better. The CIAU OHL route has gotten better.
Remember that in the case of Moldenhauer, it was not so much the NCAA route that attracted him to the US but covid rules in Canada and the uncertainty of the OHL.

Dirty wasn’t talking about NHL. He was referring to which is best for a specific player when they have to make a decision at age 16.
The conversation has gotten a little confusing. With respect to Moldenhauer, you shouldn’t take a stance of USHL/NCAA being better for making it to the NHL. The reality is, if you are a good player, you just want to be in the best situation for development. You cannot look at it from a League vs League perspective. Each team provides different levels of de elopement opportunities. A team like London in the OHL and Chicago in the USHL are highly respected programs. Players would be happy to be in either of those programs.

The question comes into play when the player gets drafted to a program that doesn’t have a good reputation. Will a player sacrifice an opportunity in the OHL and go USHL when the team he was drafted to is considered sub par? We’ve seen that quite a bit which is why the league now allows teams to trade defected players.

Dirty wasn’t talking about anything to do with that. ?HE was talking about players leveraging their work for a scholarship. His POV is simple. If you can get an Ivy League education package in the USA, go for it. If you are going to a non-Ivy League School, you are better off playing int he OHL for four years, get your scholarship to a CIS school and get your education that way. This perspective assumes the Pro Hockey route isn‘t a likely option.

there are some inherent risks going to play in the USA on scholarship. You typically have to maintain eligibility. That means you usually have to make the team and maintain grades. Some of the programs are highly competitive and there are situations where full ride scholarships are not honoured because the player didn’t make the team. Many scholarships are not full ride. So, we cannot always assume it is apples to apples.

But, back to Moldenhauer, if his goal is to play NHL, his better option would have been OHL. Just because it worked out ok in the USHL doesn’t make that league more competitive. The OHL is the biggest feeder of NHL talent. No one can argue that. It doens’t mean it is the only league. There are some downsides to the league as well but generally speaking you cannot come on here and point to Moldenhauer and say he “made the right decision.” He made a decision and we assume it is because he wanted to go the NCAA route for whatever his personal reason was.

 

[beastintheeast]

But, back to Moldenhauer, if his goal is to play NHL, his better option would have been OHL. Just because it worked out ok in the USHL doesn’t make that league more competitive. The OHL is the biggest feeder of NHL talent. No one can argue that. It doens’t mean it is the only league. There are some downsides to the league as well but generally speaking you cannot come on here and point to Moldenhauer and say he “made the right decision.” He made a decision and we assume it is because he wanted to go the NCAA route for whatever his personal reason was.

I fully agree that a lot of it depends on the team that drafts them and whether it is the right play. We have all seen kids drafted to the OHL that took the NCAA route and could not handle it or found life was not better.

In Moldenhauer case I think NCAA/ USHL had nothing to do with it. I honestly think that he and his parents simply wanted to play hockey in a league that was playing so that he could develop while they waited for hte4 Ohl to make up their mind.

Then he got drafted by the Steel and a new world opened up for him where he had a choice between 2 good organizations and leagues. Remember he was slow to declare to the NCAA.

Now he has options that he can either stay at the NCAA in a top-tier hockey program, improve his game get a university degree and either play pro hockey or start a new career.
I think being one of the top point-getters in the USHL will probably garner a full ride but you are right teams only have so many they can hand out.

 

[OMG67]

I fully agree that a lot of it depends on the team that drafts them and whether it is the right play. We have all seen kids drafted to the OHL that took the NCAA route and could not handle it or found life was not better.

In Moldenhauer case I think NCAA/ USHL had nothing to do with it. I honestly think that he and his parents simply wanted to play hockey in a league that was playing so that he could develop while they waited for hte4 Ohl to make up their mind.

Then he got drafted by the Steel and a new world opened up for him where he had a choice between 2 good organizations and leagues. Remember he was slow to declare to the NCAA.

Now he has options that he can either stay at the NCAA in a top-tier hockey program, improve his game get a university degree and either play pro hockey or start a new career.
I think being one of the top point-getters in the USHL will probably garner a full ride but you are right teams only have so many they can hand out.

My assumption is he has a full ride. He is an NHL pick. I don’t think he was drafted to the Steel. He went down to play in NJ and I believe he signed with the Steel as a FA near the end of the season with NJ when the OHL was shut down. I agree fully that if the OHL weren’t shut down he’d have been in Ottawa.

the only question is how long he plays in Michigan. The Leafs don’t need to offer him a contract until he leaves school. I’m more wondering if the LEafs would be in a better position to not sign him, give him more development time and try to get his name on a contract after his third season (Junior year). He’d be more mature and if he continues to progress positively, they‘d get a more ready player. Dunno what either side would do.

 

[beastintheeast]

Glad to see that MDP signed with Boston for a year in Providence should definitely help him revive his career

 

[beastintheeast]

My assumption is he has a full ride. He is an NHL pick. I don’t think he was drafted to the Steel. He went down to play in NJ and I believe he signed with the Steel as a FA near the end of the season with NJ when the OHL was shut down. I agree fully that if the OHL weren’t shut down he’d have been in Ottawa.

the only question is how long he plays in Michigan. The Leafs don’t need to offer him a contract until he leaves school. I’m more wondering if the LEafs would be in a better position to not sign him, give him more development time and try to get his name on a contract after his third season (Junior year). He’d be more mature and if he continues to progress positively, they‘d get a more ready player. Dunno what either side would do.

Out of curiosity and I know this won't happen but what happens if he decides he doesn't like Michigan and wanted to come to the OHL.

 

[OMG67]

Out of curiosity and I know this won't happen but what happens if he decides he doesn't like Michigan and wanted to come to the OHL.

Sarnia holds his rights. He’d have to report to Sarnia. If Sarnia chooses, they could trade him or Moldenhauer could force a trade.

The key of it is Sarnia would need to compensate Ottawa based on the conditions of the trade so Sarnia would need more than they have to pay Ottawa. I don’t know what the conditions are but the Draft pick database has the conditions as being released so it is possible Moldenhauer would have needed to be signed prior to this upcoming season. But, I don’t know that for certain.

 

[beastintheeast]

OMG I am bored so here is my queston:

If Shane Wright does not make the Kraken lineup this year does he have to go back to Windsor after the 9 games.

 

[OMG67]

OMG I am bored so here is my queston:

If Shane Wright does not make the Kraken lineup this year does he have to go back to Windsor after the 9 games.

He was an exceptional status player so I believe he has fulfilled his term in the OHL with four years. BUT! He didn’t play four years because of the Pandemic. I am not sure what the rule is but the players were granted a year played froma. Contract perspective and all gained their scholarships so I assume his missed year counts as a year played. I don’t know that as a fact though.

My assumption is he is now eligible for the AHL. I think he has at least a 50% chance of playing AHL this year. His game is not mature enough and the Kraken seem to be strong enough to let him develop for the year in the AHL. So, odds are pretty good he’ll get that extra year of development.

 

[ohloutsider]

He was an exceptional status player so I believe he has fulfilled his term in the OHL with four years. BUT! He didn’t play four years because of the Pandemic. I am not sure what the rule is but the players were granted a year played froma. Contract perspective and all gained their scholarships so I assume his missed year counts as a year played. I don’t know that as a fact though.

My assumption is he is now eligible for the AHL. I think he has at least a 50% chance of playing AHL this year. His game is not mature enough and the Kraken seem to be strong enough to let him develop for the year in the AHL. So, odds are pretty good he’ll get that extra year of development.

He is 1 game short of a full year last season. He played 24 games but he needed 25 games to count as a full year. The Kraken have applied to the CHL to make an exception to to the rule but until the CHL issues the exception he is either NHL or OHL. I believe he will be allowed the exception but until we hear something he might just be back to the OHL, which is really not in his best interest but we will see.

 

[pgfan66]

 

[OMG67]

He is 1 game short of a full year last season. He played 24 games but he needed 25 games to count as a full year. The Kraken have applied to the CHL to make an exception to to the rule but until the CHL issues the exception he is either NHL or OHL. I believe he will be allowed the exception but until we hear something he might just be back to the OHL, which is really not in his best interest but we will see.

Thanks for the clarification. That’s very helpful.

I agree that at this point having Shane Wright in the OHL is useless for him. It will only force the Kraken to play him sparingly at the NHL level. It’s not good for the player, the team, nor is it advantageous for the OHL if he isn’t going to be there anyway.

 

[OnlyUpFromHere49]

Looks like Henry Brzustewicz is considering reporting to OTTAWA after all!

 

[Larionov]

Thanks for the clarification. That’s very helpful.

I agree that at this point having Shane Wright in the OHL is useless for him. It will only force the Kraken to play him sparingly at the NHL level. It’s not good for the player, the team, nor is it advantageous for the OHL if he isn’t going to be there anyway.

Agree 100%, but I'm betting that the OHL is very wary of granting this exception. Once they give it the first time, there will be a lineup of others looking for it in the future. "But you gave it to Shane Wright! My player is just as deserving because blah blah blah...."

I look at it this way, though - Shane Wright was a fourth overall pick and a kid who reminds me a lot of Aaron Ekblad in that he matured early. He'll be 20 in early January. Seattle is a good team, but they aren't the 1977 Habs either - if he can't crack their lineup in camp this fall as a third line winger, that's a huge red flag.

 

[dirty12]

Agree 100%, but I'm betting that the OHL is very wary of granting this exception. Once they give it the first time, there will be a lineup of others looking for it in the future. "But you gave it to Shane Wright! My player is just as deserving because blah blah blah...."

A handful of OHL 19 yr olds played in the AHL for the 2021-22 season; exceptions have been made. It is in the best interest of the CHL to be reasonable when considering the requests of the NHL. Holding a kid back that has nothing to gain by playing in the OHL over a 1 gp technicality is not reasonable.

I look at it this way, though - Shane Wright was a fourth overall pick and a kid who reminds me a lot of Aaron Ekblad in that he matured early. He'll be 20 in early January. Seattle is a good team, but they aren't the 1977 Habs either - if he can't crack their lineup in camp this fall as a third line winger, that's a huge red flag.

 

[OMG67]

A handful of OHL 19 yr olds played in the AHL for the 2021-22 season; exceptions have been made. It is in the best interest of the CHL to be reasonable when considering the requests of the NHL. Holding a kid back that has nothing to gain by playing in the OHL over a 1 gp technicality is not reasonable.

You beat me to it! There have been exceptions and I will add that there are rumours there will be further rules tweaked to allow early exit for top players. Maybe just rumours but enough whispers to assume there is at least discussion.

Also keep in mind that he misses the window because of injury. He was sent back at a reasonable date and IMO if a player is sent back but misses games due to injury, those games should count as a reasonable factor. If he were sent back by the OHL player assignment deadline and he only played those 15 games or so because it was so late in the season ot may be a different discussion.