Confirmed Signing with Link: [OTT] G Linus Ullmark signs extension with the Ottawa Senators (4 years, $8.25M AAV)

[amnesiac]

Well now you're flip flopping.

And as I said in another post (that you conveniently ignored), Ottawa's expected goals against at 5v5 (2.5) last year was the same as Boston's (2.51).

But Boston's goalies made 33 saves that they *shouldn't have* made, and Ottawa's goalies let in 26 goals that they *shouldn't have* let in.

A 60 goal swing because of goaltending, not "systems".

You obviously didn't watch many games if you think coaching was why Korpisalo and Forsberg routinely let in floaters from the blueline.

"expected goals against" is very very subjective. I dont dismiss analytics, but they dont tell the whole story. To say Ottawa's defense independent of goaltending has been on par with Boston's the past few years is quite laughable.

ANyway good luck this year. Hope to see the Sens turn it around.

 

[SensFactor]

Great deal for Sens, Korpi will evetually be bought out by Boston

 

[RogerRogerr]

I probably would’ve wanted to see how things went for a bit before making this kind of commitment. But has a good track records elsewhere can see why you’d make the gamble

Sure, but if he plays well, he has no reason to sign during the season and he might as well just wait and choose his destination.

 

[Tob]

Nothing like Ottawa being Ottawa

 

[SpezDispenser]

Nothing like Ottawa being Ottawa

Ok? When was the last time we signed a Vezina winning goalie in his prime?

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Hutton showed a lot of promise with Nashville but was complete rubbish with the Sabres. Kind of similar to Ville Leino. Good with Philly. Croaked with the Sabres. IIRC, Ullmark was going through some family issues when he was in Buffalo with his father being sick? Unless I'm thinking of Lehner

Except Hutton didn't show much promise with either Nashville or St. Louis (Two top defensive teams btw).

 

[DackellDuck]

"expected goals against" is very very subjective. I dont dismiss analytics, but they dont tell the whole story. To say Ottawa's defense independent of goaltending has been on par with Boston's the past few years is quite laughable.

5v5, Ottawa was similar to Boston last year. In terms of defensive play in most metrics (expected goals against, high and medium danger changes against, CORSI% etc).

The differences between the teams?

Ottawa had horrendous goaltending. Boston's was great.
Ottawa had a horrendous PK. Boston's was top 10.
Ottawa had a bad PP. Boston's was average.

As it so often does, it came down to goaltending and special teams.

In this league, giving up an extra goal per game because of goaltending will absolutely sink you. And that's what happened in Ottawa. Especially when you have a decent, but certainly not great, offense. There was no McDavid or MacKinnon to bail you out.

 

[BruinLVGA]

Ullmark for 4 vs Swayman at 8. As a Sens fan I like this. Happy he is signed.

Because Swayman is 25, Ullmark 31. Not rocket science, Sens fan.

 

[TheNewEra]

Sens really hoping they get 2023 Ullmark with this one.

with how bad korpisolo was last year, i would take ullmark from any season but would be a bit salty if its 18/19 ullmark

 

[JS19]

not true at all....

Youre telling me all the goalies under the likes of: Jacques Lemaire, Hitchcock, Trotz, Montgomery, etc were all great goalies???

off the top of my head:

Pascale Leclaire CLB (had like 10 SO that one year)
Manny Fernandez and Dwayne Roloson MIN
Dan Ellis and Chris Mason NSH
Steve Mason CLB (won Clader)
Brian Elliott, Jake Allen, Jaro Halak STL
Ben Bishop and Khudobin DAL
Darcy Kuemper COL
Adin Hill and Logan THompson VGK

So yes, great goalie stats come from great coaching and sytems much more than their sheer skill.

You don't seem to get it. Just because these goaltenders had hot flash in the pan seasons, doesn't mean it's reasonable to expect this on a regular basis. Especially when you have to factor in teambuild. Many of the same coaches you listed, also had elite goaltenders at some point. See:

- Lemaire w/ Brodeur
- Trotz w/ Rinne and Saros (as a GM)
- Hitchcock w/ Halak (I'm old enough to remember Montreal discussions putting him in elite category but often overshadowed by Price)

The majority of the goaltenders you listed were inconsistent and injury-prone too (particularly, Mason, Leclaire). By this logic, any coach that didn't have a pragmatic defense-first system, must have had garbage goaltenders.

 

[Erik Alfredsson]

5v5, Ottawa was similar to Boston last year. In terms of defensive play in most metrics (expected goals against, high and medium danger changes against, CORSI% etc).

The differences between the teams?

Ottawa had horrendous goaltending. Boston's was great.
Ottawa had a horrendous PK. Boston's was top 10.
Ottawa had a bad PP. Boston's was average.

As it so often does, it came down to goaltending and special teams.

In this league, giving up an extra goal per game because of goaltending will absolutely sink you. And that's what happened in Ottawa.

The eye test matches the numbers here. In my opinion, Ottawa wasn't a team that was horrendously outmatched last year. They held their own and kept up in most games last season, hung on with most teams in play. They maybe made slightly more misplays defensively than the average team, but I don't think by a truly significant margin. The difference was Ottawa's goaltending was terrible, and their special teams sucked.

 

[RogerRogerr]

"expected goals against" is very very subjective. I dont dismiss analytics, but they dont tell the whole story. To say Ottawa's defense independent of goaltending has been on par with Boston's the past few years is quite laughable.

ANyway good luck this year. Hope to see the Sens turn it around.

Then compare with his time in Buffalo, not Boston. I doubt you'd argue that the 2019 and 2020 Sabres were that much better than the Sens. Using GSAA compared to Korpi, that's a 31 goal against swing. That's still massive. Showing you can put slightly above average numbers behind a terrible defense is very valuable when you have a terrible defense.

 

[Rafafouille]

So you wanna do the Leafs strategy with goaltending? Rough.

Yeah, they're a prime example that it works. Constantly at the top of the standings with no name goalies(Then the offense disappears every April)

Forsberg? So you have no interest in a successful season. We've had enough of that...time to try something different.

Oh my God, no. Are you insane lol

I just don't see a difference between Korpisalo, Forsberg, Ullmark, Talbot, etc etc. All 1B goalies that come to die in a terrible system. I don't believe Ottawa has a goalie problem, they have a coaching/D problem and nothing short of a superstar will fix it, Ullmark isn't it. He just had the advantage of playing in good systems(Boston hasn't had a goalie perform poorly in nearly 20 years, Buffalo had Chad Johnson of all people get a .920% in 45gp in Ullmark's debut season. They struggled to score even one goal per game but their D system was great).


To me it just seems they wasted nearly 10% of cap on a B tier goalie. If nothing has changed on the Sens, just like the others he'll struggle to average anything north of .899% this year. The only difference is that he'll be signed mid term to 8.25m instead of dirt cheap like the other Sens goalies.

 

[Butchy Dakkar]

Because Swayman is 25, Ullmark 31. Not rocket science, Sens fan.

Cut down on the salt, Bruins fan

 

[HarrisonFord]

Overpay, but not an overly egregious one. Ottawa didn’t have much of a choice. Term is good.

 

[MXD]

Unlikely. Goalies' prime is usually well into their 30's. Ullmark is just entering his prime.

That's an optimistic assessment of Ullmark if I ever saw one.

 

[Torontonian]

Feels like the caphit might be a tad high, but worth it if Ullmark can actually make Ottawa competitive again. Terrible starts to the season and poor goaltending has sunk Ottawa the last 2 or 3 years.

I think Ottawa would benefit greatly just even being in the thick of the things like how Detroit was last season.

 

[Face Of Bear]

My money is on him not making it to year 4 in Ottawa. It's not the player, it's the franchise.

 

[DackellDuck]

To me it just seems they wasted nearly 10% of cap on a B tier goalie. If nothing has changed on the Sens, just like the others he'll struggle to average anything north of .899% this year. The only difference is that he'll be signed mid term to 8.25m instead of dirt cheap like the other Sens goalies.

Why would you think nothing has changed on the Sens?

They have a new GM, a new coach and have changed out much of the team.

There will be 10 players on the opening night roster tomorrow that weren't on the opening night roster last year. That's half the lineup.

And again, Ullmark put up a SV% north of .910 on terrible Sabres teams. He's played on great teams and brutal teams in his career. He's never been an .899 guy so there's no reason to believe he will be now.

Also, the "other Sens goalies" certainly weren't dirt cheap. Murray was making 6M. Korpisalo 4M. Talbot almost 4M.

So many people are so confident in their "analysis" yet have clearly never watched this team play, or even looked at their page on Puckpedia...

 

[JS19]

Yeah, they're a prime example that it works. Constantly at the top of the standings with no name goalies(Then the offense disappears every April)

I wouldn't say it works. They had to deal with crap performances from Samsonov, injuries from Woll at the worst times, dead cap with Murray (tbf he's been hurt too) in the post-Andersen era. The top of the standings had more to do with their offense than goaltending. Offense disappearing in playoffs is to be expected with clogged passing lanes.

The only positive is that Stolarz might be the guy they've been waiting for if he's able to match his previous performances.

 

[SpezDispenser]

Yeah, they're a prime example that it works. Constantly at the top of the standings with no name goalies(Then the offense disappears every April)




I just don't see a difference between Korpisalo, Forsberg, Ullmark, Talbot, etc etc. All 1B goalies that come to die in a terrible system. I don't believe Ottawa has a goalie problem, they have a coaching/D problem and nothing short of a superstar will fix it, Ullmark isn't it. He just had the advantage of playing in good systems(Boston hasn't had a goalie perform poorly in nearly 20 years, Buffalo had Chad Johnson of all people get a .920% in 45gp in Ullmark's debut season. They struggled to score even one goal per game but their D system was great).


To me it just seems they wasted nearly 10% of cap on a B tier goalie. If nothing has changed on the Sens, just like the others he'll struggle to average anything north of .899% this year. The only difference is that he'll be signed mid term to 8.25m instead of dirt cheap like the other Sens goalies.

Dude....I can tell you from watching that Korpisalo is no good - at all. He's just not.

Forsberg was good until injuries obliterated him, so either he comes back this year and posts respectable numbers, or he's done IMO.

Talbot was balls here. Pure balls. He said he was injured, whatever, the version of Talbot we got was horrible.

Ullmark is unlike these guys to the nth degree. Hearing him speak to the media, seeing him in Boston, seeing him in pre-season. He's already better than any of those guys (I'd argue all of them combined).

My money is on him not making it to year 4 in Ottawa. It's not the player, it's the franchise.

How much $$?

 

[amnesiac]

Then compare with his time in Buffalo, not Boston. I doubt you'd argue that the 2019 and 2020 Sabres were that much better than the Sens. Using GSAA compared to Korpi, that's a 31 goal against swing. That's still massive. Showing you can put slightly above average numbers behind a terrible defense is very valuable when you have a terrible defense.

fair enough.... again, this will all depend on Green and his system. We'll see.

 

[Bourne Endeavor]

Bit of a gamble but one Ottawa has to make imo. They struggle to attract bigger names due to, well, everything, that's happened over the last several years. Now they have someone who wants to be there with a stellar resume.

Ottawa is pushing for a new culture and building towards finally getting over the hump. Signing Ullmark is a big step for them and their stability.

 

[DackellDuck]

I wouldn't say it works. They had to deal with crap performances from Samsonov, injuries from Woll at the worst times, dead cap with Murray (tbf he's been hurt too) in the post-Andersen era. The top of the standings had more to do with their offense than goaltending. Offense disappearing in playoffs is to be expected with clogged passing lanes.

The only positive is that Stolarz might be the guy they've been waiting for if he's able to match his previous performances.

For much of their regular season "run", they also had Freddy Anderson, who certainly wasn't a no name goalie.

They traded more to get him than Ottawa did for Ullmark. It cost them a 1st + 2nd to bring him in from Anaheim, because they recognized the value of goaltending.

And Andersen was a very good goalie in his time there, and is still good (albeit injury prone) in Carolina.

I'll give you the last 2 years, but the weren't at the top of the standings last year. They were in the bottom half of playoff teams.

 

[Senscore]

I just don't see a difference between Korpisalo, Forsberg, Ullmark, Talbot, etc etc.

Really makes you think