Buffalo Bills Onto Week 3 at Miami

[Jim Bob]

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Puppa2Miller]

Some of you guys are harsh graders. The Chargers were playing without their number 1 receiver, lost 2 starting offensive lineman during the game, and Herbert was banged up for critical moments late...and they still gave themselves a shot to beat the Chiefs on the road.

If the Chargers are healthy, they will be a tough out.

 

[kirby11]

Weren’t we aggressive on 4th down against them in the playoffs?

For the most part, yeah. The specific drive I'm thinking of was the Bills first possession coming out of halftime. They'd stopped the Chiefs on a three and out, got the ball back a bit past their own 40. The possession was three straight Singletary runs, including one on 3rd and 2 where he got stuffed for a 2 yard loss. They punted on 4th and 4 from just short of the 50. KC promptly marched down the field for a TD on the ensuing drive IIRC.

Aside from the debacle at the end of regulation/OT, that struck me as the worst sequence of plays for them in the whole game.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I really, *really* hope McD has learned that you can't win against the Chiefs by trying to play the field position game. If you're gonna lose, go out swinging, not punting on 4th and short from midfield and settling for chip shot field goals.

I read an interesting old Kotaku article that compared football to DnD and other turn-based games rather than considering it a time-based game. And, from that perspective, maximizing the efficiency of your turns becomes much more important. You just can't have too many empty possessions and, more importantly, you can't *choose* to have empty possessions. If you're pinned deep, or have a 4th and forever situation? Sure, punt. Outside of that and some time-specific scenarios--i.e. end of the half where turning the ball over on downs means the Chiefs are instantly in FG/TD range or at the end of the game, up multiple scores--willingly giving the ball back to Mahomes seems like a mistake.

I believe they changed their philosophy after the 2020 playoff game against the Chiefs. Ever since then- if my memory is correct- they've been ultra aggressive on offense against the Chiefs. And, really- they're ultra aggressive in general since they have Allen slinging the ball.

Some of you guys are harsh graders. The Chargers were playing without their number 1 receiver, lost 2 starting offensive lineman during the game, and Herbert was banged up for critical moments late...and they still gave themselves a shot to beat the Chiefs on the road.

If the Chargers are healthy, they will be a tough out.

Oh yeah, they're a good team. But I really don't trust their coaching. They have a nasty pass rush, though, which would make a tough matchup for us.

 

[Jim Bob]

 

[Dubi Doo]

I'll blindly take this man's word for it because I like to be optimistic!

 

[Dingo44]

This article aged well

Let’s laugh at the three teams who drafted kickers not named Rodrigo Blankenship

There were actually three teams who passed on drafting Indianapolis Colts rookie stud Rodrigo Blankenship in favor of other kickers.

horseshoeheroes.com

 

[Paxon]

This article aged well

Let’s laugh at the three teams who drafted kickers not named Rodrigo Blankenship

There were actually three teams who passed on drafting Indianapolis Colts rookie stud Rodrigo Blankenship in favor of other kickers.

horseshoeheroes.com

 

[brian_griffin]

If he was as good as everyone says he is he'd have at least made the playoffs by now. It's not that high of a bar.

Really? The AFC is stacked and the West is hyper-competitive. If Herbert and/or the Chargers were in the NFC, I’d agree with you.

I really, *really* hope McD has learned that you can't win against the Chiefs by trying to play the field position game. If you're gonna lose, go out swinging, not punting on 4th and short from midfield and settling for chip shot field goals.

I read an interesting old Kotaku article that compared football to DnD and other turn-based games rather than considering it a time-based game. And, from that perspective, maximizing the efficiency of your turns becomes much more important. You just can't have too many empty possessions and, more importantly, you can't *choose* to have empty possessions. If you're pinned deep, or have a 4th and forever situation? Sure, punt. Outside of that and some time-specific scenarios--i.e. end of the half where turning the ball over on downs means the Chiefs are instantly in FG/TD range or at the end of the game, up multiple scores--willingly giving the ball back to Mahomes seems like a mistake.

My daughter and cousin play D&D, I don’t. But I’m intrigued by the “turns” / possessions concept over time/clock considerations, because it would by default value turnovers and, at a high level, teams who win the turnover battle in games and over the season are highly correlated with individual game wins and season record success. I don’t know that time of possession is as highly correlated. I will search for the article.

 

[Husko]

I generally agree that Herbert has become overrated. I think he’s very good. I have right there in my second tier with Jackson and Burrow. But until he demonstrates some ability to actually win something I’m not putting him into my top tier with Allen, Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers

Really? The AFC is stacked and the West is hyper-competitive. If Herbert and/or the Chargers were in the NFC, I’d agree with you.


My daughter and cousin play D&D, I don’t. But I’m intrigued by the “turns” / possessions concept over time/clock considerations, because it would by default value turnovers and, at a high level, teams who win the turnover battle in games and over the season are highly correlated with individual game wins and season record success. I don’t know that time of possession is as highly correlated. I will search for the article.

Sort of, but not in the way you think. It would see punts as turnovers, that’s the big distinction.

 

[brian_griffin]

I generally agree that Herbert has become overrated. I think he’s very good. I have right there in my second tier with Jackson and Burrow. But until he demonstrates some ability to actually win something I’m not putting him into my top tier with Allen, Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers

But he’s legit top-10 or top-12. I take Herbert over Wilson, Tannehill, etc.
I’d put Carr and Murray (and Watson) in your second tier too, but shade Herbert over Murray and Carr, and I like Carr.

 

[Husko]

But he’s legit top-10 or top-12. I take Herbert over Wilson, Tannehill, etc.
I’d put Carr and Murray (and Watson) in your second tier too, but shade Herbert over Murray and Carr, and I like Carr.

Oh yeah, I 100% agree there. My tiers FWIW:

Tier 1: Allen, Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers
Tier 2: Herbert, Burrow, Jackson
Tier 3: Kyler, Wilson, Watson, Dak, Stafford
Tier 4: Cousins, Carr, Tanny

Not ranked within tiers because I find that fruitless. Seems like the big one you and I disagree on is Carr, who I see as little more than an effective game manager that can only win in a perfect situation and you have right up there with the all pros.

 

[brian_griffin]

Oh yeah, I 100% agree there. My tiers FWIW:

Tier 1: Allen, Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers
Tier 2: Herbert, Burrow, Jackson
Tier 3: Kyler, Wilson, Watson, Dak, Stafford
Tier 4: Cousins, Carr, Tanny

Not ranked within tiers because I find that fruitless. Seems like the big one you and I disagree on is Carr, who I see as little more than an effective game manager that can only win in a perfect situation and you have right up there with the all pros.

I’d put Carr in the 3rd tier. The rest we agree. Not that it matters.
Edit: I see Carr as a fiercer competitor than Cousins, Tannehill. He’ll “ball out” just a little more frequently and a little higher level than the other two, IMO. And I acknowledge that Cousins has some damn good stats behind him, but I’d take Carr in a dogfight (no Vick reference intended).

 

[Zman5778]

Oh yeah, I 100% agree there. My tiers FWIW:

Tier 1: Allen, Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers
Tier 2: Herbert, Burrow, Jackson
Tier 3: Kyler, Wilson, Watson, Dak, Stafford
Tier 4: Cousins, Carr, Tanny

Not ranked within tiers because I find that fruitless. Seems like the big one you and I disagree on is Carr, who I see as little more than an effective game manager that can only win in a perfect situation and you have right up there with the all pros.

I generally agree with your tiers...........but I do wonder if Allen and Mahomes are starting to separate themselves from the two aging HOFers.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

You guys are sleeping on Burrow. He's absolutely in the top tier. He's played behind the league worst OL for his entire career.

I'd also have Watson in tier 2 with the possibility of reaching tier 1 - although it will be interesting to see what he looks like in Cleveland after being away from the game for so long.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I generally agree with your tiers...........but I do wonder if Allen and Mahomes are starting to separate themselves from the two aging HOFers.

In terms of physicality there is already a huge difference.

I think Rodgers is technically still the best in terms of the total package - but i can't stand him or his diva attitude. Which is now affecting the team around him. I expect if he had a similar attitude to Brady he'd still be throwing it to the likes of Davante Adams & would have won a bunch more rings.

Brady has absolutely no business being in the discussion at this point in his career but here we are. The way he raises the level of every single player around him is what keeps him in the top tier.

 

[buffalowing88]

Oh yeah, I 100% agree there. My tiers FWIW:

Tier 1: Allen, Mahomes, Brady, and Rodgers
Tier 2: Herbert, Burrow, Jackson
Tier 3: Kyler, Wilson, Watson, Dak, Stafford
Tier 4: Cousins, Carr, Tanny

Not ranked within tiers because I find that fruitless. Seems like the big one you and I disagree on is Carr, who I see as little more than an effective game manager that can only win in a perfect situation and you have right up there with the all pros.

I think I agree with all of these tiers. I also think the drop-off between 3 and 4 is the drop-off between a guy who can win a Super Bowl and a guy who can win a WC game.

Kyler gets shit and I have piled on him, too, but he's absolutely capable of pulling a game out of his ass in a big spot. We've seen it personally. Same with Watson. I think Reddit's NFL page is very big on virtue signalling and saying he is a bad person so he must suck.

Au contraire. This dude is probably going to put them over the top. Idk how he will handle the tougher weather games in the AFCN but I think if he gets back in rhythm he's going to be an SOB to play against for years to come.

Not even sure on Lamar but he always proves me wrong early on and then he screws up later...so I'll wait that one out. I'm nervous about how dismissive he's been about Miami's defense all week. The Dolphins have a fantastic D and if they had a legit QB I'd consider them a threat, but for a slightly lesser team like Baltimore, this feels like a trap game.

 

[Husko]

I think I agree with all of these tiers. I also think the drop-off between 3 and 4 is the drop-off between a guy who can win a Super Bowl and a guy who can win a WC game.

Kyler gets shit and I have piled on him, too, but he's absolutely capable of pulling a game out of his ass in a big spot. We've seen it personally. Same with Watson. I think Reddit's NFL page is very big on virtue signalling and saying he is a bad person so he must suck.

Au contraire. This dude is probably going to put them over the top. Idk how he will handle the tougher weather games in the AFCN but I think if he gets back in rhythm he's going to be an SOB to play against for years to come.

Not even sure on Lamar but he always proves me wrong early on and then he screws up later...so I'll wait that one out. I'm nervous about how dismissive he's been about Miami's defense all week. The Dolphins have a fantastic D and if they had a legit QB I'd consider them a threat, but for a slightly lesser team like Baltimore, this feels like a trap game.

I agree! That’s exactly the cutoff for me between “would pay” and would look to upgrade.

 

[Husko]

You guys are sleeping on Burrow. He's absolutely in the top tier. He's played behind the league worst OL for his entire career.

I'd also have Watson in tier 2 with the possibility of reaching tier 1 - although it will be interesting to see what he looks like in Cleveland after being away from the game for so long.

I love Burrow. I don’t think putting him in a tier with a recent MVP and the NFLs golden boy is really sleeping on him If he had an mvp caliber year he will probably transcend into tier 1 for me at least

I’d put Carr in the 3rd tier. The rest we agree. Not that it matters.
Edit: I see Carr as a fiercer competitor than Cousins, Tannehill. He’ll “ball out” just a little more frequently and a little higher level than the other two, IMO. And I acknowledge that Cousins has some damn good stats behind him, but I’d take Carr in a dogfight (no Vick reference intended).

With those 3 I think it ebbs and flows. Just 2 years ago everyone was in love with Tannehill as the golden goose of that trio because of his efficiency numbers. Right now it’s Carr because of his big last season. My guess is by years end playing in the OConnell system that Cousins will be the favorite of them by years end.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

I love Burrow. I don’t think putting him in a tier with a recent MVP and the NFLs golden boy is really sleeping on him If he had an mvp caliber year he will probably transcend into tier 1 for me at least


With those 3 I think it ebbs and flows. Just 2 years ago everyone was in love with Tannehill as the golden goose of that trio because of his efficiency numbers. Right now it’s Carr because of his big last season. My guess is by years end playing in the OConnell system that Cousins will be the favorite of them by years end.

None of us have a problem putting Allen in the top tier & he hasn't won a MVP title either. That shouldn't be a prerequisite.

Burrow took his team to the SB in what was his first full season - and very nearly won it. He doesn't have the physical attributes of a Mahones/Allen - although i think he's under rated as an athlete. I also think he has the best processor of all the young guys & he definitely has that X factor that all the top guys have too. He's playing behind the worst OL in the league, doesn't have an elite running game or D to rely on - although he does have one of the best trio of receivers in the league to throw to. He's a stud.

There's a clear top five for me with the realistic possibility of Herbert / Watson being there too. It simply sucks that once Rodgers / Brady retire - ALL of these guys will be in the AFC. Even the younger guys with 'tier 2' potential such as Jones/Tua along with the likes of Jackson are in the AFC. It's totally unbalanced at tbe moment. Hopefully the next group of stud QBs coming out of the draft all find their way to NFC teams.

 

[Dubi Doo]

I generally agree with your tiers...........but I do wonder if Allen and Mahomes are starting to separate themselves from the two aging HOFers.

Hard to say after week one. Rodgers looked terrible in week one last year too, then went on to win MVP. Brady also had an amazing year last year.

The one who is really a dark horse is Watson. I dislike the man w/ every inch of my body, but he was in that Burrow/Herbert tier before all the drama.

Herbert is my bet to take the next step and become a top-3 QB along with Allen and Mahomes. Not sure he'll ever truly be on their level. Allen is like a faster version of him, and I think Allen may have the stronger arm where as Mahomes has the most talented arm Ive ever seen; those side arm passes are a thing of beauty.

 

[Dubi Doo]

None of us have a problem putting Allen in the top tier & he hasn't won a MVP title either. That shouldn't be a prerequisite.

Burrow took his team to the SB in what was his first full season - and very nearly won it. He doesn't have the physical attributes of a Mahones/Allen - although i think he's under rated as an athlete. I also think he has the best processor of all the young guys & he definitely has that X factor that all the top guys have too. He's playing behind the worst OL in the league, doesn't have an elite running game or D to rely on - although he does have one of the best trio of receivers in the league to throw to. He's a stud.

There's a clear top five for me with the realistic possibility of Herbert / Watson being there too. It simply sucks that once Rodgers / Brady retire - ALL of these guys will be in the AFC. Even the younger guys with 'tier 2' potential such as Jones/Tua along with the likes of Jackson are in the AFC. It's totally unbalanced at tbe moment. Hopefully the next group of stud QBs coming out of the draft all find their way to NFC teams.

Funny thing is- it was Cincy's defense that paved the way to their Superbowl appearance. They completely shut Mahomes down in the 2nd half, Stifled the Titans the week prior, and held the Rams offense in check for a while. Not saying Burrow was bad, but he was more of a game manager during that run, which is still reallt good for a young QB, but he wasnt doing anything near what Allen and Mahomes were doing.

And while Burrow has a shit line- he also has perhaps the best skill positions in the league.

I like Burrow a lot, but he's clearly in tier two for me and I personally like Herbert more goong forward. Dude has that it factor as well + is a smart QB + has a cannon for an arm. I wouldnt be surprised if Burrow becomes better. Both are amazing talents.

Im just glad we have Allen because, as you said- the AFC is loaded with QB talent, so I dont think youre going to go far with a QB like Carr/Mac/Tua (assuming they pan out into pretty good QBs)

 

[K8fool]

Josh never forgets .. got to love the improv. That's how you don't lose to the cheatriots coaching fruit of the poison tree In Buffalo.

 

[Rowley Birkin]

Funny thing is- it was Cincy's defense that paved the way to their Superbowl appearance. They completely shut Mahomes down in the 2nd half, Stifled the Titans the week prior, and held the Rams offense in check for a while. Not saying Burrow was bad, but he was more of a game manager during that run, which is still reallt good for a young QB, but he wasnt doing anything near what Allen and Mahomes were doing.

And while Burrow has a shit line- he also has perhaps the best skill positions in the league.

I like Burrow a lot, but he's clearly in tier two for me and I personally like Herbert more goong forward. Dude has that it factor as well + is a smart QB + has a cannon for an arm. I wouldnt be surprised if Burrow becomes better. Both are amazing talents.

Im just glad we have Allen because, as you said- the AFC is loaded with QB talent, so I dont think youre going to go far with a QB like Carr/Mac/Tua (assuming they pan out into pretty good QBs)

Cincinnati's D played well during their run of course - but i wouldn't class them as being elite. The Bills D on the other hand IS elite - yet we don't hold that against Allen.

The only arguement you can really make against Burrow is his elite receiving trio - Chase might be the best WR in the league already, Higgins is a physical beast & Boyd is probably the best pure slot guy out there.. Mixon is also a good back. But none of the other guys mentioned (save for Rodgers tjis year maybe) are throwing to a group of bums.

I just think Burrow gets very under rated because he doesn't have the eye popping physical abilities that everyone salivates over now days.

I'd love to see Burrow play behind even an average OL too - because he damn near gets killed behind that line every single game. None of the other guys have to deal with anything so debilitating.

Herbert has always struck me as a poor man's Allen even in his draft year. Right now he's not much poorer than Allen & can certainly reach that level. But I think he's still definitely in a tier below.