Oilers waive Jack Campbell

[K1984]

No, the team is done with him and should be. It's either a trade out of town or a buyout. There are no other option.

This is the last year where it makes more sense to buy him out too.

If we buy him out this year we have one season where the penalty is only $1.1 before it goes up over $2 for two seasons. If we buy him out in 2025 we are immediately hit with a penalty over $2M for 2 years, so if we didn't buy him out this year we would effectively be carrying him for a $3.9M cap penalty next year for no reason.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

This is the last year where it makes more sense to buy him out too.

If we buy him out this year we have one season where the penalty is only $1.1 before it goes up over $2 for two seasons. If we buy him out in 2025 we are immediately hit with a penalty over $2M for 2 years, so if we didn't buy him out this year we would effectively be carrying him for a $3.9M cap penalty next year for no reason.

Yeah, the dead cap SUCKS, but not as much as "getting disappointed" again by something the team should have expected.

I still wonder if a trade with a retention might be a option if a team does want bring him in. Holding $2+M for 3 years would suck, but it will end after that time.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how things settle in the offseason. I wonder if Nashville would take him as a back up for Askerov or Philly in deal for Ryan Johansen & Peterson.

 

[K1984]

Yeah, the dead cap SUCKS, but not as much as "getting disappointed" again by something the team should have expected.

I still wonder if a trade with a retention might be a option if a team does want bring him in. Holding $2+M for 3 years would suck, but it will end after that time.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how things settle in the offseason. I wonder if Nashville would take him as a back up for Askerov or Philly in deal for Ryan Johansen.

If there were a deal that allowed us to retain only $2M for 3 years I would jump on it, but I'm not sure if that deal is there. We don't have many assets to spare, and I would hate to give up something that could be parlayed at the deadline for something good (1st or 2nd rounder) only to dump Campbell.

Cap hits on a buyout this year are:

$1.1
$2.3
$2.6
$1.5
$1.5
$1.5

By the time the $1.5M penalties are in effect that might be damn near the value of a league minimum deal in the NHL. Those years are almost irrelevant in my view, it's more how we can dance around the penalties that go over $2M in two very tight cap seasons (assuming we re-up Leon, Bouchard and McDavid).

 

[bone]

After an initial rocky start in the AHL Campbell has had a save percentage above .900 in 16 of his last 18 games started. There was another game in that stretch that he was under .900 but he came on in relief for Rodrique half way through the game which was not a good night for the Condors as they ended up loosing 7-3 to one of the AHL's worst teams in the Baby Sharks.

He deserves credit for making the best of the situation and continuing to focus on his play. He has had some good games against the teams at the top of the Pacific division with the Condor's being stuck in a four team log jam in the middle of the division. Yes the expectations were higher and the contract currently still sucks, but there's positive progress and maybe an redemption arc?

Campbell's Overall AHL stats:
16W 12L 2.58 .920 3SO

Rodrigue has had a decent season, but his play has dipped a bit after new years, when Campbell found his game.

Since Christmas 12-6, 2.12, .936.

I'd say he's rebounded nicely.

 

[bone]

If there were a deal that allowed us to retain only $2M for 3 years I would jump on it, but I'm not sure if that deal is there. We don't have many assets to spare, and I would hate to give up something that could be parlayed at the deadline for something good (1st or 2nd rounder) only to dump Campbell.

Cap hits on a buyout this year are:

$1.1
$2.3
$2.6
$1.5
$1.5
$1.5

By the time the $1.5M penalties are in effect that might be damn near the value of a league minimum deal in the NHL. Those years are almost irrelevant in my view, it's more how we can dance around the penalties that go over $2M in two very tight cap seasons (assuming we re-up Leon, Bouchard and McDavid).

The ghost of James Neal still cost us from improving our team this year. It's easy to think that money 4-6 years in the future isn't a big deal, but if the plan is to keep McDavid and Draisaitl for another long term contract, that money will impact the ability to improve the team during their time on the team.

 

[Soundwave]

If there were a deal that allowed us to retain only $2M for 3 years I would jump on it, but I'm not sure if that deal is there. We don't have many assets to spare, and I would hate to give up something that could be parlayed at the deadline for something good (1st or 2nd rounder) only to dump Campbell.

Cap hits on a buyout this year are:

$1.1
$2.3
$2.6
$1.5
$1.5
$1.5

By the time the $1.5M penalties are in effect that might be damn near the value of a league minimum deal in the NHL. Those years are almost irrelevant in my view, it's more how we can dance around the penalties that go over $2M in two very tight cap seasons (assuming we re-up Leon, Bouchard and McDavid).

The 2.3 and 2.6 in the years Drai/Bouchard + McDavid need to be resigned really sucks.

Honestly he should be given a look behind Knoblaugh's system, if he could put up even a .905, you could probably move him with say 1 million retention instead.

We're in a really weird situation with all this.

 

[K1984]

The ghost of James Neal still cost us from improving our team this year. It's easy to think that money 4-6 years in the future isn't a big deal, but if the plan is to keep McDavid and Draisaitl for another long term contract, that money will impact the ability to improve the team during their time on the team.

It will for sure if we f*** more contracts up. The Neal buyout would more or less be irrelevant if we weren't sitting on a near $4M Campbell penalty.

If we keep our slate clean and not find ourselves in another anchor deal then I don't think that a $1.5M penalty if the cap is somewhere around $95M is something to be worried about. At the end of the day it's pretty much a moot point, either we try and maneuver around a $1.5M penalty in 2027 or maneuver around $5M for Campbell when trying to sign Drai/Connor/Bouch.

Not saying this is your take, but the way some people have a fundamentalist view of buyouts in the sense of "cap penalty bad, no dead cap, can't buyout because of penalties" makes no sense to me. It's like an emotion rather than a practical analysis. Carrying a shitty overpaid player is a penalty in and of itself, just because they happen to be taking up a roster spot doesn't change that it is also dead cap space.

 

[Soundwave]

It's also where that stupid Connor Brown performance bonus hurts badly, if we were getting the full 5 million cap increase next year like basically every other team instead of stupidly giving 3.25 million of that to Brown, giving Campbell some time to boost his trade value next season and avoid a dumb buy out on him would be much more workable.

 

[La Bamba]

The ghost of James Neal still cost us from improving our team this year. It's easy to think that money 4-6 years in the future isn't a big deal, but if the plan is to keep McDavid and Draisaitl for another long term contract, that money will impact the ability to improve the team during their time on the team.

I wouldn’t call it the ghost of Neal.. it’s more like the ghost of Lucic/Chiarelli..

 

[Stoneman89]

I wouldn’t call it the ghost of Neal.. it’s more like the ghost of Lucic/Chiarelli..

Neal is the substitute ghost.

 

[bone]

It will for sure if we f*** more contracts up. The Neal buyout would more or less be irrelevant if we weren't sitting on a near $4M Campbell penalty.

If we keep our slate clean and not find ourselves in another anchor deal then I don't think that a $1.5M penalty if the cap is somewhere around $95M is something to be worried about. At the end of the day it's pretty much a moot point, either we try and maneuver around a $1.5M penalty in 2027 or maneuver around $5M for Campbell when trying to sign Drai/Connor/Bouch.

Not saying this is your take, but the way some people have a fundamentalist view of buyouts in the sense of "cap penalty bad, no dead cap, can't buyout because of penalties" makes no sense to me. It's like an emotion rather than a practical analysis. Carrying a shitty overpaid player is a penalty in and of itself, just because they happen to be taking up a roster spot doesn't change that it is also dead cap space.

I guess my point is moreso that all efforts to move Campbell without buying out and stretching the pain out 6 years must be explored no matter how punitive they may be.

Other teams have found ways to move similarly bad contracts, so Edmonton should do everything in their power to do the same. Look no further than the Cal Peterson trade. Exact same contract (but one less year) on a player with less of a resume and much worse numbers in the AHL once demoted.

 

[tiger_80]

Campbell is the cousin of Stone?

I wouldn’t call it the ghost of Neal.. it’s more like the ghost of Lucic/Chiarelli..

Keep the f***er in the ECHL if it saves 5M in cap space.

 

[Perfect_Drug]

No, the team is done with him and should be. It's either a trade out of town or a buyout. There are no other option.

Why are you taking such an absolute position on him when he's basically turned it around to become one of the best goalies in the AHL? I get that he's had a rough couple of years here, but we absolutely need to make sure we're not paying to get rid of a serviceable goalie.

The cost to get rid of him is absolutely astronomical, but that cost goes down each year of his contract that we burn.

 

[K1984]

I guess my point is moreso that all efforts to move Campbell without buying out and stretching the pain out 6 years must be explored no matter how punitive they may be.

Other teams have found ways to move similarly bad contracts, so Edmonton should do everything in their power to do the same. Look no further than the Cal Peterson trade. Exact same contract (but one less year) on a player with less of a resume and much worse numbers in the AHL once demoted.

Price to move Petersen was a good roster player (Walker) plus a second round pick. We just don't have that to give up, and I think tossing away a 1st (and maybe even a 1st+) to save a moderate cost on a Campbell buyout would be a massive mistake. Possibly even a cup costing mistake if next season ends up being our last to compete for a cup and we don't have a 1st to deal at the deadline.

 

[guymez]

Why are you taking such an absolute position on him when he's basically turned it around to become one of the best goalies in the AHL? I get that he's had a rough couple of years here, but we absolutely need to make sure we're not paying to get rid of a serviceable goalie.

The cost to get rid of him is absolutely astronomical, but that cost goes down each year of his contract that we burn.

IMO Campbell should remain in the AHL for the remainder of this season. No reason at all to mess with the tandem of Pickard and Skinner.
Evaluate the Campbell situation next season.
Once training camp starts then he can compete for an NHL job BUT if I am Knoblauch I am giving preference to Pickard and Skinner and Campbell is going to have to be lights out if he wants an NHL roster spot.
I dont trust him at all as an option for a #1A or a #2 for this team.
IMO he is done as an NHL goalie for this team but his departure has to be manufactured in a way that it doesnt impact the team too badly next season.
I wouldnt be adverse to him being in the AHL next year either.

 

[bone]

Price to move Petersen was a good roster player (Walker) plus a second round pick. We just don't have that to give up, and I think tossing away a 1st (and maybe even a 1st+) to save a moderate cost on a Campbell buyout would be a massive mistake. Possibly even a cup costing mistake if next season ends up being our last to compete for a cup and we don't have a 1st to deal at the deadline.

If we don't have the money to acquire the player that you'd get for that first are you any further ahead?

 

[K1984]

If we don't have the money to acquire the player that you'd get for that first are you any further ahead?

I'd put the odds of acquiring a quality player at the deadline much, much higher with a 1st in our pocket and Campbell bought out (which we managed this year even with Campbell's cap hit) vs. no 1st and Campbell gone. The cap difference in the two scenarios? $1.1M - not a material amount.

 

[tiger_80]

The Oilers will trade Jack Campbell for jackass.

 

[Aerchon]

I wouldn’t call it the ghost of Neal.. it’s more like the ghost of Lucic/Chiarelli..

Holland is the king of buyouts and bad cap management.

Better or worse than Chiarelli... who cares. Holland is bad and made a bad situation even worse. I'd personally prefer not to go back to the Chiarelli blaming well, when obviously Holland is 110% responsible for his own piss poor cap management.

 

[K1984]

Holland is the king of buyouts and bad cap management.

Better or worse than Chiarelli... who cares. Holland is bad and made a bad situation even worse. I'd personally prefer not to go back to the Chiarelli blaming well, when obviously Holland is 110% responsible for his own piss poor cap management.

How?

I was perfectly comfortable with Hyman on the roster while eating the Neal cap penalty vs. doing what the Flames did and carrying a $6M anchor around for multiple seasons, including one where they were supposedly looking to compete. Again the $6M cap space that the Flames had to carry by keeping Lucic was just as "dead" as the cap penalty for Neal, just that it was $4M higher and you had to keep a liability on your roster for the pleasure.

One might even say that that deal may have won us that series by virtue of Hyman being a consistent and major contributor in it and Lucic being a matchup dream for the Oilers.

 

[Jimmi McJenkins]

Why are you taking such an absolute position on him when he's basically turned it around to become one of the best goalies in the AHL? I get that he's had a rough couple of years here, but we absolutely need to make sure we're not paying to get rid of a serviceable goalie.

The cost to get rid of him is absolutely astronomical, but that cost goes down each year of his contract that we burn.

Because he's a $5M player who failed the team twice in a row. There's NO reason to expect things to be different. It's why you MOVE ON. It's why the team is planning to do so.

 

[Canovin]

If Campbell returns and takes the starting role. 7.6M for two goalies(Campbell+Skinner) is just about right where teams are spending on 2 goalies. If anything that's on the cheap side.

 

[K1984]

If Campbell returns and takes the starting role. 7.6M for two goalies(Campbell+Skinner) is just about right where teams are spending on 2 goalies. If anything that's on the cheap side.

If I win the lottery tomorrow I'm going to quit my job and rent a house on the beach in California for a month.

About the same odds of Campbell coming in and establishing himself in the starter's role.

 

[Canovin]

If I win the lottery tomorrow I'm going to quit my job and rent a house on the beach in California for a month.

About the same odds of Campbell coming in and establishing himself in the starter's role.

There's a decent chance Campbell can retake his spot. Like I said, 7.6M on both goalies is about right. Most teams are spending closer or over 10M for a tandem.

 

[nerevarine]

Much rather give him another shot than ever consider buying out that contract

Skinner has looked like garbage throughout the year as well and so many years of dead cap is terrible, its the main reason calgary so heavily won the lucic neal swap