Oilers waive Jack Campbell

[OilerTyler]

Remove his abysmal start and he's probably been the best since january.

Its how he's climbed to 6th in save%. Even climbed ahead of O-Rod.

If he keeps it up he'll likely finish top 3 in short order.

The problem for Campbell is Skinner and Pickard are doing the same thing but in the NHL. Since Knob took over they are 4th and 7th (minimum 10 games played) in the NHL in save percentage.

Why are we trying to fix what isn't broken?

 

[KeithIsActuallyBad]

The problem for Campbell is Skinner and Pickard are doing the same thing but in the NHL. Since Knob took over they are 4th and 7th (minimum 10 games played) in the NHL in save percentage.

Why are we trying to fix what isn't broken?

Sunken cost fallacy.

 

[ChaoticOrange]

Arguably the best goalie in the AHL.

It would be a short argument, he’s not even the best goalie on the Condors

 

[Tobias Kahun]

It would be a short argument, he’s not even the best goalie on the Condors

Hes better than Rodrigue, I'd say hes the better condors goalie.

 

[foshizzle]

My take is a simple one. If you’re going to buy out Campbell, the organization needs to make sure that makes fiscal sense to do so. If the oilers buy him out- and LA signs him for dirt cheap (they will) and he returns to form- Oilers are paying a division rival to have a number one goalie while they invested the time and money to rehabilitate him. It would be horrible asset management.

A tangent- when the F is Sylvain Rodrigue going to get a chance to coach with the big club. Stauffer has said other NHL teams took a hard look at him last year. My guess he is with an NHL club next year. The dude has done a phenomenal job with the goaltending on the farm. He resurrected Skinner when he sucked balls and was demoted to the ECHL, and now is doing it with Campbell.

 

[Broberg Speed]

I think as long as they are winning series they will juggle between Skinner and Pickard until they get eliminated. Only an injury would see Jack with the big club. I also think it's probably best for him to finish out his strong play in the AHL, and completely prepare for vying for a role in next season's training camp. It's far too late to bring him up and "see what he's got" as it would be small sample size with little games left.

The current duo have played well enough, to try and bring Jack back this season would not be good vote of confidence for Skinner or Pickard during post-season time, don't ruin their mojo.

That's probably what the club does but maybe the Edmonton Oilers win a cup if Campbell goes on a heater and they oust a couple of teams that they wouldn't have beat without the goaltender winning games for them.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The problem for Campbell is Skinner and Pickard are doing the same thing but in the NHL. Since Knob took over they are 4th and 7th (minimum 10 games played) in the NHL in save percentage.

Why are we trying to fix what isn't broken?

Depth is never a bad thing. We might well have 3 goalies playing well heading into the playoffs. That gives us options in case of injury or slumps. Too bad Rodrigue hasn't at least gotten 1 NHL game in to date.

 

[Soundwave]

The problem for Campbell is Skinner and Pickard are doing the same thing but in the NHL. Since Knob took over they are 4th and 7th (minimum 10 games played) in the NHL in save percentage.

Why are we trying to fix what isn't broken?

Because there are significant cap consequences for a buy out, particularly in year's where Draisaitl + Bouchard and McDavid need raises.

Now lets look at this logically ... either Skinner and Pickard went from one of the worst goalies in the league by save percentage and a the other guy being in the AHL for several years just a few short months ago and are both star goalies OR Knoblaugh's system is doing a big amount of heavy lifting and there's a fair probability that more than a few goalies could put up good numbers behind that improved defensive system.

Which is more likely?

If it's the second scenario, then this team will have been very stupid to commit to a 6 year buy out of a player because they got frustrated over 5 games where the other goalie (Skinner) was even worse and then never gave the other guy a chance even after improving massively in the AHL.

It's a shit situation to be in, but it's the type of dumb situations our GMs some how manage to get us into.

 

[Broberg Speed]

Because there are significant cap consequences for a buy out, particularly in year's where Draisaitl + Bouchard and McDavid need raises.

Now lets look at this logically ... either Skinner and Pickard went from one of the worst goalies in the league by save percentage and a the other guy being in the AHL for several years just a few short months ago and are both star goalies OR Knoblaugh's system is doing a big amount of heavy lifting and there's a fair probability that more than a few goalies could put up good numbers behind that improved defensive system.

Which is more likely?

If it's the second scenario, then this team will have been very stupid to commit to a 6 year buy out of a player because they got frustrated over 5 games where the other goalie (Skinner) was even worse and then never gave the other guy a chance even after improving massively in the AHL.

It's a shit situation to be in, but it's the type of dumb situations our GMs some how manage to get us into.

I would like to see an impartial competition and for the cream to rise to the top.

I think it's fair to say that Campbell has out goalied Rodrigue, when we know the circumstances weren't in his favor.

How long did it take for Campbell to get back to back starts in Bakersfield? How many times has that even happened? Yet he persevered and then he succeeded.

Now give Campbell a shot in the NHL. That shouldn't even take into consideration next season or beyond. That's what good clubs do.

 

[Dazed and Confused]

How long did it take for Campbell to get back to back starts in Bakersfield? How many times has that even happened? Yet he persevered and then he succeeded.

Now give Campbell a shot in the NHL. That shouldn't even take into consideration next season or beyond. That's what good clubs do.

He got a ton of b2b starts his first weeks there. It was a major element that helped sandbag him at the start.

The organisation finally realised that, and more or less gave him December off to get his head on straight. He's responded by being arguably the best goalie in the AHL in 2024. Good timing, as Rodrigue's supernova start has faded.

I think people are glossing over this, he hasn't just sported a quality .920 over the last 3 months. No, he brought a sh*t, sub .900 SV% to .920 over the course of 20 games in 3 months.


I posted this in the Bakersfield thread, I wouldn't be surprised to see him called up at the end of the season and starting games 80 and/or 81.

But unless there are injuries, it doesn't make much sense to do so earlier. He's doing well in Bakersfield, Skinner and Pickard are doing well in Edmonton, plus the team is saving about 400k in (much-needed) cap space; There's no reason to rock the boat and mess with a good thing, especially when there's a clear logical window for a call-up at the end of the season.

 

[Fourier]

Because there are significant cap consequences for a buy out, particularly in year's where Draisaitl + Bouchard and McDavid need raises.

Now lets look at this logically ... either Skinner and Pickard went from one of the worst goalies in the league by save percentage and a the other guy being in the AHL for several years just a few short months ago and are both star goalies OR Knoblaugh's system is doing a big amount of heavy lifting and there's a fair probability that more than a few goalies could put up good numbers behind that improved defensive system.

Which is more likely?

If it's the second scenario, then this team will have been very stupid to commit to a 6 year buy out of a player because they got frustrated over 5 games where the other goalie (Skinner) was even worse and then never gave the other guy a chance even after improving massively in the AHL.

It's a shit situation to be in, but it's the type of dumb situations our GMs some how manage to get us into.

You don't help the cap situation in the years Draisaitl and McDavid's deals are up by having Campbell on the roster. That does not mean it could not be the right decision. But at A $5M cap hit he has to be the clear starter. It can't be close.

Assuming he is not going to be that automatic starter but that he shows he can play at a level close to what was expected. A buyout might not be the best option if he can rehabilitate his value. A trade with retention might well be the way to go. Would Campbell at $3.5M have value to a team? If he plays like he has lately I think he does. The Oilers could retain $500K and get a third team to retain $1M. The cost of that retention for 3 years would not be all that much especially if the Oilers took something back.

As crazy as it sounds this could be a deal involving four teams.

To Philadelphia; Jack Campbell at $3.75M

To Edmonton: Cal Petersen at $2.5M, (Edmonton retains $500K of Campbell's salary)

To Chicago: Cody Ceci, (Chicago retains $750K of Campbell's salary), Edmonton 2024 6th

To Detroit: Philadelphia's 2024 3rd (Detroit retains half of Petersen's deal.), Edmonton 2024 6th

Edmonton buys out Petersen.

The cap implications for Edmonton would be:

2024-25 Retention: $500k Buyout: $500K
2025-26 Retention: $500K Buyout: $1M
2025-26 Retention: $500K

The cost to Detroit after an Edmonton Buyout would be $2M in real money, $500K retention in 2024-25, $1M retention in 2025-26.

For Philadelphia the cost of Campbell next year is about the same as the cost to buyout Petersen and pay a lower level back-up. So they get a year to test drive Campbell. If he falters they could buy him out fairly cheaply in the off season of 2025. If he bounces back this is a win.

 

[OilerTyler]

Depth is never a bad thing. We might well have 3 goalies playing well heading into the playoffs. That gives us options in case of injury or slumps. Too bad Rodrigue hasn't at least gotten 1 NHL game in to date.

Like @Dazed and Confused said I could see Campbell getting a single start later in the season against the Sharks or Coyotes just to give Skinner and Pickard a little rest before the playoffs. I'm assuming he'll be back on the Condors roster for their playoffs though. I really don't see a path for him to get any significant minutes in the NHL this season barring injury.

 

[CROTT]

He got a ton of b2b starts his first weeks there. It was a major element that helped sandbag him at the start.

Campbell got the lion share of starts when he was first sent down in november some consecutive, but has only had one set of b2b games where he started both which was in February. I think that is what you meant, but maybe used a slightly confusing term as starting two games in two nights is a lot different that starting consecutive games with 1 or more days between them.

Campbell had three bad starts in his first week, followed it up with three good starts. And then followed that up with three sub .900 starts in four after that he has been good. I think those first three starts is where Campbell got the bad in the AHL rep, should they have maybe given him some time off after the his second start. Yes that I can see your reasoning with, but in the end he has been over .900 in 20 of his 25 starts since that initial three games.

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Yeah, the dead cap SUCKS, but not as much as "getting disappointed" again by something the team should have expected.

I still wonder if a trade with a retention might be a option if a team does want bring him in. Holding $2+M for 3 years would suck, but it will end after that time.

Either way, it will be interesting to see how things settle in the offseason. I wonder if Nashville would take him as a back up for Askerov or Philly in deal for Ryan Johansen & Peterson.

I do whatever it takes to dump the deal with the Sharks who are in full on tank mode with a ton of cap space and could use a goalie/victim to backstop that team. Grier has shown he’s playing in amateur hour as a GM and will sell his own mother for prospects and draft picks right now.

Retention, a buyout or demotion to the minors kills us at deadline time as we’ve seen. The window is now, move him before free agency opens up and clear the cap.

That cap space is the purest of Inca gold. Draft picks and our middling prospects won’t help us win now.

 

[bone]

This is why. It didnt' take until almost 30 years old for Skinner to establish himself as even an AHL starter, let alone NHL.

Campbell has had a roller coaster career pretty much from Day 1. With this player there is a track record of nearly 10 years years of up and down play in all 3 leagues at various times (NHL/AHL/ECHL), about two and a half years of NHL quality play with any consistency.

No offence to you, but I can't personally figure out how anyone can look at Campbell's track record and think "maybe he can turn it around." There is literally nothing in his breadth of work looking back over a decade that could possibly indicate this as a strong possibility, enough to risk bringing him back.

The consequences of him repeating this next year could be as dire as being the one thing that costs us our last chance at winning the Cup. The flip side of that might, might be (if we're lucky) the ability to move him for limited or no retention should he play well next year. Call me crazy, but I am more than willing to sign up for the relatively benign cap penalty to eliminate the risk that this player single handedly ruins a compete season next year.

I certainly see both sides of the debate.

Most tend to be on your side of the debate, so I'm just providing support for the counter point. I won't be overly upset if they do buy him out, I'm just presenting what I see as a reasonable counter point to the argument of him being "washed". I doubt he's ever a desired option at $5M, but I do think a team could end up being quite happy with him at $2.5M.

A quick look at AHL goalie stats shows that isn't true.

6th in league wide save percentage, despite those terrible first few weeks.

 

[russ99]

Because there are significant cap consequences for a buy out, particularly in year's where Draisaitl + Bouchard and McDavid need raises.

Now lets look at this logically ... either Skinner and Pickard went from one of the worst goalies in the league by save percentage and a the other guy being in the AHL for several years just a few short months ago and are both star goalies OR Knoblaugh's system is doing a big amount of heavy lifting and there's a fair probability that more than a few goalies could put up good numbers behind that improved defensive system.

Which is more likely?

If it's the second scenario, then this team will have been very stupid to commit to a 6 year buy out of a player because they got frustrated over 5 games where the other goalie (Skinner) was even worse and then never gave the other guy a chance even after improving massively in the AHL.

It's a shit situation to be in, but it's the type of dumb situations our GMs some how manage to get us into.

What's the alternative, keep that massive contract on the cap rolls and sacrifice regular season games in the hope that he returns to form enough to get a team interested in a deal? His AHL numbers are decent but NHL competition is a whole different animal, and his confidence is so shaky that even a bad period could start a spiral again.

Truth is we're eating cap either way, nobody is taking that contract even if he plays lights out, since the league knows his track record of consistency, or lack thereof.

It's a sunk cost, buy him out, bite the bullet. If he puts up average numbers on a show-me 1 year deal somewhere else, happy for him, but not our problem.

Cap hit on a buyout is only painful in year 3, when it's $2.6M. Year 1 is $1.1M and years 4-6 are $1.5M. The cap is going up, and that's a pittance when/if reupping Connor and Leon, we'd need to move a NMC forward contract to afford that anyway.

 

[russ99]

I do whatever it takes to dump the deal with the Sharks who are in full on tank mode with a ton of cap space and could use a goalie/victim to backstop that team. Grier has shown he’s playing in amateur hour as a GM and will sell his own mother for prospects and draft picks right now.

Retention, a buyout or demotion to the minors kills us at deadline time as we’ve seen. The window is now, move him before free agency opens up and clear the cap.

That cap space is the purest of Inca gold. Draft picks and our middling prospects won’t help us win now.

Why waste valuable picks and prospects to dump a bad contract, not to mention, I don't see any deal for Campbell where the Oilers don't have to retain cap.

Use those assets to improve the team or as sweetener to move Kane out to clear capspace for a Connor/Leon reup.

 

[K1984]

What's the alternative, keep that massive contract on the cap rolls and sacrifice regular season games in the hope that he returns to form enough to get a team interested in a deal? His AHL numbers are decent but NHL competition is a whole different animal, and his confidence is so shaky that even a bad period could start a spiral again.

Truth is we're eating cap either way, nobody is taking that contract even if he plays lights out, since the league knows his track record of consistency, or lack thereof.

It's a sunk cost, buy him out, bite the bullet. If he puts up average numbers on a show-me 1 year deal somewhere else, happy for him, but not our problem.

Cap hit on a buyout is only painful in year 3, when it's $2.6M. Year 1 is $1.1M and years 4-6 are $1.5M. The cap is going up, and that's a pittance when/if reupping Connor and Leon, we'd need to move a NMC forward contract to afford that anyway.

Insane to me that people think that people think that those cap penalties are so severe that it's worth gambling with the most important position (not to mention our cap position). It isn't possible to describe the $1.5M penalties as anything other than totally inconsequential, especially with a cap that is probably at least $93M by the time those hits come into effect. It's literally irrelevant.

 

[McFlyingV]

Don't expect Campbell to ever be the answer here but his recent good play is good for 2 reasons. Offers insurance if Skinner/Pickard begin to crumble in playoffs, and makes him more tradable in the summer. We know he can be good for stretches.

These playoffs imo determine the summer plans. If Skinner falters you have no choice but to go big goalie hunting for a guy like Saros in the summer which either means you pay to offload Campbell (most likely) or you buy him out. If Skinner plays well then you take advantage of one more year of him at a low cap hit with Pickard or Rodrigue as your back up and try to dump Campbell or buy him out to add to the middle D pairing.

Why waste valuable picks and prospects to dump a bad contract, not to mention, I don't see any deal for Campbell where the Oilers don't have to retain cap.

Use those assets to improve the team or as sweetener to move Kane out to clear capspace for a Connor/Leon reup.

The cap will likely be 12-15M higher than it is right now when McDavid needs to be re-signed. Why would you move out Kane when his contract expires at the same time as McDavid's?

 

[5 Mins 4 Ftg]

Why waste valuable picks and prospects to dump a bad contract, not to mention, I don't see any deal for Campbell where the Oilers don't have to retain cap.

Use those assets to improve the team or as sweetener to move Kane out to clear capspace for a Connor/Leon reup.

Because picks aren't that valuable right now as we are in win now mode and we don't have any valuable prospects whatsoever outside of Broberg and Holloway. Cap space is far far more valuable at this current point than any draft pick or middling prospect we might have. Trade Grier a strong package of picks bolstered by prospects and save the cap space for free agency.

I also doubt we need any draft capital to move Kane out. He does not have negative value.

 

[McDNicks17]

Because picks aren't that valuable right now as we are in win now mode and we don't have any valuable prospects whatsoever outside of Broberg and Holloway. Cap space is far far more valuable at this current point than any draft pick or middling prospect we might have. Trade Grier a strong package of picks bolstered by prospects and save the cap space for free agency.

I also doubt we need any draft capital to move Kane out. He does not have negative value.

UFA is looking rough right now. Like Foegele arguably being a top 10-15 forward available rough.

They might be better off with picks/prospects to make a trade.

 

[guymez]

UFA is looking rough right now. Like Foegele arguably being a top 10-15 forward available rough.

They might be better off with picks/prospects to make a trade.

Desharnais is going to be a problem too. It wouldnt surprise me if his ask was north of $2M.

 

[ManofSteel55]

Desharnais is going to be a problem too. It wouldnt surprise me if his ask was north of $2M.

Worse players have went for more. Desharnais has a lot of what GM's love- size, strength, hard working, fairly responsible defensively. The guy is a prime "bad contract' candidate. I wish him well wherever he signs, and if it isn't with us, I hope its to a cap hit that makes no sense for the team offering it, ha ha.

 

[guymez]

Worse players have went for more. Desharnais has a lot of what GM's love- size, strength, hard working, fairly responsible defensively. The guy is a prime "bad contract' candidate. I wish him well wherever he signs, and if it isn't with us, I hope its to a cap hit that makes no sense for the team offering it, ha ha.

I hear what you're saying here...at least from a player perspective.
From a team perspective though this team is having trouble upgrading the defence with Desharnais on a League minimum contract....nevermind a $2M+ contract.
There is going to have to be some significant player movement after this season ends to open up some cap space.

 

[ManofSteel55]

I hear what you're saying here...at least from a player persepctive.
From a team persepctive though this team is having trouble upgrading the defence with Desharnais on a League minimum contract....nevermind a $2M+ contract.

I don't think he is worth 2M. I'm just saying that with the qualities he does bring, I wouldn't be shocked if some dumb GM offers him $3M. I just want him to sign with us at $1M and live on our bottom pair for the next 2 or 3 years.