Oilers waive Jack Campbell

[guymez]

Well, here it is. In asking around, the Oilers like Campbell better than Kuemper. They feel like Campbell’s a more consistent netminder, his highs in performance are higher and his rebound control is better. Goaltending coach Dustin Schwartz studied hours and hours worth of video and was a key factor in the recommendation of Campbell over Kuemper. The Oilers were also more concerned about injuries with Kuemper than with Campbell.

Oilers mailbag: Missing pieces? Trade strategy? Breakout player?

Plus, the likelihood of the Oilers playing in an outdoor game soon and building out the scouting staff.

theathletic.com

Thanks for posting that,
Maybe his fundamentals did look good on video. Not sure.

Sometimes its hard to gauge a players mental resiliency but its still a massive mistake for everyone involved in that decision.
Mental toughness absolutely should have been discussed...does Campbell have the mental toughness to be a starting goalie?

Obviously the answer is NO.

 

[TheNumber4]

Well, here it is. In asking around, the Oilers like Campbell better than Kuemper. They feel like Campbell’s a more consistent netminder, his highs in performance are higher and his rebound control is better. Goaltending coach Dustin Schwartz studied hours and hours worth of video and was a key factor in the recommendation of Campbell over Kuemper. The Oilers were also more concerned about injuries with Kuemper than with Campbell.

Oilers mailbag: Missing pieces? Trade strategy? Breakout player?

Plus, the likelihood of the Oilers playing in an outdoor game soon and building out the scouting staff.

theathletic.com

This confirms that Schwartz is not only a crappy goalie coach but also a crappy goalie scout.And I'm almost certain Holland is too lazy to use his own eyeballs so he likely went off the recommendation of Schwartz. How is this guy not fired already!?

 

[guymez]

Some interesting tidbits in this article from Gregor 8 months ago, Kevin Woodley makes some very good points.

Jack Campbell Must Play Better

Here is an excerpt....

Jason Gregor: Are you seeing any significant technical issues for him lately?

Kevin Woodley: You know, it’s funny, this is the thing that I talked about even when they signed him when it goes hot and when it goes cold, I don’t find huge gaps, like huge discrepancies when he’s playing well to the eye test. Like yeah, he shrinks a little bit, he tends to retreat a little bit from the top of his crease and start playing three quarter depth, the playing small thing at times behind screens he’ll shrink behind screens rather than get up close to them, try to find his sight line over his shoulder. As much as there were tough deflections the other night (Winnipeg), a lot of deflections he’s guilty on that.
There is always going to be a bit of backwards drift to his game. The line for him, from an eye test and technical, it doesn’t look different. It really seems to be so often about confidence which was kind of a caveat that I threw in when they signed him, and we saw it last year in Toronto during the six-week stretch he was the worst goalie in the NHL. And when I took an extensive deep dive look at the video then, the differences between his early season hot streak and the bad six weeks were just him getting beaten on shots.
And so, positioning, the way that he moved, a lot of those things didn’t change. He’s a guy that relies a lot on how he feels. And feeling good about his game. And that in some ways makes the job even tougher for goalie coach Dustin Schwartz because it’s not like there are glaring technical errors.

So as I pointed out in the previous response to @Spawn the issue for Campbell is all between his ears. It always has been.
There were no technical issues to be concerned about. There was nothing of a technical nature for Schwartz to nail down with video scouting. A reality that many posters wont like but it is what it is.

That makes sense and it also explains why its so damn difficult for Campbell to get back to an NHL quality form. Even as a backup.

 

[Spawn]

Some interesting tidbits in this article from Gregor 8 months ago, Kevin Woodley makes some very good points.

Jack Campbell Must Play Better

Here is an excerpt....



So as I pointed out in the previous response to @Spawn the issue for Campbell is all between his ears. It always has been.
There were no technical issues to be concerned about. There was nothing of a technical nature for Schwartz to nail down with video scouting. A reality that many posters wont like but it is what it is.

That makes sense and it also explains why its so damn difficult for Campbell to get back to an NHL quality form. Even as a backup.

The part you didn't bold highlights plenty of areas that should have been seen with video scouting. He plays small, he doesn't play at the top of his crease. He shrinks behind screens. Even the fact that he's a goalie who is mentally fragile seems to have been apparent to Woodley just from watching footage.

 

[guymez]

Here Kevin Woodley talks about the reality of just how bad the Oilers team defence was and how it effects goaltending. The Oilers earlier this season was the worst team in the NHL for giving up chances off the rush. It mattered a lot and it didnt help Jack Campbell (or Skinner) at all.
This is a large part of the reason why I maintained that unless the Oilers clean up their brutal defensive play it didnt matter who was in net...

The part you didn't bold highlights plenty of areas that should have been seen with video scouting. He plays small, he doesn't play at the top of his crease. He shrinks behind screens. Even the fact that he's a goalie who is mentally fragile seems to have been apparent to Woodley just from watching footage.

He said he plays a little smaller but technically it wasnt that important.

If you read the information I am sending there is little to no difference between Jack Campbell technically when he is playing bad or good.

Did you just ignore that critical piece of information?

 

[Bryanbryoil]

Here Kevin Woodley talks about the reality of just how bad the Oilers team defence was and how it effects goaltending. The Oilers earlier this season was the worst team in the NHL for giving up chances off the rush. It mattered a lot and it didnt help Jack Campbell (or Skinner) at all.
This is a large part of the reason why I maintained that unless the Oilers clean up their brutal defensive play it didnt matter who was in net...




He said he plays a little smaller but technically it wasnt that important.

If you read the information I am sending there is little to no difference between Jack Campbell technically when he is playing bad or good.

Dd you just ignore that critical piece of information?

I agree and was saying this while Campbell was run out of town. That one game where we lost big IMO he stood on his head for a good bit of it (entire 2nd period as well IIRC) but we were trash in front of him. Even Kane said as much when Jack was sent down. The problem is that it seems like there's mostly 3 sides on HF, the Skinner sucks side, the Campbell sucks side and the defense and both goalies suck side. IMO the defense needs to be better but so too should the goalies. Leave Campbell down for a bit longer and then give him a fresh look under Knoblauch.

 

[guymez]

I agree and was saying this while Campbell was run out of town. That one game where we lost big IMO he stood on his head for a good bit of it (entire 2nd period as well IIRC) but we were trash in front of him. Even Kane said as much when Jack was sent down. The problem is that it seems like there's mostly 3 sides on HF, the Skinner sucks side, the Campbell sucks side and the defense and both goalies suck side. IMO the defense needs to be better but so too should the goalies. Leave Campbell down for a bit longer and then give him a fresh look under Knoblauch.

I think you're right that the truth is somewhere closer to the middle,
That said the Oilers couldnt continue to be the worst team in the NHL with chances off the rush.
That just couldnt continue and thankfully the team is cleaning that up.

In one of the audio segments Woodley talks about how goalies need a level of predictability in terms of what the defence does in front of them. Thats especially true for Campbell.
With the Oilers being AHL level quality off the rush (and protecting cross ice passes) for so many games that had to have really hurt both goalies but especially Campbell.
That also explains why the analytics were not accurate in terms of the reasons for so many pucks going in earlier in the season.
The Analytic modeling for HDSC's doesnt care (at least not the publicly available ones) about that reality.

 

[Spawn]

Here Kevin Woodley talks about the reality of just how bad the Oilers team defence was and how it effects goaltending. The Oilers earlier this season was the worst team in the NHL for giving up chances off the rush. It mattered a lot and it didnt help Jack Campbell (or Skinner) at all.
This is a large part of the reason why I maintained that unless the Oilers clean up their brutal defensive play it didnt matter who was in net...




He said he plays a little smaller but technically it wasnt that important.

If you read the information I am sending there is little to no difference between Jack Campbell technically when he is playing bad or good.

Dd you just ignore that critical piece of information?

A goalie being fragile mentally is just as important as a goalie being poor technically. Kevin Woodley seemed able to pick up on that. Schwartz apparently didn't.

And the numbers just don't back up what you or Woodley are saying. Every site I've looked at has the Oilers at average at worst.

 

[guymez]

A goalie being fragile mentally is just as important as a goalie being poor technically. Kevin Woodley seemed able to pick up on that. Schwartz apparently didn't.

And the numbers just don't back up what you or Woodley are saying. Every site I've looked at has the Oilers as average to above average in chances against. Whether that is off the rush or overall.

View attachment 774371

You do understand why...right?
Its Woodleys job.
He works for a private analytics firm.

The really important numbers arent available publicly.
They are available for a price.

Now did Holland use those data? Likely not. he is the one running this decision. Not Schwartz.
That should be questioned.

Thats a large part of why I have been questioning some of the public analytics in terms of the Oilers goaltending this season. That data didnt tell an accurate enough story.

Now...I dont know how much more detailed the private data is and I am not sure how or if t would have reflected anything on Campbells mental challenges.
That IMO has to be doe in person. Was it done.
Deost sound like it. That once again is on Holland.

 

[TheNumber4]

Here Kevin Woodley talks about the reality of just how bad the Oilers team defence was and how it effects goaltending. The Oilers earlier this season was the worst team in the NHL for giving up chances off the rush. It mattered a lot and it didnt help Jack Campbell (or Skinner) at all.
This is a large part of the reason why I maintained that unless the Oilers clean up their brutal defensive play it didnt matter who was in net...




He said he plays a little smaller but technically it wasnt that important.

If you read the information I am sending there is little to no difference between Jack Campbell technically when he is playing bad or good.

Did you just ignore that critical piece of information?

I mean it makes sense if Campbell is good technically, the guy has been training to be and seen as a top
Goalie or top goalie prospect for most of his life. I don’t think there’s much you can teach this guy and if sure goalie experts see that technical base he’s worked his life towards mastering. And while it does make sense that his technical abilities are there, and that this could all be mental. But couldn’t it be that when he has his mental lapses his technical game falls apart too? I mean Woodley says it was the same whether he’s good or bad.. but he just doesn’t stop pucks when he’s bad. That could be because he’s not executing on his technical stuff like not staying above the crease to look large.

It’s probably both is what I’m saying. Lack of mental ability which leads to a degradation in his technical game. I mean he’s been so bad too, if his technical game was perfect but he was fragile mentally this whole time we probably don’t see these bad of numbers.

 

[Spawn]

You do understand why...right?
Its Woodleys job.
He works for a private analytics firm.

The really important numbers arent available publicly.
They are available for a price.

Now did Holland use those data? Likely not.

Thats a large part of why I have been questioning some of the public analytics in terms of the Oilers goaltending this season. That data didnt tell an accurate enough story.

These numbers all come from the same place. They're just interpreted differently. You're free to say that "private firms" have the real numbers, but we've seen enough examples over the years of teams hiring hockey bloggers for their analytic teams to suggest that might not actually be true.

But whatever, with you unable to provide any actual concrete stats to back up what Woodley says I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

 

[guymez]

I mean it makes sense if Campbell is good technically, the guy has been training to be and seen as a top
Goalie or top goalie prospect for most of his life. I don’t think there’s much you can teach this guy and if sure goalie experts see that technical base he’s worked his life towards mastering. And while it does make sense that his technical abilities are there, and that this could all be mental. But couldn’t it be that when he has his mental lapses his technical game falls apart too? I mean Woodley says it was the same whether he’s good or bad.. but he just doesn’t stop pucks when he’s bad. That could be because he’s not executing on his technical stuff like not staying above the crease to look large.

It’s probably both is what I’m saying. Lack of mental ability which leads to a degradation in his technical game. I mean he’s been so bad too, if his technical game was perfect but he was fragile mentally this whole time we probably don’t see these bad of numbers.

I trust Woodleys opinion on this stuff and he seems to think that Campbell isnt that different techically when he is off.

So that could mean that Campbell has tracking issues when he gets mentally distracted. Maybe it means that Campbell relies too much on reading the play instead of tracking the puck so he tends to guesss more when he is off.

This gets pretty technical and its above my pay grade.

 

[guymez]

These numbers all come from the same place. They're just interpreted differently. You're free to say that "private firms" have the real numbers, but we've seen enough examples over the years of teams hiring hockey bloggers for their analytic teams to suggest that might not actually be true.

But whatever, with you unable to provide any actual concrete stats to back up what Woodley says I guess we'll just have to agree to disagree.

This just isnt true. You can disagree all you want but the facts are the facts.

See if you can get the intensive data from Clear Sight Analytics. Good luck.

 

[Davo Ikinzom]

What a weird hill to die on.

 

[guymez]

What a weird hill to die on.

What hill are you referring to?

 

[TheNumber4]

I trust Woodleys opinion on this stuff and he seems to think that Campbell isnt that different techically when he is off.

So that could mean that Campbell has tracking issues when he gets mentally distracted. Maybe it means that Campbell relies too much on reading the play instead of tracking the puck so he tends to guesss more when he is off.

This gets pretty technical and its above my pay grade.

I’ve heard woodley talk. A bit abrasive and confrontational at least to Stauffer but sounds like he knew what he was talking about. Knowing what he knows about Campbell, Did he ever make a final recommendation on whether Oilers should sign him or not?

 

[guymez]

I’ve heard woodley talk. A bit abrasive and confrontational at least to Stauffer but sounds like he knew what he was talking about. Knowing what he knows about Campbell, Did he ever make a final recommendation on whether Oilers should sign him or not?

I have never actually heard him on Stauffers show...just Gregors.

If he is a little abrasive to Stauffer then I might listen.

IIRC he was mostly concerned about the amount and the term. A lot of posters on here had the same concerns. Myself included. If the Oilers had paid Jack to be a tandem goalie at best then that proabaly would have looked much different. I dont remember hearing that he was on any other teams radar as a starter.
Not sure about that though.

Its a bad contract but we all know that by now.

 

[Bryanbryoil]

The hockey world knew about Campbell beating himself up since he was in hockey's biggest market. The guy never blamed his teammates and placed unfair blame onto himself no matter what. IMO this was common knowledge. It is unfortunate and hopefully something that he can get under control especially if his issues don't appear to be technical in nature.

 

[TheNumber4]

I have never actually heard him on Stauffers show...just Gregors.

If he is a little abrasive to Stauffer then I might listen.

IIRC he was mostly concerned about the amount and the term. A lot of posters on here had the same concerns. Myself included. If the Oilers had paid Jack to be a tandem goalie at best then that proabaly would have looked much different. I dont remember hearing that he was on any other teams radar as a starter.
Not sure about that though.

Its a bad contract but we all know that by now.

Lol on that episode with Stauffer it sounded like he had a chip on his shoulder and wanted to prove he knew more about goalies than the Oilers did. He could be right. I think he made that one appearance and was never asked to come back.

I had huge concerns over his rumoured cost which started at 6M (leaked by Toronto media) then changed to 5M somehow after. I thought they sensed the Oilers wouldn’t do it so they changed the rumors, but that’s tin foil hat stuff. In any case yeh he was huge risk imo, but unlike Woodley i was not impressed at all watching video of Campbells work. I’m no goalie expert though and I’ll fully admit that.

Sometimes I do wonder if these experts can get a little lost in the weeds though. I mean we see a lot of scouting fails by supposed processionals all the time. They may get stuck in a bit of analysis paralysis where they over focus on stuff they really know about like is his glove positioned right or is he correctly positioned to challenge this or that shot, and it may make them miss some obvious things. Like sure his glove is positioned right but why does he keep whiffing pucks on his glove side. Or sure he has good lateral movement but why does he belly flop and looked confused with no idea of where that puck is after making that good lateral movement. So they check off all these individual technical aspects and give their final opinion after piecing together all of these parts but they might miss a bigger picture.

 

[fuswald]

You do understand why...right?
Its Woodleys job.
He works for a private analytics firm.

The really important numbers arent available publicly.
They are available for a price.

Now did Holland use those data? Likely not. he is the one running this decision. Not Schwartz.
That should be questioned.

Thats a large part of why I have been questioning some of the public analytics in terms of the Oilers goaltending this season. That data didnt tell an accurate enough story.

Now...I dont know how much more detailed the private data is and I am not sure how or if t would have reflected anything on Campbells mental challenges.
That IMO has to be doe in person. Was it done.
Deost sound like it. That once again is on Holland.

Bunch of assumptions to the fire Holland narrative.

 

[joestevens29]

I think you're right that the truth is somewhere closer to the middle,
That said the Oilers couldnt continue to be the worst team in the NHL with chances off the rush.
That just couldnt continue and thankfully the team is cleaning that up.

In one of the audio segments Woodley talks about how goalies need a level of predictability in terms of what the defence does in front of them. Thats especially true for Campbell.
With the Oilers being AHL level quality off the rush (and protecting cross ice passes) for so many games that had to have really hurt both goalies but especially Campbell.
That also explains why the analytics were not accurate in terms of the reasons for so many pucks going in earlier in the season.
The Analytic modeling for HDSC's doesnt care (at least not the publicly available ones) about that reality.

While I don't disagree the same applies to the players with their goalies. Some of these baby shit soft goals that goes in plays a lot of mind games with them as well.

 

[joestevens29]

I’ve heard woodley talk. A bit abrasive and confrontational at least to Stauffer but sounds like he knew what he was talking about. Knowing what he knows about Campbell, Did he ever make a final recommendation on whether Oilers should sign him or not?

I do know he said Buffalo shouldn't go after Hellebuyck. The level of detail he went into why tells me he probably knew whether or not Campbell can be a good fit here. Or at the very least how the Oilers would have to play for him to be successful

The guy doesn't just scout a goalie and make a decision off of that. He literally went into saying the way Buffalo plays that Hellebuyck wouldn't be as good as he was in WPG. Think it was something about how Buffalo allows a lot of cross ice plays and Hellebuyck's numbers aren't great when he has to move side to side.

This is the level of analysis this club needs. Not just in goaltending, but players too. Sure you can scout a player and say he is good at this or that, but if he doesn't fit into your roster or systems properly then what good is he?

Edit: As for being abrasive with Stauffer. Shocking, Stauffer gets that way with anyone that tries to explain what's wrong with the Oilers or points out a negative. With Gregor, Gregor simply asks him a question and lets Woodley go into the detail without being interrupted or challenged.

 

[guymez]

Lol on that episode with Stauffer it sounded like he had a chip on his shoulder and wanted to prove he knew more about goalies than the Oilers did. He could be right. I think he made that one appearance and was never asked to come back.

I had huge concerns over his rumoured cost which started at 6M (leaked by Toronto media) then changed to 5M somehow after. I thought they sensed the Oilers wouldn’t do it so they changed the rumors, but that’s tin foil hat stuff. In any case yeh he was huge risk imo, but unlike Woodley i was not impressed at all watching video of Campbells work. I’m no goalie expert though and I’ll fully admit that.

Sometimes I do wonder if these experts can get a little lost in the weeds though. I mean we see a lot of scouting fails by supposed processionals all the time. They may get stuck in a bit of analysis paralysis where they over focus on stuff they really know about like is his glove positioned right or is he correctly positioned to challenge this or that shot, and it may make them miss some obvious things. Like sure his glove is positioned right but why does he keep whiffing pucks on his glove side. Or sure he has good lateral movement but why does he belly flop and looked confused with no idea of where that puck is after making that good lateral movement. So they check off all these individual technical aspects and give their final opinion after piecing together all of these parts but they might miss a bigger picture.

Fair post.
I honestly couldn't understand why Holland just didnt give Markstrom an extra couple of hundred thousand. The team would have a quality starter and we wouldnt have to deal with the Campbell saga.

 

[guymez]

Bunch of assumptions to the fire Holland narrative.

So Holland wasnt ultimately responsible? Thats your position?

 

[joestevens29]

Fair post.
I honestly couldn't understand why Holland just didnt give Markstrom an extra couple of hundred thousand. The team would have a quality starter and we wouldnt have to deal with the Campbell saga.

In all fariness Markstrom hasn't been all that good in Calgary. That and I thought he was just using us as leverage anyway.

I thought he was tight with Lindholm or Backlund or something.