Oilers now 13-12-1: THE THREAD THAT'S FUN FOR EVERYONE

[Divine]

I'm not making points predictions. It's a fool's game for HF.

As McDavid goes, so go the Oilers. And Ekholm is their most important defensemen. Every team does have to deal with injuries. In the Oilers case, they did deal with these injuries. That is not to say that they won't suffer more, but a reasonable analysis will accept that they did already happen, and that they would have an impact on the team's performance. And that impact is greater than the return from a Broberg trade.

You counted one of those future possibilities as "bet nullifying" while the other was not, so you're telling on yourself here.

Obviously you don't believe what you're saying when you refuse to even make a prediction.

We're in agreement I guess. Your takes are basically that they are better than their record but you won't say how much better. If it's 1 point better than their record, I agree. I'm willing to give them 5-10 points MORE than their pace suggests just by standard fluctuations and the new coach bump.

Lastly, injuries can still happen - lots of teams are going through it. I don't know how you're supposed to make predictions based on predicting future injuries.

We know the Oilers are going to 'go for it' barring an epic collapse, and it's very likely they'll trade their 1st round pick for an improved roster as they also did it last season and are eating a 3M overage penalty to go for it this year.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

Obviously you don't believe what you're saying when you refuse to even make a prediction.

We're in agreement I guess. Since your takes are they are better than their record but with no margin. If it's 1 point better than they're record, I agree. I'm willing to give them 5-10 points MORE than their pace suggests just by standard fluctuations.

Lastly, injuries can still happen - lots of teams are going through it. I don't know how you're supposed to make predictions based on injuries.

You: "Obviously you don't believe what you're saying when you refuse to even make a prediction."

You: "I don't know how you're supposed to make predictions based on injuries."

You're contradicting yourself in the same post. You're not a serious person.

 

[Divine]

You: "Obviously you don't believe what you're saying when you refuse to even make a prediction."

You: "I don't know how you're supposed to make predictions based on injuries."

You're contradicting yourself in the same post. You're not a serious person.

You're saying I should be factoring in injuries in my predictions - that's not possible.

Make a prediction barring any catastrophic injuries. I'll wait.

If your entire take is the Oilers are better but I can't say how much because I'm scared of being wrong on the internet then there's nothing to discuss.

 

[WestCoast CyberG]

You seem to not understand how games played matter.

Considering the oilers had a 6 day break during the win streak.

It’s a little disingenuous to not include games played in your argument unless you have a narrative

I already said he had a narrative and he vehemently denied it. This is the most unbiased impartial Canuck fan in the world.

What’s with all the narrative crap? LMAO….it’s just a hockey board and I am way too high so just settle down. There are 116 points available for the Oilers and they have to play 600 hockey just to make 93 points (23 current plus 70 points playing .600) which is the projected cut line to make the playoffs.

I just showed you that winning 6 games in a row may not be enough since other teams will gain at the same time. Yes, I get the games in hand and all that but that is not part of what I am trying to illustrate.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

What’s with all the narrative crap? LMAO….it’s just a hockey board and I am way too high so just settle down. There are 116 points available for the Oilers and they have to play 600 hockey just to make 93 points (23 current plus 70 points playing .600) which is the projected cut line to make the playoffs.

I just showed you that winning 6 games in a row may not be enough since other teams will gain at the same time. Yes, I get the games in hand and all that but that is not part of what I am trying to illustrate.

"What's with all the narrative crap?"

Narrative: a way of presenting or understanding a situation or series of events that reflects and promotes a particular point of view or set of values.

"I get the games in hand and all that but that is not part of what I am trying to illustrate."

 

[Coffey]

What’s with all the narrative crap? LMAO….it’s just a hockey board and I am way too high so just settle down. There are 116 points available for the Oilers and they have to play 600 hockey just to make 93 points (23 current plus 70 points playing .600) which is the projected cut line to make the playoffs.

I just showed you that winning 6 games in a row may not be enough since other teams will gain at the same time. Yes, I get the games in hand and all that but that is not part of what I am trying to illustrate.

We already told you the Oilers finished last year at 0.665. So going 0.600 shouldn’t be an issue unless you think the team drastically changed so much from last year. And last year they had only 3 more points than they do now at this point of the season.

Just admit you love the doomsaying.

 

[Davo Ikinzom]

3500 posts, tracking the Oilers W/L record and a thread title that read "Looks more like bust than cup" after a 6 game win streak.

Actually living rent free in other fan bases heads.

 

[ijuka]

Easy, you just have to watch him. Advanced stats can be very subjective

Eye test objective, advanced stats subjective?

Yeah, that sounds about ri— wait, what?

 

[Jumptheshark]

3500 posts, tracking the Oilers W/L record and a thread title that read "Looks more like bust than cup" after a 6 game win streak.

Actually living rent free in other fan bases heads.

A loss tonight will cause the OP TI change it back

 

[SK13]

We're in agreement I guess. Your takes are basically that they are better than their record but you won't say how much better. If it's 1 point better than their record, I agree. I'm willing to give them 5-10 points MORE than their pace suggests just by standard fluctuations and the new coach bump

That's benevolent of you, Leafs fan.

I'm sure that your take on the roster is fair and balanced, educated and knowledgeable. I would hate to think that, in spite of years of evidence that the largely-unchanged Oilers are a 100+ point playoff team, you're basing your opinion on things that are real and not on disdain for the team and fanbase and myopic hope that those 15 October and November games were the REAL Oilers.

I'll take your prediction bet by the way. 100 points.

Lastly, injuries can still happen - lots of teams are going through it. I don't know how you're supposed to make predictions based on predicting future injuries.

We know the Oilers are going to 'go for it' barring an epic collapse, and it's very likely they'll trade their 1st round pick for an improved roster as they also did it last season and are eating a 3M overage penalty to go for it this year.

I don't really feel the need to excuse the opening with injuries. Ekholm and McDavid injuries did not help, but the Oilers during their toilet-bowl run were among the league's best in shots for, shots against, scoring chances for, scoring chances against, high danger chances for & against, possession time and just about any metric except for unsustainably low save percenages & shooting percentages.

A dog with access to NHL.com could see this turnaround as inevitable, unless that dog were from a rival fanbase and didn't want it to be true.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

What's Edmontons record now with Knoblock behind the bench?

 

[SK13]

What's Edmontons record now with Knoblock behind the bench?

8-3.

 

[Dempsey]

Canucks lost 7 straight to start the season 2 years ago, it what in gods green earth are you talking about?

What I mean is, the Oilers can win today and be down to only 3 points back of both wildcard spots with games in hand still, so they're clearly on their way to overcoming their horrible start. I thought you meant that another horrible stretch can sink their season and I pointed out how that applies to any team in the wildcard chase.

If you meant that the Canucks lost 7 straight two years ago and it sunk their season and that's an indication that the Oilers could be sunk too, I'd say that's fair. The Oilers could still fail to overcome their start, it's possible. Still a long road ahead full of ups and downs.

 

[Artorius Horus T]

141 pages holy hannah!
is this a record thread?

 

[North Cole]

You gained because ANA and SEA lost games at the same pace as the Oilers won games.

Rattle off 12 points in 6 games and you look back and MINN are still only 1 point back.

Meanwhile….NASH and ARI continued to add points so you gained little to no ground.

Imagine if Edmonton losses a few games?

Why should we imagine if Edmonton loses a few games? People are asking you constantly about games in hand and you shut that idea down because its make believe points until you win them. Now your rebuttal is "what if EDM goes on a loss streak?"

That seems hypocritical.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

Why should we imagine if Edmonton loses a few games? People are asking you constantly about games in hand and you shut that idea down because its make believe points until you win them. Now your rebuttal is "what if EDM goes on a loss streak?"

That seems hypocritical.

Because games in hand only count when they add to his argument.

Since the Oilers started the win streak, they've gained 5 points on the wild card teams.

Nashville has also played 9 games to the Oilers 6 in that time.

 

[WestCoast CyberG]

Because games in hand only count when they add to his argument.

Since the Oilers started the win streak, they've gained 5 points on the wild card teams.

Nashville has also played 9 games to the Oilers 6 in that time.

Games at hand only count when you win them.

On Nov.23 Nash had 16 points and Edmonton had 11 points - a 5 point gap.
As of today Nashville has 28 points and Edmonton has 23 - same 5 point gap.

Edmonton gained 3 games which they still need to win but didn’t gain ground points wise.

 

[WestCoast CyberG]

Why should we imagine if Edmonton loses a few games? People are asking you constantly about games in hand and you shut that idea down because its make believe points until you win them. Now your rebuttal is "what if EDM goes on a loss streak?"

That seems hypocritical.

One could just as easily count games at hand as losses to bolster a narrative.

 

[Tobias Kahun]

One could just as easily count games at hand as losses to bolster a narrative.

Which is what you're doing.

Thanks for proving everyone elses point.

 

[ujju2]

I think the current team will maintain around the current pace if they don't make any trades.

I expect their GM to trade away their future to improve the current team as there's already reports that he's trying to do just that.

I don't get what part of that is confusing.

In that case, I’ll happily make you a bet. My contention is that the Oilers will be in a playoff spot (wildcard or otherwise) by the trade deadline. It’s hard to account for trades before then, so if you want, we can call off the bet if they make a significant trade well before the deadline (that’s your call).

 

[Czechboy]

I have a bias for my Czech goalies so really hoping we play Schmidd this afternoon and light him up! A nice 5 or 6 goals. If it's Vanecek than a 1-0 win please, his stats need desperate help.haha

 

[Czechboy]

Campbell at .833 last night.lol

5 awful games and 3 good ones in AHL...

Can't play Stu every single game.

 

[WestCoast CyberG]

Which is what you're doing.

Thanks for proving everyone elses point.

I was showing how difficult points are to gain on teams ahead….you are arguing over 2 sides of the same coin.

 

[North Cole]

One could just as easily count games at hand as losses to bolster a narrative.

Yes they could. So I don't know why you want to tell 10 posters that games in hand don't matter, while also telling me to imagine EDM going on a losing streak. Why don't we imagine Vancouver having EDM's early season PDO and losing 9 games in a row while we're at it? Or NSH going on a 3 game losing streak? Or Hill getting injured and Vegas starting to tank?

The only evidence we have is that the team was not playing well, had key injuries, and goalies couldn't make a save. They then fired the coach, the team is playing better, people are less injured, goalies are making saves.

Is Skinner a 0.943 goalie? Of course not. Is Skinner a 0.860 goalie? Of course not. The team has shown last year, with a largely unchanged roster, that they can play 0.600+ hockey with any goaltending above 0.900. There's still more than 50 games remaining and a trade deadline where some teams in the race will improve and some will sell off.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

It's hard to gain points on other teams when they play more games than you.

This is the type of insight that I come here for.