Oilers now 13-12-1: THE THREAD THAT'S FUN FOR EVERYONE

[Nostradumbass]

I never said the team wasn't. Their current pace is better than their first 12 games - isn't it?

I don't know why people feel the need to form all these strawmen to argue with.

You have consistently discussed the Oilers' pace and the importance of the first 12 games.

 

[Divine]

You have consistently discussed the Oilers' pace and the importance of the first 12 games.

I have discussed the Oilers pace over 24 games specifically to include their hot streak. I don't know where I talked about their first 12 games pace - sounds like a strawman to me.

 

[GOilers88]

You just think they're going to lose 41 games because the pace says so?

You do you, lol.

Yes, I do.

The same players that lost the first 12 games are still on the roster.

I think at best they're a wildcard team. What's your prediction for the season? Willing to make an avatar bet on it?

That makes no sense.

So what's your prediction actually - that they finish 42-39-1? I can agree with that - it's a similar pace.

You're arguing they're a much better team than their pace suggests - but want to make a bet that they have normal deviations in their current pace? I think we're on the same page if we're both arguing that their current pace is what they are.

How about 99.5 points - over/under?

That's exactly what I said, maybe you misunderstood it.

You can't expect me to say the Oilers will finish with their current pace even if they trade futures for Makar, MacKinnon & Sorokin retained.

Their GM is already trying to improve the current team.

They lost 12 games in regulation, 13 total in 24 games.

They're not on pace to lose 20 games. For the record they're on pace to lose 41 games in regulation not 20... but don't let your cool story get in the way of the facts.

So basically what you've said to me is that their pace after 24 games is a good indicator of where they'll finish the year, that they're going to lose 41 regulation games which means at best they can get 82 points, making the playoffs a complete impossibility, while at the same time saying you think they could also be a wildcard team, which contradicts everything.

Then it morphed into, "oh well obviously they could make trades to change the roster and do better".

Either way it's all a load of crap.

 

[Divine]

So basically what you've said to me is that their pace after 24 games is a good indicator of where they'll finish the year, that they're going to lose 41 regulation games which means at best they can get 82 points, making the playoffs a complete impossibility, while at the same time saying you think they could also be a wildcard team, which contradicts everything.

Then it morphed into, "oh well obviously they could make trades to change the roster and do better".

Either way it's all a load of crap.

Yes, and I stand by my statements. I don't understand why it's so confusing to you.

If the Oilers don't make any trade - they're basically around a 80-90 point team accounting for fluctuations. Is that clear enough to you?

 

[Nostradumbass]

I have discussed the Oilers pace over 24 games specifically to include their hot streak. I don't know where I talked about their first 12 games pace - sounds like a strawman to me.

You appear to be backtracking and using a word you don't seem to understand.

 

[Divine]

You appear to be backtracking and using a word you don't seem to understand.

No backtracking here. I never talked about their 12 game pace. Someone decided to create a strawman to argue against for some reason.

 

[GOilers88]

Yes, and I stand by my statements. I don't understand why it's so confusing to you.

If the Oilers don't make any trade - they're basically around a 80-90 point team accounting for fluctuations. Is that clear enough to you?

You keep moving goalposts around to get away from the fact that you said something really stupid initially, and don't actually believe it.

 

[Divine]

You keep moving goalposts around to get away from the fact that you said something really stupid initially, and don't actually believe it.

What did I say that I am backtracking from?

I said the current Oilers will maintain their current pace? Yes, and I'm still saying that. Where's the backtracking?

 

[Nostradumbass]

What did I say that I am backtracking from?

I said the current Oilers will maintain their current pace? Yes, and I'm still saying that. Where's the backtracking?

That is 78.5 points for the over/under. Put your money where your mouth is.

 

[Divine]

That is 78.5 points for the over/under. Put your money where your mouth is.

Like I said - gladly. However, any trades will nullify that bet.

Let me ask you this - what's YOUR prediction for the point total at the end of the season?

You seem to think they are so much better than their pace but are scared to throw some numbers out. I'm the only one who has so far. All I hear is they're better than their pace but no one says how much better - 1 point better? That's just normal fluctuation.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Like I said - gladly. However, any trades will nullify that bet.

Let me ask you this - what's YOUR prediction for the point total at the end of the season?

You seem to think they are so much better than their pace but are scared to throw some numbers out. I'm the only one who has so far. All I hear is they're better than their pace but no one says how much better - 1 point better? That's just normal fluctuation.

I'm not the one that has made any bold proclamations, I'm just asking you to back up your statements. I'm glad we've settled on 78.5 points. What level of trade would nullify the bet? 1st line forward? Top pair D? #7 defenceman?

 

[Divine]

I'm not the one that has made any bold proclamations, I'm just asking you to back up your statements. I'm glad we've settled on 78.5 points. What level of trade would nullify the bet? 1st line forward? Top pair D? #7 defenceman?

Any trade that improves the team will nullify the bet.

If Broberg is traded for a roster player - the team is better.
If your 1st round pick is traded for a roster player - the team is better.
If you somehow improve your goaltending via trade - the team is better.

I think the current team is around a .500 team. They will have hot streaks (like now) and cold streaks (like prior).

If I need to bet for the end of the season knowing Ken Holland is trying to make trades - I'll set the total at 99.5 points. That seems fair, Seattle finished with 100 points last season as a wild card team. Are the Cup or Bust Oilers as good as last years Pacific Expansion team?

 

[WestCoast CyberG]

Let's recap what your actual takeaway was:
Oilers just won 6 straight and all they have to show is passing SEA (who are tanking) and ANA (who lost 6). No ground on Nash, 2 points on Ari and Minn kept pace.

When you are playing from behind like the Oilers all the other teams you are chasing also play each other and gain points which automatically increases the gap.

You went out of your way to make it sound like the winning streak was all but useless because the team's relative position against other teams did not change significantly. Games played in that timespan is an important bit of context, and your stated conclusion is highly misleading without that context.

It is bad reasoning, and I think you probably know that.

It was to illustrate how difficult points are when playing catch up. It showed a team behind winning 6 straight (which is amazing obviously) and only catching 3 teams, 2 of which lost 6.

No it isn’t. My opinion on the team is based on watching the team. And yours is based off fantasizing about a made up scenario you cooked up in your head while staring at the standings. Not all opinions are equal, some are informed, some are not.

Lol 7 or 2 years. Doesn’t matter how the Crappy Nucks from whatever year missed the playoffs. These are entirely different teams. It has near zero relevance. Sorry your Canucks didn’t make it that year, but that’s cause they were a shitty team. The Oilers are not a shitty team. And if you watched the team you might realize this.

You are making assumptions based on an opinion. My team did the same thing 2 years ago and you seem to brush that aside thinking it is some “my team finished vs your team” argument. Nope.

Zero attempt to start any conversation you jumped on taking shots and under-cutting my opinion instead of attacking with actual information.

All of the teams battling for a wildcard spot will have their season ruined if they lose 7 in a row during the remainder of the season, that is not somehow unique to the Oilers.

Canucks lost 7 straight to start the season 2 years ago, it what in gods green earth are you talking about?

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

Any trade that improves the team will nullify the bet.

If Broberg is traded for a roster player - the team is better.
If your 1st round pick is traded for a roster player - the team is better.
If you somehow improve your goaltending - the team is better.

I think the current team is around a .500 team. They will have hot streaks (like now) and cold streaks (like prior).

If I need to bet for the end of the season knowing Ken Holland is trying to make trades - I'll set the total at 99.5 points. That seems fair, Seattle finished with 100 points last season as a wild card team. Are the Cup or Bust Oilers as good as last years Pacific Expansion team?

The player that we might acquire in a Broberg trade will result in a greater improvement than McDavid and Ekholm getting back to full health?

You'll say "Where did I say that?!" with great indignation. But the sum of your statements on pace and nullifying trades are saying precisely that.

 

[Divine]

The player that we might acquire in a Broberg trade will result in a greater improvement than McDavid and Ekholm getting back to full health?

You'll say "Where did I say that?!" with great indignation. But the sum of your statements on pace and nullifying trades are saying precisely that.

I have no idea what you're talking about.

Of course trading a player who is not good enough for your roster for a player who is good enough for your roster *should* improve your team.

I don't think McDavid or Ekholm are the weak points of the Oilers roster. The weak points are their goaltending, defence, and depth scoring.

 

[Nostradumbass]

Any trade that improves the team will nullify the bet.

If Broberg is traded for a roster player - the team is better.
If your 1st round pick is traded for a roster player - the team is better.
If you somehow improve your goaltending - the team is better.

I think the current team is around a .500 team. They will have hot streaks (like now) and cold streaks (like prior).

You're backtracking, good luck with that.

 

[Divine]

You're backtracking, good luck with that.

I don't think you know what that word means. I stand by my statement.

If the roster changes, so does the bet. However, we can factor in the changes in advance at 100 points - that's what the wild card Seattle Kraken finished with last year. Are the Oilers after all their moves as good as last years Pacific Wild Card team?

 

[Jetcetera]

Bubble team

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

I have no idea what you're talking about.

Of course trading a player who is not good enough for your roster for a player who is good enough for your roster *should* improve your team.

I don't think McDavid or Ekholm are the weak points of the Oilers roster. The weak points are their goaltending, defence, and depth scoring.

To the bolded: I'm not surprised.

You are saying that a minor tweak, such as a Broberg trade will nullify pace, but you've ignored that the Oilers team today is vastly different from the one that had a horrid start largely by virtue of McDavid and Ekholm being at 100%.

 

[Divine]

To the bolded: I'm not surprised.

You are saying that a minor tweak, such as a Broberg trade will nullify pace, but you've ignored that the Oilers team today is vastly different from the one that had a horrid start largely by virtue of McDavid and Ekholm being at 100%.

McDavid started the season at 100% and the team still struggled. The McDavid 'injury' that resulted in the player missing 2 games seems like a scapegoat.

 

[Coffey]

The weak points are their depth scoring.

But they have the most 20+ point players in the league. Or did you mean weak bottom 6?

 

[Divine]

But they have the most 20+ point players in the league. Or did you mean weak bottom 6?

Bottom 6 - I don't consider top 6 players depth players.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

McDavid started the season at 100% and the team still struggled. The McDavid 'injury' that resulted in the player missing 2 games seems like a scapegoat.

You've now shown with startling clarity that your ability to parse information and assess gameplay is lacking. Or you're just a dishonest person.

McDavid played fewer than 5 games before getting injured. He was visibly struggling for at least as many games after his return to the lineup. Everyone who pays attention understood that he was likely rushed back from that injury to play in the Heritage Classic, and his play bore that out. And Ekholm finally appeared to round into form around the time of the winning streak after recovering from an injury.

 

[Divine]

You've now shown with startling clarity that your ability to parse information and assess gameplay is lacking. Or you're just a dishonest person.

McDavid played fewer than 5 games before getting injured. He was visibly struggling for at least as many games after his return to the lineup. Everyone who pays attention understood that he was likely rushed back from that injury to play in the Heritage Classic, and his play bore that out. And Ekholm finally appeared to round into form around the time of the winning streak after recovering from an injury.

Okay - so how many points do you think the Oilers finish with this season? As they're a much better team than their pace suggests according to you.

Injuries are a part of the game. Every team deals with them. Ideally every player would be playing 100% in every game, that is not the case. Good teams are able to play through injuries - bad teams are not.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

Okay - so how many points do you think the Oilers finish with this season? As they're a much better team than their pace suggests according to you.

Injuries are a part of the game. Every team deals with them. Ideally every player would be playing 100% in every game, that is not the case. Good teams are able to play through injuries - bad teams are not.

I'm not making points predictions. It's a fool's game for HF.

As McDavid goes, so go the Oilers. And Ekholm is their most important defensemen. Every team does have to deal with injuries. In the Oilers case, they did deal with these injuries. That is not to say that they won't suffer more, but a reasonable analysis will accept that they did already happen, and that they would have an impact on the team's performance. And that impact is greater than the return from a Broberg trade.

You counted one of those future possibilities as "bet nullifying" while the other was not, so you're telling on yourself here.