Oilers now 13-12-1: THE THREAD THAT'S FUN FOR EVERYONE

[WestCoast CyberG]

I don't think you understand my argument.

I'm arguing they might not make the playoffs. The posters here seem to argue that the playoffs are a certainty - they are not. If they make the playoffs, I am predicting they do so as a wildcard team and I don't think they win the first round against a division winner.

Could they win the Cup? Sure. Am I going to bet money on it? No... but you can!

Exactly - instead of starting against MIN/STL/NSH/CGY at home they will be on the road in Vegas or LA. At least they can stay for the after-party once eliminated.

 

[Soundwave]

Did you read the title?

Starting to look more Bust than Cup - is that inaccurate if it's this or that? I don't think it's unreasonable to say a team under .500 is looking more likely to not win the Cup than win it. He didn't label them a bust - simply said it's looking like it, which it is.

"Cup or bust" is one of those sports expressions that honestly become a bit overblown.

Any team that is a contender or sees themselves as such should be saying "Cup or bust", it doesn't literally mean the world is going to explode or even the team won't be back again the following year. McDavid is 26, not 40.

Of course you want to win but there's no scenario in which you can realistically guarantee a Cup and certainly the Oilers front office has considerable work to do yet in net specifically.

Frankly too I like to have some adversity in the regular season, how many times have we seen teams demolish the regular season and then get themselves into big trouble as soon as round 1 and they aren't able to overcome it because they've dealt with no adversity all year long (hello Boston last year, Tampa a few years ago vs. Columbus, etc.).

This board totally wrote off Florida last year and they made it to the Cup Finals. Wasn't the whole talk here that the Tkachuk trade was one where "both teams lost the trade" (lol) and Florida was going to have to undergo a 2-3 year retool type of thing? How'd that turn out?

If people want to write the Oilers off and say "hey you're just a wild card team" ... I think that's actually not a bad thing. Then the pressure is shifted over to the other team in round 1 ... hey we're just a wild card squad, you guys are supposed to win.

 

[Czechboy]

I don't think you understand my argument.

I'm arguing they might not make the playoffs. The posters here seem to argue that the playoffs are a certainty - they are not. If they make the playoffs, I am predicting they do so as a wildcard team and I don't think they win the first round against a division winner.

Could they win the Cup? Sure. Am I going to bet money on it? No... but you can!

It's funny because I'm an Oiler fan and your posts should piss me off. However you seem to be using logic and reason. I tend to agree with most your posts to be honest.

 

[North Cole]

Did you read the title?

Starting to look more Bust than Cup - is that inaccurate if it's this or that?

Yes, which again - is one sentence with zero substantive facts being presented. How does that amount to an argument?

Please explain what being 2-9 (or thereabouts), at the time of the thread being made, indicates something was more bust than cup? There must be some ancillary reason that it was more bust than cup, other than a snapshot of a record 15% of the way into the season. Especially given the cup is not awarded to the best regular season team.

1. I didn’t make an argument. Do I have to?
2. You don’t seem to understand that the current thread title is NOT the thread title I created. My original thread title asked a question. The title has been changed by mods like 5 times since I created it.

1 - The poster I am responding to claims you did, if you agree with me that you did not, you should let them know.
2 - I was told by Divine to reference the current thread OP and title, which is what I've done. If you want the OP to stand for longer, don't create a sandcastle that the Mods can easily wash away. This is why the OP exists as a separate tool from the thread title.

 

[Love]

Yes, which again - is one sentence with zero substantive facts being presented. How does that amount to an argument?

Please explain what being 2-9 (or thereabouts), at the time of the thread being made, indicates something was more bust than cup? There must be some ancillary reason that it was more bust than cup, other than a snapshot of a record 15% of the way into the season. Especially given the cup is not awarded to the best regular season team.


1 - The poster I am responding to claims you did, if you agree with me that you did not, you should let them know.
2 - I was told by Divine to reference the current thread OP and title, which is what I've done. If you want the OP to stand for longer, don't create a sandcastle that the Mods can easily wash away. This is why the OP exists as a separate tool from the thread title.

Fair enough, sounds like an understandable misunderstanding to me. I don’t feel the need to update the OP - I don’t know what I would even say. But I believe it does provide context to know I asked a question in the title.

IIRC the title was something like “The Oilers start the season 1-4-1. Are they at risk of missing the playoffs?”

 

[Bear of Bad News]

I'll take care of it.

 

[PuckG]

A regular jimmy rustler of the Oilers enters this thread and lots of people take the bait. I was wondering why this thread was so active this afternoon.

Who better to make “pace” related arguments than a Leafs fan?

Reminds me of the first 40 games of Matthews historic goal scoring run. Leaf fans could not fathom that the pace was meaningless in the grand scheme of 82 games.

 

[Nostradumbass]

That makes no sense.

So what's your prediction actually - that they finish 42-39-1? I can agree with that - it's a similar pace.

You're arguing they're a much better team than their pace suggests - but want to make a bet that they have normal deviations in their current pace? I think we're on the same page if we're both arguing that their current pace is what they are.

How about 99.5 points - over/under?

Your over/under doesn’t reflect your comments regarding the team. Your pace comments would dictate an over/under of 78.5 points. You could even justify 89.5 points with their recent pace with the admission they’re not as bad as they were to start the season.

When something is on the line, all of a sudden you feel the Oilers are a materially better team.

 

[Macheteops]

Is there anything else you'd like to say that shows you don't understand hockey, or is that it?

I think that's about it

 

[Woodrow]

Why would a mod ruin a perfectly good title?

 

[11Messier]

First - I hope Edmonton, Calgary and Colorado all make it in (with Vancouver) it would be good hockey to watch.

February will break Edmonton’s season. They have an easy schedule in January, mostly home games and no back to backs. In January they play 12 games and 10 of them are in the West.

Starts with a 3 game road trip (VGK/ANA/LAK), home to Detroit, on the road to STL/DAL/ARI, home to Boston followed by MIN/CAL/LAK/STL.

They likely will have to run the tables or too many points will be given back to teams currently above them.

I know there are members that love the Oilers and those that hate them. I am trying to be objective and not care if you hope or do not hope they make it. My point is strictly about the math. People are stating that it would be some huge miracle if they make the playoffs and I just don't see it that way.

As I stated. As of today, they are basically 1 point behind if they win their 2 games in hand. Yes. The Oilers have certain stretches in their schedules that are both good and bad. But that is no different than the teams they are battling for a wild card spot. Are you saying Nashville/Calgray,St Louis,Arizona etc... have cake walk schedules the rest of the way?

They don't need to catch VGK. LA or VAN. All they need to do at this point is just be slightly better than the two wild cards and the teams below them in the West. Nothing extreme needed. I know they had a bad start for what ever reason but If they can't be "slightly" better than these few teams for the next 50 games then they have no business being in the playoffs anyways.

Based on what I said, I think the Oilers will make the playoffs no problem.

 

[Divine]

Your over/under doesn’t reflect your comments regarding the team. Your pace comments would dictate an over/under of 78.5 points. You could even justify 89.5 points with their recent pace with the admission they’re not as bad as they were to start the season.

When something is on the line, all of a sudden you feel the Oilers are a materially better team.

My over/under has to account for their likely trade deadline (and prior) acquisitions. You think this team is taking a 3.25M overage hit for Connor Brown and standing pat?

Last year they traded for Ekholm. This year, I assume they'll deal their first round pick again.

I'd be comfortable betting 89.5 points for this exact team - but I assume they're trading their 1st round pick again this year to improve their team. They're already shopping Broberg so it seems they're willing to trade picks and prospects to make the team better.

 

[TheNumber4]

Good god there’s a lot of expert opinions about the Oilers being spewed here based on literally nothing but looking at NHL.com’s standings page and doing some simple napkin math.

As if it wasn’t obvious that making the playoffs are going to be hard. What a hot take. Yeesh what waste of time to read.

Anyways if you actually watched the team like Oilers fans do, you’d know Playoffs=Lock.

 

[TheOrangeDesk]

why do so many leaf fans think think the ability to look up stats makes them statisticians. literally dunning kruger effect in action

 

[Bjornar Moxnes]

Canes are not a top team this year lol. Theyre right in the middle league wide atm. Theyre doing worse than the Flyers.

Prior to their western Canada funk they were.

 

[WestCoast CyberG]

I know there are members that love the Oilers and those that hate them. I am trying to be objective and not care if you hope or do not hope they make it. My point is strictly about the math. People are stating that it would be some huge miracle if they make the playoffs and I just don't see it that way.

As I stated. As of today, they are basically 1 point behind if they win their 2 games in hand. Yes. The Oilers have certain stretches in their schedules that are both good and bad. But that is no different than the teams they are battling for a wild card spot. Are you saying Nashville/Calgray,St Louis,Arizona etc... have cake walk schedules the rest of the way?

They don't need to catch VGK. LA or VAN. All they need to do at this point is just be slightly better than the two wild cards and the teams below them in the West. Nothing extreme needed. I know they had a bad start for what ever reason but If they can't be "slightly" better than these few teams for the next 50 games then they have no business being in the playoffs anyways.

Based on what I said, I think the Oilers will make the playoffs no problem.

On Nov.23 the Oilers had 11 points on a record of 5-12-1, they have since won 6 straight (11-12-1) for a total of 23 points.

During that same time:
- NSH were 5 points ahead, added 12 points and are still 5 points ahead.
- ARI were 7 points ahead, added 10 points and are still 5 points ahead.
- MIN were 3 points ahead, added 8 points and are now 1 point back.
- STL were 10 points ahead, added 6 points and are still 4 points ahead.

Oilers just won 6 straight and all they have to show is passing SEA (who are tanking) and ANA (who lost 6). No ground on Nash, 2 points on Ari and Minn kept pace.

When you are playing from behind like the Oilers all the other teams you are chasing also play each other and gain points which automatically increases the gap.

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

On Nov.23 the Oilers had 11 points on a record of 5-12-1, they have since won 6 straight (11-12-1) for a total of 23 points.

During that same time:
- NSH were 5 points ahead, added 12 points and are still 5 points ahead.
- ARI were 7 points ahead, added 10 points and are still 5 points ahead.
- MIN were 3 points ahead, added 8 points and are now 1 point back.
- STL were 10 points ahead, added 6 points and are still 4 points ahead.

Oilers just won 6 straight and all they have to show is passing SEA (who are tanking) and ANA (who lost 6). No ground on Nash, 2 points on Ari and Minn kept pace.

When you are playing from behind like the Oilers all the other teams you are chasing also play each other and gain points which automatically increases the gap.

Now do the part that shows how many games each team has played since November 23rd.

 

[Coffey]

Now do the part that shows how many games each team has played since November 23rd.

NSH - 10
ARI - 7
MIN - 8
SEA - 6
EDM - 6

 

[Three On Zero]

Why would a mod ruin a perfectly good title?

Because people can’t remain civilized

 

[AnInjuredJasonZucker]

NSH - 10
ARI - 7
MIN - 8
SEA - 6
EDM - 6

Nashville only needed 4 extra games to maintain their lead.

 

[TheNumber4]

On Nov.23 the Oilers had 11 points on a record of 5-12-1, they have since won 6 straight (11-12-1) for a total of 23 points.

During that same time:
- NSH were 5 points ahead, added 12 points and are still 5 points ahead.
- ARI were 7 points ahead, added 10 points and are still 5 points ahead.
- MIN were 3 points ahead, added 8 points and are now 1 point back.
- STL were 10 points ahead, added 6 points and are still 4 points ahead.

Oilers just won 6 straight and all they have to show is passing SEA (who are tanking) and ANA (who lost 6). No ground on Nash, 2 points on Ari and Minn kept pace.

When you are playing from behind like the Oilers all the other teams you are chasing also play each other and gain points which automatically increases the gap.

You are wasting too much times on these maths just to say making playoffs hard and trying to fantasize about an Oilers playoff miss.

 

[North Cole]

On Nov.23 the Oilers had 11 points on a record of 5-12-1, they have since won 6 straight (11-12-1) for a total of 23 points.

During that same time:
- NSH were 5 points ahead, added 12 points and are still 5 points ahead.
- ARI were 7 points ahead, added 10 points and are still 5 points ahead.
- MIN were 3 points ahead, added 8 points and are now 1 point back.
- STL were 10 points ahead, added 6 points and are still 4 points ahead.

Oilers just won 6 straight and all they have to show is passing SEA (who are tanking) and ANA (who lost 6). No ground on Nash, 2 points on Ari and Minn kept pace.

When you are playing from behind like the Oilers all the other teams you are chasing also play each other and gain points which automatically increases the gap.

So with 12 available points, they made up +0/+2/+4/+6 and got more games in hand on some of these teams. That doesn't paint the picture you want it to paint.

Also, adding random narrative blurbs in brackets doesn't change the fact that those teams were passed. If the argument is about making the playoffs, no one cares if the teams being passed are actively tanking or are bad. Not sure how MIN kept pace when they got passed.

 

[WestCoast CyberG]

Now do the part that shows how many games each team has played since November 23rd.

If you have a counter argument let’s have it…lol. “We have more games” is wishful thinking at best.

 

[WestCoast CyberG]

You are wasting too much times on these maths just to say making playoffs hard and trying to fantasize about an Oilers playoff miss.

I am speaking from experience. Canucks lost 7 straight a few years ago and missed the playoffs by only a couple points.

It is possible to objectively have an opinion on an team and still be a fan…I actually don’t mind the Oilers and hope they make it. I just don’t think they will because they have already lost too many and have no room for error. Given their schedule in February….yikes.

 

[5 14 6 1]

If you have a counter argument let’s have it…lol. “We have more games” is wishful thinking at best.

This is the most outrageous statement I have ever read. In what earth does having games in hand not matter? You do know if the Oilers win those games (or even OTL) your numbers completely change. I'll hang up and listen.