Oilers hype: Is HF buying in on a 2024 run?

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Leksand

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Oct 30, 2013
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Called penalties doesn't tell you anything about missed calls. If there were 100% more rule breaking plays and 20% more penalties called that would still be putting the whistles away. Not saying EDM lost on reffing, not a fan of those excuses, but teams that rely on strong PPs and not strong, high effort 5 on 5 play don't succeed in the playoffs because game management is magnified and the refs will not give you every call even if the physical play is quite one sided. This is not something I have data for but everyone knows that there are types of interference and hits that you can easily identify and say that's a regular season penalty and not a playoff one.
Really don’t disagree with anything you say. And again, really felt EDM, especially it’s D, was a bit overwhelmed by Vegas’ play / system. Can’t say EDM shouldn‘t have a few more PPs though, which would‘ve made a difference, just not what stood out to me.
 

El Travo

Why are we still here? Just to suffer?
Aug 11, 2015
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3rd goal was after Foegele missed the net and the puck made a hard carom outside the zone.

They also had two defensemen at the hashmarks together. A missed shot wouldn't have lead to a 2 on 0 if not for the braindead decision to have both defensemen pinch at the same time.
 

Leksand

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Oct 30, 2013
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Someone pointed out a better analysis and you just dismissed it.

We get it, you’re either in denial or love shit playoff officiating.


That’s a lot of words for “i like it when they don’t call penalties in the playoffs”
The “reffing destroys the playoffs” crowd is really so angry! I’m not fundamentally disagreeing with the observations, but I do think the NHL playoffs are among the best there is in sports, enjoying It every year.

I also don’t care for the arrogance of this crowd, assuming superior knowledge and intelligence, feeling morally superior, and being so condescending

You really felt Edmonton lost against Vegas due to reffing? And this is an actual question. What did you see?
 

kranuck

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Mar 11, 2023
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The “reffing destroys the playoffs” crowd is really so angry! I’m not fundamentally disagreeing with the observations, but I do think the NHL playoffs are among the best there is in sports, enjoying It every year.

I also don’t care for the arrogance of this crowd, assuming superior knowledge and intelligence, feeling morally superior, and being so condescending

You really felt Edmonton lost against Vegas due to reffing? And this is an actual question. What did you see?
I think they are absolute dog shit because of atrocious reffing.
 
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Cup or Bust

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Oct 17, 2017
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I don't think anyone thought (At least I didn't) think that the Oilers roster was set in stone and ready to win a Cup this season. Goaltending was always a question mark and they are still possibly a d-man and a bottom 6 forward short. If they can make the right moves, this is the first season I could see them challenging for the Cup. They have to be willing to make the moves needed. Anyway it's only been 2 games and they actually played pretty well in the last game, certainly deserved a win but one team had a goalie that could make quality saves and one team had a goalie that was not really able to make any quality saves and that is often times the difference between winning and losing a game and the Oilers better realize that if it continues.
 
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Heldig

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Apr 12, 2002
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I think they are absolute dog shit because of atrocious reffing.
Then you are watching the wrong sport IMO.

Reffing is extremely inconsistent for sure. But the playoffs are a war. I would rather them stick their whistles in their pockets and let the guys play than have ticky tack penalties called (especially the fake head snap trying to draw a call type).
 

WetcoastOrca

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I don't think anyone thought (At least I didn't) think that the Oilers roster was set in stone and ready to win a Cup this season. Goaltending was always a question mark and they are still possibly a d-man and a bottom 6 forward short. If they can make the right moves, this is the first season I could see them challenging for the Cup. They have to be willing to make the moves needed. Anyway it's only been 2 games and they actually played pretty well in the last game, certainly deserved a win but one team had a goalie that could make quality saves and one team had a goalie that was not really able to make any quality saves and that is often times that is the difference between winning and losing a game and the Oilers better realize that if it continues.
‘I don't think anyone thought (At least I didn't) think that the Oilers roster was set in stone and ready to win a Cup this season.’

Then you must have not been on these boards all summer and missed all of the press about the early Captain’s Skate and Cup or Bust.
As for this year being their best chance, I don’t really see their odds being much better than the last two years. A top ten team but not one of the top contenders. They have the exact same issues we’ve seen for the last number of years now. The addition of Connor Brown and the loss of some decent players doesn’t really change much.

That said, they are a very good team that could go on a run if everything lines up for them.
 
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EdmFlyersfan

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Oilers are desperate already after 2 games into the season, it's looks like Woody is going with McDavid and Drai on the 1st unit next game. :laugh:
 

UrbanImpact

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Apr 12, 2021
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My honest opinion of the Oilers based on the 2 game mini series vs my Canucks.

1. Goaltending is atrocious. Campbell by far probably holds the record for getting beat glove side. Skinner doesnt look much better, he lacks fundamental qualities that most starting Goalies have like positioning.

2. Bouchard is not Dman but a Powerplay QB. He needs to be straddled with a very good defensive Dman like Ekholm in order to be playable 5 on 5. He seems to have no motor and lacks any sort of compete in any board battles. Grip it and Rip it type of player. Atrocious when played with Nurse in Game 1.

3. I dont know what Evander Kane did this off-season but he looks out of shape, or gassed, or over the hill. I kinda see his trajectory being similar to Milan Lucic's decline in play. He can still be usefull and provide crease presence for the big boys but it does not seem like who took off-season training very seriously.

4. Oilers look lost with their new zone defence system.

5. Mcdavid and Drai stay for almost all of the 2 minutes in a powerplay. Has the team not learned their lesson on why these guys look gassed by April?

6. Nurse is robbing that fan base, i dont know how he tricked Holland into paying him 9.2 mil per year. He is a # 3-4 Dman.

7. Connor Brown seems like an unnecessary addition to the team, the backend or goaltending could have probably used an upgrade before the wingers. He looks rusty

8. Mcdavid and Drai are the best there is in the NHL. Drai looks like Jagr/Forsberg to me and Mcdavid is a mix of Bure/Mackinnon to me. The Oilers are to dependable on them too and continue to lack depth and system play.

9. Oilers game is 100% built for the regular season with open ice play and multiple powerplays. im very surprised they havent changed their core to reflect better for playoff style hockey.
 

Church Hill

I'd drink it
Nov 16, 2007
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3. I dont know what Evander Kane did this off-season but he looks out of shape, or gassed, or over the hill. I kinda see his trajectory being similar to Milan Lucic's decline in play. He can still be usefull and provide crease presence for the big boys but it does not seem like who took off-season training very seriously.

Kane has focused this offseason on shilling for "luxury water" companies. In general he has never come off as a guy who cares deeply about winning a championship, seems to me like he's a guy who treats hockey as job to fund his real interests.

1697478970357.png
 
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Sidney the Kidney

One last time
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I don't know if I ever saw them as a "Top 3 team", but it's funny how HF's doing it's usual thing of writing off teams/players after small sample sizes.
 

kranuck

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Mar 11, 2023
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Then you are watching the wrong sport IMO.

Reffing is extremely inconsistent for sure. But the playoffs are a war. I would rather them stick their whistles in their pockets and let the guys play than have ticky tack penalties called (especially the fake head snap trying to draw a call type).
The playoffs are supposed to be a f***ing hockey game.

I want to watch that sport, not whatever the hell thing it is you like.
 
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TruKnyte

Give me the meds now
Jan 1, 2012
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Maybe you should learn to read (and get a hold of the context) before responding to something trying to act all tough and mighty.

Notably, my last paragraph, where I specifically mention that more might go uncalled than during the regular season due to higher stakes and thus higher intensity.

I responded to a post where the OP mentioned the number of PP opportunities going down in the playoffs, not to a post that said the reffing standard was different.


Nice to see said analysis, which I didn't bother going to go into details with due to lack of readily available data on my end (would have taken one-two hours at least to colligate all of it over a large enough sample), has already been made. In the end, the initial claim does remain a "myth", but it wouldn't if the claim was "the number of PP opportunities goes down the further you go in the playoffs", albeit as stated, the sample is very small and thus provides with a large interval of confidence (that might actually be larger than the observed reduction of ~7%) if looking at averages.

It'd be interesting to see the analysis pushed even further in order to really explain if the observed data is a result of reffing or rather other external factors, such as :
1) Teams may take lesser risks the higher the stakes are (almost impossible to do with data)
2) Better teams tend to take less penalties, and better teams tend to go farther in the playoffs;
3) Teams adapt to how referees call the games (also almost impossible to do with data, or even at all)
4) As playoffs goes on, players get more and more tired, and thus they might be less likely to draw/take some types of penalties (skating slower, hitting less hard, etc.)
etc.

True, it's probably a combination of all of those factors.

The main takeaway I had though was that if the Oilers want to go far in the post season (and assuming a Cup is their goal), they'll have to improve on their 5v5 scoring and rely less on the PP (particularly the deeper they go).

That’s hyperbole (by the Athletic authors) - 7% fewer pps per game for a part of the playoffs is not “refs throwing away the whistle”. I’m not saying reffing in the playoffs cannot be adjusted / improved.

I will say though that the Oilers were not eliminated due to weak reffing. Some of their D men were just bad against VGK to just mention one major reason much more important than reffing.

Some journalistic license may have been taken there, but the calls generally get tighter the deeper the playoffs go.

Agreed that the Oilers will get as far as their defense (and goaltending) will take them.
 

Evil__Homer

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Jun 7, 2006
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Just my take but the Oilers have a good team to win the cup. BUT.... their goalies suck.
Not sure when the last time the Oilers had a good goalie but it's been at least 8 to 10 years.

Great team but at some point they need to get a good goalie, not sure why this is taking them so long.
Also forgot... Yea Nurse sucks and not sure wtf they where thinking.
 

BrendanGaunce4Selke

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Oct 11, 2023
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I still believe Edmonton is a Cup contender. They were unlucky to lose both those games to Vancouver, although I did enjoy it immensely.
what? they got outplayed in game 1 in every facet of the game.

game 2, they outshot van. but van did a great job of taking away high dangers chances. a lot of those shots were easy saves for Desmith
 
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The Management

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Jun 8, 2009
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If they didn't get blown up by Vancouver in game one, we're probably not having this discussion. If I recall correctly, they didn't really hit their stride last year until later in the season.

They'll be fine, and they're still contenders for the Stanley Cup.

But the critics are also right to point out that their issues appear to be a continuation of their problems from last year. So, they've got some work do, and I do worry that a bad start could really throw a goalie like Jack Campbell further off-kilter.
 
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Pastor Of Muppetz

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Oct 1, 2017
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I find it odd that they rushed Ekholm into the lineup on Saturday..The player literally said ‘he wasn’t there yet’ as far as being 100%

Desperation move imo.
 
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