Oilers hype: Is HF buying in on a 2024 run?
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PromisedLand
I need more FOOD
BrendanGaunce4Selke
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Kairi Zaide
Unforgiven
Even if that was the reason... They do not, that's a myth. There might be situations where it's true for some teams - I haven't checked for each one individually, but on average, yeah, PP opps don't go down. I haven't checked either after the first round only.
In fact, there are (significantly) more minor penalties (thus PP opps) called per 60 in the playoffs than in the regular season.
This myth is derived from the apparent increase in intensity in the playoffs (which is definitely true), leading to more more potential obvious penalties going uncalled compared to the regular season. Refs being very careful to call penalties in OT might also have to do with that (I haven't checked, but I'm sure if we looked at OT penalties vs non-OT penalties, there'd be a difference - in any case, that would mean that outside of OT, in the playoffs, the orange line above should be slightly higher than it is)
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HockeyVirus
Woll stan.
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From what I have seen Holloway is going to be a player but that highlights the problem anyways. Even if you hit, they are not going to be ready during your window.
There is 2 years of Draisatl at a complete steal of a cap hit and 3 of McDavid. Spend the first and win a cup and who cares if you gave up the next draft steal with the 32nd pick
jackjohnson
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Czechboy
Češi do toho!
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I'm already eyeing Holloway to take Brown's spot in Top 6.
I agree though... we are in win now mode without a win now team.
jackjohnson
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BrendanGaunce4Selke
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This is the biggest issue for that market, they struggle to lure any high end talent. The team needs to heavily rely on drafting and development, yet they still struggle in that department.
Kane they got because no one wanted him… twice
Hyman got a contract that’s going to suck the last 3-4 years
McDavid and Draisaitl are play drivers, you look at the rest of the top 6 and it’s made up with passengers. Hyman, Kane and Nuge are not play drivers, they can’t dictate play when on the ice. They need to heavily rely on whatever McDavid and Draisaitl do.
The coach typically runs one powerplay unit, how is that suppose to build any kind of team when the rest of the players know they have no chance to ever play the powerplay?
The leadership group of McDavid, Draisiatl and Nurse is usually the first group of people to let their emotions get the best of them in games and they start taking ridiculous penalties. Again, what kind of message does that send to the rest of the bench?
McDavid is a talent great enough to single-handedly carry the team into the playoffs but they severely lack what is needed as a group to go deep
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To be fair, it's almost impossible to lure high-end talent to the Oilers when half of their salary cap is sunk on 5 players (McDavid/Draisaitl/Nurse/Ekholm/Campbell) and then you have another 30M spent on Kane, Hyman, Bouchard, Ceci, Foegele, Kulak, and Nugent Hopkins. So that's ~71M on 12 players and you still have another 11 roster spots to fill on 12M. Not only does that mean that your depth players have to either come in at league minimum salaries, but it also means that you don't have enough cap space to lure a higher-end player unless they come in on a 1 year/1M "Cup or Bust" contract.
Raistlin
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Maybe if they can draft players beyond the second round, then they don't have to worry about that. I hate to say it, Edmonton has a disadvantage because of their location, that is reality, so they need to draft like Tampa does, have a strategy to target unique players in deeper rounds that fit their style of play. They need to be smarter than other teams and Holland's scouts won't do. They don't need Hakan Andersson, Murray or Brackett, whatever they had for the last 15 years just won't do.
This is dumb, but here's the first 2 games for recent Cup winners:
2023 Vegas: 2-0-0
2022 Colorado: 1-1-0
2021 Tampa: 2-0-0
2020 Tampa: 1-1-0
2019 St Louis: 0-1-1
2018 Washington: 2-0-0
2017 Pittsburgh: 2-0-0
2016 Pittsburgh: 0-2-0
2015 Chicago: 2-0-0
2014 Los Angeles: 1-1-0
2013 Chicago: 2-0-0
2012 Los Angeles: 1-1-0
2011 Boston: 1-1-0
2010 Chicago: 1-0-1
2009 Pittsburgh: 1-1-0
2008 Detroit: 1-0-1
2007 Anaheim: 2-0-0
2006 Carolina: 1-1-0
2004 Tampa: 2-0-0-0
2003 New Jersey: 2-0-0-0
2002 Detroit: 2-0-0-0
2001 Colorado: 0-0-2-0
2000 New Jersey: 1-1-0-0
10 started with 2 wins
10 started with only 1 win
2 started with no wins but at least one loser point
1 started with no wins and no points
2023 Vegas: 2-0-0
2022 Colorado: 1-1-0
2021 Tampa: 2-0-0
2020 Tampa: 1-1-0
2019 St Louis: 0-1-1
2018 Washington: 2-0-0
2017 Pittsburgh: 2-0-0
2016 Pittsburgh: 0-2-0
2015 Chicago: 2-0-0
2014 Los Angeles: 1-1-0
2013 Chicago: 2-0-0
2012 Los Angeles: 1-1-0
2011 Boston: 1-1-0
2010 Chicago: 1-0-1
2009 Pittsburgh: 1-1-0
2008 Detroit: 1-0-1
2007 Anaheim: 2-0-0
2006 Carolina: 1-1-0
2004 Tampa: 2-0-0-0
2003 New Jersey: 2-0-0-0
2002 Detroit: 2-0-0-0
2001 Colorado: 0-0-2-0
2000 New Jersey: 1-1-0-0
10 started with 2 wins
10 started with only 1 win
2 started with no wins but at least one loser point
1 started with no wins and no points
BrendanGaunce4Selke
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whoa, stats dont lie
just kidding
i think we are all over reacting, the oilers will be fine
they dont play vancouver till november
The PP problem isn’t count, it’s volatility. You spend such a small percentage of the game a man up, all it takes is an extra save or post or two to wreck a hot pp. I’m pretty sure the oil have had good pp numbers in the playoffs but have an off night or two and that’s it.
TruKnyte
Give me the meds now
True, although one could argue that not all PP are created equally. This article on the Athletic does a pretty good job describing this:
"The reality of the situation is that, while the number of power plays go up in the playoffs, it isn’t even across games. The games that are more likely to see more penalty calls than in the regular season are the first four games of the first two rounds. In those eight games, there are 3.5 power plays per team per contest, 17 percent more than the regular-season average. In the other 20 possible games in the playoffs, there are 2.8 power plays per game, seven percent lower than the regular-season average.
Later in series? Good luck getting a power play."
Power plays increase in the NHL playoffs, yes, but here's why that feels deceptive
A look at data in recent years reveals that not all games are called equally.
theathletic.com
HFBoards backseat GMs are missing the forest from the trees again.
The criticism of the Oilers front office is fair but with only 3 years left on the McDavid contract, the Oilers can't adopt a draft and develop strategy like Tampa Bay did because even if you're drafting like Tampa, guys drafted in the 3rd round+ take 2-3 years minimum to become NHL players.
Here's a list of Tampa players from their 19-20 Cup team, only listing home grown
2nd round picks or later:
Kucherov - Drafted in 2011, played first game in 2013
Point - Drafted in 2014, played first game in 2016
Killorn - Drafted in 2007, played first game in 2012
Cirelli - 2015, first game 2017
Palat - 2011, first game 2012
Joseph - 2015, first game 2018
And typically dmen which the Oilers need take longer to become NHLers. The Oilers are in win now mode until at least next year when they are eligible to extend Draisaitl. If they can do that long term they can start thinking about the Tampa model. Until then with only a few seasons left on McDrai contract they have to go for it.
What they need to do is find ways of trading for their positional needs.
The criticism of the Oilers front office is fair but with only 3 years left on the McDavid contract, the Oilers can't adopt a draft and develop strategy like Tampa Bay did because even if you're drafting like Tampa, guys drafted in the 3rd round+ take 2-3 years minimum to become NHL players.
Here's a list of Tampa players from their 19-20 Cup team, only listing home grown
2nd round picks or later:
Kucherov - Drafted in 2011, played first game in 2013
Point - Drafted in 2014, played first game in 2016
Killorn - Drafted in 2007, played first game in 2012
Cirelli - 2015, first game 2017
Palat - 2011, first game 2012
Joseph - 2015, first game 2018
And typically dmen which the Oilers need take longer to become NHLers. The Oilers are in win now mode until at least next year when they are eligible to extend Draisaitl. If they can do that long term they can start thinking about the Tampa model. Until then with only a few seasons left on McDrai contract they have to go for it.
What they need to do is find ways of trading for their positional needs.
Leksand
Registered User
Many thanks for posting!
I still think it’s true as you say that more minor penalties go uncalled in the playoff. Then combine that with players giving 110% in effort and focus, and you have a different game. Not a novel observation of course but that’s where some teams struggle.
I feel like every situation you didn’t bother to check shows exactly why your argument is dumb shit.
Raw numbers mean nothing. Guys get away with murder in the playoffs every year.
Watch the $10 million dollar man have a typical (for him) brain fart.
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Leksand
Registered User
"The reality of the situation is that, while the number of power plays go up in the playoffs, it isn’t even across games. The games that are more likely to see more penalty calls than in the regular season are the first four games of the first two rounds. In those eight games, there are 3.5 power plays per team per contest, 17 percent more than the regular-season average. In the other 20 possible games in the playoffs, there are 2.8 power plays per game, seven percent lower than the regular-season average. Later in series? Good luck getting a power play."
Power plays increase in the NHL playoffs, yes, but here's why that feels deceptive
A look at data in recent years reveals that not all games are called equally.
That’s hyperbole (by the Athletic authors) - 7% fewer pps per game for a part of the playoffs is not “refs throwing away the whistle”. I’m not saying reffing in the playoffs cannot be adjusted / improved.
I will say though that the Oilers were not eliminated due to weak reffing. Some of their D men were just bad against VGK to just mention one major reason much more important than reffing.
Leksand
Registered User
Well thank you for correcting the “dumb shit“ argument with your well motivated granular analysis….
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Called penalties doesn't tell you anything about missed calls. If there were 100% more rule breaking plays and 20% more penalties called that would still be putting the whistles away. Not saying EDM lost on reffing, not a fan of those excuses, but teams that rely on strong PPs and not strong, high effort 5 on 5 play don't succeed in the playoffs because game management is magnified and the refs will not give you every call even if the physical play is quite one sided. This is not something I have data for but everyone knows that there are types of interference and hits that you can easily identify and say that's a regular season penalty and not a playoff one.
Kairi Zaide
Unforgiven
Maybe you should learn to read (and get a hold of the context) before responding to something trying to act all tough and mighty.
Notably, my last paragraph, where I specifically mention that more might go uncalled than during the regular season due to higher stakes and thus higher intensity.
I responded to a post where the OP mentioned the number of PP opportunities going down in the playoffs, not to a post that said the reffing standard was different.
Nice to see said analysis, which I didn't bother going to go into details with due to lack of readily available data on my end (would have taken one-two hours at least to colligate all of it over a large enough sample), has already been made. In the end, the initial claim does remain a "myth", but it wouldn't if the claim was "the number of PP opportunities goes down the further you go in the playoffs", albeit as stated, the sample is very small and thus provides with a large interval of confidence (that might actually be larger than the observed reduction of ~7%) if looking at averages.True, although one could argue that not all PP are created equally. This article on the Athletic does a pretty good job describing this:
"The reality of the situation is that, while the number of power plays go up in the playoffs, it isn’t even across games. The games that are more likely to see more penalty calls than in the regular season are the first four games of the first two rounds. In those eight games, there are 3.5 power plays per team per contest, 17 percent more than the regular-season average. In the other 20 possible games in the playoffs, there are 2.8 power plays per game, seven percent lower than the regular-season average.
Later in series? Good luck getting a power play."
Power plays increase in the NHL playoffs, yes, but here's why that feels deceptive
A look at data in recent years reveals that not all games are called equally.
It'd be interesting to see the analysis pushed even further in order to really explain if the observed data is a result of reffing or rather other external factors, such as :
1) Teams may take lesser risks the higher the stakes are (almost impossible to do with data)
2) Better teams tend to take less penalties, and better teams tend to go farther in the playoffs;
3) Teams adapt to how referees call the games (also almost impossible to do with data, or even at all)
4) As playoffs goes on, players get more and more tired, and thus they might be less likely to draw/take some types of penalties (skating slower, hitting less hard, etc.)
etc.
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