Oilers hype: Is HF buying in on a 2024 run?

[kranuck]

Well thank you for correcting the “dumb shit“ argument with your well motivated granular analysis….

Someone pointed out a better analysis and you just dismissed it.

We get it, you’re either in denial or love shit playoff officiating.

Maybe you should learn to read (and get a hold of the context) before responding to something trying to act all tough and mighty.

Notably, my last paragraph, where I specifically mention that more might go uncalled than during the regular season due to higher stakes and thus higher intensity.

I responded to a post where the OP mentioned the number of PP opportunities going down in the playoffs, not to a post that said the reffing standard was different.


Nice to see said analysis, which I didn't bother going to go into details with due to lack of readily available data on my end (would have taken one-two hours at least to colligate all of it over a large enough sample), has already been made. In the end, the initial claim does remain a "myth", but it wouldn't if the claim was "the number of PP opportunities goes down the further you go in the playoffs", albeit as stated, the sample is very small and thus provides with a large interval of confidence (that might actually be larger than the observed reduction of ~7%) if looking at averages.

It'd be interesting to see the analysis pushed even further in order to really explain if the observed data is a result of reffing or rather other external factors, such as :
1) Teams may take lesser risks the higher the stakes are (almost impossible to do with data)
2) Better teams tend to take less penalties, and better teams tend to go farther in the playoffs;
3) Teams adapt to how referees call the games (also almost impossible to do with data, or even at all)
4) As playoffs goes on, players get more and more tired, and thus they might be less likely to draw/take some types of penalties (skating slower, hitting less hard, etc.)
etc.

That’s a lot of words for “i like it when they don’t call penalties in the playoffs”

 

[Filthy Dangles]

The Oilers have always been a PP specialist team.

Take away their powerplay and they may very well be a lottery team, even with McDrai.

This is Insanely dumb.

They ranked very high 5on5 last year in terms of goals and expected goals.

And if they didn’t have such a hot PP to rely on, 97 and company would push harder 5on5 and find a way to a score instead of trying to protect a lead etc.

 

[Sasha Orlov]

Oilers haven’t had a goalie they could rely on to make a key save since Roloson

They should sell the farm for Askarov

 

[NylanderBros]

Trade the team and build around 15th overall pick Cody Ceci

 

[Kairi Zaide]

Someone pointed out a better analysis and you just dismissed it.

We get it, you’re either in denial or love shit playoff officiating.


That’s a lot of words for “i like it when they don’t call penalties in the playoffs”

If that's your conclusion to what non-opinionated post on that specific topic (wanting more or less penalties), then I do not know what to tell you. Nowhere do I even imply my position on the matter. I simply bring out various points of discussion to what was added and bring out potential hypothesis that would be interesting to analyze if possible.

Your posts scream someone needing to boost their ego by being a condescending topic-derailing joe and bringing nothing of value to a discussion. (Note that I know I myself can be very condescending lol)

 

[X66]

Yeah. Totally. That’s why Bob had a very sustainable .940.

And Carolina needs to work on all 3 as well after Bob posted a series sweep .962 against them.

Yep, he literally had historic numbers going into the finals.

As much fun as it is to rag on oiler fans, they’re gonna be alright.

 

[DudeWhereIsMakar]

I stopped taking them seriously a long time ago.

I thought they'd be a contender by 2014... instead they drafted one of their best players. The following year they were way worse, and they landed one of the GOATS.

If they didn't have McDavid they'd have ended up with Bedard last draft along with other potential first overall picks they would've ruined. There's no fixing that franchise.

 

[M2Beezy]

As a neutral fan who is indifferent to their winning/losing, maybe its time to start selling off older assets and build the team around the younger core (Bouchard, Holloway, Broberg, Skinner, Etc). I bet they can get a nice pile of assets for Mcdavid and Draisatl and start planning for the future

 

[Crazy Cizikas]

For everyone saying goaltending isn't good enough, who called Adin Hill backstopping the cup winning team last year? My guess is nobody. Goalies are a crapshoot.

Depth is a bigger issue which they have slowly improved, yet to see how it fairs though.

So isn’t the oilers goalie situation also a crapshoot? Which they are losing.

 

[Hippasus]

What do you mean by "Taking away their powerplay" ? Do you mean just making it forbidden for McDrai to play on it ? Or you mean just based off their 5v5 game (i.e. powerplays don't exist at all) ?

If it's the latter, putting aside the fact that removing powerplays from the game would completely change how the game is played as a whole, they'd still likely (based off goal differentials) make the playoffs based off strictly their 5v5 play for the past 3 seasons. By a hair, for sure.

If it's the former, do you get to take away the 2 best players off of the powerplay of any opponents they face ? Otherwise, it's quite unfair.

That person is just speaking hypothetically. Like if the powerplay ceases to be a major factor. That could be the outcome of a lot things: opposition can ramp up their penalty kill, the opposition could just be really good at penaly kill, there could be less penalties, etc. If one or more of these factors occur, the poster is saying one could neutralize the Oilers to a large degree. Some combination of these things happened against Vegas last season, round two in the playoffs. But the bigger problem was the Oilers stopped playing tough, for some reason, when that was bringing them success up to that point that season. Maybe they just got worn down after a while, even though it was only the second round.

 

[DJJones]

Cup favorites to trading McDavid for future assets.

What a week

 

[Nemesis Prime]

Cup favorites to trading McDavid for future assets.

What a week

The classic HF dramatics after 2 games.

 

[Kairi Zaide]

That person is just speaking hypothetically. Like if the powerplay ceases to be a major factor. That could be the outcome of a lot things: opposition can ramp up their penalty kill, the opposition could just be really good at penaly kill, there could be less penalties, etc. If one or more of these factors occur, the poster is saying one could neutralize the Oilers to a large degree. Some combination of these things happened against Vegas last season, round two in the playoffs. But the bigger problem was the Oilers stopped playing tough, for some reason, when that was bringing them success up to that point that season. Maybe they just got worn down after a while, even though it was only the second round.

That could be a reasonable explanation to their statement, yeah.

Regarding the bold, Oilers still scored well on the PP against Vegas (slightly above 15 GF/60), and they probably had around 25-29 PPs over the course of 6 games (saying "probably" because the site I'm using only has penalties drawn at 29 - not net PP opps). 9 PP goals in total.
They had ~23 GF/60 (ridiculously high) for 11 total goals in 7 games in round 1 with 23 penalties drawn. They were at ~19 GF/60 during the regular season.

So Vegas did mitigate the Oiler's PP compared to their usual form, but I'd be hard pressed to say they neutralized the Oilers "to a large degree". That's still near-top-of-the-league PP scoring during the regular season (where the quality of opponents, on average, is lower). The other reasons you mention might explain why the Oilers were utterly dominated at 5v5, and ultimately, I feel like that's where the Oilers failed.

 

[VivaLasVegas]

As a neutral fan who is indifferent to their winning/losing, maybe its time to start selling off older assets and build the team around the younger core (Bouchard, Holloway, Broberg, Skinner, Etc). I bet they can get a nice pile of assets for Mcdavid and Draisatl and start planning for the future

That was my thought a couple of years ago, but of course it is heresy with Oiler fans ("You don't trade away a McDavid or Draisatl."). The problem now is that the sands are running out of the clock for the McDavid and Draisatl contracts, and they are probably both going to ask for at least $15M based on the Matthews contract and the Cap increase. So a team acquiring either one of them now would have to hope that (1) they can resign the player when their contracts expire, and (2) they can find the cap space to resign the player at the time. Those are pretty big risks which would cut deeply into the Oilers' trade return even assuming there was a GM out there willing to run the risk.

The harder truth is that Holland or his successor would be signing their own employment termination in Edmonton if they even put either of McDavid or Draisatl on the block, no matter the return. Fans would tar and feather them and run them out of town on a rail.

 

[Hippasus]

1st goal - point shot, tipped. No chance for Skinner, Broberg doing f*** all.

2nd goal - shot from the point, deflected shot. Wingers too low, Kulak and Broberg are there, but didn't do anything. Not tying anyone up. Thats on Kulak.

3rd goal - brutal shot, completely misses the net by someone. 2 on 0. Whomever shot the puck that misses the net that poorly is an idiot

4th goal - this one was weakish. It's not a terrible goal, but it's one you want to see the goalie save.

3rd goal was after Foegele missed the net and the puck made a hard carom outside the zone.

 

[Hippasus]

That could be a reasonable explanation to their statement, yeah.

Regarding the bold, Oilers still scored well on the PP against Vegas (slightly above 15 GF/60), and they probably had around 25-29 PPs over the course of 6 games (saying "probably" because the site I'm using only has penalties drawn at 29 - not net PP opps). 9 PP goals in total.
They had ~23 GF/60 (ridiculously high) for 11 total goals in 7 games in round 1 with 23 penalties drawn. They were at ~19 GF/60 during the regular season.

So Vegas did mitigate the Oiler's PP compared to their usual form, but I'd be hard pressed to say they neutralized the Oilers "to a large degree". That's still near-top-of-the-league PP scoring during the regular season (where the quality of opponents, on average, is lower). The other reasons you mention might explain why the Oilers were utterly dominated at 5v5, and ultimately, I feel like that's where the Oilers failed.

Yeah, I probably just mis-remembered.

 

[BKarchitect]

As a neutral fan who is indifferent to their winning/losing, maybe its time to start selling off older assets and build the team around the younger core (Bouchard, Holloway, Broberg, Skinner, Etc). I bet they can get a nice pile of assets for Mcdavid and Draisatl and start planning for the future

That’s not a core even worth building around. Bouchard is nice. Broberg is a bottom pairing defenseman with some potential but is running out of rope to show he really is a core player. Holloway is a bottom six forward who has shown little indication that he’s going to be a scoring level player in the NHL. Skinner is a bad goalie, young or not (and he’s not even that young anymore).

You keep Bouchard but what they should be doing is making Broberg and Holloway and players of that ilk very, very available in trades to get actual impact NHL help to win now. Because if they lose McDavid and/or Drai in the future, guys like Broberg and Holloway won’t move the needle one iota. It’s 2023, those guys are both 22 and they shouldn’t be even remotely considered untouchable in trades or core building block pieces.

 

[robertmac43]

I just don't see It if the goaltending stays status quo. Not good enough to go on a long run.

 

[CantHaveTkachev]

we will be fine

 

[WhataKnight]

It looks psychological at this point, kind of like the Denver Broncos.

If goaltending/defense slips, it hits like a solid punch at a deviated septum.

Improve D strategy, goalies get confident. Confident goalies produce better stats, and offence should take over from there.

Coaching improves structure, and/or GM improves on-ice personnel.

 

[petterdaddy]

Awww is someone crying because they had to play at even strength?

 

[KrisLetAngry]

This isn't the NBA, you can't win by having 2 elite players. You still need help from the rest of the team.

And the Oilers have a bottom 5 defense, bottom 5 goaltending and the stars on their team don't commit to team defense. Which you need in the playoffs.

Tell that to the 2009 Penguins.

 

[summer tooth]

If they can turn things around, there's certainly a very real chance of making the playoffs.

 

[GreatSaveEssensa]

Tell that to the 2009 Penguins.

That was a decade and a half ago. I don't quite think it proves the point like you think it does

 

[Jericho111091]

I don't really see the oil as the favorite for the cup. But they also wouldn't be some big surprise imo