GDT: Official Trade Deadline Thread Part XXX2

[Lion Hound]

How many wins does this team have left in them?

I'd say no more than 7.

I think thats about right.

 

[Bob Richards]

How many wins does this team have left in them?

I'd say no more than 7.

They have an interesting stretch upcoming.

A short stretch of playoff teams immediatley followed by a stretch of bottom feeders. Going to be an interesting two weeks.

 

[Black Aces]

Stone is further evidence that the old "we will just sign them for free in the summer" isn't something to bank on

The league is certainly different than it was. Prospects and high picks are super valuable. Big player rarely hit the free agent market anymore.

 

[Black Aces]

How many wins does this team have left in them?

I'd say no more than 7.

I think i counted 6 wins when I went through it. That would be clutch. I think that gets us in the 4-7 range.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

Some more trades being posted as the league office catches up?

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Good deadline for this team. Hopefully steal some good players in the draft. Exciting times.

 

[Irishguy42]

Some more trades being posted as the league office catches up?

Most of the queue is cleaned up by now.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

they can't draft anyway

I disagree the last 2 drafts by this team were very promising.

 

[Lion Hound]

I think i counted 6 wins when I went through it. That would be clutch. I think that gets us in the 4-7 range.

Tampa, Montreal, Washington (Home)
Dallas, Detroit (Away)
New Jersey (Home)
Edmonton, Vancouver, Calgary, Minnesota (Away)
Detroit (Home)
Toronto (Away)
Pitt (Home)
Boston (Away)
St Louis (Home)
Philly, Devils (Away)
Ottawa, Columbus (Home)
Pitt (Away)

 

[NYRKING30]

All I know. I want Kreider signed by the draft/July latest. If its not done by then, as much as it pains me to say it, we should then trade him.

 

[leetch99]

TSN 's Craig Button on record ...."Vegas out in first round...not good enough to handle the other teams " . I have to wonder about that too....but I would never say it on national TV LOL. I still like the Jets as my Western pick . Laine going again now....

 

[FireGerardGallant]

All I know. I want Kreider signed by the draft/July latest. If its not done by then, as much as it pains me to say it, we should then trade him.

I don't think he can sign an extension until July 1st but I may be wrong on that

 

[NYRKING30]

I don't think he can sign an extension until July 1st but I may be wrong on that

Yeah your right but they can verbally agree.. I was saying by the draft bc I’m sure that’s a deal involving pick(s) and I’d like to use one this year.

 

[Ola]

Good deadline for this team. Hopefully steal some good players in the draft. Exciting times.

Yeah, a lot of players were shopped but not moved.

I am not sure how many moves Jarmo ended up doing in Columbus, but I think Gorton was the one who filed the highest number of deals with the NHL. Holland, McLeod, Zucc, Hayes and McQuaid. Did anyone else make 5 moves?

Gorton obviously worked really hard and was super prepared going into this deadline. I am sure this will be advantageous for us down the road too. Sometimes talk goes on forever. GMs are so unwilling to take risks.

I hope that Gorton completely stay away from the UFA market for a while, think it will die down eventually but it’s worthles right now. Everyone are overpaid.

Our core will be built from within, but I hope the adds will come through trades. Look at the Montour trade. An OK 1st and a B tier prospect (?). Teams don’t have cap space and GMs don’t want to take risks. There are good value trades to make if you are active.

 

[JHS]

pretty much what i expected

rebuild needs to move along

3 -5 yrs won't work

low 1sts and 2nds wont work and drafting wont build a team unless we have high 1sts

they can't draft anyway

buy players that other teams have drafted

i expect a crazy busy draft day where we move picks for players

sounds good to me since we've done very well with FA's and trades for other teams players.

Yeah these are my thoughts exactly. I think the team got further away from Contention today— not closer! Gave away a 26 year old center in Hayes who absolutely could have been your second or third line center for years to come and got a late 1st round pick that is a crap shoot to become anywhere near the player Hayes is. I’m not impressed with accumulating picks. They are just shots in the dark basically. The strategy better be to package this junk and move up into the top 3 on draft day and take a generational talent. Beyond that, this team is going into the abyss real quick and I see absolutely no light at the end of the tunnel beyond more problems and hope type picks!

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Yeah these are my thoughts exactly. I think the team got further away from Contention today— not closer! Gave away a 26 year old center in Hayes who absolutely could have been your second or third line center for years to come and got a late 1st round pick that is a crap shoot to become anywhere near the player Hayes is. I’m not impressed with accumulating picks. They are just shots in the dark basically. The strategy better be to package this junk and move up into the top 3 on draft day and take a generational talent. Beyond that, this team is going into the abyss real quick and I see absolutely no light at the end of the tunnel beyond more problems and hope type picks!

Yeah just move into the top 3 and get a generational talent, it’s easy!.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Yeah, a lot of players were shopped but not moved.

I am not sure how many moves Jarmo ended up doing in Columbus, but I think Gorton was the one who filed the highest number of deals with the NHL. Holland, McLeod, Zucc, Hayes and McQuaid. Did anyone else make 5 moves?

Gorton obviously worked really hard and was super prepared going into this deadline. I am sure this will be advantageous for us down the road too. Sometimes talk goes on forever. GMs are so unwilling to take risks.

I hope that Gorton completely stay away from the UFA market for a while, think it will die down eventually but it’s worthles right now. Everyone are overpaid.

Our core will be built from within, but I hope the adds will come through trades. Look at the Montour trade. An OK 1st and a B tier prospect (?). Teams don’t have cap space and GMs don’t want to take risks. There are good value trades to make if you are active.

UFA's are going to be expensive going forward, teams must build from within. I'm actually kind of excited for Lemieux as we haven't really had a guy like that in a while, maybe Dubinsky would be the closest? In this system I think he is gonna thrive.

 

[Shesterkybomb]

Yeah these are my thoughts exactly. I think the team got further away from Contention today— not closer! Gave away a 26 year old center in Hayes who absolutely could have been your second or third line center for years to come and got a late 1st round pick that is a crap shoot to become anywhere near the player Hayes is. I’m not impressed with accumulating picks. They are just shots in the dark basically. The strategy better be to package this junk and move up into the top 3 on draft day and take a generational talent. Beyond that, this team is going into the abyss real quick and I see absolutely no light at the end of the tunnel beyond more problems and hope type picks!

We have enough centers, short on wingers. Outside of Kravtsov and Kreider we have nothing on the wings. The team needs to draft some wingers asap.

 

[Minmonster]

When did he say this?

I don't see what he said as falling into that timeline at all. Its hard to really gather what he meant by reading quotes (I'm sure we'll get video later) but I think he means moving more pieces into the roster to get them experience.

If trades are there for young players, great. If we offer sheet someone like Marner and get him from Toronto I will LMFAO until the end of time.

The UFA market isn't really there. We won't get Panarin and all the other big targets are either off or will be off in short time.

I actually believe that Hayes would be an excellent free agent target

 

[FireGerardGallant]

Yeah these are my thoughts exactly. I think the team got further away from Contention today— not closer! Gave away a 26 year old center in Hayes who absolutely could have been your second or third line center for years to come and got a late 1st round pick that is a crap shoot to become anywhere near the player Hayes is. I’m not impressed with accumulating picks. They are just shots in the dark basically. The strategy better be to package this junk and move up into the top 3 on draft day and take a generational talent. Beyond that, this team is going into the abyss real quick and I see absolutely no light at the end of the tunnel beyond more problems and hope type picks!

"All this stuff we just got is crap but let's move it for a top 3 pick". How does that work lol

 

[pblawr]

I'm probably in the minority here, but it seems to me like the odds of Dallas picks yielding a first are probably similar to the Tampa Bay pick.

It seems like the Vegas odds of Tampa winning the cup are currently in the 20-25% range. That implies a ~65-70% chance of winning each series, which makes sense. So the TB pick should have 20-25% chance of turning into a first.

Hockey-Reference gives Dallas 70% chance of making the playoffs. If they had a 35-40% chance of winning each series, that would give them a ~15% chance of making the WCF. So there should be a ~10% chance of this year's 2nd turning into a first rounder as of now (this is pretty similar to the calculation by the athletic stat guy that said 8%) that would go up to a ~15% chance if Dallas made the playoffs.

The odds of Dallas resigning Zuccarello are tougher to figure out. They're an interesting team because they have a strong top line in Seguin, Benn, and Radulov, a strong D core in Klingberg, Heiskanen, and Lindell, and one of the best goalies in the league in Ben Bishop, but they are one of the worst teams in the NHL in terms of secondary scoring. If they fixed the secondary scoring issue, you could make a case for them as a cup contender. Radulov is 32 with 4 years left on his deal and Benn and Seguin are both signed into their mid-30's at a $9 M+ cap hit. So this is their window to go for it and, with Spezza's $7.5 M cap hit is coming off the books this offseason, it would make a lot of sense for them to try to sign a UFA who can provide secondary scoring this offseason. I don't think they'll have the cap room / opportunity to go after Panarin, Duchene, Stone, Pavelski, or Skinner, especially since they need to extend Lindell too. Zuccarello is the next highest scoring UFA forward. Hayes, Nyqist, Dzingel, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Staal, Ferland, and Johansson are the only other forwards who strike me as realistic targets for them. So that's 8 guys and Zuccarello total. Some of the other 8 won't make it to free agency, some will be too expensive for Dallas, some will pick a team other than Dallas, and Dallas won't like some, so it should end up being a pretty small group of realistic targets for Dallas.

The obvious negative with Zuccarello is that they'd have to give up a first round pick to sign him and they wouldn't for someone else. But if they don't end up being able to sign another UFA they like, giving up a first to resign Zuccarello might be a better / cheaper option for them than trading picks / prospects for an RFA / controlled player. Assigning a probability to that is just guesswork, but if it were a 10% probability, then the Dallas picks would basically have the same probability of yielding a first as the Tampa Bay picks. That doesn't seem outrageous to me, especially since we already know they like Zuccarello and he'll have the opportunity to further endear himself to their management once he gets healthy.

So in a nutshell, I would think:

TB Pick: 20-25% of turning into a 1st
Dal 2nd round pick: 10% chance of turning into a 1st that becomes a 15% chance if Dal makes the playoffs
Dal 3rd round pick: Total guesswork, but I think there's a case that the odds are materially higher than 0%. I might guess somewhere in the 5-30% range.
Dal Picks combined: 15-40% chance or turning into a first

 

[TheTakedown]

The quotes from Gorton today basically confirm what Friedman said a few weeks ago.

This will be a short rebuild and they will use the assets they've gained in the past two years to move into competing in the next year or so. Be it offer sheets, trading for big players, or opening up the check book for big players.

This is not going to be a long rebuild. Things will kick into high-gear this offseason.

Wonder if "unconventional" meant offer sheets

 

[TheTakedown]

The quotes from Gorton today basically confirm what Friedman said a few weeks ago.

This will be a short rebuild and they will use the assets they've gained in the past two years to move into competing in the next year or so. Be it offer sheets, trading for big players, or opening up the check book for big players.

This is not going to be a long rebuild. Things will kick into high-gear this offseason.

Like some others have noted, the rangers have already picked 5 times in the 2017 1st and 2018 1st rounds. They will pick at least 2 more times in the 1st round of 2019, with the potential to pick 4 more times (Dallas WCF + Tampa Stanley Cup Win).

That's 9 1st round picks in 3 years. That's also not counting the former 1st round players that have been acquired since that 2017 draft -- DeAngelo, Howden. I haven't touched on the 2nd round and later picks, but we've had 1 of those (Lindbom) as well as several other pieces that are 2nd round draft picks (Lindgren, Hajek, etc).

Rangers have cut off an entire years' worth of drafting by getting those picks using pieces that had value.

This said, I would love to see Hayes and Panarin signed here this summer

 

[Richard Banger]

So uhhh @BBKers that 2% really burnt ya


(For context purposes BBKers said he was 98% sure Hayes was going to CGY)

 

[TheTakedown]

So uhhh @BBKers that 2% really burnt ya


(For context purposes BBKers said he was 98% sure Hayes was going to CGY)

Ahahaha

In all seriousness, sucks that they couldn't nail down an extension for Hayes. That tells me that he wants to not be in a place for Calgary, and The optimist in me tells me he may be a target for the 2019 offseason