GDT: Official Trade Deadline Thread Part XXX2

[darko]

We're getting owned on Wednesday.

And somehow pick up 2 points.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

And somehow pick up 2 points.

I'd be surprised if we scored 2 goals.

We won't be facing Copley... Yes I'm still pissed at him for being f***ing horrible yesterday.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

I'm too lazy to do all the research. What are the assets in/out from the trades starting with the Stepan move?

Out:

• Stepan
• Raanta
• McD
• JT Miller
• Nash
• Grabner
• McLeod
• Zucc
• Hayes
• McQuaid
• Kampfer
• Spooner
• Mazanec
• Holland

 

[Brooklyn Rangers Fan]

So, the Rangers now have 7 open contract slots.

Time to start looking at UDFAs...

 

[Black Aces]

I'd be surprised if we scored 2 goals.

We won't be facing Copley... Yes I'm still pissed at him for being ****ing horrible yesterday.

Couldn't agree more. He was an absolute joke. He was a jerk too trying to act tough.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

I'm too lazy to do all the research. What are the assets in/out from the trades starting with the Stepan move?

Out:

• Stepan Raanta= Lias Anderson, Tony DeAngelo
• McD JT Miller= Brett Howden, Libor Hajek, Nils Lunkvist, 2019 1st or 2nd
• Nash = Ryan Spooner, Ryan Lindgren, Rob O'Gara, Part of K'Andre Miller
• Grabner = Ygor Rykov, the rest of K'andre Miller
• McLeod = 2020 7th
• Zucc= 2019 1st or 2nd, 2020 1st or 3rd
• Hayes = Brendan Lemieux, 2019 1st, conditional 2022 4th
• McQuaid= 2019 4th and 7th, Bergman
• Kampfer - Part of McQuaid
• Spooner - Strome
• Mazanec - 2020 7th
• Holland - Darren Raddysh

nm

 

[Matt4776]

nm

And whatever Namestnikov gets next TDL.

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

And whatever Namestnikov gets next TDL.

I blanked on him!

Yeah what ever he returns next TDL or this summer.

 

[Ail]

If the Rangers plan on being competitive sooner than later (assuming Gorton wants to use his stockpile of picks now, and not a future stockpile) by adding NHL ready players this off-season that means they should be competitive while Kreider is still in his prime, so they should resign him. However they must have a lot of faith in some of the prospects they've already acquired, because where they stand currently is conflicting with that mindset. As of right now, I don't see many proven cornerstones to a rebuild that I am comfortable saying will help carry this team deep in the playoffs.

Kreider - Mika - ?
? - ? - ?
? - ? - ?
? - ? - ?

? - ADA (Still not a sure thing)
? - ?
? - ?

Henrik
?

Chytil, Andersson, Kravtsov, Miller, Shesty, all promising, but all unproven. I don't have much faith in Skjei. Pionk sucks, and the rest of the D will be gone soon. Vesey, Strome, Names, Fast should or will all be gone soon. Buch is at best good depth scoring as it stands now, but I suppose he could still breakout. I like Nieves' potential as a 4C.

I guess my point is, I don't see the Rangers being competitive enough, soon enough to be trying to accelerate the rebuild this off-season. I mean if they really like a young player for the core and the draft is weak or their guy isn't there, sure use the picks to acquire a prospect, but I don't think that will accelerate anything. Essentially a lot of the players already in the system are going to have to jump to the NHL as soon as next season, and make an impact. I'm not counting on that.

 

[Tawnos]

So, the Rangers now have 7 open contract slots.

Time to start looking at UDFAs...

Well the second leading scorers on both Barron’s and Miller’s college teams are seniors.

They’re both small.

 

[NYRKING30]

People... We are still in phase one of the rebuilding stage and will probably be in phase one until the conclusion of the 2019-20 season at the earliest. After next years draft we’ll have a better understanding of where we are at and where we need to go.

 

[Machinehead]

There were minor crashes here and there, but I thought HF was outstanding today.

 

[JHS]

"All this stuff we just got is crap but let's move it for a top 3 pick". How does that work lol

You guys are making my point for me! That’s why I’ve been very consistent in my points all along. These other picks are irrelevant until this team gets a generational talent. They’ve somehow managed to screw up a generational goaltender in Hank and until another talent like him is in this organization we are all just wasting our time.

It’s great to have a zillion draft picks but honestly who cares? Accumulating medium to low end talent just because you have the picks to do so is not a plan for a successful rebuild. It’s a plan to be mediocre to below a average for many years.

 

[FireGerardGallant]

You guys are making my point for me! That’s why I’ve been very consistent in my points all along. These other picks are irrelevant until this team gets a generational talent. They’ve somehow managed to screw up a generational goaltender in Hank and until another talent like him is in this organization we are all just wasting our time.

It’s great to have a zillion draft picks but honestly who cares? Accumulating medium to low end talent just because you have the picks to do so is not a plan for a successful rebuild. It’s a plan to be mediocre to below a average for many years.

We agree that this teams needs a franchise-defining talent but that doesn't mean these draft picks in the mid/late first round are useless. A lot of good players are selected within that general area

 

[jerseyjinx94]

Starting with Brass trade

Out
Derick Brassard
2018 7th Round Pick (Luke Loheit)
2017 3rd Round Pick (Zachary Gallant)
Derek Stepan
Antti Raanta
Nick Holden
Michael Grabner
Rick Nash
Ryan Graves
Ryan McDonagh
JT Miller
Steven Kampfer
2019 4th Round Pick (NYR)
2019 7th Round Pick (NYR)
Cody McLeod
Marek Mazanec
Adam Cracknell
Kevin Hayes
Mats Zuccarello
Cole Schneider
Matt Puempel

In
Mika Zibanejad
Brendan Smith
Anthony DeAngelo
2017 1st Round Pick (ARZ) (Lias Andersson)
Rob O’Gara
2018 3rd Round Pick (BOS) (Joey Keane)
Yegor Rykov
Matt Beleskey
Ryan Lindgren
Ryan Strome
2018 1st Round Pick (BOS-OTT) (K’Andre Miller)
2018 7th Round Pick (CAR) (Riley Hughes)
Chris Bigras
Vladislav Namestnikov
Libor Hajek
Brett Howden
2018 1st Round Pick (TB) (Nils Lundkvist)
2019 2nd Round Pick* (TB)
Julius Bergman
2020 7th Round Pick (VAN)
2020 7th Round Pick (NSH)
Darren Raddysh
Brendan Lemieux
2019 1st Round Pick (WPG)
2020 4th Round Pick** (WPG)
2019 4th Round Pick (CBJ)
2019 7th Round Pick (CBJ)
Connor Brickley
Ryan Sproul
2019 2nd Round Pick*** (DAL)
2020 3rd Round Pick**** (DAL)

*becomes a 1st Round Pick if TB wins the Cup
**only if WPG wins the Cup
***becomes a 1st Round Pick if DAL advances to the WCF and Zucc plays at least 50% of playoff games
****becomes a 1st Round Pick if DAL re-signs Zuccarello

No?

 

[Fitzy]

So, the Rangers now have 7 open contract slots.

Time to start looking at UDFAs...

IMO Bobo Carpenter signing here is a foregone conclusion. He's a Quinn connection.

 

[UAGoalieGuy]

You guys are making my point for me! That’s why I’ve been very consistent in my points all along. These other picks are irrelevant until this team gets a generational talent. They’ve somehow managed to screw up a generational goaltender in Hank and until another talent like him is in this organization we are all just wasting our time.

It’s great to have a zillion draft picks but honestly who cares? Accumulating medium to low end talent just because you have the picks to do so is not a plan for a successful rebuild. It’s a plan to be mediocre to below a average for many years.

3 of the top 7 point scorers this season were selected after pick 50. Frachise talents dont always come from top 3 picks.

 

[LORDE]

So, the Rangers now have 7 open contract slots.

Time to start looking at UDFAs...

Y not... we have turned them into players.

Yeah we dealt draft picks away for magic beans, but no one can take UDFAs away from us.

 

[Lindberg Cheese]

I'm probably in the minority here, but it seems to me like the odds of Dallas picks yielding a first are probably similar to the Tampa Bay pick.

It seems like the Vegas odds of Tampa winning the cup are currently in the 20-25% range. That implies a ~65-70% chance of winning each series, which makes sense. So the TB pick should have 20-25% chance of turning into a first.

Hockey-Reference gives Dallas 70% chance of making the playoffs. If they had a 35-40% chance of winning each series, that would give them a ~15% chance of making the WCF. So there should be a ~10% chance of this year's 2nd turning into a first rounder as of now (this is pretty similar to the calculation by the athletic stat guy that said 8%) that would go up to a ~15% chance if Dallas made the playoffs.

The odds of Dallas resigning Zuccarello are tougher to figure out. They're an interesting team because they have a strong top line in Seguin, Benn, and Radulov, a strong D core in Klingberg, Heiskanen, and Lindell, and one of the best goalies in the league in Ben Bishop, but they are one of the worst teams in the NHL in terms of secondary scoring. If they fixed the secondary scoring issue, you could make a case for them as a cup contender. Radulov is 32 with 4 years left on his deal and Benn and Seguin are both signed into their mid-30's at a $9 M+ cap hit. So this is their window to go for it and, with Spezza's $7.5 M cap hit is coming off the books this offseason, it would make a lot of sense for them to try to sign a UFA who can provide secondary scoring this offseason. I don't think they'll have the cap room / opportunity to go after Panarin, Duchene, Stone, Pavelski, or Skinner, especially since they need to extend Lindell too. Zuccarello is the next highest scoring UFA forward. Hayes, Nyqist, Dzingel, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Staal, Ferland, and Johansson are the only other forwards who strike me as realistic targets for them. So that's 8 guys and Zuccarello total. Some of the other 8 won't make it to free agency, some will be too expensive for Dallas, some will pick a team other than Dallas, and Dallas won't like some, so it should end up being a pretty small group of realistic targets for Dallas.

The obvious negative with Zuccarello is that they'd have to give up a first round pick to sign him and they wouldn't for someone else. But if they don't end up being able to sign another UFA they like, giving up a first to resign Zuccarello might be a better / cheaper option for them than trading picks / prospects for an RFA / controlled player. Assigning a probability to that is just guesswork, but if it were a 10% probability, then the Dallas picks would basically have the same probability of yielding a first as the Tampa Bay picks. That doesn't seem outrageous to me, especially since we already know they like Zuccarello and he'll have the opportunity to further endear himself to their management once he gets healthy.

So in a nutshell, I would think:

TB Pick: 20-25% of turning into a 1st
Dal 2nd round pick: 10% chance of turning into a 1st that becomes a 15% chance if Dal makes the playoffs
Dal 3rd round pick: Total guesswork, but I think there's a case that the odds are materially higher than 0%. I might guess somewhere in the 5-30% range.
Dal Picks combined: 15-40% chance or turning into a first

Manifesto

 

[Ghost of jas]

for anyone who is interested, here is Gorton's presser



FWIW, the tweet about Gorton moving picks for players was taken horribly out of context. He simply presented it as a possibility but also said that it was way to early to make any kind of determinations on what hes going to do with all of these picks. Not to different than what he said last year.

You mean Gorton is sticking to the plan management has laid out, and not the media interpretation, which is always not accurate.

I am shocked...



that this continues to happen.


Not really

 

[Matt4776]

IMO Bobo Carpenter signing here is a foregone conclusion. He's a Quinn connection.

Any insight on Bobo for someone that doesn't watch Hockey East hockey?

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

for anyone who is interested, here is Gorton's presser



FWIW, the tweet about Gorton moving picks for players was taken horribly out of context. He simply presented it as a possibility but also said that it was way to early to make any kind of determinations on what hes going to do with all of these picks. Not to different than what he said last year.

Good, I had a feeling certain people were presenting what he said in a way that fits their narrative. I think Gorton wants to continue building through the draft through to next season at least. I could see us being aggressive in the summer of 2020 but this offseason feels early to be adding big pieces.

Obviously depending on who’s available. If Laine becomes available or something we should obviously be all over that.

 

[Oscar Lindberg]

Tyler Sheehy is probably someone the team is monitoring

They’ve been interested in him for a bit now

 

[ZiGOODejad]

On a side note watching Tampa LA game still hate the bozo Miller

 

[KirkAlbuquerque]

There were minor crashes here and there, but I thought HF was outstanding today.

much better than recent years