GDT: Official Trade Deadline Thread Part XXX2

[Vinny DeAngelo]

There were minor crashes here and there, but I thought HF was outstanding today.

Naw I had crashes after every trade and it was down for 30-45 min after the stone deal

 

[Lays]

We did well this deadline. I have faith in Gorton

 

[will1066]

Naw I had crashes after every trade and it was down for 30-45 min after the stone deal

Like I said earlier, this happens every year, so you figure they'd plan better for it

 

[BroadwayStorm]

I really want the Rangers to really swing for the fences with all those 7th round picks. I am serious.

And to the guy complaining about all the picks.... Seriously wow. Like seriously? People here piss me off so much.

You have to be in it to win it. And these scouts we have are good with low to mid picks so just imagine what they are gonna do with the high ones [Lias doesnt count]. Yes we need talent but you can never have enough picks. I want Jack Hughes as much as the next guy and believe we need that kind of player to stir the drink. But boy if you can build a solid f***ing team around that spot and then get the guy you will win cups. This team is going to build a cup contender with all these picks. And they set themselves up for even more next year. Quick rebuild too when you have that many. And we could still get more stuff if when we needed to trade Kreider or Mika or Lundy. But now we don't even have to do that and we are sitting real pretty.

 

[LORDE]

I really want the Rangers to really swing for the fences with all those 7th round picks. I am serious.

And to the guy complaining about all the picks.... Seriously wow. Like seriously? People here piss me off so much.

You have to be in it to win it. And these scouts we have are good with low to mid picks so just imagine what they are gonna do with the high ones [Lias doesnt count]. Yes we need talent but you can never have enough picks. I want Jack Hughes as much as the next guy and believe we need that kind of player to stir the drink. But boy if you can build a solid ****ing team around that spot and then get the guy you will win cups. This team is going to build a cup contender with all these picks. And they set themselves up for even more next year. Quick rebuild too when you have that many. And we could still get more stuff if when we needed to trade Kreider or Mika or Lundy. But now we don't even have to do that and we are sitting real pretty.

Playing devils advocate why does Lias not count???

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

More with Jeff



Further clarification on what he intends to do with his draft picks, if anyone needed anymore.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

More with Jeff



Further clarification on what he intends to do with his draft picks, if anyone needed anymore.

Does this one have a reporter asking multiple questions about Bergman?

 

[GoAwayPanarin]

Does this one have a reporter asking multiple questions about Bergman?

Unfortunately, no.

 

[will1066]

Gorton showing classic signs of a hoarder.

 

[GeorgeKaplan]

In all seriousness, no surprises from that interview, they’re simultaneously stockpiling assets and creating flexibility. I think they’ll fill some short term spots in free agency, and then make a splashy move if they need to when the kids are carrying the team, not just playing on it

 

[JohnC]

View attachment 191987

Where did you get that pic of @Killem Dafoe ?

 

[Off Sides]

I'm probably in the minority here, but it seems to me like the odds of Dallas picks yielding a first are probably similar to the Tampa Bay pick.

It seems like the Vegas odds of Tampa winning the cup are currently in the 20-25% range. That implies a ~65-70% chance of winning each series, which makes sense. So the TB pick should have 20-25% chance of turning into a first.

Hockey-Reference gives Dallas 70% chance of making the playoffs. If they had a 35-40% chance of winning each series, that would give them a ~15% chance of making the WCF. So there should be a ~10% chance of this year's 2nd turning into a first rounder as of now (this is pretty similar to the calculation by the athletic stat guy that said 8%) that would go up to a ~15% chance if Dallas made the playoffs.

The odds of Dallas resigning Zuccarello are tougher to figure out. They're an interesting team because they have a strong top line in Seguin, Benn, and Radulov, a strong D core in Klingberg, Heiskanen, and Lindell, and one of the best goalies in the league in Ben Bishop, but they are one of the worst teams in the NHL in terms of secondary scoring. If they fixed the secondary scoring issue, you could make a case for them as a cup contender. Radulov is 32 with 4 years left on his deal and Benn and Seguin are both signed into their mid-30's at a $9 M+ cap hit. So this is their window to go for it and, with Spezza's $7.5 M cap hit is coming off the books this offseason, it would make a lot of sense for them to try to sign a UFA who can provide secondary scoring this offseason. I don't think they'll have the cap room / opportunity to go after Panarin, Duchene, Stone, Pavelski, or Skinner, especially since they need to extend Lindell too. Zuccarello is the next highest scoring UFA forward. Hayes, Nyqist, Dzingel, Anders Lee, Brock Nelson, Staal, Ferland, and Johansson are the only other forwards who strike me as realistic targets for them. So that's 8 guys and Zuccarello total. Some of the other 8 won't make it to free agency, some will be too expensive for Dallas, some will pick a team other than Dallas, and Dallas won't like some, so it should end up being a pretty small group of realistic targets for Dallas.

The obvious negative with Zuccarello is that they'd have to give up a first round pick to sign him and they wouldn't for someone else. But if they don't end up being able to sign another UFA they like, giving up a first to resign Zuccarello might be a better / cheaper option for them than trading picks / prospects for an RFA / controlled player. Assigning a probability to that is just guesswork, but if it were a 10% probability, then the Dallas picks would basically have the same probability of yielding a first as the Tampa Bay picks. That doesn't seem outrageous to me, especially since we already know they like Zuccarello and he'll have the opportunity to further endear himself to their management once he gets healthy.

So in a nutshell, I would think:

TB Pick: 20-25% of turning into a 1st
Dal 2nd round pick: 10% chance of turning into a 1st that becomes a 15% chance if Dal makes the playoffs
Dal 3rd round pick: Total guesswork, but I think there's a case that the odds are materially higher than 0%. I might guess somewhere in the 5-30% range.
Dal Picks combined: 15-40% chance or turning into a first

Awesome post, just like to offer there is also a possibility the Rangers and Dallas could work something out between that 3rd and 1st conditional should they want to extend Zucc yet not want to give up the 2020 1st.

 

[Tob]

Really excited to see if all of our castoffs are going to get seriously injured.

 

[BroadwayStorm]

Playing devils advocate why does Lias not count???

Based on limited time watching him play I do not see the skills necessary to justify his draft positioning. He was clearly overdrafted. I do not see any special skillset that I can project that can tell me oh well he's not scoring now or doing much now but look at that shot, or that size, or look at that vision, or look at that speed, that skating, that nothing. He doesn't have a single tool that to me, in my opinion, justifies his draft selection even in the first round. Even intangibles are non-existent right now and even then, imo not a skillset you overdraft anyway. So time will tell but we could have done better with that pick. We should have.

 

[JESSEWENEEDTOCOOK]

Based on limited time watching him play I do not see the skills necessary to justify his draft positioning. He was clearly overdrafted. I do not see any special skillset that I can project that can tell me oh well he's not scoring now or doing much now but look at that shot, or that size, or look at that vision, or look at that speed, that skating, that nothing. He doesn't have a single tool that to me, in my opinion, justifies his draft selection even in the first round. Even intangibles are non-existent right now and even then, imo not a skillset you overdraft anyway. So time will tell but we could have done better with that pick. We should have.

It’s pathetic how obsessed you are with Lias. Didn’t need to see this post to know what the “content” was going to be.

 

[GAGLine]

Gorton showing classic signs of a hoarder.

A sheep hoarder?

 

[BroadwayStorm]

It’s pathetic how obsessed you are with Lias. Didn’t need to see this post to know what the “content” was going to be.

He asked a question and this is my opinion. There is no obsession. Those are my arguments and facts as clearly stated as possible. Whatever you believe, believe.

 

[LORDE]

Based on limited time watching him play I do not see the skills necessary to justify his draft positioning. He was clearly overdrafted. I do not see any special skillset that I can project that can tell me oh well he's not scoring now or doing much now but look at that shot, or that size, or look at that vision, or look at that speed, that skating, that nothing. He doesn't have a single tool that to me, in my opinion, justifies his draft selection even in the first round. Even intangibles are non-existent right now and even then, imo not a skillset you overdraft anyway. So time will tell but we could have done better with that pick. We should have.

If this is your opinion, which is what it is, I just don’t know why you would discount him in ur argument.

At 20 I would hope he’s not finished and while some of what u say is true I won’t disagree I would also caution that hes not done.

McIlrath was going no where and Lias isn’t that prospect.

But thanks for the explanation

 

[Machinehead]

More with Jeff



Further clarification on what he intends to do with his draft picks, if anyone needed anymore.

He sort of reminds me of the guy from Dropkick Murphys

 

[Shesterkybomb]

I'm already excited to see Lemieux here. 100% he gets in a fight first home game he plays.

 

[gravey9]

This is why i'm excited... for the 2020-2021 season

Vets: Zib, Kreids, Skjei

Top 6/top4 Prospects: Kravtsov, Chytil, Buchnevich, 2019 1st, K Miller, D'Angelo, N Lundkvist, Shesty,

Bottom 6/bottom pairing prospects: Andersson, Lemieux, Howden, Reunanen, Rykov, Sjalin

Others to keep eye on: 2020 1st, 2019 1st from WPG, 2019 1st/2nd from TB, Georgiev, Lindgren Keane, Gross, Virta, Barron, Hajek,

Wildcards: (everyone else)

In terms of going from competitive/playoff bubble team to being anything more -- a lot will ride on our 1st round picks the next two drafts and FA in summer 2020. It feels like we probably need at least one if not two "put the team on my back" kind of players to make this core special.

 

[Bacon Artemi Bravo]

This is why i'm excited... for the 2020-2021 season

Vets: Zib, Kreids, Skjei

Top 6/top4 Prospects: Kravtsov, Chytil, Buchnevich, 2019 1st, K Miller, D'Angelo, N Lundkvist, Shesty,

Bottom 6/bottom pairing prospects: Andersson, Lemieux, Howden, Reunanen, Rykov, Sjalin

Others to keep eye on: 2020 1st, 2019 1st from WPG, 2019 1st/2nd from TB, Georgiev, Lindgren Keane, Gross, Virta, Barron, Hajek,

Wildcards: (everyone else)

In terms of going from competitive/playoff bubble team to being anything more -- a lot will ride on our 1st round picks the next two drafts and FA in summer 2020. It feels like we probably need at least one if not two "put the team on my back" kind of players to make this core special.

Agree. We need a couple identity/culture defining players who can lead the way.

 

[FIRE DRURY]

I have a strange suspicion that CK is moved on draft day...

 

[TheBloodyNine]

I have a strange suspicion that CK is moved on draft day...

Wouldn't surprise me. Could a combo of CK plus other parts get them another top 10 pick?

 

[bobbop]

Today was OK. Gorton checked all of the logic boxes and got a reasonable return across the board. There were multiple teams bidding for each player and I assume that he took the best available offers. I would be more concerned if I saw other comparable players bringing back bigger returns. Not today. Buyers were conservative. Under those circumstances I understand why no one made the killer offer for Kreider that would have forced a deal or the back door bargain play on Shattenkirk.

So the second deadline day from hell has passed. The forward ranks have been pretty much decimated although some of the remaining pieces made be moved along the way in hockey trades. No one left is bringing back a big bounty unless they decide to move on Kreider. Can't see that happening unless someone ponies up (at a minimum) a top ten draft pick or a premier prospect.

Next year the focus will be on deconstructing the back end. Shattenkirk's contract will be moveable if he can demonstrate that he can still play. Staal will probably have a day of reckoning with management after the season and he could move this summer or be a deadline deal next year. I don't have much confidence in Smith bouncing back and I expect he will be bought out this summer to free up over $3MM in 2019-20 cap space.

And at the end of the day, I wonder if Henrik will still want to stay through what is shaping up as a painful conclusion to his career.