Speculation: Official Offseason Thread

[CupInSIX]

Lehner seems less likely to me now that Deboer is gone. Lehner/Thompson at 5.767 total seems like an almost perfect goalie situation. But it's still possible as he has positive value and there are some cheaper 1B options available.

Martinez seems like a big locker room loss when they've had locker room losses for like three seasons in a row.

Brossoit and Dadonov seem for sure gone, whether trade or buyout. Coghlan and a pick (hopefully a third) probably sent with one as a sweetener.
I think Patrick leaves also or is on LTIR or waived.
And as counterproductive to scoring more goals as it sounds, Pacioretty. Last year, won't require anything added, injured often and older.

Smith and the RFAs return and Kuzmenko brought in if they give him enough bonuses, and some physical fourth line forward.

Fill any other needs with our own youth.
Brisson, Morozov, Cormier, Chayka, Dugan, Patera are possible to see NHL debuts during the season.
Any of Leschyshyn, Rondbjerg, Dorofeyev, Miromanov, Korczak can possibly get a handful of games.

They need to have an eye to the season after next as well and start learning how to integrate our own drafted talent to the big team to relieve the cap strain or we will go through it year after year. Not to mention getting younger as a team.

I agree Patrick will be LTIR'd or waived or given a conditioning stint.

I'm thinking Martinez is the one to go because they were able to re-sign McNabb, and Hutton and Hague looked good with Pietrangelo. Plus they didn't want to pay him 5M to begin with.

All this talk from Foley about roster turnover & loss of leadership makes me think they'll want to bring back Smith & keep most of their forwards. Although Martinez isn't exactly expendable, the D have of leadership and depth.

 

[RapidKnight]

VGK Powerplay

	PP%	GF/60	SH%	CF/60	xGF/60
Gallant	14th	16th	14th	9th	13th
Gallant	19th	18th	25th	1st	4th
DeBoer	21st	21st	28th	9th	7th

(w/ Pacioretty)
The Knights don’t finish their opportunities on the powerplay. They had that problem with two different coachs so the players aren’t completely innocent. The coaches should know better than to continue funneling shots through Pacioretty and Marchessault though. Coincidence or not the problems started when Pacioretty joined and Perron left. Just don’t be surprised if a coaching change doesn’t fix our powerplay.
Hypothetically if Pacioretty left his linemates (who are more efficient shooters) would take more quality chances himself and the line would still be successful.

 

[hangman005]

An idea to possibly would help with leadership in the room would and I guess depending on the willingness of all parties would be to bring in Engo as an AC, I wouldn't mind trying to develop him as a coach.

 

[RapidKnight]

I hope the Knights target Kubalík. He’s a better natural goal scorer than anyone on our roster which would really help our powerplay. He’d be a perfect fit for Eichel chemistry wise. He also thrived good two-way players like Saad, Toews, and Kampf and we have plenty of those.
Kubalík doesn’t fit Chicago’s contending window and might need a change of scenery. Chicago has also shown willingness to take on contacts in the past.
To Vegas: Kubalík
To Chicago: Dadonov, Brossoit, Coghlan

 

[The Duck Knight]

I hope the Knights target Kubalík. He’s a better natural goal scorer than anyone on our roster which would really help our powerplay. He’d be a perfect fit for Eichel chemistry wise. He also thrived good two-way players like Saad, Toews, and Kampf and we have plenty of those.
Kubalík doesn’t fit Chicago’s contending window and might need a change of scenery. Chicago has also shown willingness to take on contacts in the past.
To Vegas: Kubalík
To Chicago: Dadonov, Brossoit, Coghlan

What? He's got 32 goals in his last 130 games. He's indisputably not a better goal scorer than Pacioretty, Eichel and Marchessault.

That's not to say he wouldn't be a reclamation project depending on what he's looking for contract wise.

 

[Vegan Knight]

I agree Patrick will be LTIR'd or waived or given a conditioning stint.

I'm thinking Martinez is the one to go because they were able to re-sign McNabb, and Hutton and Hague looked good with Pietrangelo. Plus they didn't want to pay him 5M to begin with.

All this talk from Foley about roster turnover & loss of leadership makes me think they'll want to bring back Smith & keep most of their forwards. Although Martinez isn't exactly expendable, the D have of leadership and depth.

I could see them going to Martinez and asking him if he'd like to go to Detroit and play his final years in front of his hometown. And I could see him saying yes and we could get a 2nd/3rd for him.

Something where we get an asset and Martinez is actually happy to go to, so it doesn't cause any stir among the players staying.

 

[CupInSIX]

Lehner seems less likely to me now that Deboer is gone. Lehner/Thompson at 5.767 total seems like an almost perfect goalie situation. But it's still possible as he has positive value and there are some cheaper 1B options available.

Martinez seems like a big locker room loss when they've had locker room losses for like three seasons in a row.

Brossoit and Dadonov seem for sure gone, whether trade or buyout. Coghlan and a pick (hopefully a third) probably sent with one as a sweetener.
I think Patrick leaves also or is on LTIR or waived.
And as counterproductive to scoring more goals as it sounds, Pacioretty. Last year, won't require anything added, injured often and older.

Smith and the RFAs return and Kuzmenko brought in if they give him enough bonuses, and some physical fourth line forward.

Fill any other needs with our own youth.
Brisson, Morozov, Cormier, Chayka, Dugan, Patera are possible to see NHL debuts during the season.
Any of Leschyshyn, Rondbjerg, Dorofeyev, Miromanov, Korczak can possibly get a handful of games.

They need to have an eye to the season after next as well and start learning how to integrate our own drafted talent to the big team to relieve the cap strain or we will go through it year after year. Not to mention getting younger as a team.

Plus I wouldn't be shocked if they bought out Lehner. If they expect to be in the top 3 in the Pacific, Thompson will have to play 40+ games. Especially if Lehner continues breaking down physically.

 

[RapidKnight]

What? He's got 32 goals in his last 130 games. He's indisputably not a better goal scorer than Pacioretty, Eichel and Marchessault.

That's not to say he wouldn't be a reclamation project depending on what he's looking for contract wise.

All I meant by natural goal scorer is his shot is better. Kubalik is more efficient. Pacioretty and Marchessault take an overwhelming amount of shots that’s why they score more goals. And their SH% declines on the PP which indicates they have weaker one timers. Kubalik would be more likely to finish a cross ice pass that’s why he’s the better natural goal scorer.

The question is whether Pacioretty and Marchessault are generating more shots or their linemates set them up more. Even if the former is more true it’s not a recipe for success on the powerplay or late in the game when possession is critical.

 

[CupInSIX]

VGK Powerplay

	PP%	GF/60	SH%	CF/60	xGF/60
Gallant	14th	16th	14th	9th	13th
Gallant	19th	18th	25th	1st	4th
DeBoer	21st	21st	28th	9th	7th

(w/ Pacioretty)
The Knights don’t finish their opportunities on the powerplay. They had that problem with two different coachs so the players aren’t completely innocent. The coaches should know better than to continue funneling shots through Pacioretty and Marchessault though. Coincidence or not the problems started when Pacioretty joined and Perron left. Just don’t be surprised if a coaching change doesn’t fix our powerplay.
Hypothetically if Pacioretty left his linemates (who are more efficient shooters) would take more quality chances himself and the line would still be successful.

Hence the need for someone competent to draw up a good PP and make in game adjustments. Better puck movement will lead to more quality chances. Adding guys like Janmark & Dadonov because they have good hands in tight and expecting good results hasn't changed much.

I don't know how anyone could watch that Dallas series where they were more than happy to give Vegas an open lane to the net - because they knew they wouldn't go to the blue paint - and be satisfied with the coaching.

Anyway they made a significant addition to the PP in Eichel and his shot & creativity gave it some good looks before his thumb was broken.

Pacioretty has only reached 10 PPGs once, and Marchessault has never scored more than 6. If you want more of a sure thing, you target a guy like Olofsson or even Kessel on a dirt cheap contract.

 

[RapidKnight]

Hence the need for someone competent to draw up a good PP and make in game adjustments. Better puck movement will lead to more quality chances. Adding guys like Janmark & Dadonov because they have good hands in tight and expecting good results hasn't changed much.

I don't know how anyone could watch that Dallas series where they were more than happy to give Vegas an open lane to the net - because they knew they wouldn't go to the blue paint - and be satisfied with the coaching.

Anyway they made a significant addition to the PP in Eichel and his shot & creativity gave it some good looks before his thumb was broken.

I agree that Eichel is a significant addition. He was hanging on to the puck too long after his injury which is understandable but shouldn’t be an issue moving forward.
My concern is what lefty(s) is he going to pass to if he plays his normal position. Pacioretty is not an efficient shooter, he’s basically the leagues most frequent shooter. No offense to either Karlsson, Stephenson, or Smith but their one timers aren’t their strong suits, the net basically has to be open.
Dadonov is the best option and he should have had Pacioretty’s role during the season but he will likely be traded.
I think a best case scenario with our current group is we return to an average powerplay.

As far as your middle part yes that’s a problem but wrist shots don’t cut it on the powerplay. Goalies want a wrist shot not a cross ice pass. Eichel will keep the defenders honest though.

 

[Vegan Knight]

Plus I wouldn't be shocked if they bought out Lehner. If they expect to be in the top 3 in the Pacific, Thompson will have to play 40+ games. Especially if Lehner continues breaking down physically.

I don't think there's a chance they buy him out. They would probably rather retain 1, maybe up to 1.5 on Lehner rather than buy him out. Those last four years would be miserable.

And I don't think they remotely need to because he still has value around the league, especially if they did retain 1 million we'd probably get something for him.

13 bad games because he played injured isn't going to make GMs forget about six seasons before where he was a solid for all but one, including two solid playoff appearances. He wasn't even playing bad this season the 33 games before this injury he played through and he will only be 33 at the end of this deal.

 

[LadyStanley]

Brossoit can be a difficult contract to get rid of.

UNTIL HE'S HEALTHY, the team cannot buy him out. Also would be harder to trade.


If you trade/buyout both Lehner and Brossoit, that leaves Thompson as #1. Who's his back up? Patera? Then who is in net for Henderson?

 

[VEGASKING]

Lehner is not being bought out. That is just crazy talk. His contract is perfectly fine in both salary and length for what he brings and his age. Under a Trotz, Brossoit is probably fine as the back up and a short term injury replacement. Lehner would probably go back to a .920 goalie under him and the position is back to being a strength but the team will probably need that extra million or two savings by trading him and having a cheaper back up.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

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I'm not seeing anything here I'd be confident in signing if both guys were traded. Kuemper is the only guy I'd consider at all but I don't see any savings there. Just before posting I noticed Oettinger in there. He hit the jackpot on timing that playoff performance. Can't imagine Dallas lets him go though with their goalie situation. Would be an interesting signing though as he's even younger than Thompson.

 

[RapidKnight]

Would burying Brossoit in the AHL have any cap savings? Maybe Detroit or Chicago would take on his contract with a late pick. The yearly backup carrousel is always busy.

If Thompson turns out to be a stud then the Knights should explore trading Lehner when his value is higher. Right now Thompson is still unproven and Lehner is a good goalie on a fair contract.

 

[The Duck Knight]

Would burying Brossoit in the AHL have any cap savings? Maybe Detroit or Chicago would take on his contract with a late pick. The yearly backup carrousel is always busy.

If Thompson turns out to be a stud then the Knights should explore trading Lehner when his value is higher. Right now Thompson is still unproven and Lehner is a good goalie on a fair contract.

Brossoit won't be hard to move at all. He's cheap enough and only has 1 year left. Chicago, Buffalo, and Arizona will all be prime candidates to take him. Buried in the AHL would only save 1m.

The only reason I'd think of moving Lehner is the same as Pacioretty, injuries. If he had proven he could stay healthy it wouldn't even be a consideration for me, but we're going to have enough to worry about on the injury front with Stone going forward that we can't use valuable cap on guys that can't at least be counted on to be healthy.

 

[CupInSIX]

I don't think there's a chance they buy him out. They would probably rather retain 1, maybe up to 1.5 on Lehner rather than buy him out. Those last four years would be miserable.

And I don't think they remotely need to because he still has value around the league, especially if they did retain 1 million we'd probably get something for him.

13 bad games because he played injured isn't going to make GMs forget about six seasons before where he was a solid for all but one, including two solid playoff appearances. He wasn't even playing bad this season the 33 games before this injury he played through and he will only be 33 at the end of this deal.

If the cap continues to go up, even every other year, the buyout hits would be preferable to ownership & their circle of cap mages than retaining 1.5m over the next 3 seasons.

 

[Vegan Knight]

If the cap continues to go up, even every other year, the buyout hits would be preferable to ownership & their circle of cap mages than retaining 1.5m over the next 3 seasons.

But it would only save 1.11m this season and like 611k next season before costing us 939k more the next season and then three more years of 1.89m. And that's over retaining 1.5m, which I don't think they'll do either and don't think they'll have to.

But Lehner at 3.5 would probably get us an actual decently nice piece back, whereas buyout gets us nothing and more money owed for a longer time.

There's a market for him, so I'm not sure why we would ever just buy him out. That's something you do when you have no other options and that isn't the case with Lehner, other teams out there will want him.

Plus, Thompson's 767k for three years fits great if they retain on Lehner. You just look at it as your 1a/1b getting 2.267m over those three years and pick up another goalie making similar.

But honestly, they can trade Lehner with no retention and shouldn't have an issue doing so. Plenty of teams need a goaltender and would give it a shot at no asset cost. His numbers before injury were the same as Varlamov, and he's four years younger. People talk about Varlamov being a worthwhile acquisition, there are multiple NHL GMs that will see Lehner as a better one.

And even if they were somehow forced to retain 1m, that would be only 611k more this season and 111k next season more than a buyout before the four years of pain (1.489m over then the three years of 1.89m).

A buyout of Lehner is just not at all on the table, in my opinion.

 

[CupInSIX]

But it would only save 1.11m this season and like 611k next season before costing us 939k more the next season and then three more years of 1.89m. And that's over retaining 1.5m, which I don't think they'll do either and don't think they'll have to.

But Lehner at 3.5 would probably get us an actual decently nice piece back, whereas buyout gets us nothing and more money owed for a longer time.

There's a market for him, so I'm not sure why we would ever just buy him out. That's something you do when you have no other options and that isn't the case with Lehner, other teams out there will want him.

Plus, Thompson's 767k for three years fits great if they retain on Lehner. You just look at it as your 1a/1b getting 2.267m over those three years and pick up another goalie making similar.

But honestly, they can trade Lehner with no retention and shouldn't have an issue doing so. Plenty of teams need a goaltender and would give it a shot at no asset cost. His numbers before injury were the same as Varlamov, and he's four years younger. People talk about Varlamov being a worthwhile acquisition, there are multiple NHL GMs that will see Lehner as a better one.

And even if they were somehow forced to retain 1m, that would be only 611k more this season and 111k next season more than a buyout before the four years of pain (1.489m over then the three years of 1.89m).

A buyout of Lehner is just not at all on the table, in my opinion.

Even 1m is a big deal for them right now.


I think his value is negative right now after how well it was documented that he was playing through 2 injuries. I don't see a GM taking a risk on 3 years of a goaltender that's possibly breaking down after what we've seen with guys like Price & Bishop. MAF will hit UFA and only cost 3-4M for 1 year, Campbell is expected to hit free agency, then there's guys like Husso. A team would probably take a flier on Koskinen as a UFA over paying an asset for Lehner, and that's assuming the team isn't on his no-trade.

It was reported he was on the block last offseason and there were no takers.

 

[Vegan Knight]

I think his value is negative right now after how well it was documented that he was playing through 2 injuries. I don't see a GM taking a risk on 3 years of a goaltender that's possibly breaking down after what we've seen with guys like Price & Bishop. MAF will hit UFA and only cost 3-4M for 1 year, Campbell is expected to hit free agency, then there's guys like Husso. A team would probably take a flier on Koskinen as a UFA over paying an asset for Lehner, and that's assuming the team isn't on his no-trade.

It was reported he was on the block last offseason and there were no takers.

I remember that New Jersey was very interested in him and Detroit had interest before the Nedeljkovic thing popped up.

Fleury will be turning 38 a month into the season and played worse than Lehner this season even taking the injury games in account despite playing behind better defense analytically. Then he was nothing special at all in the playoffs.

Lehner is still only turning 31 in like two or three months, he will be as old as Fleury was our first year in his last year. The injury this season will stop us getting any value but it doesn't give him negative value.

On top of that, Vegas doesn't need to trade him. Getting him healthy, away from Deboer, only playing around 40-45 games with Thompson and behind better defensive play in front of him should bring him back to better numbers which would make him even easier to trade after this season, if Thompson keeps up his play. Even this difficult season Lehner was hanging around the top ten in GSAx for his first twenty-five starts.

 

[IceNeophyte]

Lehner is not being bought out. That is just crazy talk. His contract is perfectly fine in both salary and length for what he brings and his age. Under a Trotz, Brossoit is probably fine as the back up and a short term injury replacement. Lehner would probably go back to a .920 goalie under him and the position is back to being a strength but the team will probably need that extra million or two savings by trading him and having a cheaper back up.

Thank You - CapFriendly - NHL Salary Caps

Thank you for the amazing 9 years

www.capfriendly.com

I'm not seeing anything here I'd be confident in signing if both guys were traded. Kuemper is the only guy I'd consider at all but I don't see any savings there. Just before posting I noticed Oettinger in there. He hit the jackpot on timing that playoff performance. Can't imagine Dallas lets him go though with their goalie situation. Would be an interesting signing though as he's even younger than Thompson.

So you're saying Trotz has the magic formula to allow Lehner to move across the crease, hop back up when he flops himself out of position, and stay alert and focused when the puck enters his zone?

That's amazing coaching.

 

[RapidKnight]

If we bought out/traded Lehner we basically take an automatic L with long term consequences in either assets or cap space. If we don’t we have a good chance to come out unscathed. Imo it seems like a no brainer to keep Lehner.

 

[RapidKnight]

So you're saying Trotz has the magic formula to allow Lehner to move across the crease, hop back up when he flops himself out of position, and stay alert and focused when the puck enters his zone?

That's amazing coaching.

The magic formula is giving Lehner a swim membership so he does less swimming in the crease and more swimming outside the premise of T-Mobile.

 

[CupInSIX]

I remember that New Jersey was very interested in him and Detroit had interest before the Nedeljkovic thing popped up.

Fleury will be turning 38 a month into the season and played worse than Lehner this season even taking the injury games in account despite playing behind better defense analytically. Then he was nothing special at all in the playoffs.

Lehner is still only turning 31 in like two or three months, he will be as old as Fleury was our first year in his last year. The injury this season will stop us getting any value but it doesn't give him negative value.

On top of that, Vegas doesn't need to trade him. Getting him healthy, away from Deboer, only playing around 40-45 games with Thompson and behind better defensive play in front of him should bring him back to better numbers which would make him even easier to trade after this season, if Thompson keeps up his play. Even this difficult season Lehner was hanging around the top ten in GSAx for his first twenty-five starts.

New Jersey is only interested in selling high on Blackwood and taking some cap dumps with their extra cap space. I highly doubt they would give up an asset for Lehner or even take him for free.

At 3.5M for free? Maybe, but at that point it's just better to buy out his contract if he can pass a physical by the buyout window.

Going into next season with Thompson & Lehner is incredibly risky given all their moves for supposed 'depth' the past few seasons. At the very least they should add a 3rd goalie at league minimum, but then that's still eating away at cap space (unless they do the AHL yoyo thing with Thompson, which doesn't sound like such a good idea).

 

[hangman005]

The magic formula is giving Lehner a swim membership so he does less swimming in the crease and more swimming outside the premise of T-Mobile.

I was thinking, I know he has had some weight issues, but instead of losing it, we could make him so large the puck has no chance of getting through. I certainly have a lot of fat to donate to that cause

 

[rt]

Forgive the intrusion, but the latest offer-sheet compensation tiers were just unveiled, and it got me thinking about Arizona and Vegas. Specifically about Nic Hague.

Minnesota was recently left with no choice but to deal big Jack McBain, as we was set to use his incoming College FA status to walk. They ended up dealing him to Arizona for a mid-2nd round pick. He's an older prospect that stepped right into the NHL.

Nathan Smith put Winnipeg in a similar spot. Arizona swooped in and took him off their hands, along with a Bryan Little dump. Again, the value works out to about a 2nd rounder, or so. Again, Smith is a bigger, older prospect, who was NHL ready right-away.

Both were situations where Arizona took advantage of unique contract situations to obtain big, young players, and gave up around a 2nd in value for them.

Enter Nic Hague and the new offer-sheet compensation tiers. 2.2aav to 4.2 aav is a 2nd. Arizona's 2023 2nd is very likely to be 33rd to 38th overall. Jakob Chychrun has requested a trade, and Arizona's defensive prospect pool is very, very thin. They're likely to deal Chychrun for "futures", and I believe the could really use Nic Hague, and would be very happy to add him for an early 2nd.

Say Arizona offered-sheeted him at 3yrs, 10mil, 3.33aav - do you think Vegas would match? Or just happily take the 2nd and move-on?

Again, sorry to bother. Just thought it was an interesting idea, and wanted to get the home-town take.