Seravalli: Official JT Miller Trade Thread - NEW Update (1/25/22) - Rangers Interest "Next Level"

[Foppberg]

I bet Sakic shops Sam Girard well before Newhook for a top 6 winger, as I see Byram taking Girards spot next year. He's already just as good and he's got more size. Avs are loaded on D, they could deal Girard and not be much worse without him.

I can't see Sakic dealing Girard with Byram's health in limbo like it is. If the health concern wasn't there I'd agree.

 

[canucksfan100]

I highly doubt the Canucks take multiple picks/1st

 

[John Mandalorian]

Baron, Olausson, 2023 1st for Miller 50% is reasonable on both sides.

No.

 

[cneely]

If the canucks retain 50% they should get one of the biggest one player hauls in history. When has a PPG 1C been traded? let alone one signed for 18 months at his deal.

Miller has one season in his 10 where he was above a PPG.

 

[Avs44]

Colorado should be in on this, they haven't made up for the loss of Saad last year. Miller is a big upgrade on him. This would allow them to re-unite the Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen line.

Nucks would likely ask for Newhook though.

I sometimes wonder where these narratives come from. "Re-unite" Landy/MacK/Rants...? They've not been separated in the first place...they're playing every game together as we speak right now. That was the top line last night against Anaheim, for instance. They're the top line again tonight against the Kings. The second line currently features a guy who is (somehow ) fifth in the league in points and fourth in PPG (Kadri), and Burakovsky is on his wing with 32 points in 35 games. Nuke, when healthy, has been awfully productive as well this year.

Of course the Avs could use Miller. Everyone could. But you're making out that the Avs are badly missing Saad to the point they had to supposedly break up the top line to spread scoring out. The club has four forwards all well above PPG (Landy/Mack/Kadri/Rants), two defensemen above PPG (Makar/Toews, although Toews won't keep it up obviously), and some strong depth scoring behind it all. The Avs comfortably lead the league averaging 4.19 goals per game. That might drop off as the season goes along (I expect it will), but scoring has been the Avs' biggest strength this year.

So yeah...I fully expect the Avs will be linked to all the big name forwards available, and everyone could always use more scoring depth (which is why I think there's a decent chance this year that Sakic actually adds someone), but the Avs, along with Florida and Tampa, are amongst the least-desperate teams in the league for high-end forward talent right now.

The more pressing needs would be a strong defensive centre, a second pairing defenseman (since Byram is likely done for the year), and either a goalie upgrade or goalie depth.

It's also why I remain pretty comfortable in thinking that Sakic -- based on his cautious history, lack of desperation for scoring talent, Newhook's active productivity in the lineup, and the Avs' desperate need for ELC's and guys under long term cost-control -- won't be moving Newhook, even though that likely takes the Avs out of the Miller sweepstakes.

I bet Sakic shops Sam Girard well before Newhook for a top 6 winger, as I see Byram taking Girards spot next year. He's already just as good and he's got more size. Avs are loaded on D, they could deal Girard and not be much worse without him.

Edit: I just saw this. I think you're really off here. Byram's long-term future is very much uncertain and in jeopardy right now. Have you seen the news on him...? With EJ having fallen off hard, the Avs' second pairing on a nightly basis right now is Jack Johnson - Sam Girard, with EJ and Ryan Murray cycling into that spot beside Girard. The Avs' 4/5/6 guys are JJ/EJ/Murray, and they pretty much all average bottom pairing minutes. Sometimes MacDermid has slotted in on defense which is uh, less than ideal. The Avs have some defense prospects coming along, but with Byram's serious injury depth on defense is actually a problem right now. They certainly can't move Girard at this moment for a winger.

 

[dbaz]

you're assuming rather than listening to your fellow posters. If you read anything of what other fanbases have said, overwhelming majority have stated guys like Schneider/Newhook weren't available and were non starters for trade talks for Eichel IRL and here. So with that in mind sure we'd want those guys and are willing to retain on Miller to get them, but its a want and hope that other fanbases want no part of. They have also said if thats the price on Miller at 50%, they'd rather no ret on Miller.

For any discussion (thats not just a no we arent doing that well then no you're not getting Miller) will have to be without those pieces. So we'd have to look at what we want without those pieces for Miller at 50% and Miller at full cap hit since the other fanbases would rather that.

starting point of where I'd consider a trade for Miller at 50%:
Avs is Barron + 2023 1st + Helleson + Foudy.
NYR is Lundqvist + 2022 1st + 2023 1st

Miller at full salary:
Avs is Compher + Barron + 2023 1st + small add
NYR its Lindgren + Lundqvist + choice of 2022 or 2023 1st + small add

im sorry your thought process doesnt make sense. and if you are going to lecture me for mentioning it should be a 2peice or 3 piece deal depending on the prospect coming back or the retention then look at your own flawed logic

"youre assuming, listen to what others want to offer" (in regards to a 2 piece or 3 piece trade depending on retaining/prospect) then proposes trades with 4 peices coming back to the canucks. why didnt you listen to the guy who said lundqvist and a 1st for 50% retained or the guy who said barron and a 1st for 50% retained?

"they didnt want to offer them for eichel" a player going under surgery performed for the 1st time on an nhl player, that was seen as potentially career ending if any complications. oh and expecting a team to take on 10m for the next 4 years. then assuming the same would be available for a ppg player who is better defensively and could be had at about 2.5mil. okay.

also with tdl trades, dont look at offseason trades. they are a different beast as gms are stupid and desperate for the final piece and often overpay. they are only seen as bad when they dont work out. so some times it pays off for them (tbl), sometimes it doesnt (shattenkirk to wash), vegas (tatar. 1st, 2nd , 3rd. ouch) etc

the simple fact is could i see a player like newhook/perfetti/kaapo/laf being traded? yes.
do i expect one of those and 2 firsts? no. but if a team like colorado thinks miller is the piece that gets them there then there is the chance of newhook and a conditional 1st(cup win) as a 2 piece deal.

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

The Canucks should retain 50% (they aren't winning this year or next) and just get a boatload of futures from the highest bidder.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Well, retaining a few hundred thousand at last season's trade deadline was worth a 4th round pick for two different clubs so $3M+ over 2 seasons should be worth significantly more. Keep in mind, this is actual cash as well, not just cap hit. Owners are going to want compensation for them paying players to play against their team.

On the flip side, the Leafs only paid a 3rd round pick for Rittich + $1.375M retention. The Pens only paid a conditional 3rd and conditional 4th the following year for Jeff Carter + $2.6M cap ($1M salary/year) for 2 years.

Like I said, it has value but I disagree that the value is as much as some are indicating. That's fine though, not a big deal, just and interesting discussion.

 

[cneely]

JT Miller is eighth in scoring among all NHL centres over the past three season.

You're embarrassing yourself.

Whoa...
What you're saying isn't false, but let's provide some context. He has played:

19 more games than Barkov (8 more points)
31 more games than Stamkos (13 more points)
39 more games than Crosby (22 more points)

And I certainly would not rate him better than Bergeron, Tavares, Point, Kopitar, Backstrom...

He's a good player. He's definitely not the 8th best center (not saying you are saying that, but people may read that). He's a 28 year old mid tier first liner.

 

[Peter Griffin]

On the flip side, the Leafs only paid a 3rd round pick for Rittich + $1.375M retention. The Pens only paid a conditional 3rd and conditional 4th the following year for Jeff Carter + $2.6M cap ($1M salary/year) for 2 years.

The Rittich trade was another deadline deal where that salary retention amounted to a few hundred grand. You make that move 10 times out of 10 to get something in return for David Rittich. The Carter deal is a weird one in that for some reason LA wanted to move Carter and I remember reading he was threatening to retire if he was moved. That might've simply been a case where they found somewhere he wanted to go and just made it happen.

Like I said, it has value but I disagree that the value is as much as some are indicating. That's fine though, not a big deal, just and interesting discussion.

I think where we differ on this is that IMO, a guy like Miller, shouldn't need retention. You don't retain on a PPG player that is already underpaid. That contract has value alone. If teams can't afford to add Miller, let them figure it out, or let them compensate you so they can add a player such as Miller. Because they sure as heck aren't going to find a much better cap hit to production player that Miller at $2.6M.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

.
I think where we differ on this is that IMO, a guy like Miller, shouldn't need retention. You don't retain on a PPG player that is already underpaid. That contract has value alone.

If we accept that premise, then that furthers my point.

Either:
a) Vancouver won't retain (like another poster said is most realistic).
b) If Vancouver demands a HUGE payment for retention because it shouldn't be needed, teams will make it work another way as they won't pay a huge sum for $2.6M retention or can easily find another way to free up $2.6M.

So I disagree with those saying "retain 50% and get a massive return". If they retain, it will certainly add some value, but it won't be massive IMO. I can't see anybody giving up a good prospect or a 1st/2nd round pick for $2.6M retention. A 3rd or 4th? Sure, or an upgrade from 1 prospect to a slightly higher rated one? Sure, but I don't consider either of those a massive return. Maybe it's just semantics.

EDIT: and to note, with player escrow at 20% (or whatever it's at), will it really even be $2.6M in real dollars?

 

[GoLeafsGo96]

If we accept that premise, then that furthers my point.

Either:
a) Vancouver won't retain (like another poster said is most realistic).
b) If Vancouver demands a HUGE payment for retention because it shouldn't be needed, teams will make it work another way as they won't pay a huge sum for $2.6M retention or can easily find another way to free up $2.6M.

So I disagree with those saying "retain 50% and get a massive return". If they retain, it will certainly add some value, but it won't be massive IMO. I can't see anybody giving up a good prospect or a 1st/2nd round pick for $2.6M retention. A 3rd or 4th? Sure, or an upgrade from 1 prospect to a slightly higher rated one? Sure, but I don't consider either of those a massive return. Maybe it's just semantics.

EDIT: and to note, with player escrow at 20% (or whatever it's at), will it really even be $2.6M in real dollars?

I wonder if anyone would ever broach a 3rd team to retain the 50% instead if the Canucks ask for the moon. We've seen double retention with players at the deadline, so it doesn't feel all that impossible to get there. Arizona has used 2/3 retention slots but just as an example, if the Canucks are asking for an additional 1st for the 50% retention, and Arizona says they'll do it for a 2nd... or some other team/situation.

 

[PatriceBergeronFan]

Would the Bruins entertain:

1st 2022
Fabian Lysell
Urho Vaakanainen

for

Miller (50% retained)

Lysell is untouchable and likely the only one. Would have to hope Vancouver really likes a Lohrei type prospect with the 1st.

 

[kanucks25]

If we accept that premise, then that furthers my point.

Either:
a) Vancouver won't retain (like another poster said is most realistic).
b) If Vancouver demands a HUGE payment for retention because it shouldn't be needed, teams will make it work another way as they won't pay a huge sum for $2.6M retention or can easily find another way to free up $2.6M.

So I disagree with those saying "retain 50% and get a massive return". If they retain, it will certainly add some value, but it won't be massive IMO. I can't see anybody giving up a good prospect or a 1st/2nd round pick for $2.6M retention. A 3rd or 4th? Sure, or an upgrade from 1 prospect to a slightly higher rated one? Sure, but I don't consider either of those a massive return. Maybe it's just semantics.

EDIT: and to note, with player escrow at 20% (or whatever it's at), will it really even be $2.6M in real dollars?

I think if you're a team paying for JT Miller at this deadline you're essentially going all in to win, so it doesn't really make sense to skimp on a 2nd rounder or something because you don't want to pay for retention. Miller at 2.625M is incredible value even if you aren't as high on the player as some Canucks fans seem to be in these threads.

I don't agree that it's all that easy in the current climate to free up 2.6M via another method. No team is taking on dead cap without you paying the appropriate price.

 

[Peter Griffin]

If we accept that premise, then that furthers my point.

Either:
a) Vancouver won't retain (like another poster said is most realistic).
b) If Vancouver demands a HUGE payment for retention because it shouldn't be needed, teams will make it work another way as they won't pay a huge sum for $2.6M retention or can easily find another way to free up $2.6M.

So I disagree with those saying "retain 50% and get a massive return". If they retain, it will certainly add some value, but it won't be massive IMO. I can't see anybody giving up a good prospect or a 1st/2nd round pick for $2.6M retention. A 3rd or 4th? Sure, or an upgrade from 1 prospect to a slightly higher rated one? Sure, but I don't consider either of those a massive return. Maybe it's just semantics.

EDIT: and to note, with player escrow at 20% (or whatever it's at), will it really even be $2.6M in real dollars?

I can agree with that, I don’t think Vancouver will end up retaining much on Miller if at all.

 

[Muffin]

Colorado should be in on this, they haven't made up for the loss of Saad last year. Miller is a big upgrade on him. This would allow them to re-unite the Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen line.

Nucks would likely ask for Newhook though.

Colorado is the highest scoring team in the league, somehow I don’t think they’re missing Saad. They need a top 4 defenseman more right now with the injury to Byram and Murray.

 

[McJedi]

I can't see Sakic dealing Girard with Byram's health in limbo like it is. If the health concern wasn't there I'd agree.

Why would the Avs trade defense for more offense?

They are the highest scoring team in the NHL. They aren’t shopping for more goals. They score plenty of those.

They need to shop for a better PK. Start with a replacement for Jack Johnson, who sucks at PK. Way too slow.

several other teams need JT Miller more than the Avs do. If he comes cheap, Sakic should pounce but it sure sounds like Vancouver will have more motivated buyers.

 

[Canuck Luck]

im sorry your thought process doesnt make sense. and if you are going to lecture me for mentioning it should be a 2peice or 3 piece deal depending on the prospect coming back or the retention then look at your own flawed logic

"youre assuming, listen to what others want to offer" (in regards to a 2 piece or 3 piece trade depending on retaining/prospect) then proposes trades with 4 peices coming back to the canucks. why didnt you listen to the guy who said lundqvist and a 1st for 50% retained or the guy who said barron and a 1st for 50% retained?

"they didnt want to offer them for eichel" a player going under surgery performed for the 1st time on an nhl player, that was seen as potentially career ending if any complications. oh and expecting a team to take on 10m for the next 4 years. then assuming the same would be available for a ppg player who is better defensively and could be had at about 2.5mil. okay.

also with tdl trades, dont look at offseason trades. they are a different beast as gms are stupid and desperate for the final piece and often overpay. they are only seen as bad when they dont work out. so some times it pays off for them (tbl), sometimes it doesnt (shattenkirk to wash), vegas (tatar. 1st, 2nd , 3rd. ouch) etc

the simple fact is could i see a player like newhook/perfetti/kaapo/laf being traded? yes.
do i expect one of those and 2 firsts? no. but if a team like colorado thinks miller is the piece that gets them there then there is the chance of newhook and a conditional 1st(cup win) as a 2 piece deal.

Ever hear the saying the devil is in the details? Sure when you paraphrase it down to you asked for 3 pieces whereas I'm asking for 4 it sounds like my ask is higher. When you actually look at the details where you're ask is 1 A+ piece and 2 A pieces meanwhile my 4 pieces consists of 2 A pieces and 2 B pieces, you see the value of 4 is significantly lower than the value of the 3. Your ask is basically like asking for 1 $100 and 2 $50 bills. My ask is 2 $50 bills and 2 $20 bills. Yet here you are saying I'm asking for more by asking for 4 bills while you're only asking for 3. Your 3 bills equate to $200, my 4 equal $140. If you disagree with that, why is it that every single Colorado poster has said no to your proposal, meanwhile my proposal has gotten a mix of thats an acceptable offer and no? Clearly my 4 pieces are valued less than the 3 you are asking for.

The reason I didn't listen to those offers you mentioned is using history as insight towards what can be reasonably discussed. JT Miller at 50% is only 825k more than Blake Coleman. Obviously at 825k more than Coleman the cost will be more than what Coleman returned by a significant margin. When the salary difference between the 2 players is more than double, the ask has to be lowered.

Yes theres risk on Eichel, yet he still returned that A+ level prospect because 1 team was willing to take the risk rather than buying high if he returns back like nothing ever happened. Its why the cost is low enough that adding a Schneider/Newhook instead of Lundqvist/Barron would have gotten a deal done. If Eichel didn't have the injury concern do you think NYR replacing Lundqvist or Colorado replacing Barron with Newhook gets them Eichel? No it wouldnt have. They would have to add a lot more than just swaping an A level prospect for an A+ level one. Think about what we would want for Pettersson pre slump and add more. Thats what Eichel would cost without the injury concern.

You're also half wrong on GMs overpaying at the TDL. While yes some overpays still happen, usually thats with the lower end pieces to round out the bottom half of the roster nowadays. The top pieces generally are fair value trades. When was the last time a GM overpaid for a high end player at the TDL?

Look I want and hope we get a Newhook/Schneider/Perfetti etc as much as any Canuck fan, but I also see theres no point in bringing their names up in discussions here. It just ends any discussion with the other fan bases. As soon as one of those names is brought up even if its 1 for 1, the answer from the other fan base is no. So if theres any discussion to be had with other fanbases, its not with those names. Think of them as Voldemort, if you're wanting to have any form of discussion for a JT Miller trade with these fan bases, those are names not to be spoken of.

 

[Phrasing]

If I'm the Canucks I'm not interested in picks, I'm interested in trading Miller to a team wanting to contend that is willing to give up a younger player that isn't quite a contributor yet but has high potential (ie nearly baked prospect or 1-2 year NHL player).

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Why would the Avs trade defense for more offense?

They are the highest scoring team in the NHL. They aren’t shopping for more goals. They score plenty of those.

They need to shop for a better PK. Start with a replacement for Jack Johnson, who sucks at PK. Way too slow.

several other teams need JT Miller more than the Avs do. If he comes cheap, Sakic should pounce but it sure sounds like Vancouver will have more motivated buyers.

Agreed. Maybe Murray rebounds and becomes a PK contributor. We could also maybe use a vet on the bottom six.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

I think if you're a team paying for JT Miller at this deadline you're essentially going all in to win, so it doesn't really make sense to skimp on a 2nd rounder or something because you don't want to pay for retention. Miller at 2.625M is incredible value even if you aren't as high on the player as some Canucks fans seem to be in these threads.

I don't agree that it's all that easy in the current climate to free up 2.6M via another method. No team is taking on dead cap without you paying the appropriate price.

Multiple teams did so last year with the price being a 3rd or 4th round pick (or less in the Carter case).

We'll just disagree which is fine. I don't think retention will boost the value as much as some think. Of course, we'll probably never know as once the deal is done, we won't know what was added or not for retention (unless a 3rd team is involve strictly for retention, but in that case, the return isn't to Van). I'll just leave it at that as it's been a fun and cordial discussion, but there's not much more to say from my end.

 

[sting101]

Makes a lot of sense for the Avs if they are not gonna re sign Kadri. You get to load up this year with both which would pretty much make you unstoppable then have a 3yrs younger player for the best contender years. Could see Halak as good insurance as well.

Saw the PK comments. Miller is the first guy over the boards for Van

 

[EP to Kuzmenko]

Agreed. Maybe Murray rebounds and becomes a PK contributor. We could also maybe use a vet on the bottom six.

Previous thread had the indication that he wants a Kadri replacement for next year to give Newhook another year to develop into the 2c role. He won't find a single player better than Miller to expire when Mackinnon does to give the cap they need.
He also wants to compete as best he can before Mack's contract expires and he gets a massive pay increase.

 

[GirardSpinorama]

Previous thread had the indication that he wants a Kadri replacement for next year to give Newhook another year to develop into the 2c role. He won't find a single player better than Miller to expire when Mackinnon does to give the cap they need.
He also wants to compete as best he can before Mack's contract expires and he gets a massive pay increase.

Ya but that came from Adrian dater and not Sakic himself.

 

[sting101]

Lysell is untouchable and likely the only one. Would have to hope Vancouver really likes a Lohrei type prospect with the 1st.

Not to be an ass but i have Giants tickets and watch him often i'm afraid you guys may have messed that pick especially with Johnson and Lambos on the board. I'm sure things can change as development is not linear but he looks miles from an effective NHLer. Still a good prospect with great wheels but i wouldn't have him in a blue chip category. He gets rubbed out by kids with regularity and loses way too many 1v1 battles and it's junior.

3rd round pick Justin Sourdif is a much better prospect at this time. The saving grace is he can really fly..hope it works out but after watching both players Klimovich is a better prospect and i dont see a ton of return value for the Canucks.

For the record i'm not trying to be backhanded at all and maybe others see it differently