Seravalli: Official JT Miller Trade Thread - NEW Update (1/25/22) - Rangers Interest "Next Level"

[Peter Griffin]

I love Mercer so that’s a deal I absolutely take

Yea that would be a no brainer for the Canucks. Mercer and Smith would be two big pieces to add to their re-tool. Can't see the Devils, who have a lower chance of making the playoffs than the Canucks, even considering that though.

 

[Fulham]

If the canucks retain 50% they should get one of the biggest one player hauls in history. When has a PPG 1C been traded? let alone one signed for 18 months at his deal.

 

[StickShift]

I can't imagine Bo Horvat is happy about this, he's in his prime years and would want to try to make a run at making the playoffs this year not build for the future.

There's reason to believe that Horvat could be made available too. He had a quote at the end of last season that he wanted to be on a playoff team and tired of missing the dance.

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Where? I thought we were talking about JT Miller?

Last 3 seasons:

2019-20	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	69	27	45	72	47	11	17	6	12	18	14
2020-21	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	53	15	31	46	43	-7	--	--	--	--	--
2021-22	Vancouver Canucks	NHL	39	12	27	39	23	1

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

He's a # 1 center that can also play either wing, at a cap of $5.25 per season. Arguably the most valuable piece available at the deadline.

 

[BruinsBtn]

Where? I thought we were talking about JT Miller?

JT Miller is eighth in scoring among all NHL centres over the past three season.

You're embarrassing yourself.

 

[wonton15]

Does this always happen? Other teams’ fans putting down extremely valuable assets?

It’s amazing the amount of disrespect Miller is getting. If you actually watched him the past 3 seasons, he’s a legitimate first line PPG forward, PPs, PKs, fights, hits, etc… he does it all, all at $5M. So much of the narrative is how he “used to be” and it shows that no one has actually watched him recently.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Theres also taking an overpaid roster player back. Salary retention is definitely not a must and will cost more since the ret is dead cap space. An overpaid roster player is a tradeable or useable piece. If Vegas can fit Eichel's 10M with no ret, teams can fit Miller's 5.25M with no ret

Well, taking back overpaid players is essentially the same as retention for the team sending the overpaid player back (from a cap point of view). Of course, it depends on how much term is left for the overpaid player.

We shall see though. Last year, significant retention was required for:

Carter to PIT
Foligno to TOR
Rittich to TOR
Noesen to TOR
Janmark to VGN (actually 2 teams involved to get higher than 50% retention)
Raffl to WSH
Savard to TBL (2 teams involved to get higher than 50% retention)


The only "big" names to be traded without retention:

Mantha (Caps sent Vrana and Panik back. Caps also had to move Siegenthaler in a separate deal).
Bennett (an RFA making just over $3M and Florida had plenty of space)
Hall (Boston had space).

I very well could be wrong, but my personal view is that retention won't add as much value as some think it will. It will add some, but when a lot of teams are going to require it (or require to send assets back or make other moves), it's not as valuable.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Does this always happen? Other teams’ fans putting down extremely valuable assets?

It’s amazing the amount of disrespect Miller is getting. If you actually watched him the past 3 seasons, he’s a legitimate first line PPG forward, PPs, PKs, fights, hits, etc… he does it all, all at $5M. So much of the narrative is how he “used to be” and it shows that no one actually watched him recently.

classic HFboards here. Majority talk down any piece thats available in a trade because if they are proven and so good the logic is then why are they being traded? Whereas any prospect with a shred of potential is of the upmost value. that 10% chance of being a star prospect is seen as a star value already. Any prospect at 50%+ chance of being a top line player is valued at their peaks because they are future 100 point cost controlled players. You have to be able to sift through the homers and generic posters that are like this to find the few from every fan base that arent.

 

[Eggtimer]

Yea that would be a no brainer for the Canucks. Mercer and Smith would be two big pieces to add to their re-tool. Can't see the Devils, who have a lower chance of making the playoffs than the Canucks, even considering that though.

They don’t unless they knew they could resign Miller long term . So it’s very very unlikely the Devils uses assets unless they knew for sure it was a long term piece. I doubt Miller would resign long term as he knows the Decils are crap right now but only hope is that he sees them as contenders in 2-3 years.
My only concern with trading Mercer , is that he becomes as productive as Miller . He plays the game the right way but I don’t think his ceiling is as high as what Miller is doing right now .
Mercer is one of my favourite Devils but I’m sick of watching scrubs get thrown out there with Jack and Nico . We have one legit winger - Bratt and no one that knows how to score on the PP

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

Salary retention is absolutely worth something, especially in Miller's case since he's signed thru next season. As for how it adds value to a trade, look no further than the David Savard trade last season. Tampa traded an additional 4th round pick to Detroit, simply so they'd retain 50% of the remainder of his contract for last season. Toronto did the same with Nick Foligno and San Jose. If a team wants Miller for this post-season and next, and they can't fit him to their cap structure, that's really not Vancouver's problem. I'm sure they'd be willing to retain for the right offer, but they aren't just going to do it so that one team can have him over another.

Yes, I agree it has some value, but some of the posts I've seen on here are indicating that the return will be massive if the Canuck's retain. If, for example, 8 of the 10 teams interested require retention, it won't be as valuable as some think. Just supply and demand. It will have some value, but not be massive IMO.

Of course, if 1 of the 2 teams that don't require retention make an offer that is as competitive as one of the other 8, then of course Van can either take that offer or try and get one of the other teams to up their offer with retention, but I just don't think it will be as high as some are making it out to be.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Colorado should be in on this, they haven't made up for the loss of Saad last year. Miller is a big upgrade on him. This would allow them to re-unite the Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen line.

Nucks would likely ask for Newhook though.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Delusional

The Rangers don't NEED JT Miller. You NEED draft picks and prospects to retool. Understand the difference

Bahahaha. We don’t need to trade Miller to you or at all, he’s 28
You’re the delusional one bud, you NEED someone of a JT Miller caliber player to win the cup. We don’t need futures from you thanks though

 

[BenningHurtsMySoul]

Colorado should be in on this, they haven't made up for the loss of Saad last year. Miller is a big upgrade on him. This would allow them to re-unite the Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen line.

Nucks would likely ask for Newhook though.

Colorado should be willing to give up someone like Newhook in exchange for less assets overall.

I'd do 1st 2022 (late) + Newhook for JT retained.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

Colorado should be willing to give up someone like Newhook in exchange for less assets overall.

I'd do 1st 2022 (late) + Newhook for JT retained.

Seeing how Colorado needs to win now, I would give up Newhook too. That would be a fair trade for both clubs. Doubt Sakic is willing to make the trade though, he plays it pretty safe for a GM.

 

[Canuck Luck]

Yes, I agree it has some value, but some of the posts I've seen on here are indicating that the return will be massive if the Canuck's retain. If, for example, 8 of the 10 teams interested require retention, it won't be as valuable as some think. Just supply and demand. It will have some value, but not be massive IMO.

Of course, if 1 of the 2 teams that don't require retention make an offer that is as competitive as one of the other 8, then of course Van can either take that offer or try and get one of the other teams to up their offer with retention, but I just don't think it will be as high as some are making it out to be.

The reason is because getting a 1st line player for 2.625M vs 5.25M is a huge difference. If we are talking realistic scenarios, its very likely Miller is traded with no retention. Our owner has a history of being cheap in the sense he is against spending money thats not on the NHL roster. He'll do it if there's no other possibility, but he wont be happy about it. Retention/buyouts is basically the worst thing you can ask of him in his books regardless the reason. The only thing that comes close to that is burying salary in the AHL. As you mentioned supply and demand. Miller is going to command a haul regardless. It would make no sense to retain on Miller if theres no premium paid vs taking a roster player like Compher/Demelo/Lindgren back instead.

 

[Canadian Canuck]

Colorado should be in on this, they haven't made up for the loss of Saad last year. Miller is a big upgrade on him. This would allow them to re-unite the Landeskog-MacKinnon-Rantanen line.

Nucks would likely ask for Newhook though.

Yes and rightfully so.

 

[Foppberg]

I would cream my pants if we got Miller. But I don't see Sakic paying what it would require (Newhook).

 

[Peter Griffin]

Yes, I agree it has some value, but some of the posts I've seen on here are indicating that the return will be massive if the Canuck's retain. If, for example, 8 of the 10 teams interested require retention, it won't be as valuable as some think. Just supply and demand. It will have some value, but not be massive IMO.

Of course, if 1 of the 2 teams that don't require retention make an offer that is as competitive as one of the other 8, then of course Van can either take that offer or try and get one of the other teams to up their offer with retention, but I just don't think it will be as high as some are making it out to be.

If Miller was being paid $10M or something ridiculous I would say retention would be absolutely necessary. But if teams can't fit Miller's prorated $5.25M salary in for the rest of this season some other way(dumping an expiring contract, LTIR) and require retention to make a trade, they shouldn't be interested or they should be willing to up the ante. Miller @ $2.6M for next season would be among the best values in the entire NHL, if Rutherford doesn't get appropriate value for that he shouldn't be GM.

As for what sort of compensation that would be, I would say anywhere from a 2nd to a 1st would be fair compensation for retaining 50% of Miller's contract for this season and next. The ideal

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

If Miller was being paid $10M or something ridiculous I would say retention would be absolutely necessary. But if teams can't fit Miller's prorated $5.25M salary in for the rest of this season some other way(dumping an expiring contract, LTIR) and require retention to make a trade, they shouldn't be interested. Miller @ $2.6M for next season would be among the best values in the entire NHL, if Rutherford doesn't get appropriate value for that he shouldn't be GM.

That's a fair opinion. I personally just don't think retaining $2.6M is as valuable as some are making it out to be. If you think so, that's fine, we just disagree.

 

[sandwichbird2023]

They don’t unless they knew they could resign Miller long term . So it’s very very unlikely the Devils uses assets unless they knew for sure it was a long term piece. I doubt Miller would resign long term as he knows the Decils are crap right now but only hope is that he sees them as contenders in 2-3 years.
My only concern with trading Mercer , is that he becomes as productive as Miller . He plays the game the right way but I don’t think his ceiling is as high as what Miller is doing right now .
Mercer is one of my favourite Devils but I’m sick of watching scrubs get thrown out there with Jack and Nico . We have one legit winger - Bratt and no one that knows how to score on the PP

I can see Miller signing long term there. NJ has a bright future with Hughes/Hischier/Bratt young and just entering their prime, Hamilton leading a decent D core. Just got to hope Blackwood establish himself as a legit starter that he is capable of, and the Devils should be competitive as soon as next season with the addition of Miller.
Another thing to consider is, although Miller might want to goto a team that is currently a cup contender, how many of those teams will have to cap space to fit him in with his new contract? Nearly all cup contenders has cap issues beyond next season, so his best bet is probably looking for a up-and-coming team instead of the current contenders like Vegas/Tampa/Boston.

 

[BCNate]

Colorado should be willing to give up someone like Newhook in exchange for less assets overall.

I'd do 1st 2022 (late) + Newhook for JT retained.

Av's next 1st is 2023, they traded this years to AZ.

 

[Boom Boom Apathy]

The reason is because getting a 1st line player for 2.625M vs 5.25M is a huge difference. If we are talking realistic scenarios, its very likely Miller is traded with no retention. Our owner has a history of being cheap in the sense he is against spending money thats not on the NHL roster. He'll do it if there's no other possibility, but he wont be happy about it. Retention/buyouts is basically the worst thing you can ask of him in his books regardless the reason. The only thing that comes close to that is burying salary in the AHL. As you mentioned supply and demand. Miller is going to command a haul regardless. It would make no sense to retain on Miller if theres no premium paid vs taking a roster player like Compher/Demelo/Lindgren back instead.

if that's the case, the people saying "retaining 50% will bring a massive return" are probably looking at an unrealistic scenario in the first place.

By the way, I DO think Miller is going to get a nice return for Vancouver. I won't debate what that return is as a lot of factors will go into it. I was more commenting on the retention aspect. I would have some value for sure, but if it happens, IMO, it won't be as high as many are implying. It's fine if you disagree.

 

[SeanMoneyHands]

I would cream my pants if we got Miller. But I don't see Sakic paying what it would require (Newhook).

I bet Sakic shops Sam Girard well before Newhook for a top 6 winger, as I see Byram taking Girards spot next year. He's already just as good and he's got more size. Avs are loaded on D, they could deal Girard and not be much worse without him.

 

[canucksfan100]

I'd say the return will be atleast a 1st, top prospect and a young roster player

 

[Peter Griffin]

That's a fair opinion. I personally just don't think retaining $2.6M is as valuable as some are making it out to be. If you think so, that's fine, we just disagree.

Well, retaining a few hundred thousand at last season's trade deadline was worth a 4th round pick for two different clubs so $3M+ over 2 seasons should be worth significantly more. Keep in mind, this is actual cash as well, not just cap hit. Owners are going to want compensation for them paying players to play against their team.