Random Forest
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- May 12, 2010
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Official 2024 NHL Draft Thread
- Thread starter landsbergfan
- Start date
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Eh, it depends on what the cost is.
Is Tij Iginla really that good? He seems to be having a meteoric rise.
I thought he's been in that 2nd tier group for a while. I think because of how close that 2nd tier is to each other than it starts to become preference/bias vs anything tangible. You also see this with other sports like football where due to connections and discussions teams might leak (either true or not) that they are hearing where kids are being slotted.
Then there is, what I call Kiper-effect, its someone who's various mocks usually have a lot of movement in names so that they can claim, yeah I had him going to so and so at #5 in my mock, because he's had everyone in the top 12 going #5 at some point.
Gregor Samsa
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I’d imagine it’s a bit rich to move into the top 10 from outside of it. Probably Florida’s 1st or 2025 Col 1st. If it’s anything less I’d think Buffalo would beat it if they liked him a lot too. I definitely wouldn’t do the Col pick. Never know if star players on a team are going to have an injury plagued year and struggle. I wouldn’t do the Florida pick either. I’d rather get another player on the same tier as Eiserman and add another 1st round talent to the pool
Chicken N Raffls
Here for the chaos and lolz
ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
If we're just trying to get ahead of Buffalo, that means Jersey, who seems to be in the mood to write off last year as a fluke. As much as I don't love the idea of trading with the Devils, they might be inclined to do 10 for 12 and a player who can help them now. Not sure what that deal looks like, but that's a possibility.
Ya, he's one of the easiest guys to watch this year.
I finished my review of players for the Flyers 12th pick. I did a long write up in a word doc. Naturally I assume most people don't feel like reading that much. So, I'm going to try to make this post a condensed version. If anyone is interested in the full review maybe I will post it in a new thread or something.
Before I list my rankings I want clarify the criteria behind the rankings. First and foremost this is specifically geared towards the Flyers and players I deem to have a chance to be available at 12. Second, in all my rankings I give more weight to difficult to improve skills than skills that have a high chance of improving through development. Skills I view as difficult to improve in order of importance/weight in my evaluation IQ, motor/compete, skating. Improvable skills vary in weight used based on the players overall play style. Third, in tandem with the first, the ranking is heavily influenced by projected roster construction. By that I mean the goal in drafting is to contruct a cup contending roster and that requires projecting a players potential impact in NHL playoff hockey as well as how a prospect's play style fits with other core player pieces(Michkov). To me the ideal complement to a player like Michkov both shares qualities with him, but also has an element of Ying to his yang. By that I mean the ideal addition needs to have some comparable offensive ability, but overall the prospects greatest strengths should be in areas that are consider weak points in Michkovs game. To put it in a more literal context the ideal compliment to Michkov is speedy 200 ft player with a Good enough IQ to consistently make the next pass and at least sometimes at least some goal scoring capability. Size doesn't normally factor into my evaluation, but I do think it would benefit Michkov to have it a player with decent size on his line.
Now, that this has been stated, I'll try to condense my rankings :
1. Tij Iginla:
Easiest to condense. Have you seen his dad play? Than you know how he plays. A couple weeks ago selecting him was super possible. Now? Maybe less likely. He stunted at the u18 WC. Center/power forward. High 3rd liner floor. Ceiling is his dad. Not personally a big "bloodline" guy, but top 10 talents with NHL dads have had a real solid track record lately(Matt and Brady Tkachuk, Will Nylander, Sam Reinhart, etc)
2. Michael Bransegg-Nygard
Some people may be puzzled by this. Craig button moved him down, I must be an idiot if I ranked him here, right? Ehhh, I'm not the brightest bulb, but I do go with my gut. Does he have the highest upside on paper? No. Does he have enough to justify being taken 12th? 100%. For one this kid has one of the highest floors in this draft. Good hockey IQ. Fantastic skater. Probably the best motor and compete level in the whole draft. He lines up on the wing, but I think his 200 ft playstyle, top tier skating, good IQ, good size, and Lethal shot would make a potentially elite center. He doesn't seem electric, but there is a subtle flash to his hands that makes me think there is a ankle breaking beast in him waiting to be unleashed. Motor is his best attribute. He has that dawg in him. He might be the best at controlling the puck through contact and winning puck battles with an added bonus that a lot of his tape shows him doing it against grown men already. My ultimate justification for ranking him here is this kid is made for playoff hockey and how amazing his game would compliment Michkov on the wing or at center. To be as effective as we hope Michkov needs to get the puck on his stick. Nygard ensures that happens a lot more. In terms of ceiling I think Mika Zibanejad is a great comp. Floor is tough to comp, but I guess prime Raffl. A 3rd line guy that plays the kind of hockey that wins you games.
3. Konsta Helenius :
Craig Button's list moved him up to 4th. I think that is a little bit of reach, only because I'm not sold that he hits his absolute ceiling to justify being so high. I'd love him at 12th though. Complete 200 ft center. Top tier IQ. High floor. In terms of comparables I would say his abosolute ceiling is Nick Backstrom. Floor is a smidge worse than Anton Lundell, which is still pretty darn good. Realistically I think he will be a top 6 center. If the flyers took him over either of the first 2, I wouldn't be mad. Great player that will help you win in regular and playoff hockey situations. Fantastic complimentary play style to Michkov.
4. Berkly Catton :
The full write up reads a little harsh for Catton. I don't think that it is fair as he is a kid, so hopefully it comes off better in this version. Offensively Cattom is the Highest IQ most electric player on the board. How does that sentence lead to him being ranked 4th? Well, he may take face offs, but he doesn't truly play the Center. By this I mean that the most important part of the center position is the ability to have a positive impact in all 3 zones, not just the one with the other teams goalie. In short, he is not a complete hockey player. My biggest concern is his motor. That concern snowballs into questions on how his development shakes out. It takes work develop your game. So, if I'm already concerned about his work ethic, how can I confidently project he will put in the work needed to become better? That's a tough question and the answer is I don't. I can't imagine a player with a motor like this is a difference maker come NHL playoffs. To win in playoffs you have to earn it and I'm not sold Catton can play the type of hockey needed to win in a 7 game series. Finally, while him and Michkov would make magic offensively and on the powerplay, the sheer number of goals against they'd rack up may negate the good feeling from that offensive magic. Perfect of example of a player I view as missing the yin element to blend with Michkov. The offense fits, but they share a similar weakness in the defensive end that in my opinion combines to creates a major weakness. Also Catton may pass the puck to Michkov effectively to Michkov, but if they are on D he will not create more opportunities to put the game on Michkov's stick... if that makes sense. To word it differently, he won't make a big play to win a puck battle(reach and ring turn probably) and he won't make a huge steal in the D-zone to get the puck(unless they toss it straight at him) regain possession putting the game back into the hands Michkov. That said as is the upside is still high enough that he gets the 4th spot.
5. Cole Eiserman
In traditional prospect ranking I would have him ahead of Catton. Specifically for the flyers I put him lower. Mainly because I think his play style is redundant in long term construction of the core. In my mind a playmaking 2 way player that score goals too is a better compliment for Michkov than a player that posts up and swings away. Eiserman's play making is underrated and his shot is lethal. That said, I have the exact same concerns with Eiserman as I did Cutter. Great passenger, a dude you want in the car, but don't expect him to drive. To put it differently, a solid player, but not close to the type of play driver I want at 12. 2 minutes left down 2-1, is he going to hit the ice and make sure this game goes past 60? I don't think so. Post up and pot one to send it past 60, while an actual play driver does their thing? Possibly. I think he is more promising than cutter so that is something. Maybe that is too harsh on Eiserman, I mean it is probably tough to drive play yourself when future 2025 1st overall James Hagens is there to drive play for you. To specifically compare him to Nygard who is also a sniper. Nygard is far more of a complete player and is willing to go to the dirty areas of the ice to make a play for his team. Eiserman has more electric talent, but their overall IQ in finding the next pass is really comparable. I would actually give the edge in ability to drive to play to Nygard, but the real difference maker is the confidence I have in Nygard to make a play defensively and put the game back onto the stick of Matvei Michkov, especially in a must score situation. I'd put Eiserman's ceiling at Kyle Connor his floor is 55 year old Ovie. Regardless, great player lethal shot. And if the other options are gone I'd take him regardless of fit. Aquiring good young NHL talent is never a negative, if a player needs to be moved for a talent that fits better, young assets have the highest value.
Players I have pinned for pick at 31/32(probably 32)
Cole Hutson
Nikita Artmanov
Teddy Stiga
Matevi Gridin
Trevor Connelly
Sacha Bosivert
Emil Hemming
Stian Solberg
Michael Hage
Leo Sahlin Wallinius
Ryder Ritchie
Beckett Sennecke
Henry Mews
Charlie Elick
Dominik Badinka
Before I list my rankings I want clarify the criteria behind the rankings. First and foremost this is specifically geared towards the Flyers and players I deem to have a chance to be available at 12. Second, in all my rankings I give more weight to difficult to improve skills than skills that have a high chance of improving through development. Skills I view as difficult to improve in order of importance/weight in my evaluation IQ, motor/compete, skating. Improvable skills vary in weight used based on the players overall play style. Third, in tandem with the first, the ranking is heavily influenced by projected roster construction. By that I mean the goal in drafting is to contruct a cup contending roster and that requires projecting a players potential impact in NHL playoff hockey as well as how a prospect's play style fits with other core player pieces(Michkov). To me the ideal complement to a player like Michkov both shares qualities with him, but also has an element of Ying to his yang. By that I mean the ideal addition needs to have some comparable offensive ability, but overall the prospects greatest strengths should be in areas that are consider weak points in Michkovs game. To put it in a more literal context the ideal compliment to Michkov is speedy 200 ft player with a Good enough IQ to consistently make the next pass and at least sometimes at least some goal scoring capability. Size doesn't normally factor into my evaluation, but I do think it would benefit Michkov to have it a player with decent size on his line.
Now, that this has been stated, I'll try to condense my rankings :
1. Tij Iginla:
Easiest to condense. Have you seen his dad play? Than you know how he plays. A couple weeks ago selecting him was super possible. Now? Maybe less likely. He stunted at the u18 WC. Center/power forward. High 3rd liner floor. Ceiling is his dad. Not personally a big "bloodline" guy, but top 10 talents with NHL dads have had a real solid track record lately(Matt and Brady Tkachuk, Will Nylander, Sam Reinhart, etc)
2. Michael Bransegg-Nygard
Some people may be puzzled by this. Craig button moved him down, I must be an idiot if I ranked him here, right? Ehhh, I'm not the brightest bulb, but I do go with my gut. Does he have the highest upside on paper? No. Does he have enough to justify being taken 12th? 100%. For one this kid has one of the highest floors in this draft. Good hockey IQ. Fantastic skater. Probably the best motor and compete level in the whole draft. He lines up on the wing, but I think his 200 ft playstyle, top tier skating, good IQ, good size, and Lethal shot would make a potentially elite center. He doesn't seem electric, but there is a subtle flash to his hands that makes me think there is a ankle breaking beast in him waiting to be unleashed. Motor is his best attribute. He has that dawg in him. He might be the best at controlling the puck through contact and winning puck battles with an added bonus that a lot of his tape shows him doing it against grown men already. My ultimate justification for ranking him here is this kid is made for playoff hockey and how amazing his game would compliment Michkov on the wing or at center. To be as effective as we hope Michkov needs to get the puck on his stick. Nygard ensures that happens a lot more. In terms of ceiling I think Mika Zibanejad is a great comp. Floor is tough to comp, but I guess prime Raffl. A 3rd line guy that plays the kind of hockey that wins you games.
3. Konsta Helenius :
Craig Button's list moved him up to 4th. I think that is a little bit of reach, only because I'm not sold that he hits his absolute ceiling to justify being so high. I'd love him at 12th though. Complete 200 ft center. Top tier IQ. High floor. In terms of comparables I would say his abosolute ceiling is Nick Backstrom. Floor is a smidge worse than Anton Lundell, which is still pretty darn good. Realistically I think he will be a top 6 center. If the flyers took him over either of the first 2, I wouldn't be mad. Great player that will help you win in regular and playoff hockey situations. Fantastic complimentary play style to Michkov.
4. Berkly Catton :
The full write up reads a little harsh for Catton. I don't think that it is fair as he is a kid, so hopefully it comes off better in this version. Offensively Cattom is the Highest IQ most electric player on the board. How does that sentence lead to him being ranked 4th? Well, he may take face offs, but he doesn't truly play the Center. By this I mean that the most important part of the center position is the ability to have a positive impact in all 3 zones, not just the one with the other teams goalie. In short, he is not a complete hockey player. My biggest concern is his motor. That concern snowballs into questions on how his development shakes out. It takes work develop your game. So, if I'm already concerned about his work ethic, how can I confidently project he will put in the work needed to become better? That's a tough question and the answer is I don't. I can't imagine a player with a motor like this is a difference maker come NHL playoffs. To win in playoffs you have to earn it and I'm not sold Catton can play the type of hockey needed to win in a 7 game series. Finally, while him and Michkov would make magic offensively and on the powerplay, the sheer number of goals against they'd rack up may negate the good feeling from that offensive magic. Perfect of example of a player I view as missing the yin element to blend with Michkov. The offense fits, but they share a similar weakness in the defensive end that in my opinion combines to creates a major weakness. Also Catton may pass the puck to Michkov effectively to Michkov, but if they are on D he will not create more opportunities to put the game on Michkov's stick... if that makes sense. To word it differently, he won't make a big play to win a puck battle(reach and ring turn probably) and he won't make a huge steal in the D-zone to get the puck(unless they toss it straight at him) regain possession putting the game back into the hands Michkov. That said as is the upside is still high enough that he gets the 4th spot.
5. Cole Eiserman
In traditional prospect ranking I would have him ahead of Catton. Specifically for the flyers I put him lower. Mainly because I think his play style is redundant in long term construction of the core. In my mind a playmaking 2 way player that score goals too is a better compliment for Michkov than a player that posts up and swings away. Eiserman's play making is underrated and his shot is lethal. That said, I have the exact same concerns with Eiserman as I did Cutter. Great passenger, a dude you want in the car, but don't expect him to drive. To put it differently, a solid player, but not close to the type of play driver I want at 12. 2 minutes left down 2-1, is he going to hit the ice and make sure this game goes past 60? I don't think so. Post up and pot one to send it past 60, while an actual play driver does their thing? Possibly. I think he is more promising than cutter so that is something. Maybe that is too harsh on Eiserman, I mean it is probably tough to drive play yourself when future 2025 1st overall James Hagens is there to drive play for you. To specifically compare him to Nygard who is also a sniper. Nygard is far more of a complete player and is willing to go to the dirty areas of the ice to make a play for his team. Eiserman has more electric talent, but their overall IQ in finding the next pass is really comparable. I would actually give the edge in ability to drive to play to Nygard, but the real difference maker is the confidence I have in Nygard to make a play defensively and put the game back onto the stick of Matvei Michkov, especially in a must score situation. I'd put Eiserman's ceiling at Kyle Connor his floor is 55 year old Ovie. Regardless, great player lethal shot. And if the other options are gone I'd take him regardless of fit. Aquiring good young NHL talent is never a negative, if a player needs to be moved for a talent that fits better, young assets have the highest value.
Players I have pinned for pick at 31/32(probably 32)
Cole Hutson
Nikita Artmanov
Teddy Stiga
Matevi Gridin
Trevor Connelly
Sacha Bosivert
Emil Hemming
Stian Solberg
Michael Hage
Leo Sahlin Wallinius
Ryder Ritchie
Beckett Sennecke
Henry Mews
Charlie Elick
Dominik Badinka
renberg
Registered User
MGP, I really appreciate your analysis. Very well conceived in many ways. Center ice has to be the call unless one of the better defensemen slip to them-Buium, Dickinson or Silayev.
It looks as though Nygaard or Helenius are your preferences for the 12 OA pick. Hopefully you are correct.
My only concern here for this not happening is that the Flyers seem to be adverse to taking Euros high in the draft. Aside from Michkov, which was a no brainer, this club just spits on European talent early in the draft aside from Russian goaltenders, Tuomala or Andrae. For this reason, I just can't see them taking Nygaard or Helenius. Instead they'll go for the USNDT pick or the skinny kid from the WHL who has serious defensive deficiencies.
It looks as though Nygaard or Helenius are your preferences for the 12 OA pick. Hopefully you are correct.
My only concern here for this not happening is that the Flyers seem to be adverse to taking Euros high in the draft. Aside from Michkov, which was a no brainer, this club just spits on European talent early in the draft aside from Russian goaltenders, Tuomala or Andrae. For this reason, I just can't see them taking Nygaard or Helenius. Instead they'll go for the USNDT pick or the skinny kid from the WHL who has serious defensive deficiencies.
TheKingPin
Registered User
We need centers and D, but you take a wing if it’s BPA. The one thing they know how to get is 2 way centers. Go for high end skill.
Sombastate
Registered User
I think Freijj goes in the top 22, personally. So no real chance with our 31/32. But I also thought Gulyayev would go top 20 and he went 30 something, so what the hell do I know
I’m gonna throw another name out for consideration at 12,
Beckett Sennecke, RW, Oshawa. Some scouts feel he could transition to Center.
Beckett Sennecke, RW, Oshawa. Some scouts feel he could transition to Center.
Gregor Samsa
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- Sep 5, 2020
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I think I mentioned it here before but on Nygard’s prospect page here a poster did a video breakdown and he believes Nygard is functionally a center. That kinda piqued my interest as an outside the box option for a future center. He reminds me of those good but vanilla prospects who turn out to be great NHLers. I wouldn’t be stoked if he was the choice but I also won’t be disappointed
FLYguy3911
Sanheim Lover
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Knarf9o5o1o4o9
GostisBeHere Now
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So hes the kind of guy wed give up a 1st AND 2nd round pick for
Redpath
Registered User
- Sep 30, 2011
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The more I play around with the draft simulator, the more I am convinced that we are going to get someone very exciting.
Trying to approach things from a post-draft perspective of how NHL teams draft, I expect Sennecke to go higher than your typical fan-made mock draft + Yakemchuk to be apart of the run on defenseman in the 5-10 range.
Someone is going to be waiting for us that I'll be very happy about. A few weeks ago I would have thought Iginla was a pipe dream, but now he might be the one that I can realistically hold my breath for.
Trying to approach things from a post-draft perspective of how NHL teams draft, I expect Sennecke to go higher than your typical fan-made mock draft + Yakemchuk to be apart of the run on defenseman in the 5-10 range.
Someone is going to be waiting for us that I'll be very happy about. A few weeks ago I would have thought Iginla was a pipe dream, but now he might be the one that I can realistically hold my breath for.
Gregor Samsa
Registered User
- Sep 5, 2020
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Maybe Arizona will go wildly off the board again. There will almost certainly be a surprise or two before the Flyers pick. Some scouts and GM’s want their guy, consensus be damned.
Tankathon has us drafting Nygard with Silayev still on the board which I wouldn’t be thrilled with. Mymockdraft has us taking Dickinson which I would be very content. I don’t even care about the finals, just want the draft to come
I’d like the Flyers to add a good Russian prospect or player to the team. If Michkov is the real deal I’d hate if he felt alienated and wanted out or to go home or some shit.
Tankathon has us drafting Nygard with Silayev still on the board which I wouldn’t be thrilled with. Mymockdraft has us taking Dickinson which I would be very content. I don’t even care about the finals, just want the draft to come
I’d like the Flyers to add a good Russian prospect or player to the team. If Michkov is the real deal I’d hate if he felt alienated and wanted out or to go home or some shit.
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Everyone expects a good player to fall. What if the Flyers are just another team to pass on said player?
Sombastate
Registered User
I think this draft is entirely dependent on: How far will Eiserman and Connelly fall. How far will Sennecke. And how ballsy a team is willing to be in regards to Leterneau after Slaf became worthy of a number 1 pick
ponder719
M-M-M-Matvei and the Jett
They've gone off the board entirely.
ValeriKamensky
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- May 8, 2013
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Fans who really ready to spend 12 pick for Eiserman will be extremely disappointed. Tunnel vision with puck on his stick, almost non-NHL level of play without puck. He even doesn’t create chances for himself.
He is closer to Wahlstrom or Perlini than to Caufield, not to mention Boeser.
He is closer to Wahlstrom or Perlini than to Caufield, not to mention Boeser.
FlyTimmo
pit <3
- Jul 10, 2013
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Sounds like a Montreal reach at 5EP has Sennecke at 8 on their final list
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