Official 2023 NHL Draft Thread

[Kelmitchell2]

Provorov was the guy people wanted on this board the day of the draft that year. It was the right pick at the time

Shit I wanted him from the start of that season, and I was overly excited when we finally got the person I wanted lol

 

[Dr Jablonski PhD]

No one likes a production model more than me, but these tend to both underrate and overate European production since those leagues are historically tough to score in for young players. And depending on the model, it can tend to weight leagues more heavily than they should be since the European landscape has changed quite a bit over the last decade and a half depending on what is going on with the KHL.

Usage is king and Reinbacher played over 20 minutes a game for a mid-table club and to his credit produced quite well in that role. The difference is guys like Josi and Seider played for the best teams in their leagues during their draft years (Heiskanen played on the 3rd place team and a prestigious club at that) and therefore did not get the same usage. Reinbacher's D-1 production is good but not really much of the outlier you'd like to see from a non-traditional hockey. He slightly edges out a guy like Zanetti, who was not even a good OHL producer. Reinbacher is also one of the oldest players in the class where Josi, Seider, and Hesikanen were in the younger half (Josi and Hesikanen were really young).

The truth is probably somewhere in the middle.

Thanks, good info. My next comment would be since the model overshoots him well beyond the DYs of Seider/Heiskanen, might these things you mentioned put all their DYs in the same ballpark? Rather than adjust Reinbacher all the way down to just a 3rd Dman potential. That seems like quite a massive adjustment. Then you also have the fact that Reinbacher is not just his production. I've seen now multiple sources saying he genuinely did a good job defending against men in the NL and showed a great deal of poise and decision making ability. And my viewing of one game leads me to believe the same

 

[Tripod]

You can almost hear them salivating over adding a big RHD.

"We have been trying to add a top airing RHD since Niskanen left. We now hopefully have one for the next 15 years. We said we were going to build from the defense and this is the first step."

 

[deadhead]

You can almost hear them salivating over adding a big RHD.

"We have been trying to add a top airing RHD since Niskanen left. We now hopefully have one for the next 15 years. We said we were going to build from the defense and this is the first step."

Well, they did add Grans, and draft Attard.

 

[Wangstar]

Tom Willander,6-1,180,RD is an interesting Swede. I would look at him with 2nd first. There could be other guys on our list at 22, Perrault, some WHL ers, I would trade down if they are interested in Willander. Getting a RD, to pair with York on the pp, is a need.

 

[Gregor Samsa]

The plot twist is we draft 2 defensemen in the 1st round

 

[FlyerNutter]

The plot twist is we draft 2 defensemen in the 1st round

It’s something I fear.

The failed the last go around with largely the same scouting/developmental department in the last “retool”.

Sanheim, Provorov, Ghost, Myers, and Hagg were supposed to be the Crown Jewels to establish a great defence core. What an average, and vanilla pile of shit that ended up being.

We are about to repeat the process again, with another questionable staff, and HC.

I fear an obsession with defense this draft, and they have been doubled down on trying to home grow one for years.

 

[Maurice of Orange]

Flyers should go with a forward with the 7th pick and a defender with the 22nd pick.

 

[Columbus Hockey Dad]

Flyers should go with a forward with the 7th pick and a defender with the 22nd pick.

They should go with best player available at any position with all of their picks. Period.

 

[AndHeMissedTheNet]

Currently where I'm at is:
-Expecting the obvious top 4 to be gone but if Briere can trade up to one of those spots, then that's the clear best case scenario regardless of what they give up
-Would love Leonard
-Would be more than okay with Benson, Moore or Reinbacher
-Wouldn't hate Dvorsky but at the same time, I just don't feel like that's where they're going. That also would feel like a very Fletcher type of pick.
-Already said this on here recently but I don't want Michkov. Yes the upside is immense but the downside is literally "you are throwing this pick away".
-Every other name not mentioned here might be a reach but that doesn't mean that any other scenario here would piss me off equally. If they were to reach for, say, ASP or Perrault at 7... gotta say, I'd at least be intrigued.

 

[bauer]

The plot twist is we draft 2 defensemen in the 1st round

 

[Rebels57]

They should go with best player available at any position with all of their picks. Period.

That will be a Forward at 7.

 

[FLYguy3911]

Thanks, good info. My next comment would be since the model overshoots him well beyond the DYs of Seider/Heiskanen, might these things you mentioned put all their DYs in the same ballpark? Rather than adjust Reinbacher all the way down to just a 3rd Dman potential. That seems like quite a massive adjustment. Then you also have the fact that Reinbacher is not just his production. I've seen now multiple sources saying he genuinely did a good job defending against men in the NL and showed a great deal of poise and decision making ability. And my viewing of one game leads me to believe the same

I'm just putting context to the context. I was more so pointing out why those guys were so low in relation. Reinbacher could very well prove to be at that level, or more, (I haven't seen him enough to judge) but any #1 defenseman on a pro club would be hard pressed not to hit .5 PPG. You hit .5 PPG as a defenseman in a major European league as a draft eligible, and the model is going to love you. Now the fact he was able to become a #1 defenseman on his club may be a better indication than anything, but Kloten wasn't exactly a powerhouse. They just got promoted back to the A League before this season. Not exactly a tough depth chart to climb.

The author also has a model for win shares which factors in impact on goal differential. That's not exactly the most stable data, but when he factored that in, Reinbacher went from the 5th best defenseman in his data set to 17th.

Personally I like to analyze junior data. It's a more even playing field. These prospects are all getting appropriate usage. Last year Yurov got killed by NHLe models because he went pointless in the KHL, but he literally wasn't playing. On the other side a guy like Lekkerimaki graded out well because he had an unsustainable shooting percentage over 26 games in the SHL. He had worse production in Allsvenskan this year.

While we're on the topic. A lot of NHLe models don't have Bedard as the #1 guy and that just doesn't pass the smell test. Chatel has him 3rd! He really could not have produced much more than he did this year. There's a cap on CHL production because of all of the graduates to the AHL/NHL that ultimately don't produce and lower the NHLe conversion. Bedard's NHLe was ~34 points had he hypothetically played in the NHL this year. You could probably almost double that number.

Michkov had 20 points in 30 KHL games. That's not to take away from Michkov, but do we not think Bedard would have shredded the KHL this year?

 

[Chinatown88]

I'm just putting context to the context. I was more so pointing out why those guys were so low in relation. Reinbacher could very well prove to be at that level, or more, (I haven't seen him enough to judge) but any #1 defenseman on a pro club would be hard pressed not to hit .5 PPG. You hit .5 PPG as a defenseman in a major European league as a draft eligible, and the model is going to love you. Now the fact he was able to become a #1 defenseman on his club may be a better indication than anything, but Kloten wasn't exactly a powerhouse. They just got promoted back to the A League before this season. Not exactly a tough depth chart to climb.

The author also has a model for win shares which factors in impact on goal differential. That's not exactly the most stable data, but when he factored that in, Reinbacher went from the 5th best defenseman in his data set to 17th.

Personally I like to analyze junior data. It's a more even playing field. These prospects are all getting appropriate usage. Last year Yurov got killed by NHLe models because he went pointless in the KHL, but he literally wasn't playing. On the other side a guy like Lekkerimaki graded out well because he had an unsustainable shooting percentage over 26 games in the SHL. He had worse production in Allsvenskan this year.

While we're on the topic. A lot of NHLe models don't have Bedard as the #1 guy and that just doesn't pass the smell test. Chatel has him 3rd! He really could not have produced much more than he did this year. There's a cap on CHL production because of all of the graduates to the AHL/NHL that ultimately don't produce and lower the NHLe conversion. Bedard's NHLe was ~34 points had he hypothetically played in the NHL this year. You could probably almost double that number.

Michkov had 20 points in 30 KHL games. That's not to take away from Michkov, but do we not think Bedard would have shredded the KHL this year?

I see what you did there giggity.

 

[Dr Jablonski PhD]

I'm just putting context to the context. I was more so pointing out why those guys were so low in relation. Reinbacher could very well prove to be at that level, or more, (I haven't seen him enough to judge) but any #1 defenseman on a pro club would be hard pressed not to hit .5 PPG. You hit .5 PPG as a defenseman in a major European league as a draft eligible, and the model is going to love you. Now the fact he was able to become a #1 defenseman on his club may be a better indication than anything, but Kloten wasn't exactly a powerhouse. They just got promoted back to the A League before this season. Not exactly a tough depth chart to climb.

The author also has a model for win shares which factors in impact on goal differential. That's not exactly the most stable data, but when he factored that in, Reinbacher went from the 5th best defenseman in his data set to 17th.

Personally I like to analyze junior data. It's a more even playing field. These prospects are all getting appropriate usage. Last year Yurov got killed by NHLe models because he went pointless in the KHL, but he literally wasn't playing. On the other side a guy like Lekkerimaki graded out well because he had an unsustainable shooting percentage over 26 games in the SHL. He had worse production in Allsvenskan this year.

While we're on the topic. A lot of NHLe models don't have Bedard as the #1 guy and that just doesn't pass the smell test. Chatel has him 3rd! He really could not have produced much more than he did this year. There's a cap on CHL production because of all of the graduates to the AHL/NHL that ultimately don't produce and lower the NHLe conversion. Bedard's NHLe was ~34 points had he hypothetically played in the NHL this year. You could probably almost double that number.

Michkov had 20 points in 30 KHL games. That's not to take away from Michkov, but do we not think Bedard would have shredded the KHL this year?

Hmm yes interesting points. You may have alluded to it, but the fact that Reinbacher was being used as a #1 on a lesser team probably won't be kind to his goal differential. People are saying some really lofty things about him, so I'm not sure why we would be angry if the Flyers picked him. Unless it's passing on Michkov to do it

 

[FLYguy3911]

Hmm yes interesting points. You may have alluded to it, but the fact that Reinbacher was being used as a #1 on a lesser team probably won't be kind to his goal differential. People are saying some really lofty things about him, so I'm not sure why we would be angry if the Flyers picked him. Unless it's passing on Michkov to do it

I haven't been able to track down his formula but I would assume it is relative to team data and not raw +/-. But yes, playing a lot on a below average team could impact goal differentials.

He's also getting a boost for being a late '04 in his model. Apparently the data supports this.

 

[Dr Jablonski PhD]

If the Flyers take Reinbacher it's probably b/c they see a possibility of an imposing all situations #1 Dman and also a very high floor to fall back on. Do we still think the Seider pick was a bad decision at that time? Yzerman passed on all three of Zegras, Boldy, Caufield. One of the premier GMs in the league took a swing on a Dman that didn't look all that phenomenal in his DY. And one could argue that the forward talent remaining at #7 this year will be a lot worse than that of 2019, assuming Michkov already gone.

I'm just saying I don't think it would be something that necessarily indicates our new management is bad

 

[Nabrules]

Wheeler said he might go top 15. Bit rich for that profile but he's good.

Id be shocked if Willander isn’t the second dman chosen and if he doesn’t go top 12. Rightly or wrongly

 

[FlyerNutter]

If the Flyers take Reinbacher it's probably b/c they see a possibility of an imposing all situations #1 Dman and also a very high floor to fall back on. Do we still think the Seider pick was a bad decision at that time? Yzerman passed on all three of Zegras, Boldy, Caufield. One of the premier GMs in the league took a swing on a Dman that didn't look all that phenomenal in his DY. And one could argue that the forward talent remaining at #7 this year will be a lot worse than that of 2019, assuming Michkov already gone.

I'm just saying I don't think it would be something that necessarily indicates our new management is bad

I want to give whoever they take a shot. The same way I will do with Gauthier. I’m mighty skeptical since it’s the same scouting team, but yeah - I’ll cheer for Reinbacher if they take him.

I just want someone to get excited over. A real star I. The league. Fun to watch.

 

[DrinkFightFlyers]

Unless a defender has #1 potential, they shouldnt go Top 10. We just lived through 7 years of Provorov floundering in that role because they forced it on him due to draft status. I..nay..we cant do this again.

Realistically whomever we pick needs to hit. Getting a 2nd pair defenseman is just as bad as getting a middle (or bottom) six player. I prefer the forwards to Reinbacher but at the same time if the big time forwards are all gone (Bedard, Fanitilli, Michkov, Benson, Smith, Carlsson) and your choices are what is the third tier in this draft for forwards or Reinbacher, it is not the end of the world to take the defender. Not ideal but at the same time having him develop into a #4 defenseman seems just as likely as having whomever the other forward they chose (Leonard? Perrault? Dvorsky? Moore? Danielson? Wood?) will be a middle six guy.

I'm not pulling for any one player at this point but I wouldn't be upset (assuming none of the bigger ticket forwards is still available).

 

[Appleyard]

7: Zach Benson
22: Mikhail Gulyayev
71: Roman Kantserov
87: Tristan Bertucci
103: Yegor Klimovich
120: Damian Clara
135: Alexander Suvorov
167: Oskar Asplund
172: Isac Hedqvist
199: Simone Terraneo/Maxim Fedotov/Bogdan Konyushkov

Now half those guys will be gone by those slots... and no chance the Flyers only select 2x North American based prospects! But some names to watch out for in my eyes in rough slots.

 

[BrindamoursNose]

7: Zach Benson
22: Mikhail Gulyayev
71: Roman Kantserov
87: Tristan Bertucci
103: Yegor Klimovich
120: Damian Clara
135: Alexander Suvorov
167: Oskar Asplund
172: Isac Hedqvist
199: Simone Terraneo/Maxim Fedotov/Bogdan Konyushkov

Now half those guys will be gone by those slots... and no chance the Flyers only select 2x North American based prospects! But some names to watch out for in my eyes in rough slots.

If Appleyard says it, it should be done.

 

[deadhead]

I'm just keepin' cool. Something tells me it's going to be boring the next week or so, then come draft day a flurry of moves.
Maybe something like Hayes and 3rd pick for CBJ's 2nd and Gudbrunson. Then flip Gudbrunson with 50% retained for a 3rd and 4th.
Who knows? But I just get the feeling that Danny boy would like more picks in this draft and has the assets to obtain them.

 

[BobbyClarkeFan16]

It’s something I fear.

The failed the last go around with largely the same scouting/developmental department in the last “retool”.

Sanheim, Provorov, Ghost, Myers, and Hagg were supposed to be the Crown Jewels to establish a great defence core. What an average, and vanilla pile of shit that ended up being.

We are about to repeat the process again, with another questionable staff, and HC.

I fear an obsession with defense this draft, and they have been doubled down on trying to home grow one for years.

Development and injuries has played a huge role in the defenseman stagnating. Sanheim, Provorov and Gostisbehere at one point so had exceptional puck handling skills and could lead rushes. Look at them now and fumble the puck like it's a grenade and they no longer lead rushes. They get the puck off their sticks as quick as possible. That's a coaching issue. Those skills have been coached right out of their games.

Hagg was also a decent puck handler back in Sweden and the first thing the Flyers coaches do is get him to abandon that and just play a physical game instead. Myers had ability, but as what the Predators said when they got him, all the fundamentals in his game was completely wrong. When Nashville and Tampa Bay give up on someone, you know that things are bad. Once again, rather than coach the fundamentals and let Myers natural ability shine, the Flyers coaches that out of him.

As for Morin, the injury big did him in. It's a shame, but such is the case sometimes.

It'll be interesting to see what the development plan will be going forward, but I'm certainly not convinced that Laperriere is the guy to do that. It's going to be more of the same "check, check, check" and "defense, defense, defense" mentality that seems to plague this club. Any sort of forward thinking in terms of development seems to be out the window.

 

[Columbus Hockey Dad]

That will be a Forward at 7.

Then, so be it...