Prospect Info: [Official]: 2016 Draft Thread

[Pirate King Luffy]

If my math is correct(ish) the odds of picking at #1-3 (23.4% cumulative) are better than picking at #6 (17.5%). Yes I know that's not how probability works, but I'm just combining the chances at the top three for the sake of simplicity.

The odds favour the Flames picking at #7, with a nearly 40% chance.

Worst case scenario and hopefully the longest of shots come in when two or three teams below Calgary win all of the lotteries.

never tell me the odds.

 

[Ace Rimmer]

never tell me the odds.

I needed to know this because I ran the draft lottery simulator 28 times, and the Flames picked #3 once, and the rest were 6 or lower.

 

[FlamerForLife]

If my math is correct(ish) the odds of picking at #1-3 (23.4% cumulative) are better than picking at #6 (17.5%). Yes I know that's not how probability works, but I'm just combining the chances at the top three for the sake of simplicity.

The odds favour the Flames picking at #7, with a nearly 40% chance.

Worst case scenario and hopefully the longest of shots come in when two or three teams below Calgary win all of the lotteries.


The first significant drop-off in talent happens around #3, I assume. What about that 2nd tier - when does that drop happen?

IMO the 2nd tier starts to drop off after #9.

 

[Volica]

How so, could you elaborate please?

European.

Garbage.

 

[BigRangy]

If my math is correct(ish) the odds of picking at #1-3 (23.4% cumulative) are better than picking at #6 (17.5%). Yes I know that's not how probability works, but I'm just combining the chances at the top three for the sake of simplicity.

The odds favour the Flames picking at #7, with a nearly 40% chance.

Worst case scenario and hopefully the longest of shots come in when two or three teams below Calgary win all of the lotteries.


The first significant drop-off in talent happens around #3, I assume. What about that 2nd tier - when does that drop happen?

I believe the 2nd tier drop off at 4, then the third at 7, and another at 11.

AM
Finns

Dubois

Tkachuk/Nylander/Chychrun/Juolevi

Sergachev/McLeod/Keller


Though I do believe that there is a reasonable chance of the teams drafting 4-10 all being able to draft the guy they have ranked 4th. There is a good argument for each of these players listed to go 4th (except for McLeod imo, unless you need a center and don't like Dubois for some reason)

You could then have Bean, Jost, Fabbro, or Gauthier sneak into the top 10 as well.

 

[TheHudlinator]

How so, could you elaborate please?

Hey has too much skill like JG

 

[Calculon]

Flames really need to find a way to drop into the bottom four.

 

[TheHudlinator]

Flames really need to find a way to drop into the bottom four.

Meh just play hockey

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

The first significant drop-off in talent happens around #3, I assume. What about that 2nd tier - when does that drop happen?

It's subjective. the guys at TSN for instance say that from ~4-12 every player could have a case for four on a different team's list.

Personally I think Dubois is cementing himself as the clear #4 though.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Flames really need to find a way to drop into the bottom four.

We are getting Mathews, Calc. No worries

 

[Calculon]

We are getting Mathews, Calc. No worries

 

[JPeeper]

The solution isn't that hard, just play Hiller.

 

[DCDM]

The solution isn't that hard, just play Hiller.

No self-respecting coach is going to play an inferior goalie.

 

[moon*]

How so, could you elaborate please?

A soft perimeter winger is not what the Flames need in my view. Watching him he seems to excel when given space, struggle when pressured and hit. I think he will find the NHL has a lot less space than junior and he could have an problem adjusting to that more than what I have seen from the other guys.

As for a fit. Matthews and the Finns are better players so pretty clear why they are a better fit. For me Dubois is an obvious better player overall with the flexibility to play center.

Chychrun is a better player as well and as for fit gives us a lot of flexibility to either have a stacked top 4 with a cheap guy on a ELC which we could use with the salaries of the top 3 or the ability to move a Giordano or Hamilton to get the top 6 (or in that case top line) winger that we need.

Tkachuk is the power forward winger that we are lacking in our top 6. Gauthier has the size and scoring to fit well with Gaudreau and Monahan on the top line.

 

[tfong]

A soft perimeter winger is not what the Flames need in my view. Watching him he seems to excel when given space, struggle when pressured and hit. I think he will find the NHL has a lot less space than junior and he could have an problem adjusting to that more than what I have seen from the other guys.

As for a fit. Matthews and the Finns are better players so pretty clear why they are a better fit. For me Dubois is an obvious better player overall with the flexibility to play center.

Chychrun is a better player as well and as for fit gives us a lot of flexibility to either have a stacked top 4 with a cheap guy on a ELC which we could use with the salaries of the top 3 or the ability to move a Giordano or Hamilton to get the top 6 (or in that case top line) winger that we need.

Tkachuk is the power forward winger that we are lacking in our top 6. Gauthier has the size and scoring to fit well with Gaudreau and Monahan on the top line.

Personally I think Tkachuk has the biggest bust potential in that top 10 as his stats are so heavily inflated playing with Marner and Dvorak. Gauthiers game also has tremendous holes in it, despite the obvious toolset.

The reports out of the playoffs between Valor and the Armada is that he had a very pedestrian playoffs and probably needs quite a bit to round out his game.

I would take Gauthier ahead of Tkachuk but I'd take Nylander before either of them.

Hes got great all around skilled, not that soft (unless you put soft guys on the PK), and has good underlying stats and had a very impressive WJC where he elevated his game. Ok size, but won't be mistake for a bruiser certainly, but hockey IQ and speed are a plus in my books here.

Dubois is ahead of both of them. I'm still not certain Chychrun at this point but strong playoffs stats sofar.

 

[moon*]

Personally I think Tkachuk has the biggest bust potential in that top 10 as his stats are so heavily inflated playing with Marner and Dvorak. Gauthiers game also has tremendous holes in it, despite the obvious toolset.

The reports out of the playoffs between Valor and the Armada is that he had a very pedestrian playoffs and probably needs quite a bit to round out his game.

I would take Gauthier ahead of Tkachuk but I'd take Nylander before either of them.

Hes got great all around skilled, not that soft (unless you put soft guys on the PK), and has good underlying stats and had a very impressive WJC where he elevated his game. Ok size, but won't be mistake for a bruiser certainly, but hockey IQ and speed are a plus in my books here.

For me I like Gauthier because of his fit with Gaudreau and Monahan. I have big concerns about using him as a guy to drive the offense on his own line. That might be a bad reason to draft a guy but watching him in the summer WJHC camp and in the WJHC he seems to do a very good job of fitting with talented guys and in able to get into dangerous positions to score. He also was very good at using his body to control the puck along the boards.

He seems like the exact kind of player that would work on the wing with Gaudreau and Monahan. That likely boosts him up my rankings.

As for Tkachuk first off I am not impressed with Dvorak at all so don't think he does much to drive the offense on that team at all. But yes boosted numbers with Marner could be a concern. I have read from OHL/London posters discrediting this though and they say he isn't just a passenger on that team.

As for Nylander I think you can definitely put soft guys on the PK. He wasn't overly impressive at the WJHC, although that was obviously a limited viewing and hasn't looked good any time I have seen him play. As mentioned a real outside/perimeter player that prefers to give up the puck or turn back to the outside rather than make a tough play.

 

[tfong]

For me I like Gauthier because of his fit with Gaudreau and Monahan. I have big concerns about using him as a guy to drive the offense on his own line. That might be a bad reason to draft a guy but watching him in the summer WJHC camp and in the WJHC he seems to do a very good job of fitting with talented guys and in able to get into dangerous positions to score. He also was very good at using his body to control the puck along the boards.

He seems like the exact kind of player that would work on the wing with Gaudreau and Monahan. That likely boosts him up my rankings.

As for Tkachuk first off I am not impressed with Dvorak at all so don't think he does much to drive the offense on that team at all. But yes boosted numbers with Marner could be a concern. I have read from OHL/London posters discrediting this though and they say he isn't just a passenger on that team.

As for Nylander I think you can definitely put soft guys on the PK. He wasn't overly impressive at the WJHC, although that was obviously a limited viewing and hasn't looked good any time I have seen him play. As mentioned a real outside/perimeter player that prefers to give up the puck or turn back to the outside rather than make a tough play.

I think what concerns me is Gauthier's cy-young award stats and I'm not sure if that will translate well into the future. Keeping in mind that hes already in his 3rd season of CHL and he doesn't seem to have shown that much progression for being a 3rd year player. Does he have the toolset to play in the NHL? I think so, but its possible hes alot closer to Michael Ferland (similiar skillset) than anything else and Ferland had really good output in his 3rd year too.

For tkachuk, I mean I don't think he is a passenger, but definitely inflated stats is a concern in that maybe hes more of a PPG player than the close to 2.0 ppg he has right now. I think he'd be a pretty safe pick to make the NHL, but at the sametime I'm not sure how i feel about taking him with other possible home runs on the board.

We probably have differing opinions on Nylander at this point, I thought he had a very strong WJC. I don't think he drives the net as much per say, but more so because he is more of the dangly type (less than his brother though) and somewhat of a half board player. But William was like that too in his draft year and he quickly adapted to the pro North American game. I think the hockey IQ here will be good enough for him to make a similiar adjustment.

 

[TkachuckNotTkaczuk]

I'm wondering if BT will try to get a higher second pick at the draft? Think our 2nd and Dallas' 2nd (or 1st) to another team for a top 15 pick? Maybe have to add our other second or lower tier prospect (or roster player).

Reason for me thinking this way is if we were left with(on our board) Nylander or Chychrun as bpa at our position, do we then try our best to trade up to address our need for size up front? Say if a Gauthier is still on the table or similar?

 

[Demetric]

A soft perimeter winger is not what the Flames need in my view. Watching him he seems to excel when given space, struggle when pressured and hit. I think he will find the NHL has a lot less space than junior and he could have an problem adjusting to that more than what I have seen from the other guys.

As for a fit. Matthews and the Finns are better players so pretty clear why they are a better fit. For me Dubois is an obvious better player overall with the flexibility to play center.

Chychrun is a better player as well and as for fit gives us a lot of flexibility to either have a stacked top 4 with a cheap guy on a ELC which we could use with the salaries of the top 3 or the ability to move a Giordano or Hamilton to get the top 6 (or in that case top line) winger that we need.

Tkachuk is the power forward winger that we are lacking in our top 6. Gauthier has the size and scoring to fit well with Gaudreau and Monahan on the top line.

Thanks for sharing your opinion. However, I do not think you can think in terms of what does the team need now when drafting as 99% of these guys are not going to make the team next year or even 2. Should be BPA, and when all equal look are where there are holes in the prospect system. True this includes a power forward but it also includes right shots and top end FWs.

I will not be disappointed with Nylander one bit, I have him top 6 this year. After the top 3 my list is: <but will trust in what the Flames brass does with the pic>
Dubois, Tkachuk and Nylander

 

[InfinityIggy]

Gauthier doesn't have the hockey IQ to play on a line with Johhny and Money. He would be a total passenger.

 

[moon*]

Thanks for sharing your opinion. However, I do not think you can think in terms of what does the team need now when drafting as 99% of these guys are not going to make the team next year or even 2. Should be BPA, and when all equal look are where there are holes in the prospect system. True this includes a power forward but it also includes right shots and top end FWs.

I will not be disappointed with Nylander one bit, I have him top 6 this year. After the top 3 my list is: <but will trust in what the Flames brass does with the pic>
Dubois, Tkachuk and Nylander

I agree with you with the holes of the team, and tried to point out that I am likely wrong in wanting Gauthier so highly, although I think Gauthier could potentially play next year.

As for BPA even then I don't see Nylander as a fit.

I have it:

1. Matthews
2. Puljujarvi
3. Laine
4. Chychrun
5-6- Tkachuk/Dubois- I can't separate them so not really concerned either way
7. Gauthier
8. McLeod
9. Sergachev
10. Juolevi

And honestly if we are at 9/10 I would be fine dealing that for a current prospect on another team as I don't see either of those defensemen being worth it.

So even BPA I don't have Nylander in my top ten even if you take out team needs consideration.

 

[tfong]

I think Mcleod is going to be like Matthew Lombardi lol.

 

[The Gnome]

What about trading the pick if we can't get in the top 3 or land a big RH winger with size/skill? Trade it for a quality young player who fills a need on our team?

 

[OvermanKingGainer]

What about trading the pick if we can't get in the top 3

Absolute, emphatic No. The top of this draft is

1) Strong (Dubois, Tkachuk, Nylander, Chychrun, Sergachev, Juolevi, McLeod, and I'm sure one other "hidden gem" the Flames have discovered)
2) Expansion draft protected
3) Cost Controlled

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

I think Mcleod is going to be like Matthew Lombardi lol.

That's actually a really good comparison. Although, Matt Lombardi was a beast until Darrian Hatcher elbowed him in the head in game six of the second round 2004.