Prospect Info: [Official]: 2016 Draft Thread

[L13]

I think it's obvious chunkylover53 meant that he'd prefer it if the Flames took more chances on long-shot but highly skilled prospects--boom or bust picks, if you will--who could, if they fulfilled their potential, turn into top-6 players in the NHL than on players with questionable puckhandling and skating skills whom no sane person could envisage playing big minutes on a Stanley Cup contender no matter how their development progressed.

It's very hard to spin Kanzig and Hunter as players with high upside.

Now, you might say, well, very few players past the first round have high NHL upside, but that's exactly the point, I think; if there's a player like that who's available in the later rounds, the associated risk is most likely as high as or higher than the reward, which puts off other teams--and that's a tendency the Flames could exploit by drafting as many of these guys as possible with cheap picks.

 

[moon*]

Were guys like Lucic, Benn, Dwight King boom or bust guys?

Those 3 guys are the type of winger that we desperate need right now. It seems like a pretty poor strategy to go for supposed (because it is highly debatable whether these guys are any more boom or bust than others) boom or bust guys and ignore other types of players that you need to build a successful NHL roster.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

L13, the thing is everyone wants guys with size. The ones with good potential to be top 6/9 guys are all usually gone by the first 3 rounds. I think the Flames have done a great job at taking guys like Gaudreau, Mangiapagne, Kylington and also taking some guys with size who would fill organizational needs.

 

[Lunatik]

I think it's obvious chunkylover53 meant that he'd prefer it if the Flames took more chances on long-shot but highly skilled prospects--boom or bust picks, if you will--who could, if they fulfilled their potential, turn into top-6 players in the NHL than on players with questionable puckhandling and skating skills whom no sane person could envisage playing big minutes on a Stanley Cup contender no matter how their development progressed.

It's very hard to spin Kanzig and Hunter as players with high upside.

Now, you might say, well, very few players past the first round have high NHL upside, but that's exactly the point, I think; if there's a player like that who's available in the later rounds, the associated risk is most likely as high as or higher than the reward, which puts off other teams--and that's a tendency the Flames could exploit by drafting as many of these guys as possible with cheap picks.

These "risky" picks he wants also come with a lower floor and a much better chance at busting; that needs to be factored in and I am sure our scouts do. Our Western WHL scout has done a good job with guys like Kulak and Wotherspoon in recent years, I am inclined to give him the benefit of the doubt with someone like Kanzig, obviously he saw something he liked and Button agreed. I would also like to point out that Kanzig may have been normally a 4th round target but with no 4th the Flames took a bit of a chance.

But I really don't see the point in *****ing about whether we drafted Kanzig in the 3rd or the next Max Reinhart, Joey Leach or Ryan Howse. The last 3rd round pick that panned out for us was Bouma, who was also not the most skilled player in junior.

 

[Johnny GODreau]

Givani Smith (6'1 and 146 PIM) and Willie Knierim (6'3 and 147 PIM) fit the big and gritty narrative. Pick them both with FLA's 2nd and Flames third.

 

[Lunatik]

Givani Smith (6'1 and 146 PIM) and Willie Knierim (6'3 and 147 PIM) fit the big and gritty narrative. Pick them both with FLA's 2nd and Flames third.

What narrative? All we are saying is you need players of all sorts and the Flames identified a need and/or saw something in these guys that some fans don't. No one suggested just picking a guy for no other reason than they are gritty

 

[Body Checker]

If we pick 4th I am having a heck of a time deciding between Dubois, tkachuk and nylander. I know the obvious love on here for Dubois but those other two are just as appealing imo. Wouldn't be mad with any of them as our pick.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

To me, the top four rounds should be a focus on skill. You pick skilled guys, and hope they become physical specimens. You don't draft physical specimens and hope them to be high skill guys. That was our philosophy in the mid 90s and early 2000s... Look where it got us. I think our philosophy is skill now though and specifically hockey IQ and skating. Picking guys that are physically dominant at 17 or 18 is usually a recipe for disaster in the modern day. Tom Wilson, Lawson Crouse, Jake Virtanen not exactly what you want in a top 10 pick IMO.

I have no problem drafting Austin Carroll, Riley Bruce or Mike Ferland types in the 5th plus. But the top four rounds should be about skill. And no I don't mean small guys (I was the one pumping Boeser, White, Zboril, while our fan base was all in on Merkley).

I look at the teams with the consistently best drafting, Detroit,St. Louis Chicago, and Montreal (no I don't count top ten picks as good drafting) and they tend to pick skill time after time. That's why they are able to keep producing talent.

The NHL is a skill game. Most players are between 5'11-6'3. Sure there are some outliers but picking guys because they are tall is a statistically flawed philosophy. For every Chara there is a dozen Brodie's.

 

[Johnny GODreau]

What narrative? All we are saying is you need players of all sorts and the Flames identified a need and/or saw something in these guys that some fans don't. No one suggested just picking a guy for no other reason than they are gritty

Givani Smith seems like he has some skill. He was 2nd in goals and points on a bad Guelph Storm team.

 

[Lunatik]

Givani Smith seems like he has some skill. He was 2nd in goals and points on a bad Guelph Storm team.

hockeyprospect.com has him in their top 30 but i think most would have him ranked in the 3rd-4th round. I would be fine with taking him there.

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Snipes, Montreal has had a good last few drafts on paper, but that team has more holes than we have so calling them a good drafting team probably isn't warranted, yet. They are known for being notoriously small and undersized. The only reason they've had any playoff success in recent years is because they have the best player in the world playing between their pipes.

I agree we've really switched our focus to drafting skill, but now our biggest weakness is that we're too small. Treliving has done a nice job of adding a good balance throughout all areas and he will continue to do so this year. You draft to your list and take guys where you have them slotted accordingly.

 

[Calculon]

Yeah, can't teach natural skill. Can't teach size either but a small skilled player has a better chance of being a regular NHL'er than a guy whose sole positive attribute is his size. It's not 1999 anymore.

Smith and Kanzig were bad picks for where they were taken and there were no shortage of people saying that at the time they were made. The second and third round should be reserved for the best potential over all talent, not need. Would hope the Flames are looking at names like Day, Benson, Steel, etc, rather than simply drafting the biggest guy left or a goalie.

 

[moon*]

Isn't Day a size no skill guy?

I haven't seen much of him but hasn't most of the criticism been that he was so much bigger and stronger that he stood out but now that everyone has caught up physically he is pretty meh?

 

[joeyabs]

Day has more issues with IQ and effort. Great skater tho.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

Treliving was talking about how our pool was lacking offensive players when we picked up Shinkurak. I wouldn't be surprised if we put an emphasis on offense this draft.

 

[Lunatik]

Treliving was talking about how our pool was lacking offensive players when we picked up Shinkurak. I wouldn't be surprised if we put an emphasis on offense this draft.

Pollock, Janko & Mangiapane should be a nice boost, assuming Huska plays them in situations where they can produce

 

[Johnny Hoxville]

Pollock, Janko & Mangiapane should be a nice boost, assuming Huska plays them in situations where they can produce

Definitely, Tre has done a nice job of filling holes with so many of our top guys graduating.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Isn't Day a size no skill guy?

I haven't seen much of him but hasn't most of the criticism been that he was so much bigger and stronger that he stood out but now that everyone has caught up physically he is pretty meh?

He actually has a really great toolset, skill wise. Lacking in hockey IQ though. Would be really pleased if the Flames snagged him in the 3rd.

 

[Tkachuk Norris]

Personally, I think this is the year we should try trading our second or third rounders. Even Dallas first if we have it. Try to go after Andersen, Murray, Vasilevski, Hayes, Drouin, and other guys that could fill big needs.

Our biggest needs organizationally are NHL talent at wing and G IMO. Coming out with a top wing prospect like Dubois, a goalie like Kuemper/Vasilevski/Murray, and Kevin Hayes would be a great step to improving our depth where we need help most.

I may in the minority but I think this team is 3 good forwards, a goalie and mental toughness away from being a perennial contender.

 

[InfinityIggy]

Personally, I think this is the year we should try trading our second or third rounders. Even Dallas first if we have it. Try to go after Andersen, Murray, Vasilevski, Hayes, Drouin, and other guys that could fill big needs.

I actually agree, I wouldn't mind seeing the Flames move a couple pieces including a 2nd for a real goalie. If we could also nab a good, physical defender id be all over that.

 

[Calculon]

With an expansion draft coming soon, and possibly another one (Seattle/Quebec) after that, Treliving has to be careful in acquiring NHL ready talent.

The Flames cup window is not next season or even the season after so trading away picks for players that might end up being lost in an expansion draft doesn't make sense at this stage. And with so many players graduating to the AHL/NHL in the last couple of seasons and this one, Treliving also needs to restock the junior/college/European pipelines to ensure there's always a steady influx of talent coming up.

We might see a couple of second rounders or the Dallas first if the Flames get it plus a prospect get traded for an upgrade in net or wing but I could also see Treliving keeping and making all 11 draft picks he has for this year. Particularly if the Flames draft Matthews/Laine/Puljujarvi and believe signing Reimer makes more sense than overpaying for Andersen/Murray/Bishop, etc.

 

[Sparky93]

Yeah, can't teach natural skill. Can't teach size either but a small skilled player has a better chance of being a regular NHL'er than a guy whose sole positive attribute is his size. It's not 1999 anymore.

Smith and Kanzig were bad picks for where they were taken and there were no shortage of people saying that at the time they were made. The second and third round should be reserved for the best potential over all talent, not need. Would hope the Flames are looking at names like Day, Benson, Steel, etc, rather than simply drafting the biggest guy left or a goalie.

It wasn't just their size. Smith and Kanzig are both known to be extremely hard working character guys, who can both intimate, and create a lot of space for the developing higher skilled guys. They weren't just boom or bust picks, they were also insurance policies, that create a hard working environment and promote the kind of character this team needs.

 

[Flames Fanatic]

With an expansion draft coming soon, and possibly another one (Seattle/Quebec) after that, Treliving has to be careful in acquiring NHL ready talent.

The Flames cup window is not next season or even the season after so trading away picks for players that might end up being lost in an expansion draft doesn't make sense at this stage. And with so many players graduating to the AHL/NHL in the last couple of seasons and this one, Treliving also needs to restock the junior/college/European pipelines to ensure there's always a steady influx of talent coming up.

We might see a couple of second rounders or the Dallas first if the Flames get it plus a prospect get traded for an upgrade in net or wing but I could also see Treliving keeping and making all 11 draft picks he has for this year. Particularly if the Flames draft Matthews/Laine/Puljujarvi and believe signing Reimer makes more sense than overpaying for Andersen/Murray/Bishop, etc.

I still expect even if we are going for a FA goalie that we have a pretty decent chance of trading for their rights beforehand.

 

[Calculon]

It wasn't just their size. Smith and Kanzig are both known to be extremely hard working character guys, who can both intimate, and create a lot of space for the developing higher skilled guys. They weren't just boom or bust picks, they were also insurance policies, that create a hard working environment and promote the kind of character this team needs.

When there's no shortage of hard working AHL'ers that can be signed each and every off season, wasting high picks on more of them is nonsensical.

The primary issue with Kanzig and Smith is simply that they were picked too high. If the Flames had gambled fourth round picks or later on them, no one would care. The Flames passed on a lot of potentially good players to take projects so early; names like Montour, Dvorak, Point, Duclair, Buchnevich, Baptiste, Bjorkstrand, Fasching, Paul, Lipon, etc. Although without looking at pre-draft rankings, maybe that's just the benefit of hindsight.

I still expect even if we are going for a FA goalie that we have a pretty decent chance of trading for their rights beforehand.

No need to trade for UFA rights when teams have a full week to gauge interest with UFA's prior to July 1st.

 

[Sparky93]

When there's no shortage of hard working AHL'ers that can be signed each and every off season, wasting high picks on more of them is nonsensical.

The primary issue with Kanzig and Smith is simply that they were picked too high. If the Flames had gambled fourth round picks or later on them, no one would care. The Flames passed on a lot of potentially good players to take projects so early; names like Montour, Dvorak, Point, Duclair, Buchnevich, Baptiste, Bjorkstrand, Fasching, Paul, Lipon, etc. Although without looking at pre-draft rankings, maybe that's just the benefit of hindsight.

No need to trade for UFA rights when teams have a full week to gauge interest with UFA's prior to July 1st.

I know what you're saying, but if you're gonna take a shot on a big guy, with some skill, the 3rd round seems as good as any. Like you said, hind sight plays a big part. There's 29 other teams that wish they would have taken a flyer on Gaudreau and Brodie earlier. I wouldn't support it every year, but once in a while it doesn't hurt. Especially for guys that will be at worst great character guys in the minors.