Official 2015 tank thread IV

[Havok89]

Watch this be the year where a team like the Cavaliers (11th) win the lottery, a team that is in playoff contention until April. I just have a strong feeling it's going to be a team like Dallas, Minnesota or Philly. A team that no one expects lands Connor McDavid.

Doesn't bother me if we finish last and land Eichel.

 

[joshjull]

I recall the ranting and raging about "ruining the tank!", "The tank is over!", "Murray is a failure", "Trade myers/enroth/anyone!", etc.

And of course whenever any of that was mentioned over the past few weeks, it was met with a mocking chorus of "guess advance stats are wrong", "watch the game!", "shot quality!", "Team defense!", "Keeping shots to the outside!", "Enroth is playing sustainably because his season average is sustainable!", "Won again? I thought advanced stats said we should lose! I thought this was unsustainable ", etc. Those were all things I remember people saying and are the only ranting and raving I remember.

The posts I'm referring to were deleted by myself and other mods. But I definitely agree there has been raging and silliness on both sides. Oh do I ever. I think I spent more time, during that little run, cleaning up GDTs than watching the games.

Yeah we've had some injuries/illnesses but they've been pretty mild compared to a lot of other teams. Nothing that a good team wouldn't expect to deal with over the course of a season. Yeah we did have a good thing going. Nolan pretty much had the team set up to get the absolute most out of it anyone could (and thats a compliment considering I've never thought nolan was anything special), but everyone should have been able to see how fragile it was. It was a house of cards and it was never going to take very much to knock down. Most other teams could take the injuries we've had in stride without completely falling apart. We don't have the depth and experience, and injuries have always been part of the consideration (at least from my viewpoint) when discussing the tank and not worrying about it.

I agree our success was a house of cards. But the injuries were what knocked it down. Who got hurt and sick was a big factor in their collapse not how many. Because that structure that emerged relied on a small handful of players. Having said that, you've made it clear you've viewed injuries as something that would derail things along with the numbers collapsing. So I guess my comments aren't really specific to your stance.

Shots for: 309 (23.8/game)
Shots against: 448 (34.5/game)



Shots for: 214 (23.7/game)
Shots against: 303 (33.7/game)

We're not shooting less or giving up more shots per game now after the injuries compared to during the 13 game run. What would you say accounts for the fact that fewer of our shots are going in, while more of our opponent shots are going in? If injuries were the sole responsibility, I'd suspect that would show up in giving up more shots while taking fewer, but that is not the case.

Lack of confidence. Once the structure broke down with key injuries the team's confidence fell apart. Look I'm not arguing that 10-3 stretch is indicative of their potential or closer to how they should be playing because thats not the case. What I'm saying is their play dropped off so precipitously because of injuries not because some algorythm corrected itself.

As a bigger point thats not completely specific to us tanking or not is ……. NHL teams play better than their underlying numbers all the time, sometimes significantly better. And it can last for an entire season or even two. So our little 13 game run is hardly a blip in that context. Teams have also underperformed their underlying numbers as well. I think what drives me craziest is this idea that some have in their minds that sports can be reduced to a math equation. (I just made Zip mad with that comment). That things are practically guaranteed to work out a certain way based on the underlying numbers.

There are many things that can impact a NHL teams' performance that can defy their underlying numbers. Things like finding a system to work within the weaknesses you have as a team. A way to maximize the skill you do have. NHL coaches have been doing this type of things for years. Also your goaltending is a big part of the equation in how your team can outplay (or underperform) your underlying numbers. There is also the human elements of the game; confidence in self and in teammates which leads to belief in the team. How thats developed can be from a variety of ways, chemistry, certain players stepping up, the coach motivating players and getting them to belief in themselves. Conversely the opposite is true. A team with little chemistry, confidence or belief in itself may play below where their underlying numbers say they should be. An example being Edmonton. Zip did a great job breaking down why the Oilers's goalies should be playing better than they have. If they were it would obviously lead to the team having more confidence in them and having a better belief in their chances at winning. But for whatever reason the Oiler goalies for most of the year have struggled with their confidence and its spreads to the team. There really is no stat you can use to measure why thats happening. You can just measure that it is.


I'm as in favor of us bottom out and finishing last as anyone. So this isn't the raging of someone thats anti tank in any way. I'm also as pro analytics/advanced stats for team building as anyone else as well. But I think some get very carried away with what they can mean. My take on this season has always been we will finish near or at the bottom and get a really good to great player we can add to the best prospect pool in the league. So I don't get wound up over this season one way or another. I view this season ending in the positive, possibly spectacularly so. So I can enjoy a surprising win without getting wound up over its consequences. To state the obvious, my reaction to them winning or losing has no bearing on the outcome. So why not just enjoy a win?. I just want the season to be over. On that I think everyone can agree

Btw, this rant wasn't directed at you or anyone specific really.

 

[sabresfan129103]

Watch this be the year where a team like the Cavaliers (11th) win the lottery, a team that is in playoff contention until April. I just have a strong feeling it's going to be a team like Dallas, Minnesota or Philly. A team that no one expects lands Connor McDavid.

Toronto. Just kill me if that happens.

 

[RecycledEichel]

Toronto. Just kill me if that happens.

I'll be fine win anyone winning, except for Toronto.. I'd be soooo pissed

 

[Paxon]

IF we get Eichel I wouldn't even care if Toronto got McDavid. It'd be awesome for the rivalry as much as I'd hate to see anything good happen to the Leafs. If we don't get either and the Leafs get McDavid I'd be despondent.

 

[Savitar]

I hope if we do get Eichel he comes right away and doesn't stay in College, he's NHL Ready now and say we win then lottery the McDavid would be a pipe dream

 

[thefifagod]

concerned that the Canes are trading Ward.

Don't see it making much, if any, of a difference. The save percentage gap between Ward and Khudobin is fairly small and the Canes getting J. Staal back more than makes up that gap. I think the Sabres will build a gap there but it would certainly help for the Canes to hold on to Sekera until the trade deadline. The longer they have him, the better they will be for the next 6-8 weeks.

 

[haseoke39]

If we got eichel I'd love to see Toronto get mcdavid.... And then proceed to eat him alive.

 

[Ron C.]

If we get eichel I'd love to see Toronto get mcdavid.... And then proceed to eat him alive.

I would much rather have Toronto draft Patrik Stefan II and watch the Leaf fans implode.

 

[Slapshot85]

I hope if we do get Eichel he comes right away and doesn't stay in College, he's NHL Ready now and say we win then lottery the McDavid would be a pipe dream

At least with Eichel, you'll have flexibility in where to send him-NHL, Rochester, or back to college (which is a bit better playing against peers the same age and older than you, I think?) if the Sabres-pretending they get him-want one more year of development with him.

 

[NotABadPeriod]

At least with Eichel, you'll have flexibility in where to send him-NHL, Rochester, or back to college (which is a bit better playing against peers the same age and older than you, I think?) if the Sabres-pretending they get him-want one more year of development with him.

Eichel is NHL-ready. I highly doubt any team will send him to the AHL or let him stay in college one more year (unless he wants to, which would be out of their control but equally stupid on Eichel's part, no matter how much the Terrier fan in me would love it).

 

[1972]

Eichel would be our best player by Jan 1st 2016 if we got him. I don't see him playing anywhere but the NHL. On Hanifin, I don't think he is ready for the NHL. But I also don't think we have to worry about him as I don't believe we would even take him.

 

[Beerz]

Jeremy Rutherford ‏@jprutherford 2m2 minutes ago

Carolina, 1-0.

 

[RecycledEichel]

1-1 that was fast

 

[Beerz]

Jeremy Rutherford ‏@jprutherford 46s47 seconds ago

Skinner for Carolina, 2-1.

 

[1972]

"Well, which team, the one that was banged up or the one that's on the ice now," Hitchcock said when asked about Carolina. "The one now's a good team. There's implementation of 90 percent Detroit [Red Wings] here, which [Hurricanes coach Bill Peters] was with them a long time. You can see all the principles that the Red Wings have sitting there in Carolina. Very difficult when top players are out to manage the game, manage minutes, stay afloat. The team that's played the last couple games, especially the game that they played in Nashville's very impressive. I'm sure Bill would have liked to have this lineup from Day One. It's unfortunate, but this is a lineup you can win with and I think he knows that."

 

[SabreOil]

"Well, which team, the one that was banged up or the one that's on the ice now," Hitchcock said when asked about Carolina. "The one now's a good team. There's implementation of 90 percent Detroit [Red Wings] here, which [Hurricanes coach Bill Peters] was with them a long time. You can see all the principles that the Red Wings have sitting there in Carolina. Very difficult when top players are out to manage the game, manage minutes, stay afloat. The team that's played the last couple games, especially the game that they played in Nashville's very impressive. I'm sure Bill would have liked to have this lineup from Day One. It's unfortunate, but this is a lineup you can win with and I think he knows that."

Music to my ears

 

[Beerz]

Jeremy Rutherford ‏@jprutherford 16s17 seconds ago

Staal breakaway goal, 3-1 ... Allen coming in.

 

[1972]

Carolina has completely dominated this first 10 minutes.

 

[Savitar]

If Carolina could win I'd be shocked, I was not expecting this but it would be quite something of they could win

 

[NotABadPeriod]

Coyotes though are down 3-1 to Ottawa. Arguably a bigger threat than Carolina.

 

[Clock]

Tank is stylin'. Much as I don't want to root against the Sabres I'm very excited about what it means for the draft. I was telling a guy at work that if we still get 1/2 that that win streak is really ideal for the taste of winning and something to look back on the season on with a little pride and something to want to build on.

And Carolina helping out against the Blues, no less... love it.

 

[Zman5778]

Coyotes though are down 3-1 to Ottawa. Arguably a bigger threat than Carolina.

A much bigger threat if they sell off guys like Doan and Vermette and Yandle and Erat and Michalek

They could basically strip down to Boedker, Hanzal, OEL and not much more.

 

[B U F F A L O]

A much bigger threat if they sell off guys like Doan and Vermette and Yandle and Erat and Michalek

They could basically strip down to Boedker, Hanzal, OEL and not much more.

Cap wise they can make that work?

[another RIP to capgeek moment]

 

[Zman5778]

Cap wise they can make that work?

[another RIP to capgeek moment]

They're $8 mil from the floor, based on pre-season room.

I'm sure they'd make it work and rather easily.