Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season VI: It's no longer the off-season, but the thread isn't done yet

[Deebo]

delete

 

[ER89]

Also that Collins doesn't need waivers.

Yeah but then he wouldn't get his prediction right soo.... Get with the program dis.

 

[Discoverer]

He doesn't need waivers but that is irrelevant if we are carrying 3C either way.

It makes sense if we were going 2C, Bird, Lukes, Tapia, Espinal for example.

Yeah, I just mean to emphasize that he's wrong either way: if the Jays keep Collins, he's wrong about that, and if they send him down he's wrong about Collins clearing waivers.

And hey, I'm wrong about stuff all the time (including here if they keep Collins on the roster - I didn't see that coming), but I also don't constantly brag about how smart I am and how I'm always right about everything regardless of whether or not there's evidence that I was right.

 

[phillipmike]

The White Sox and Blue Jays Swap Backup Catchers

A minor swap should improve the fortunes of both these playoff contenders, albeit only marginally.

blogs.fangraphs.com

But even though both Reese McGuire and Zack Collins play catcher, they do so in very different ways. Amusingly, as we at FanGraphs work through our Positional Power Rankings, Collins is essentially positionless power. His home run totals in the minors and batted ball metrics in the majors tell a consistent story; if he can figure out a way to limit his strikeouts, he’ll be a fearsome hitter.

Having all of Jansen, Kirk, and McGuire on the Blue Jays clearly didn’t make sense, particularly with Moreno’s imminent arrival. If you had to choose one of the three as a starter, it would be Jansen, who best combines defense and offense. If you had to choose one as a backup, it would be Kirk; the extra value he provides as a DH is huge, and even at catcher, his combination of good hitting and acceptable defense might make him a better option than McGuire. That leaves McGuire to get jerked around between Triple-A and the majors as needed, except that he was out of options. As soon as the Jays needed roster space, they’d lose him for nothing.

This had to be intentional.

 

[Habsfan18]

 

[Cloned]

The new Panik for Montoyo, and probably to the chagrin of many on this board.

 

[theaub]

Big day for good Twitter shitposting

 

[Discoverer]

Didn't see that one coming. Looks like we all guessed the wrong former Yankee prospect who's going to come back to haunt them!

 

[Bjindaho]

But he's worse than Lopez!

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Hoverhand]

Feel like Katoh having reverse splits in both of his past two seasons makes him a weird option for a lefty bench bat but I guess the positional versality won out?

I still don't love our Centerfield depth and would have liked to see Lukes shore that up but we'll see how it plays out. If Springer gets hurt, all of the sudden we're reliant on Tapia playing everyday despite a below average glove in center and a below average bat that Montoyo is going to play too high in the lineup.

 

[Discoverer]

Feel like Katoh having reverse splits in both of his past two seasons makes him a weird option for a lefty bench bat but I guess the positional versality won out?

I still don't love our Centerfield depth and would have liked to see Lukes shore that up but we'll see how it plays out. If Springer gets hurt, all of the sudden we're reliant on Tapia playing everyday despite a below average glove in center and a below average bat that Montoyo is going to play too high in the lineup.

Tapia doesn't have much experience in CF, but the numbers there are fantastic (even though they come in under 200 innings, which makes them basically meaningless).

The issue with the lefty bench bat thing is... whether it's Bird, Katoh, Lukes, or Palacios, who is he going to come off the bench for? None of those guys hit righties better than any of the righties in the everyday lineup.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I'm really not a fan of this. If Springer, Gurriel, or Teo is DHing or a day off I want Tapia or Biggio playing. If Chapman, Bo, or Biggio is DHing or day off I want Espinal playing. What use does Katoh have? I sure don't want him playing unless there's injuries. I'm prepared to be angry everytime he gets into the lineup. Seems like that spot would have been better used on an extra pen arm for now.

 

[Canada4Gold]

With Pearson not on the roster I guess this means Vasquez, and Merryweather make it. Borucki too if he's helathy, if not then Saucedo?

 

[Puckstuff]

1-9 the Jays starters are elite and in the 7-9 slots we're talking about Kirk, Biggio, Espinal and Jansen in those slots, which is kind of insane. Therefore a pinch hitter (Bird who can only play 1B/DH) is less valuable to a team like Toronto because the only time he would pinch hit might be for like Jansen or something, but then because you have Kirk as the DH so you sort of can't even bring Bird into the game even in that scenario. With Katoh he can sub in defensively at times especially when we're winning by a lot.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Springer, Bo, Vlad, Teo, Gurriel, Kirk, Chapman, Biggio, Jansen
Espinal, Tapia, Collins, Katoh
Berrios, Gausman, Ryu, Manoah, Kikuchi
Romano, Mayza, Garcia, Cimber, Richards, Phelps, Stripling, Merryweather, Vasquez, Borucki/Saucedo

 

[Hoverhand]

Tapia doesn't have much experience in CF, but the numbers there are fantastic (even though they come in under 200 innings, which makes them basically meaningless).

The issue with the lefty bench bat thing is... whether it's Bird, Katoh, Lukes, or Palacios, who is he going to come off the bench for? None of those guys hit righties better than any of the righties in the everyday lineup.

I'm admittedly no expert in defensive analytics, I usually just go off of UZR/150 through fangraphs or dWar through BRef, neither of which look too favourably on Tapia but if there's better metrics out there that like his play, I'll embrace him as a defensive option.

You're right that the PH opportunities would probably be limited, I think alot of that it would've depended on how well Espinal/Biggio do this season but that's all secondary to my main argument in favour of Lukes. I think he has a very good chance of having a better season than Tapia and I'd prefer to try him as the 4th OF with Tapia being mostly restricted to PR and defensive substitutions.

 

[rojac]

I'm admittedly no expert in defensive analytics, I usually just go off of UZR/150 through fangraphs or dWar through BRef, neither of which look too favourably on Tapia but if there's better metrics out there that like his play, I'll embrace him as a defensive option.

You're right that the PH opportunities would probably be limited, I think alot of that it would've depended on how well Espinal/Biggio do this season but that's all secondary to my main argument in favour of Lukes. I think he has a very good chance of having a better season than Tapia and I'd prefer to try him as the 4th OF with Tapia being mostly restricted to PR and defensive substitutions.

Tapia has played 37 games in CF at at the major league level and only 18 of those games were starts which means that in he other 19 games, he was likely moved in the last two or three innings. So, is this even a big enough sample space for any of these defensive stats to mean anything?
.

 

[Canada4Gold]

 

[Bjindaho]

I'm really not a fan of this. If Springer, Gurriel, or Teo is DHing or a day off I want Tapia or Biggio playing. If Chapman, Bo, or Biggio is DHing or day off I want Espinal playing. What use does Katoh have? I sure don't want him playing unless there's injuries. I'm prepared to be angry everytime he gets into the lineup. Seems like that spot would have been better used on an extra pen arm for now.

We all know that Katoh will start at least once per week because Montoyo. Heck, it wouldn't shock me if he DHs game 3 or 4 of the season.

 

[Bjindaho]

Tapia has played 37 games in CF at at the major league level and only 18 of those games were starts which means that in he other 19 games, he was likely moved in the last two or three innings. So, is this even a big enough sample space for any of these defensive stats to mean anything?
.

That's okay. The Jays are saying Katoh plays RF and he's played 7 outs worth in his pro career.

 

[kb]

We all know that Katoh will start at least once per week because Montoyo. Heck, it wouldn't shock me if he DHs game 3 or 4 of the season.

There will never be a valid reason for Katoh to play ahead of Espinal or pinch hit for Espinal - ever.

But it's going to happen and will cost W's.

 

[Discoverer]

I'm admittedly no expert in defensive analytics, I usually just go off of UZR/150 through fangraphs or dWar through BRef, neither of which look too favourably on Tapia but if there's better metrics out there that like his play, I'll embrace him as a defensive option.

You're right that the PH opportunities would probably be limited, I think alot of that it would've depended on how well Espinal/Biggio do this season but that's all secondary to my main argument in favour of Lukes. I think he has a very good chance of having a better season than Tapia and I'd prefer to try him as the 4th OF with Tapia being mostly restricted to PR and defensive substitutions.

Tapia in CF (in just 189 inning):
+3 DRS
-0.5 UZR
+4 OAA

That looks really good to me. But, again, it's probably meaningless either way.

 

[Bjindaho]

There will never be a valid reason for Katoh to play ahead of Espinal or pinch hit for Espinal - ever.

But it's going to happen and will cost W's.

The only good thing is that he is 27 and has a 10+ BB rate his whole minor league career.

Thought Lukes should have (or should) make it

 

[Man Bear Pig]

Katoh gets on base. I guess that's the reasoning here?