Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season VI: It's no longer the off-season, but the thread isn't done yet

[hockeywiz542]

After Guerrero Jr. flashes speed, Blue Jays deal for new kind of catcher

The Toronto Blue Jays' trade of Reese McGuire for fellow catcher Zack Collins marks a subtle but significant shift while Sunday's lineup also offered some further clarity to how the team will use their existing players with Vladimir Guerrero Jr. back hitting in the three spot.

www.sportsnet.ca

Alejandro Kirk’s defensive importance to the Blue Jays only grows after the departure of McGuire, who had worked with Toronto’s pitchers for the last four seasons. Greg Bird still seems well-positioned to claim the team’s last open 40-man spot and earn a bench role. And with respect to the relievers fighting for the remaining bullpen spots, those decisions won’t fundamentally alter the shape of this team.

By now, we know what the Toronto Blue Jays look like. The more interesting questions revolve around how the players will be deployed.

On that front, the trade of McGuire for Collins marks a subtle but significant shift. While both are 27-year-old catchers who hit from the left side, their profiles as players are very different. Where McGuire’s biggest strength is his glove, the Blue Jays are most intrigued by Collins’ bat. His experience behind the plate is an asset, of course, but he may end up being used more as a designated hitter or pinch hitter.

While Collins has a lifetime OPS of just .645, some of his underlying numbers suggest he has greater offensive upside. For his career, he has a barrel rate of 11.4 per cent, an average exit velocity of 91.1 m.p.h. and a max exit velocity of 109.9 m.p.h. — all higher than McGuire's. On a team that tilts heavily to the right, his left-handed bat has the chance to prove useful. If not, the acquisition cost was modest for an organization that’s already deep in catching.

Defensively speaking, some in the industry view Collins as below-average. But as Kirk has continued developing behind the plate, he became a more important part of the Blue Jays’ defensive plans. With one notable exception, the Blue Jays have been sure to pair Kirk with all of their pitchers this spring in an attempt to build familiarity.

"That's why we like everybody catching everybody," manager Charlie Montoyo said Sunday morning, before the trade had been completed. "That’s what really happened this spring and everybody got every pitcher except (Danny) Jansen, who was the only one who got (Hyun-Jin) Ryu."

The Blue Jays gained some flexibility with the trade: Collins has minor-league options remaining while McGuire does not. While Collins has a chance to break camp with the team, rosters will shrink from 28 to 26 on May 1. They’ll have the flexibility to send Collins to the minors if that’s useful in the weeks ahead.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't care about Reese's bat. He provides ridiculous value at defense, and if we needed to trade Kirk for an upgrade I didn't mind Reese playing twice a week or taking 1/5 starters.

I also don't really care about Reese, I just don't understand why we went for this guy.

There's a point at which you should care about the bat. Jeff Mathis has always had elite defensive value, but he's also always sucked.

This isn't the kind of trade I was hoping to see for McGuire, but Collins strikes me as a much, much better fit for this team. Beyond having an option left, he's a LHH 1B/DH with some major offensive pedigree, so you can squint and see him maybe moving off catcher and figuring out what made him such an offensive force in the minors up until two years ago.

No matter how much I squint at McGuire, he's still the fourth best catcher on the 40-man roster.

 

[Woodman19]

Maybe we don't plan for him to play catcher and hes just a pure bat project to possibly stash at DH/1B?

 

[Discoverer]

Maybe we don't plan for him to play catcher and hes just a pure bat project to possibly stash at DH/1B?

That seems almost guaranteed to me. Assuming Bird make the opening day roster, Buffalo has a whole bunch of catchers (including Moreno, who's going to start almost every day) and no 1B.

 

[BertCorbeau]

I don't care about Reese's bat. He provides ridiculous value at defense, and if we needed to trade Kirk for an upgrade I didn't mind Reese playing twice a week or taking 1/5 starters.

I also don't really care about Reese, I just don't understand why we went for this guy.

Makes you wonder what the market was for a player like McGuire particularly given that the Jays didn't have a ton of leverage in trade talks since they were in a position of DFA'ing him sooner than later.

As mentioned, I wonder if the front office saw their options and took a gamble on a big bat with hopes they can either fix his catching issues enough to see value within a year or turn him into a 1B?DH.

Management has done well with their moves overall so I'll give some some benefit of the doubt here.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Waveburner]

Maybe we don't plan for him to play catcher and hes just a pure bat project to possibly stash at DH/1B?

At first I wondered why the Jays would risk downgrading defense at catcher, but the more I think about it a couple of things seem clear.

The Jays were not planning to break camp with McGuire on the roster. Having made that choice, the only choices are releasing him for nothing or getting a lottery ticket project back. Also with the season so close to starting, I'm guessing most teams are not willing to use up an extra 40 man spot just for a defensive backup catcher like McGuire, so they had to take on someone else's bottom of the roster 40 man piece to get anything.

Also, Collins pretty clearly seems like he's not a viable catcher for a team that cares about catcher defense. However in the past he has shown significant power and a good eye at the plate. Collins would not be the first player to see their hitting take off after moving away from the demands of a defensive position he just can't handle at an acceptable Major League level. If the bat doesn't show signs of improvement you just release him from the 40 man roster and you are in the same position you would have been if you just released McGuire.

Maybe some people will disagree with the Jays plans to not keep McGuire on the roster, and that might be fair. But given the Jays likelihood of actually carrying him, this seems like a reasonable alternative.

I also think this almost guarantees Bird a spot on the roster and a decent run at the beginning of the season at DH to see if he can produce. That's probably my least favorite part of the trade as Kirk seems like a much better option at DH. But it's not an indefensible move to give Bird a short run to see if he can click at the Major League level again. I doubt it lasts long if Bird doesn't get off to a good start.

I'm still curious what they do with the final roster spot. Do they carry a super sub like Katoh, or go with an 11 man pen until we get to May? I'd almost be tempted to go with the absurdity of an 11 man pen just to keep the extra bench player away from Motoyo and his tendency to overplay the worst player on the roster.

 

[jcollins]

I agree with everything there. Not to mention with no extra spots on the 40 man you'd be looking at using someone already on there like Lopez but you'd imagine they want him playing daily

 

[Avilaj07]

To Toronto-
Jose ramirez

To Cleveland-
Kirk
Biggio
Pearson
Groshans

Is it a lot, absolutely, but a player of Ramirez pedigree, not too mention the absolute amazing fit he would be on this team, makes this trade acceptable.

Springer
Bichette
Ramirez
Guerrero
Chapman
Teo
Gurriel
Bird
Jansen

 

[Puckstuff]

I wonder if they think Moreno is going to be ready by June. Jansen/Kirk need to be given every AB. There isn’t any AB’s available for him and he’s out of options. With Moreno it’s get even crazier.

I thought they could have kept him for the 22 games in April in case of injury but who knows. Maybe McGuire asked for a trade for all we know. The guy is blocked and Chicago is a way better situation for him. I just wish we could have got an arm. Collins is better then nothing I guess.

 

[weems]

Gausman starting

 

[Morgs]

There's a point at which you should care about the bat. Jeff Mathis has always had elite defensive value, but he's also always sucked.

This isn't the kind of trade I was hoping to see for McGuire, but Collins strikes me as a much, much better fit for this team. Beyond having an option left, he's a LHH 1B/DH with some major offensive pedigree, so you can squint and see him maybe moving off catcher and figuring out what made him such an offensive force in the minors up until two years ago.

No matter how much I squint at McGuire, he's still the fourth best catcher on the 40-man roster.

Of course, but Reese paced for like 3+ WAR over a full season with no bat. For me with this team we have no real need for a catcher that can hit but not play defense. That sounds like Collins, but its also Kirk (though not nearly as bad as Collins).

Even if we assume his bat was lucky last season (I think it was), we can reasonably assume he's somewhere between a 50-75 wRC+ hitter. He's bad. Who cares? In my head he was a guy that should be basically taking one pitcher and playing 2/10 days. On those days we still have 8 very good hitters and an elite defensive 9 with a below average bat.

EDIT: I'm not mad about trading Reese, I honestly couldn't care less. I just don't understand the trade. I'll always give the benefit of the doubt to this FO as they've been overall excellent.

 

[Discoverer]

Of course, but Reese paced for like 3+ WAR over a full season with no bat. For me with this team we have no real need for a catcher that can hit but not play defense. That sounds like Collins, but its also Kirk (though not nearly as bad as Collins).

Even if we assume his bat was lucky last season (I think it was), we can reasonably assume he's somewhere between a 50-75 wRC+ hitter. He's bad. Who cares? In my head he was a guy that should be basically taking one pitcher and playing 2/10 days. On those days we still have 8 very good hitters and an elite defensive 9 with a below average bat.

I guess I just don't see nearly as much value in having your third best catcher get 20% of the playing time. I was open to moving Kirk or Jansen for the right return, but this is a solid solution as well. Even having McGuire play 1/5 would make the team worse on those days because they have two better options to catch (and, within a month once Moreno has some time in AAA, there'll be three better options).

And I don't see Collins as a bad defensive catcher... I don't see him as a catcher at all but as a guy with a big bat they're hoping can rediscover his offense by moving off of catcher. Maybe I'm wrong and they think he can still catch, but that just doesn't make sense with the makeup of the team (both in Toronto and Buffalo).

 

[kb]

Of course, but Reese paced for like 3+ WAR over a full season with no bat. For me with this team we have no real need for a catcher that can hit but not play defense. That sounds like Collins, but its also Kirk (though not nearly as bad as Collins).

Even if we assume his bat was lucky last season (I think it was), we can reasonably assume he's somewhere between a 50-75 wRC+ hitter. He's bad. Who cares? In my head he was a guy that should be basically taking one pitcher and playing 2/10 days. On those days we still have 8 very good hitters and an elite defensive 9 with a below average bat.

EDIT: I'm not mad about trading Reese, I honestly couldn't care less. I just don't understand the trade. I'll always give the benefit of the doubt to this FO as they've been overall excellent.

This front office's main weakness is it does love it's Breyvic Valera/Derek Fisher/Brandon Drury types.

One of Charlie's many weaknesses is that he loves to overplay those types.

Which.....when you look at it objectively.....means they are on the same page and Charlie was probably told to give them runway no matter what.

 

[Morgs]

I guess I just don't see nearly as much value in having your third best catcher get 20% of the playing time. I was open to moving Kirk or Jansen for the right return, but this is a solid solution as well. Even having McGuire play 1/5 would make the team worse on those days because they have two better options to catch (and, within a month once Moreno has some time in AAA, there'll be three better options).

And I don't see Collins as a bad defensive catcher... I don't see him as a catcher at all but as a guy with a big bat they're hoping can rediscover his offense by moving off of catcher. Maybe I'm wrong and they think he can still catch, but that just doesn't make sense with the makeup of the team (both in Toronto and Buffalo).

As I ninja edited, I don't really care about Reese. I just think that he was perfect for the backup role playing 20% of the time and it allowed you to include Kirk for a Reynolds/Ramirez/Marte type. His bat was lucky, and we can't expect even that level of production we got last year, but his defense is no joke. On a per PA basis his defensive value is around top-5 in the league and his bat isn't pathetic. It's bad, and will look worse when the BABIP normalizes a bit, but he's not Mathis out there.

And with Collins I don't think they'll use him at catcher either. They already seem semi-hesitant with Kirk catching and he's way, way ahead of Collins. I just think I would have preferred if you're trading a guy I see with value, you should be getting something that can help today. Collins doesn't seem like that, and even then he's 3rd in the org at 1B with the issue of having to learn a brand new position.



Who doesn't love Moneyball at 10:30 on a Monday morning.

 

[Bjindaho]

As I ninja edited, I don't really care about Reese. I just think that he was perfect for the backup role playing 20% of the time and it allowed you to include Kirk for a Reynolds/Ramirez/Marte type. His bat was lucky, and we can't expect even that level of production we got last year, but his defense is no joke. On a per PA basis his defensive value is around top-5 in the league and his bat isn't pathetic. It's bad, and will look worse when the BABIP normalizes a bit, but he's not Mathis out there.

View attachment 526385

And with Collins I don't think they'll use him at catcher either. They already seem semi-hesitant with Kirk catching and he's way, way ahead of Collins. I just think I would have preferred if you're trading a guy I see with value, you should be getting something that can help today. Collins doesn't seem like that, and even then he's 3rd in the org at 1B with the issue of having to learn a brand new position.



Who doesn't love Moneyball at 10:30 on a Monday morning.

Your vision of him and mine seem to differ a little. I see Collins headed to AAA to learn how to be a 1B/DH where if he earns a call up, it will likely be to replace Bird, if he becomes something, he could be a similar presence, etc.

We dont want 3C specifically because we want Kirk catching more. ST was his chance to prove he could do it.

Otoh, McGuire came into camp knowing there were 3C there and went 2 for 20 with 2 singles.

 

[Bjindaho]

Keep in mind that if Reese's offense was due to luck, then Trevino becomes a comparable trade (albeit with Trevino having more suitors because he was coming from a division not looking for catching).

 

[Discoverer]

As I ninja edited, I don't really care about Reese. I just think that he was perfect for the backup role playing 20% of the time and it allowed you to include Kirk for a Reynolds/Ramirez/Marte type. His bat was lucky, and we can't expect even that level of production we got last year, but his defense is no joke. On a per PA basis his defensive value is around top-5 in the league and his bat isn't pathetic. It's bad, and will look worse when the BABIP normalizes a bit, but he's not Mathis out there.

View attachment 526385

And with Collins I don't think they'll use him at catcher either. They already seem semi-hesitant with Kirk catching and he's way, way ahead of Collins. I just think I would have preferred if you're trading a guy I see with value, you should be getting something that can help today. Collins doesn't seem like that, and even then he's 3rd in the org at 1B with the issue of having to learn a brand new position.



Who doesn't love Moneyball at 10:30 on a Monday morning.

Yeah, McGuire was good last year overall. I just don't think he's actually good, and he's significantly worse than Jansen and Kirk (and Moreno, but that doesn't matter for a couple months anyway).

Obviously we disagree on how good he actually is, so we're not likely to agree on this trade. But to me the options with McGuire were either he sits on the bench and only plays in an emergency, he gets some playing time at the expense of better catchers, or he gets DFA'd/traded. I had hoped for a reliever in return, but this is fine too, and I'm not sure they could have gotten a reliever who clearly improved the team anyway.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I think this likely ends up as an absolute nothing move with both teams just shuffling pieces around. It isn't going to impact our team in a meaningful way.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[ShaneFalco]

Surprised

 

[Morgs]

Surprised

I thought he was a lock, wow. Is Collins gonna start with the team?

 

[Avilaj07]

Surprised

Only reason I can see this making any sense is if they have a deal in place for Ramirez and they want to keep that DH spot open for Biggio and Espinal

 

[hoc123]

Only reason I can see this making any sense is if they have a deal in place for Ramirez and they want to keep that DH spot open for Biggio and Espinal

I actually think the reason is quite simple, Zach Collins and Greg Bird just have too much overlap. Would rather have Collins and keep a 40 man spot open for another player.