Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt VIII: Spring approaches and less (fewer) things are happening

[Discoverer]

San Diego will come to regret this deal in a short 2-3 years. You dont hand a player that type of deal after 143 games. That is barely one season and we have seen plenty of players burst onto the scene only for the rest of the league to figure him out and he becomes a liability to the team.

Time will tell and I really hope I am wrong. But history has proven that players due tend to level off over the course of their career when teams figure them out. Kris Bryant is a prime example. Alex Rios closer to home is another. Jose Cruz Jr. is another people will remember. All players that burst onto the scene in their first season only to come down to earth later.

Handing him a 14 year commitment is plain stupid. That is my opinion.

How many players have been worth 6+ fWAR in their first full season at 20-21 years old?

 

[Discoverer]

Great deal for the Padres imo

Absolutely nothing to indicate the numbers are a fluke, elite level prospect translating those numbers at the MLB level at a premium position.



Just to counter this

Kris Bryant: if the Cubs signed him to a similar deal after 1st year they would have (per Fangraphs $ value) received $178M of value through the first five years of the deal. I don't think he's magically changed from a ~135 wRC+ player to a below league average hitter due to 147 bad plate appearances last year. There is a very fair argument in there that they got that through the traditional pre-arb/arb system and now don't need to pay him going forward (but that could change if he comes back in 2021).

Alex Rios: Slashed .273/.321/.390 in his first 1000 MLB PA's. Was in a RF platoon with Eric Hinske before the 2006 season started. Not even in the same stratosphere.

Jose Cruz Jr: Had two seasons above 110 wRC+ in his entire career (Tatis his been at 150/149 his first two years).

Now, the obvious example to me is Brett Lawrie (.293/.373/.580 in 171 PA in 2011, compared to Tatis at .301/.374/.571 in 629 career PA), but Tatis was a far higher ceiling prospect and we're still talking almost four times the PA here.

Anyways, the real loser is Acuna, since that already garbage contract looks legitimately WOAT-worthy now.

The Acuna and Tatis deals are basically at opposite ends of the spectrum as far as early extensions go. Acuna's was really bad from the start because he was very obviously worth a lot more, but I assumed there would be some kind of middle ground between that one and this one.

 

[theaub]

The only thing that surprises me about this deal is I still think (perhaps naively) that there will be a rather seismic change in MLB payroll finances/rules come the new CBA, and knowing the "strength" of the player union I don't think its going to go the way of the players. So I am a little surprised San Diego committed at this point.

 

[BlueForever75]

How many players have been worth 6+ fWAR in their first full season at 20-21 years old?

I really dont care. This will become a very irresponsible deal by the Padres. Its deals like these that will ruin the MLB. This is why a salary cap is necessary. What does a player like Bichette or Guerrero warrant if they have a breakout season at a young age. Yes maybe they havent yet in their first 143 games, but what if this season they both breakout. This deal just put them in a category on their own for future contracts.

I find it irresponsible and stupid to give a player that contract after 143 games. For the Jays sake I really hope this guy fails miserably this season so our players which will only get better will not ask for this type of contract.

6+fWAR or not at 20-21, no player is worth that money at that young age. Prove yourself over time, become a figure and mentor of this league before you get paid this way.

 

[Greek_physique]

I really dont care. This will become a very irresponsible deal by the Padres. Its deals like these that will ruin the MLB. This is why a salary cap is necessary. What does a player like Bichette or Guerrero warrant if they have a breakout season at a young age. Yes maybe they havent yet in their first 143 games, but what if this season they both breakout. This deal just put them in a category on their own for future contracts.

I find it irresponsible and stupid to give a player that contract after 143 games. For the Jays sake I really hope this guy fails miserably this season so our players which will only get better will not ask for this type of contract.

6+fWAR or not at 20-21, no player is worth that money at that young age. Prove yourself over time, become a figure and mentor of this league before you get paid this way.

Imagine if someone like E.Hinske played for the Padres after his rookie year...kid would've cashed in!

Handing out anything that large will never pan out.

 

[Discoverer]

I really dont care. This will become a very irresponsible deal by the Padres. Its deals like these that will ruin the MLB. This is why a salary cap is necessary. What does a player like Bichette or Guerrero warrant if they have a breakout season at a young age. Yes maybe they havent yet in their first 143 games, but what if this season they both breakout. This deal just put them in a category on their own for future contracts.

I find it irresponsible and stupid to give a player that contract after 143 games. For the Jays sake I really hope this guy fails miserably this season so our players which will only get better will not ask for this type of contract.

6+fWAR or not at 20-21, no player is worth that money at that young age. Prove yourself over time, become a figure and mentor of this league before you get paid this way.

That's exactly the strategy the league has been using for years in order to suppress salaries as much as possible: keep salaries low during their first few years through the pre-arb and arb system, then when they reach free agency you don't pay them full value either because you're paying for a bunch of decline years.

Right now I think this is an overpay because it's such an outlier relative to other signings, but it's still likely to work out really well for the team. And if it signals a move towards paying young players what they're worth, I'm all for it.

 

[SDig14]

Maybe there is hope yet for one more pitcher. Seems like Jays strategy might be just to allow pressure of ST to lower guys asking price. And there may be more guys than seats left so someone may just take best deal on the table and get to the ST site.

 

[BlueForever75]

Imagine if someone like E.Hinske played for the Padres after his rookie year...kid would've cashed in!

Handing out anything that large will never pan out.

My point exactly. I forgot about him. I used Rios and Cruz as examples from a Jays perspective but forgot about Hinske.

Hes a prime example of someone that burst onto the scene and looked like the real deal. Baseball is a very tricky sport. Its not hockey or football or soccer where your individual skill can make you succeed over a career. These are team sports that if they play a system or scheme against you they can shut you down. But not every team has the personnel to stop you game in and game out. Individual skill can and will take over a game.

In baseball it is one player against one player offensively. If an offensive player has a liability it will be exposed. And every player has a liability. Whether its not being able to hit off speed stuff, or the fastball, or inside or outside pitches. Regardless of the pitcher a team has enough analytics to beat the hitter. They can shift infields, they can intentionally walk a hitter.

It is much easier in baseball to make a player non-existent then it is in any sport. And to hand a player after 143 games that type of contract is just plain stupid. Trout is the best player in the game. He has earned his stripes. Earned his contract.

Not this guy. Give me a break.

 

[theaub]

People keep bringing up players in here who in their 'fluke year' were like...60% as good as Tatis is and its very confusing.

 

[Swervin81]

Not a surprise

Given that our vaccine rollout is going about as slowly as a Molina brother rounding the bases, probably looking at staying there till summertime. July at earliest. But if it extends into the summer, Dunedin will be a problem. Outdoor baseball in prime summer Florida heat/rain/hurricane season is, uhhhhh... not ideal. Might need to share the Trop (I'm puking as I type this) or something.

The deliciously hilarious part about this is that Dunedin is actually closer to the Rays' fanbase than the Trop is.

 

[Discoverer]

People keep bringing up players in here who in their 'fluke year' were like...60% as good as Tatis is and its very confusing.

And also generally a few years older.

 

[theaub]

I really dont care. This will become a very irresponsible deal by the Padres. Its deals like these that will ruin the MLB. This is why a salary cap is necessary. What does a player like Bichette or Guerrero warrant if they have a breakout season at a young age. Yes maybe they havent yet in their first 143 games, but what if this season they both breakout. This deal just put them in a category on their own for future contracts.

I find it irresponsible and stupid to give a player that contract after 143 games. For the Jays sake I really hope this guy fails miserably this season so our players which will only get better will not ask for this type of contract.

6+fWAR or not at 20-21, no player is worth that money at that young age. Prove yourself over time, become a figure and mentor of this league before you get paid this way.

I also want the best players (and therefore, the sport) to fail so billionaire owners can continue to underpay players.

Real big brain take there.

 

[BlueForever75]

People keep bringing up players in here who in their 'fluke year' were like...60% as good as Tatis is and its very confusing.

Your sitting here stating that this guy deserves more then players at his position that have proven themselves like Lindor?

 

[theaub]

Your sitting here stating that this guy deserves more then players at his position that have proven themselves like Lindor?

Considering Lindor's been worth upwards of $30M per year in every season he's played (and averaging somewhere north of $40M per 162 games), maybe he should just get paid more.

Also I assume he actually will get paid far more in AAV.

 

[Discoverer]

Your sitting here stating that this guy deserves more then players at his position that have proven themselves like Lindor?

I mean... ten years ago, who do you think deserved a bigger contract between a rookie with only one season under his belt in Mike Trout and a multi-year star veteran who had proven himself in Josh Hamilton?

 

[BlueForever75]

I also want the best players (and therefore, the sport) to fail so billionaire owners can continue to underpay players.

Real big brain take there.

All I am saying there are players in all sports that come onto the scene and have to prove their worth through an entry contract before cashing in. This guy hasnt, and its the issue with baseball. And until owners start to lose their shirts with deals like this. This league will be a joke.

All this deal does is continue to give power to the players. This isnt about underpaying players, its about making them earn their stripes. And if you can sit there and say this guy has. Then Im missing something.

 

[Discoverer]

All I am saying there are players in all sports that come onto the scene and have to prove their worth through an entry contract before cashing in. This guy hasnt, and its the issue with baseball. And until owners start to lose their shirts with deals like this. This league will be a joke.

All this deal does is continue to give power to the players. This isnt about underpaying players, its about making them earn their stripes. And if you can sit there and say this guy has. Then Im missing something.

Oh no, not giving power to the players!

The idea of players "earning their stripes" is about underpaying players.

 

[BlueForever75]

Considering Lindor's been worth upwards of $30M per year in every season he's played (and averaging somewhere north of $40M per 162 games), maybe he should just get paid more.

Also I assume he actually will get paid far more in AAV.

Lindor will get paid nothing close to what this guy is going to make over a 14 yr contract. Tatis is set for life. Lindor will be lucky to get that amount by the end of his entire playing career.

 

[BlueForever75]

Oh no, not giving power to the players!

The idea of players "earning their stripes" is about underpaying players.

It should be. Do you and I get paid based on our 14 year potential for an organization or work place?

We earn our raises and salaries based on our production.

Sorry baseball player or computer engineer, its a job.

 

[Discoverer]

It should be. Do you and I get paid based on our 14 year potential for an organization or work place?

We earn our raises and salaries based on our production.

Sorry baseball player or computer engineer, its a job.

If you were one of the best in the world at your job and you were offered a position where they were going to pay you 2% of your actual value for the first three years and then gradually start to pay you a bit more and that you wouldn't be paid your actual worth until you had been there at least 6 years and you couldn't go look for a job elsewhere because it was the only company like it... do you think that would be fair?

 

[theaub]

It should be. Do you and I get paid based on our 14 year potential for an organization or work place?

We earn our raises and salaries based on our production.

Sorry baseball player or computer engineer, its a job.

You're so close yet so far...

 

[SDig14]

 

[theaub]

Also for further reference, assuming Tatis has a flat deal (which he won't, I'll be shocked if he makes more than $10M this year), his $22.28M salary will rank him 23rd in baseball (one spot ahead of Geroge Springer).

Therefore, I would like to bring the argument to the table that, relative to his peers, Tatis would continue to be underpaid this year.

 

[Discoverer]

You're so close yet so far...

I'll just add a small caveat that was missing:

"We earn our raises and salaries based on our production... except while we're in the minors where we're paid below minimum wage regardless of our production and ability and then for the first three years in the majors where we're all paid the same small amount regardless of our production and then for the next three years where the system is specifically designed to suppress our salaries and prevent teams from actually having to pay us based on our production."

 

[ShaneFalco]