Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt VIII: Spring approaches and less (fewer) things are happening

[landy92mack29]

Or you get the 2nd best player in the game his entire prime instead of maybe losing him in 4 years

 

[Discoverer]

I was trying to think who’s gonna be the one regretting that deal in 10 years. The Padres or tatis cause he gave up so many years

Usually these deals involve the player taking a significant discount in exchange for the guaranteed money. This one doesn't. Quick math and I may be wrong, but assuming he's around the arbitration record each year, this is paying him about $28 million per free agent year.

The team is taking on ALL the risk here. It's a bit weird.

 

[canucksfan]

Not a surprise

 

[The Nemesis]

I think there's bounce back potential in Stripling. It looks like last year he got away from his slider a bit with the Dodgers. And underneath that ugly ERA there are some encouraging signs in the small Jays sample. I also agree that the Jays wouldn't have traded for him if they were only thinking on shoving him into the pen as a swing/long-man.

 

[Brock Boeser Laser Show]

Not a surprise

Nice. Now they can cash in on the Brady effect.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Discoverer]

Or you get the 2nd best player in the game his entire prime instead of maybe losing him in 4 years

Lots of teams have extended superstars through their prime without getting this close to their max value.

 

[landy92mack29]

Lots of teams have extended superstars through their prime without getting this close to their max value.

If a 26 year old Tatis hits the market he's getting 40ish

 

[Hoverhand]

in 6-8 years that's going to be an absolute steal, think about inflation folks. His AAV is under 25 million.

Also Stripling having a 6 ERA with the Jays but a 3.70 FIP is another example of how much fun the small sample size game is.

I have more faith in him than I do with Ray, Matz, and Roark and expect him to be our SP3 by years end.

 

[Discoverer]

If a 26 year old Tatis hits the market he's getting 40ish

If he doesn't struggle or get hurt, yeah. That's the risk part.

 

[phillipmike]

in 6-8 years that's going to be an absolute steal, think about inflation folks. His AAV is under 25 million.

Also Stripling having a 6 ERA with the Jays but a 3.70 FIP is another example of how much fun the small sample size game is.

I have more faith in him than I do with Ray, Matz, and Roark and except him to be our SP3 by years end.

Dont have to wait 6-8 years, its a steal now. This is a steal from now until he is say 22. It may hurt the Padres in the last 3+ years or so, but its possible that it doesnt hurt them at all.

Springer got $25M for his aged 31-36 seasons. Tatis is getting $24M for his aged 22-36 seasons. Sure there is risk on the Padres side, but there is a lot of upside.

 

[Anthrax442]

Not a surprise

I'm going to try and sneak down for a couple of games.

 

[Discoverer]

If he doesn't struggle or get hurt, yeah. That's the risk part.

And for the record, I'm not suggesting this is a bad extension. There's just no precedent for it, as other stars who signed early, long-term extensions signed for WAY less than this.

 

[Nineteen67]

I'm going to try and sneak down for a couple of games.

Stay up there....we don’t have room in the stadium.

 

[Anthrax442]

Stay up there....we don’t have room in the stadium.

pft.

 

[phillipmike]

I'm going to try and sneak down for a couple of games.

Following the strong example that our politicians set for us.

 

[phillipmike]

2021 Top 100 Prospects Chat

12:18

Cashman: are the yankees system and prospects overrated when their system produced 2 above average players in 10 years judge and severino and they are always hurt

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

12:20

Eric A Longenhagen: Nah. That’s not exactly an easy lineup to crack, their system has enabled them to trade for a bunch of guys they have right now, and I think the Rule 5 results every year are an indication that this org has pitching depth other teams really want a piece of.

[TBODY] [/TBODY]

Love this question.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I expect Stripling to be in the rotation. Never made sense to me to acquire him for what they did, not really upgrade the rotation and still have all of Roark, Matz, and Ray ahead of him. I have him 4th behind Ray.

As for that Tatis deal, there's no real discount. In San Diego's wild offseason acquisitions did they forget they get cheap years of a player at the beginning or something?

 

[Anthrax442]

Following the strong example that our politicians set for us.

Politicians lied and told everyone to sit at hoe while they vacationed. I, on the other hand, don't tell people to sit at home.

 

[phillipmike]

Politicians lied and told everyone to sit at hoe while they vacationed. I, on the other hand, don't tell people to sit at home.

Not making fun of you at all. Poking fun at the politicians and their hypocrisy.

I have no problems with you going to Florida to watch the Jays. Hope you have fun!

 

[AllDay28]

whats wild is Tatis is underpaid.

 

[phillipmike]

Top 100 Right Now: 20-11 | 02/18/2021

Jays have 6 players on MLB.com’s top 100 list;

20. George Springer
39. Hyun-Jin Ryu
57. Bo Bichette
71. Some guy who doesn’t deserve this spot
73. Marcus Semien
83. Lourdes Gurriel Jr.

Strange that a Silver Slugger, Teoscar Hernandez didn’t crack the list. Would be nice to see him and Vladdy on this list next year.

 

[Anthrax442]

Not making fun of you at all. Poking fun at the politicians and their hypocrisy.

I have no problems with you going to Florida to watch the Jays. Hope you have fun!

I wanted to go last year for Spring Training, but we all know what happened

 

[BlueForever75]

San Diego will come to regret this deal in a short 2-3 years. You dont hand a player that type of deal after 143 games. That is barely one season and we have seen plenty of players burst onto the scene only for the rest of the league to figure him out and he becomes a liability to the team.

Time will tell and I really hope I am wrong. But history has proven that players due tend to level off over the course of their career when teams figure them out. Kris Bryant is a prime example. Alex Rios closer to home is another. Jose Cruz Jr. is another people will remember. All players that burst onto the scene in their first season only to come down to earth later.

Handing him a 14 year commitment is plain stupid. That is my opinion.

 

[theaub]

Great deal for the Padres imo

Absolutely nothing to indicate the numbers are a fluke, elite level prospect translating those numbers at the MLB level at a premium position.

San Diego will come to regret this deal in a short 2-3 years. You dont hand a player that type of deal after 143 games. That is barely one season and we have seen plenty of players burst onto the scene only for the rest of the league to figure him out and he becomes a liability to the team.

Time will tell and I really hope I am wrong. But history has proven that players due tend to level off over the course of their career when teams figure them out. Kris Bryant is a prime example. Alex Rios closer to home is another. Jose Cruz Jr. is another people will remember. All players that burst onto the scene in their first season only to come down to earth later.

Handing him a 14 year commitment is plain stupid. That is my opinion.

Just to counter this

Kris Bryant: if the Cubs signed him to a similar deal after 1st year they would have (per Fangraphs $ value) received $178M of value through the first five years of the deal. I don't think he's magically changed from a ~135 wRC+ player to a below league average hitter due to 147 bad plate appearances last year. There is a very fair argument in there that they got that through the traditional pre-arb/arb system and now don't need to pay him going forward (but that could change if he comes back in 2021).

Alex Rios: Slashed .273/.321/.390 in his first 1000 MLB PA's. Was in a RF platoon with Eric Hinske before the 2006 season started. Not even in the same stratosphere (e: still my boy though, deserved way more than what he got here).

Jose Cruz Jr: Had two seasons above 110 wRC+ in his entire career (Tatis his been at 150/149 his first two years).

Now, the obvious example to me is Brett Lawrie (.293/.373/.580 in 171 PA in 2011, compared to Tatis at .301/.374/.571 in 629 career PA), but Tatis was a far higher ceiling prospect and we're still talking almost four times the PA here.

Anyways, the real loser is Acuna, since that already garbage contract looks legitimately WOAT-worthy now.