Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt VIII: Spring approaches and less (fewer) things are happening

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Hoverhand

Barry Trotzky
Dec 6, 2015
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I really dont care. This will become a very irresponsible deal by the Padres. Its deals like these that will ruin the MLB. This is why a salary cap is necessary.

Quite possibly the greatest tricks that sports owners have ever pulled was convincing the general public that A) Athletes are overpaid and B) that salary caps are put in place to make things more fair and not an extremely anti-player measure to artificially stunt their salaries.

The NBA's soft cap is mostly fine, the NFL's is a little annoying but not terrible, the NHL's hard cap is painfully regressive. The MLB could really use a cap floor but a cap ceiling would only punish the teams that actually pay a lot of players fairly like the Yankees and Dodgers.

Baseball's system is already archaic enough where players in the prime of their careers (23-26) get paid a fraction of what they are worth. The silver lining in all that was veterans usually would get overpaid later in their careers, that is becoming less likely unfortunately.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,695
8,593
Picks to Click: Who We Expect to Make the 2022 Top 100
Looks Weird, Huge Stuff
Bobby Miller, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers (EL)- full report
Drey Jameson, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks*
Jared Kelly, SP, Chicago White Sox (KG)- full report
Zack Hess, SIRP, Detroit Tigers (EL)
Alek Manoah, SP, Toronto Blue Jays*- full report
Dax Fulton, SP, Miami Marlins (EL)
JJ Goss, SP, Tampa Bay Rays (EL)- full report

EL: Several of these guys have full scouting reports on their team lists and The Board. Bobby Miller was electric in the Fall (until his last outing, which was the one I saw) and I bet some scouts would Top 100 him already if not for his longer arm action. Drey Jameson is all arm, legs, and violence but he has a nasty, deep pitch mix and might be on next year’s Top 100 where Matt Canterino and Aaron Ashby are right now. Jared Kelly is a name KG brought up for this section who I’m a little scared of because of the track record of projectionless prep arms in recent years, but his changeup is incredible and that might be enough. Speaking of changeups, as soon as Alek Manoah has one, he’ll move into the 50 FV tier. Pitchers not only typically recover from TJ but sometimes, if they have a disciplined rehab, they come back throwing harder. Dax Fulton is a candidate for that, and I thought his pre-surgery stuff played. He’s unusually athletic for his size. JJ Goss could go in this group or the “they can really pitch group” if you like.

KG: Miller has a frame built for innings and can get into the upper 90s, but the rest of the arsenal is driven more by velocity than break, and the command is spotty. It’s big stuff, but the refinement needs to come. I’m with Eric on his description of Jameson, but much of my optimism is based around just how incredibly athletic he is, which can make up for plenty of flaws. Kelly might have some bias-on-view for me, as my last look was watching him carve up some of the best hitters in the country at the Under Armor game in Chicago. I don’t share the same worries about projection, as the combination of power and precision is already very advanced for his age. I thought Manoah was the best pitcher in the 2019 draft, and frankly it wasn’t close. He would have been my breakout choice for 2020, and I’ll stick with it this season. I’m not as high as Eric is on Fulton. The surgery creates it’s usual questions, but he needs innings to convert from thrower to pitcher and I wish there was more power to his game. Goss had one of the better breaking balls in the 2019 draft, a rare thing for a prep arm, and could move quickly.

Power Relievers
Burl Carraway, MIRP, Chicago Cubs*
Lucas Gilbreath, SIRP, Colorado Rockies (EL)
Brandon Williamson, MIRP, Seattle Mariners (EL)
Demarcus Evans, SIRP, Texas Rangers (EL)
Julian Merryweather, SIRP, Toronto Blue Jays (EL)- full report
Ryne Nelson, SIRP, Arizona Diamondbacks (KG)
Will Vest, SIRP, Seattle Mariners (EL)
Zach Pop, SIRP, Miami Marlins (EL)

KG: Burl Carraway has some of the best TrackMan/HawkEye data on the planet. It’s an exceptionally vertical attack with a massively rising fastball and ultra-deep breaker. Some command refinements and proving he can land his curveball in the zone could lead to a very short minor league career. Lucas Gilbreath is a hell of a deep cut from Eric, as he’s never had an ERA below five at any level, but scouts have always seen him as a reliever, and now that the Rockies look like they are moving him to that role, the plus-plus velocity has a chance to shine. I personally scouted Brandon Williamson in his draft year as a pop-up JUCO transfer at TCU with big stuff, and walked away impressed. His fastball checked all the boxes in terms of both velocity and shape, and there’s potential for a plus breaker as well. He could move quickly as a reliever, but I don’t think Seattle should rule out a future in the rotation just yet.
Demarcus Evans is a wide-bodied pure ‘pen arm, and while his mid-90s velo is merely good, in checks a lot of boxes in terms of spin and life. He’ll need to throw more strikes to avoid a career spent frustrating pitching coaches. Julian Merryweather provided his share of frustrations as a starter with his stuff never quite turning into performance, but he suddenly shined in a bullpen role with an upper-90s fastball and a velocity-driven slider that I think he should throw more of. Ryne Nelson has phenomenal stuff and incredible bouts of inconsistency. He couldn’t establish himself as a starter in college, and Arizona should stop trying and just let the upper-90s heater and devastating power breaker play up in short stints. Will Vest is a Rule 5 pick to watch thanks to upper-90s heat and a very impressive changeup, but a quick jump to the big league might be a bit too much for him. I want Zach Pop in the big leagues based on name alone, but I have trouble seeing him getting into a Top 100. Despite the big velocity, he’s more of a weak-contact producer than a pure bat missed, so it’s hard to see him in an end-of-game role.

EL: Carraway could be a lefty version of James Karinchak. Gilbreath was 95-97 with big life in the Fall of 2020 and Colorado had to 40-man him. If he holds that next year, he’ll be their eighth or ninth inning guy by mid-summer. Williamson had trouble holding his stuff deep into games the few times I saw him at TCU, but both of his breaking balls are really good, and I think his repertoire depth will allow him to get four to six outs at a time. Evans and Merryweather both have big fastball life. Merryweather’s secondaries are much better, but he’s older and has been hurt a ton. Evans pulled a lat over the winter and will start camp late, per Levi Weaver of The Athletic. Vest had a big 2019 and then showed up to 2020 instructs with way more velocity. He and Pop, who is coming off injury, were both Rule 5 picks.
 

BlueForever75

Registered User
Oct 4, 2017
5,691
2,303
Quite possibly the greatest tricks that sports owners have ever pulled was convincing the general public that A) Athletes are overpaid and B) that salary caps are put in place to make things more fair and not an extremely anti-player measure to artificially stunt their salaries.

The NBA's soft cap is mostly fine, the NFL's is a little annoying but not terrible, the NHL's hard cap is painfully regressive. The MLB could really use a cap floor but a cap ceiling would only punish the teams that actually pay a lot of players fairly like the Yankees and Dodgers.

Baseball's system is already archaic enough where players in the prime of their careers (23-26) get paid a fraction of what they are worth. The silver lining in all that was veterans usually would get overpaid later in their careers, that is becoming less likely unfortunately.

Baseball is also the worst when it comes to salaries and the bloating of contracts. Sorry I would rather have the NBA, NFL and NHL rules where contracts are controlled. Where any given year a new team can win a championship. Not like MLB where it is the same teams every year dishing out these ludicrous contracts and tops in their divisions, in post season.

Very rare that a team like the Dodgers or Yankees are not in the post season unless the world crumbles all around them.

I wonder what would happen in MLB if there was a 180 million salary cap for each team along with a floor of 90 million. Will the Dodgers and Yankees be in playoffs every year? Will we be seeing a contract like Tatis that is fully guaranteed happening?

Maybe if there was a cap of some sort, teams would have the money to pay players in the minors a bit more! With a cap the players will still be able to make there money. Like in other sports. We just wont see these contracts being thrown around like they are nothing. Maybe a pitcher wont and cant ask for 40 million a season to pitch in one fifth of the games!

Sorry baseball has gotten stupid, and will continue to unless a cap is put in place.
 

Puckstuff

Registered User
May 12, 2010
11,353
3,566
Milton
1. Biggio (L)
2. Springer
3. Bichette
4. Tellez (L)
5. Hernandez
6. Gurriel Jr.
7. Gurrerro Jr.
8. Semien
9. Jansen
 

theaub

34-38-61-10-13-15
Nov 21, 2008
18,886
1,977
Toronto
Baseball is also the worst when it comes to salaries and the bloating of contracts. Sorry I would rather have the NBA, NFL and NHL rules where contracts are controlled. Where any given year a new team can win a championship. Not like MLB where it is the same teams every year dishing out these ludicrous contracts and tops in their divisions, in post season.

I mean this is just blatantly untrue. Baseball is the only North American professional sport where labour spend has decreased as a percentage of league revenue in the last decade, and by a significant margin. Also the last seven World Series have been won by seven different teams. 25 different MLB teams won their respective divisions in the 2010's, which is more than any of the NFL/NHL/NBA. Only the White Sox and Seattle did not appear in the Divisional Series.

Very rare that a team like the Dodgers or Yankees are not in the post season unless the world crumbles all around them.

While teams spending money should not be seen as a negative in the first place, it should still be pointed out that the Dodgers and Yankees have combined for a grand total of 2 titles this millennium. The Yankees and Dodgers are certainly better than the average team, but New York went four straight years without making the playoffs proper and the Dodgers were literally bankrupt last decade.

I wonder what would happen in MLB if there was a 180 million salary cap for each team along with a floor of 90 million. Will the Dodgers and Yankees be in playoffs every year? Will we be seeing a contract like Tatis that is fully guaranteed happening?

Owners will make more money is the answer you're looking for, I assume.

Maybe if there was a cap of some sort, teams would have the money to pay players in the minors a bit more!

This is just an abhorrent boot-licking sentence. The idea that players are responsible for owners not paying minor league players a living wage is nothing short of reprehensible.

With a cap the players will still be able to make there money. Like in other sports. We just wont see these contracts being thrown around like they are nothing. Maybe a pitcher wont and cant ask for 40 million a season to pitch in one fifth of the games!

Sorry baseball has gotten stupid, and will continue to unless a cap is put in place.

Refer to my above comment, wherein player salaries have been stagnant the last 10 years while revenues have skyrocketed. I just don't understand where the idea that MLB owners are reckless spenders compared to other North American sports comes from...
 

Hoverhand

Barry Trotzky
Dec 6, 2015
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Ontario
I like the idea of giving Gurriel a lot of reps at third, his arm is better than Biggio's. Hopefully this would mean moving Biggio to left and not forcing Grichuk back in the lineup

Thats dumb if Semien isnt an option at 3B and we are planning on using Gurriel and/or Vladdy as the primary backup 3B.
the fact that he isnt even taking reps at 3rd makes me even more confident that he made it clear he wasn't willing to play third before he signed his contract. It's super annoying but I get it, he doesn't want to play his worst position in a contract year especially with more front offices paying attention to stats like WAR that put a lot of stake in your defensive performances.
 
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phillipmike

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Oct 27, 2009
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Don't give him any ideas

Its my unsubstantiated thought but i think if Montoyo doesnt impress, the Jays let him walk.

Montoyo's contract expires after this season. Jays have a club option.

Terry Francona is a free agent after the 2022 season. I wonder if he doesnt want to be part of their retool and Cleveland finally gives Sandy a chance. Perhaps Shapiro brings his old friend Francona to the Jays in the off-season. We could compensate the Indians by trading for Francona. Would cost us an AAAA arm.
 

stickty111

Registered User
Jan 23, 2017
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Its my unsubstantiated thought but i think if Montoyo doesnt impress, the Jays let him walk.

Montoyo's contract expires after this season. Jays have a club option.

Terry Francona is a free agent after the 2022 season. I wonder if he doesnt want to be part of their retool and Cleveland finally gives Sandy a chance. Perhaps Shapiro brings his old friend Francona to the Jays in the off-season. We could compensate the Indians by trading for Francona. Would cost us an AAAA arm.
Oh I would be all over Francona if Montoyo doesn't meet expectations. I might be wrong but I think the Jays had interest in him either in the beginning of Shapiro/Atkins tenure which makes sense. Familiarity and a great manager.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
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Oh I would be all over Francona if Montoyo doesn't meet expectations. I might be wrong but I think the Jays had interest in him either in the beginning of Shapiro/Atkins tenure which makes sense. Familiarity and a great manager.

For this Jays team to win a WS, i think they have to move off Montoyo. He likely will land somewhere and do better but i just dont see him working here.

Francona might be a good fit, at least better than Montoyo. Also thought Francona was older because he has been around the game so long but he is only 61. Montoyo isnt that much younger at 55. Maddon is the oldest at 65. Gibby is still only 58, im still holding out hope he gets his 3rd go at it like Gaston. Heck i would take Gaston's 4th go - Gaston is only 76.
 

Discoverer

Registered User
Apr 11, 2012
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For this Jays team to win a WS, i think they have to move off Montoyo. He likely will land somewhere and do better but i just dont see him working here.

Francona might be a good fit, at least better than Montoyo. Also thought Francona was older because he has been around the game so long but he is only 61. Montoyo isnt that much younger at 55. Maddon is the oldest at 65. Gibby is still only 58, im still holding out hope he gets his 3rd go at it like Gaston. Heck i would take Gaston's 4th go - Gaston is only 76.

The Royals won with Ned Yost, so anything can happen!
 

The Nemesis

Semper Tyrannus
Apr 11, 2005
89,250
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Its my unsubstantiated thought but i think if Montoyo doesnt impress, the Jays let him walk.

Montoyo's contract expires after this season. Jays have a club option.

Terry Francona is a free agent after the 2022 season. I wonder if he doesnt want to be part of their retool and Cleveland finally gives Sandy a chance. Perhaps Shapiro brings his old friend Francona to the Jays in the off-season. We could compensate the Indians by trading for Francona. Would cost us an AAAA arm.

I've never felt like Montoyo was the guy that management wanted. He was the guy they took when they couldn't get permission/interviews with the guys they actually wanted.
 

Hoverhand

Barry Trotzky
Dec 6, 2015
2,411
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Ontario
For this Jays team to win a WS, i think they have to move off Montoyo. He likely will land somewhere and do better but i just dont see him working here.

Francona might be a good fit, at least better than Montoyo. Also thought Francona was older because he has been around the game so long but he is only 61. Montoyo isnt that much younger at 55. Maddon is the oldest at 65. Gibby is still only 58, im still holding out hope he gets his 3rd go at it like Gaston. Heck i would take Gaston's 4th go - Gaston is only 76.
I thought the White Sox firing Rick Renteria to get a world series caliber manager was such a smart move to make and I really hope we go that route with Montoya -> Francona . Now, I think hiring La Russa instead of Hinch was a bit of a blunder but I still like the spirit of it.
 

phillipmike

Registered User
Oct 27, 2009
12,695
8,593
The Royals won with Ned Yost, so anything can happen!

If the Jays win the WS with Montoyo as the Manager, i will buy a Montoyo jersey.

Keep in mind, i only ever owned one sports jersey, a black Jays Halladay spring training jersey.
 
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