Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt IV | Ah the waiting game sucks, let's play Hungry Hungry Hippos

[Canada4Gold]

I take back everything I've said about LaMahieu. If you can be top 5 in MVP voting in a year you were a below average hitter you must be doing something right

Edit: He was also elite in Colorado despite being a below average hitter for 6 of his 7 Colorado years. I did not realize how amazing he actually was and I apologize for my misleading posts earlier.

 

[BlueForever75]

And they can address the hole in the infield with players like didi after signing springer. There are options

I like your idea, but Im not sold that Springer is coming. So there lies the issue.

If there were an elite free agent that was there for the taking and we actually had a chance. It was LaMahieu. Thats my concern.

 

[BlueForever75]

Jays sitting at roughly 76.5M for 2021.

Commitments for 2022 sits at 34M.

This team is going to add players of impact and a lot of payroll before opening day.

I really hope you are right.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I like your idea, but Im not sold that Springer is coming. So there lies the issue.

If there were an elite free agent that was there for the taking and we actually had a chance. It was LaMahieu. Thats my concern.

I mean your concern is kind of odd because I am pretty sure before DJ ever hit free agency it was pretty common knowledge to....well everyone that his number one goal was to get back to New York. Springer was always the more realistic target and honestly with the way the market is playing out looks more realistic by the day. It sounds like you got your hopes up and just had them come crashing down.

 

[Discoverer]

The yanks have the ability to bury money like this. Think of us with the Tulo contract. They’ll just pay him to not play. It keeps them well under the luxury tax this year which means they can spend more if they want. The value is in the length.

The Yankees still have this reputation, but... it's not really true anymore. If they have dead money on the books, it reduces the amount they can spend elsewhere. They won't just spend indiscriminately like they used to; they haven't increased payroll in 15 years now, and they seem to want to adhere pretty closely to the luxury tax.

It definitely helps them for this year - there's no disputing that. But in 2026 (!) they now have $73 million committed towards the luxury tax for three guys who will be 35, 36, and 37.

That's far enough out that they don't have to worry about it for quite a while, but there are definitely negative consequences to structing a deal like this.

 

[Morgs]

DJLM would have been nice, but I really don't think it's a loss assuming we still find a way to get some improvements elsewhere.

I've never been sold that his bat would translate, and I never thought he would leave the yankees without an absurd overpay.

 

[ER89]

comon trades

 

[phillipmike]

 

[TopChedder]

Great reporting lol it's only been the same msg for how many months?

 

[TopChedder]

The Yankees still have this reputation, but... it's not really true anymore. If they have dead money on the books, it reduces the amount they can spend elsewhere. They won't just spend indiscriminately like they used to; they haven't increased payroll in 15 years now, and they seem to want to adhere pretty closely to the luxury tax.

It definitely helps them for this year - there's no disputing that. But in 2026 (!) they now have $73 million committed towards the luxury tax for three guys who will be 35, 36, and 37.

That's far enough out that they don't have to worry about it for quite a while, but there are definitely negative consequences to structing a deal like this.

The Jay's are richer than the Yanks.

Yanks just never cared about spending and we have been super duper cheap quite often.

 

[TopChedder]

I don't get this fascination with being "runner up" what always separates teams like Giants, Yanks, and Sox from us is they just make it happen.

Player: I want this much

Team: Done and welcome.

Just give Springer what he wants. We are the second wealthiest owners in baseball (Mets first) if Springer wants 150 million and you offer let's say 125 million, just give the man 150 million because you WANT HIM.

It just makes no sense. I get it you are trading and don't want to give up pieces, but this is a free agent. Something doesn't add up.

I get being fiscally responsible somewhat and planning for the future, but they have the flexibility to do this right now.

 

[Canada4Gold]

Bautista: "I want 5 years, 150 million"

Jays "Done and welcome back"

EE: "I want 5 years, 150 million"

Jays "Done and welcome back"

Fowler "I want 6 years, 120 million"

Jays "Done and welcome"

Price "I want 7 years 210 million"

"Done and welcome back"

Bichette "I want..."

Jays "We can't afford to retain any of our young players into their free agent years because we've spent 110 million on 4 bottom of the roster players sorry"

Springer "I..."

Jays "If you're a free agent and want more than 2 million don't even bother calling, we can't afford it anymore"

Fans "Why are you capping your budget at 180 million Rogers, you can afford 300 million so sign Springer, Bauer, Realmuto, and LaMahieu too"

 

[Hoverhand]

There's a lot of interesting science behind how the altitude change hurts Rockies players on the road which would explain his sharp decline on the road during his Rockies years. This is also why Larry Walker not getting all those years because of Coors was absurd but that's a convo for another day. When it comes to his home/away splits with the Yankees, it never worried me that much from our point of view because signing in Toronto still keeps in the hitter friendly AL East.

 

[TopChedder]

Bautista: "I want 5 years, 150 million"

Jays "Done and welcome back"

EE: "I want 5 years, 150 million"

Jays "Done and welcome back"

Fowler "I want 6 years, 120 million"

Jays "Done and welcome"

Price "I want 7 years 210 million"

"Done and welcome back"

Bichette "I want..."

Jays "We can't afford to retain any of our young players into their free agent years because we've spent 110 million on 4 bottom of the roster players sorry"

Springer "I..."

Jays "If you're a free agent and want more than 2 million don't even bother calling, we can't afford it anymore"

Fans "Why are you capping your budget at 180 million Rogers, you can afford 300 million so sign Springer, Bauer, Realmuto, and LaMahieu too"

I am NOT saying be fiscally stupid. There are OBVIOUS players that are not worth what they want.

My point was we identified Springer as our target and his production and defense will make us a way better team.

Spend the damn money. This is not hard.

 

[Discoverer]

I don't get this fascination with being "runner up" what always separates teams like Giants, Yanks, and Sox from us is they just make it happen.

Player: I want this much

Team: Done and welcome.

Just give Springer what he wants. We are the second wealthiest owners in baseball (Mets first) if Springer wants 150 million and you offer let's say 125 million, just give the man 150 million because you WANT HIM.

It just makes no sense. I get it you are trading and don't want to give up pieces, but this is a free agent. Something doesn't add up.

I get being fiscally responsible somewhat and planning for the future, but they have the flexibility to do this right now.

As management, every dollar you spend is a dollar you can't spend elsewhere (unless ownership is just going to increase payroll over and over no matter what, which isn't the case for any team in the league). Giving Springer an extra $5 million because it's what he wants affects their ability to address other holes in the roster.

I mean... the Yankees just spent three months negotiating with LeMahieu before signing him.

 

[Hoverhand]

EE: "I want 5 years, 150 million"

Jays "Done and welcome back"

Price "I want 7 years 210 million"

"Done and welcome back"

The vast majority of people were more upset at Edwin for completely whiffing on his market projections and signing a worse deal elsewhere. Although there was some frustration that they moved so quickly to sign his replacement for 3/30 who couldn't play the field and hadn't been a 3 war player since 2009.

As for Price, Shapiro/Atkins did not make an offer to retain his services iirc. Which I do believe fans had a right to be upset about.

The final thing here is that if the Jays had of made just one of these mistakes their salary situation would not have been out of sorts whatsoever, especially not enough to the point where Rogers lets them lose their young talent over it.

 

[Canada4Gold]

I am NOT saying be fiscally stupid. There are OBVIOUS players that are not worth what they want.

My point was we identified Springer as our target and his production and defense will make us a way better team.

Spend the damn money. This is not hard.

and the Jays have identified what they think these players are worth. What's the issue here? That we as fans want shiny new things to be excited about so we can't properly evaluate their worth?

There were tons of people wanting Fowler the same way we want Springer right now. I was one of them, and I've got no issue saying I was wrong. I also want Springer. I also could end up being wrong. I can understand why someone would set a line on what they think they're worth. Fowler is only obviously not worth what he got in hindsight. His numbers prior to signing were better than LaMahieu's on average(DJ has had a higher peak performance).

Fans want them to spend the damn money every offseason. Once you do it it affects your ability to spend the damn money in future offseasons so you have to be smart about it. I'm not saying don't spend the damn money, I'm just being reasonable and understanding that you don't just go to whatever it takes without regard because you probably will regret those decisions down the line unless your strategy is always going to be spends more money regardless of what you're currently spending.

 

[TopChedder]

As management, every dollar you spend is a dollar you can't spend elsewhere (unless ownership is just going to increase payroll over and over no matter what, which isn't the case for any team in the league). Giving Springer an extra $5 million because it's what he wants affects their ability to address other holes in the roster.

I mean... the Yankees just spent three months negotiating with LeMahieu before signing him.

I get this. I work as an accountant helping corporations do just that. This is not about just spending money to spend it, this is about identifying a hole and need. Springer makes us better and sells a lot of merchandise while he is doing his thing.

As far as on field product goes, if by paying him extra $$$ this takes away from another young player or puts you into a tax situation, you would hope that Springer makes up for whoever or whatever we could potentially lose. Sometimes you just need to go for it and win.

This also shows your team you believe in them and want to win! This also attracts other free agents. There is a time and place to spend.

 

[Canada4Gold]

The vast majority of people were more upset at Edwin for completely whiffing on his market projections and signing a worse deal elsewhere. Although there was some frustration that they moved so quickly to sign his replacement for 3/30 who couldn't play the field and hadn't been a 3 war player since 2009.

As for Price, Shapiro/Atkins did not make an offer to retain his services iirc. Which I do believe fans had a right to be upset about.

The final thing here is that if the Jays had of made just one of these mistakes their salary situation would not have been out of sorts whatsoever, especially not enough to the point where Rogers lets them lose their young talent over it.

The point is you have to consider the impact of your decisions. Sometimes that will be correct, sometimes it'll probably be wrong. That guys solution was to just give the player what he wants without regard. That doesn't sound like a strategy that'll make him happy after the first failure. It's something that's going to be yelled every offseason.

I want additions. But there's a valuation line that is made on every player, as there should be.

 

[Hoverhand]

A perfect gamble opportunity. The Jays dont have a lot on their books this year even if they pull the trigger on Springer.

Overpay him and maybe you get a top of the rotation arm.

 

[TopChedder]

and the Jays have identified what they think these players are worth. What's the issue here? That we as fans want shiny new things to be excited about so we can't properly evaluate their worth?

There were tons of people wanting Fowler the same way we want Springer right now. I was one of them, and I've got no issue saying I was wrong. I also want Springer. I also could end up being wrong. I can understand why someone would set a line on what they think they're worth. Fowler is only obviously not worth what he got in hindsight. His numbers prior to signing were better than LaMahieu's on average(DJ has had a higher peak performance).

Fans want them to spend the damn money every offseason. Once you do it it affects your ability to spend the damn money in future offseasons so you have to be smart about it. I'm not saying don't spend the damn money, I'm just being reasonable and understanding that you don't just go to whatever it takes without regard because you probably will regret those decisions down the line unless your strategy is always going to be spends more money regardless of what you're currently spending.

I share parts of the same viewpoint. My post below explains what I mean.

But sometimes you just need to go for it and try to win (again I don't mean at all costs) or we will sit back and watch teams like the Sox, Dodgers, Yanks, and so on win or for the most part always be competitive.

 

[dredeye]

The Yankees still have this reputation, but... it's not really true anymore. If they have dead money on the books, it reduces the amount they can spend elsewhere. They won't just spend indiscriminately like they used to; they haven't increased payroll in 15 years now, and they seem to want to adhere pretty closely to the luxury tax.

It definitely helps them for this year - there's no disputing that. But in 2026 (!) they now have $73 million committed towards the luxury tax for three guys who will be 35, 36, and 37.

That's far enough out that they don't have to worry about it for quite a while, but there are definitely negative consequences to structing a deal like this.

I’m not saying it’s Wise to plan to bury money and that likely isn’t their plan. But 15 million is easier to hide over maybe a couple years and that’s if he isn’t any good at that point. But there’s also a window they are in at the moment. DJ likely moves to DH for the last couple of years for that contract. I’m sure he’ll play it all out but if he doesn’t that money isn’t brutal for them. That term is a positive for them

 

[Discoverer]

As far as on field product goes, if by paying him extra $$$ this takes away from another young player or puts you into a tax situation, you would hope that Springer makes up for whoever or whatever we could potentially lose.

This doesn't make sense. We're not talking about signing Springer vs. not signing Springer. We're talking about signing Springer for $25 million per year vs. signing Springer for $30 million per year (or something in between). There's nothing for Springer to "make up for"; you either have Springer, or you have Springer and another $5 million to spend.

 

[TopChedder]

The point is you have to consider the impact of your decisions. Sometimes that will be correct, sometimes it'll probably be wrong. That guys solution was to just give the player what he wants without regard. That doesn't sound like a strategy that'll make him happy after the first failure. It's something that's going to be yelled every offseason.

I want additions. But there's a valuation line that is made on every player, as there should be.

Yes I agree.

But there is a time and place to go for it (I feel I have to keep saying WITHIN REASON)

We can't always be runners up (Ryu excluded) life is about winning some and losing some, but you have to go for it sometimes.

 

[TopChedder]

This doesn't make sense. We're not talking about signing Springer vs. not signing Springer. We're talking about signing Springer for $25 million per year vs. signing Springer for $30 million per year (or something in between). There's nothing for Springer to "make up for"; you either have Springer, or you have Springer and another $5 million to spend.

I meant if we lost somebody because we spent more elsewhere.

Or you could have 30 million and not have Springer and be worse, but you still have your 30 million to add smaller pieces that will not move the needle as much as Springer would have.

All because you wanted to save an extra 5 million.

Listen. I get what you are saying. Fiscal responsibility is important. What a players worth needs to be calculated into the team needs going forward, and league economics.

But sometimes spend that extra 5 million.