Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt IV | Ah the waiting game sucks, let's play Hungry Hungry Hippos

[OVO16]

George Springer will be a Blue Jay

 

[BlueForever75]

Shapiro needs to hold true to his word. The possibility of adding 2 elite players is diminishing with losing out (coming 2nd) in Lindor and LeMahieu sweepstakes. That leaves the following:

Elite - Springer, Realmuto, Bauer, Hand, Bryant (trade), Castillo (trade), Arenado (trade), Story (trade)

As for 4 very good players, the list is comprised of:

Turner, Bradley, Brantley, Oriduzzi, Tanaka, Didi, Siemen, Ozuna, Musgrove (trade), Paxton, Kluber, Walker

Anyone outside of these lists arent considered very good or elite and would be considered a fail. Any combination of both lists would be deemed successful.

My preference would be Realmuto, Walker while dealing with the Cubs for Bryant with excess catching depth and other prospects. If it is true that the Cubs are unloading Contreras then a deal surrounding Jansen and prospects may work.

 

[Maplebeasts]

Shapiro needs to hold true to his word. The possibility of adding 2 elite players is diminishing with losing out (coming 2nd) in Lindor and LeMahieu sweepstakes. That leaves the following:

Elite - Springer, Realmuto, Bauer, Hand, Bryant (trade), Castillo (trade), Arenado (trade), Story (trade)

As for 4 very good players, the list is comprised of:

Turner, Bradley, Brantley, Oriduzzi, Tanaka, Didi, Siemen, Ozuna, Musgrove (trade), Paxton, Kluber, Walker

Anyone outside of these lists arent considered very good or elite and would be considered a fail. Any combination of both lists would be deemed successful.

My preference would be Realmuto, Walker while dealing with the Cubs for Bryant with excess catching depth and other prospects. If it is true that the Cubs are unloading Contreras then a deal surrounding Jansen and prospects may work.

Hand looks like he is going to the Mets. I would also like to avoid Semien and Brantley in favour of the other options on your very good list.

 

[Canada4Gold]

He was not a league average player until he was 30, I know you all don't like Zeke's arguing style but let's all try to be in good faith here.

LeMahieu started winning gold gloves at 25 and started making all star games at 26. He's one of the best hitters in baseball and the Jays would have zero issue getting a ton of value out of him if they upped the Yankees offer.

Zeke isn't totally incorrect here people, I just think the anger should be pointed at Rogers instead of the figureheads they put in place. The Jays beat the Yankees in attendance in 2016(2015? Maybe) and broke Canadian viewership records with Game 5 against the Rangers, yet they stripped the team down (somewhat justifiably) and hired a small market president and GM to take us through a rebuild that shouldn't have been as long as it was. Frankly, I have no idea whether it's Rogers keeping them in line or from the beginning Shapiro got the job on a promise that he could penny pinch in most spots and still build a championship level team.

I won't be too upset unless we miss out on Springer, that's where I'm drawing the line. Im just requesting as a thread we stop acting like getting the best 2 hole hitter we've had since Alomar wouldn't have been worth like 5/90? We're a big market team that can afford to take on big risks like that, whether Rogers wants you to believe that or not.

I don't really have a side in this argument, but prior to turning 30 he had just 1 year above a league average hitter. That was 2016 where he had a wRC+ of 130 which is very very good. 100 is league average. His other 7 years prior to turning 30 were 44, 81, 67, 66, 91, 94, and 87, the last 2 of which came after the 130 year. I won't comment on the defensive side of things as I'm not as well versed in those stats, but I don't think it's unfair to be a little skeptical in LaMahieu. Especially given the Home/Away splits, 256/98 in 2020, and 156/116 in 2019 his 2 years as a Yankee, and 151/101 his 1 above average year as a Rockie.

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Discoverer]

He was not a league average player until he was 30, I know you all don't like Zeke's arguing style but let's all try to be in good faith here.

LeMahieu started winning gold gloves at 25 and started making all star games at 26. He's one of the best hitters in baseball and the Jays would have zero issue getting a ton of value out of him if they upped the Yankees offer.

Zeke isn't totally incorrect here people, I just think the anger should be pointed at Rogers instead of the figureheads they put in place. The Jays beat the Yankees in attendance in 2016(2015? Maybe) and broke Canadian viewership records with Game 5 against the Rangers, yet they stripped the team down (somewhat justifiably) and hired a small market president and GM to take us through a rebuild that shouldn't have been as long as it was. Frankly, I have no idea whether it's Rogers keeping them in line or from the beginning Shapiro got the job on a promise that he could penny pinch in most spots and still build a championship level team.

I won't be too upset unless we miss out on Springer, that's where I'm drawing the line. Im just requesting as a thread we stop acting like getting the best 2 hole hitter we've had since Alomar wouldn't have been worth like 5/90? We're a big market team that can afford to take on big risks like that, whether Rogers wants you to believe that or not.

LeMahieu was worth 4.4 fWAR and had a 130 wRC+ in 2016. Outside of that, his three best seasons in Colorado were worth 2.1, 2.0, and 1.9 fWAR and a 94, 91, and 87 wRC+. Before joining the Yankees, he was the epitome of a league average player, though yes, he had one standout season a few years before.

And if you don't look at his splits since joining the Yankees (183 wRC+ at home, 112 wRC+ on the road) and at least wonder how good a hitter he would actually be going forward and whether you're willing to allocate $90 million through his mid-30s, then I don't know what to tell you.

And holy shit with the "if you're ok with not signing this specific player then you support Rogers keeping payroll low" stuff. What the hell is that? Rogers is terrible and payroll should be way higher... I don't think you'll find anyone who doesn't believe that. How much I like DJ LeMahieu and this contract relative to other available options has nothing to do with that. I would rather see them give Springer close to $150 million than give LeMahieu this contract. Hell, I would rather see them take a chance on a Kris Bryant bounceback, or try to swing a big deal with the Reds, or sign Turner to a shorter-term deal.

 

[metafour]

I don't really have a side in this argument, but prior to turning 30 he had just 1 year above a league average hitter. That was 2016 where he had a wRC+ of 130 which is very very good. 100 is league average. His other 7 years prior to turning 30 were 44, 81, 67, 66, 91, 94, and 87, the last 2 of which came after the 130 year. I won't comment on the defensive side of things as I'm not as well versed in those stats, but I don't think it's unfair to be a little skeptical in LaMahieu. Especially given the Home/Away splits, 256/98 in 2020, and 156/116 in 2019 his 2 years as a Yankee, and 151/101 his 1 above average year as a Rockie.

Exactly.

It's a very reasonable question mark. He's only had 3 "elite" hitting seasons in his career and all three came with massive home/road splits. The entirety of his career is to be viewed under the Coors Field/Yankee Stadium tint of glasses, which means that its very difficult to conclude that he is guaranteed to hit anywhere near the level he has hit the last two seasons. He has seen a big spike in his power output (which is what is driving his surge in hitting) but that power also scales down away from Yankee Stadium. Also, his defense has declined the past two years as you'd expect out a middle infielder his age.

There's a reason why the Dodgers offer was 4/60 mill. It's not a guarantee that he's an elite player for much longer, if at all. He's certainly a good hitter, but lets also understand that we're not talking about a guy with year after year of elite offensive output.

 

[TopChedder]

Exactly.

It's a very reasonable question mark. He's only had 3 "elite" hitting seasons in his career and all three came with massive home/road splits. The entirety of his career is to be viewed under the Coors Field/Yankee Stadium tint of glasses, which means that its very difficult to conclude that he is guaranteed to hit anywhere near the level he has hit the last two seasons. He has seen a big spike in his power output (which is what is driving his surge in hitting) but that power also scales down away from Yankee Stadium. Also, his defense has declined the past two years as you'd expect out a middle infielder his age.

There's a reason why the Dodgers offer was 4/60 mill. It's not a guarantee that he's an elite player for much longer, if at all. He's certainly a good hitter, but lets also understand that we're not talking about a guy with year after year of elite offensive output.

I agree fully with this. He will be almost 39 at the end of that contract and with Stanton still on the team it will be hell for the Yanks. Hope they win next year or the year after because sustained success will be tough payroll wise.

Now that doesn't mean he would not have helped us this year and potentially next, but 6 years YUCK!

What Roger's needs to do is just give Springer what he wants and fix pitching going forward. They need to stop waiting and just flex the damn financial muscle we know they have.

 

[TopChedder]

George Springer will be a Blue Jay

I honestly feel the same way. Especially if the Mets sign Hand.

 

[BlueForever75]

I agree fully with this. He will be almost 39 at the end of that contract and with Stanton still on the team it will be hell for the Yanks. Hope they win next year or the year after because sustained success will be tough payroll wise.

Now that doesn't mean he would not have helped us this year and potentially next, but 6 years YUCK!

What Roger's needs to do is just give Springer what he wants and fix pitching going forward. They need to stop waiting and just flex the damn financial muscle we know they have.

I would have easily signed LeMahieu for 4 years at the same money he signed with the Yankees. He would have done wonders in our lineup during that time. He is not a 15 million dollar player compared to others. He definitely is worth 20+ when you consider his production the past couple of seasons.

Bad on Jays for not offering that. An everyday player is worth at least what we agreed to pay Ryu who pitches every 5th day and has a history of injuries. If they were willing to do that they should have done this deal with LeMahieu. If it is true that they have offered 110 million over 5 years to Springer, LeMathieu is worth that average as well. To me he is a better player.

 

[dredeye]

Lemahieu at 6yrs 90 is a pretty good spread out of dollars for the yanks

 

[dredeye]

I would have easily signed LeMahieu for 4 years at the same money he signed with the Yankees. He would have done wonders in our lineup during that time. He is not a 15 million dollar player compared to others. He definitely is worth 20+ when you consider his production the past couple of seasons.

Bad on Jays for not offering that. An everyday player is worth at least what we agreed to pay Ryu who pitches every 5th day and has a history of injuries. If they were willing to do that they should have done this deal with LeMahieu. If it is true that they have offered 110 million over 5 years to Springer, LeMathieu is worth that average as well. To me he is a better player.

How do you know the jays didn’t offer that or better? I hate these comments that speak like the fact was they didn’t make a strong offer. He always wanted to be a Yank. He may have leverage what we proposed to the yanks and that’s how they came to terms.

 

[BlueForever75]

Looks like a big guy, my assumption is he has power? Looks like a Rios type of prospect from back in the day. Anyone know anything about this guy.

 

[TopChedder]

I would have easily signed LeMahieu for 4 years at the same money he signed with the Yankees. He would have done wonders in our lineup during that time. He is not a 15 million dollar player compared to others. He definitely is worth 20+ when you consider his production the past couple of seasons.

Bad on Jays for not offering that. An everyday player is worth at least what we agreed to pay Ryu who pitches every 5th day and has a history of injuries. If they were willing to do that they should have done this deal with LeMahieu. If it is true that they have offered 110 million over 5 years to Springer, LeMathieu is worth that average as well. To me he is a better player.

While you are entitled to your opinion and I respect that, no way DJ plays at that level for 4 more years and his game will age worse than Springer.

I do agree for the first two years it's a fantastic contract and he would help us.

 

[TopChedder]

Lemahieu at 6yrs 90 is a pretty good spread out of dollars for the yanks

6 years at almost 33 years of age?

I wouldn't. Especially if you look at his whole career.

 

[Discoverer]

Lemahieu at 6yrs 90 is a pretty good spread out of dollars for the yanks

It's definitely a positive for the first couple years. If nothing else, they're more than willing to kick their problems down the road a few years.

 

[metafour]

I would have easily signed LeMahieu for 4 years at the same money he signed with the Yankees. He would have done wonders in our lineup during that time. He is not a 15 million dollar player compared to others. He definitely is worth 20+ when you consider his production the past couple of seasons.

Bad on Jays for not offering that. An everyday player is worth at least what we agreed to pay Ryu who pitches every 5th day and has a history of injuries. If they were willing to do that they should have done this deal with LeMahieu. If it is true that they have offered 110 million over 5 years to Springer, LeMathieu is worth that average as well. To me he is a better player.

LeMathieu is NOT better than Springer. The fact that you even made that claim disqualifies your entire position. What an absurd claim.

Also, you would have "easily" signed him for 4 years $90 million? The team that just won the World Series, powered by the best front office in baseball, valued him at $30 million less than that - why is that?

LeMathieu's projected contract going into this free agency was 4 years $68 million. Our offer was actually above that. When in the hell did a guy who's going to turn 33 next season all of a sudden become this no-brainer $100 million signing? He didn't.

 

[TopChedder]

LeMathieu is NOT better than Springer. The fact that you even made that claim disqualifies your entire position. What an absurd claim.

Also, you would have "easily" signed him for 4 years $90 million? The team that just won the World Series, powered by the best front office in baseball, valued him at $30 million less than that - why is that?

LeMathieu's projected contract going into this free agency was 4 years $68 million. Our offer was actually above that. When in the hell did a guy who's going to turn 33 next season all of a sudden become this no-brainer $100 million signing? He didn't.

10000000%

If I could like this post 100 times I would!

DJ at 6 years will come back on the Yanks.

 

[Discoverer]

LeMathieu is NOT better than Springer. The fact that you even made that claim disqualifies your entire position. What an absurd claim.

Also, you would have "easily" signed him for 4 years $90 million? The team that just won the World Series, powered by the best front office in baseball, valued him at $30 million less than that - why is that?

LeMathieu's projected contract going into this free agency was 4 years $68 million. Our offer was actually above that. When in the hell did a guy who's going to turn 33 next season all of a sudden become this no-brainer $100 million signing? He didn't.

Well everyone knows the Dodgers are super cheap and they were just offering that because they didn't actually want him and knew it was low enough that he wouldn't sign.

 

[dredeye]

Jays sitting at roughly 76.5M for 2021.

Commitments for 2022 sits at 34M.

This team is going to add players of impact and a lot of payroll before opening day.

They will spend more next off season as well. I imagine they’ll try and get some long term deals started with the young guns next off season.

 

[BlueForever75]

LeMathieu is NOT better than Springer. The fact that you even made that claim disqualifies your entire position. What an absurd claim.

Also, you would have "easily" signed him for 4 years $90 million? The team that just won the World Series, powered by the best front office in baseball, valued him at $30 million less than that - why is that?

LeMathieu's projected contract going into this free agency was 4 years $68 million. Our offer was actually above that. When in the hell did a guy who's going to turn 33 next season all of a sudden become this no-brainer $100 million signing? He didn't.

Player that has won batting titles and religiously in the top 10 year after year. Been in top 5 in MVP the past 3 seasons is being undervalued on these boards. He would have easily made our lineup that much better and its not the value across the league but that to your team!

We needed a pure hitter in our lineup and an upgrade in the INF. That is money well spent.

Im not saying Springer is not worth it, I am going based on the need. And to me we have a larger hole in the INF then we do in the OF. Gurriel/Grichuk/Hernandez are not chopped liver. But that gaping hole at 3rd or better D at 2nd needs to be filled to complete lineup.

 

[metafour]

Also, Ryu is a better player than LeMathieu as well. He's been an elite pitcher in basically every season he's stayed healthy except for one. Even in the years where he didn't pitch a full season, he played at the same elite rate - he just didn't pitch as many innings. The injury history is a legitimate "flaw" and it was why (on top of his age) he didn't receive a "mega deal", but there is a big difference between a guy who is an elite performer in ~5 of the 6 seasons he's played with a few of those being shortened seasons, and a guy who actually has very little track record of being an elite performer - and when he has performed as an elite performer, its been under the pretense of extreme home/away splits and newfound power that mysteriously doesn't show up away from his extremely hitter-friendly parks.

 

[dredeye]

It's definitely a positive for the first couple years. If nothing else, they're more than willing to kick their problems down the road a few years.

The yanks have the ability to bury money like this. Think of us with the Tulo contract. They’ll just pay him to not play. It keeps them well under the luxury tax this year which means they can spend more if they want. The value is in the length.

 

[BlueForever75]

Also, Ryu is a better player than LeMathieu as well. He's been an elite pitcher in basically every season he's stayed healthy except for one. Even in the years where he didn't pitch a full season, he played at the same elite rate - he just didn't pitch as many innings. The injury history is a legitimate "flaw" and it was why (on top of his age) he didn't receive a "mega deal", but there is a big difference between a guy who is an elite performer in ~5 of the 6 seasons he's played with a few of those being shortened seasons, and a guy who actually has very little track record of being an elite performer - and when he has performed as an elite performer, its been under the pretense of extreme home/away splits and newfound power that mysteriously doesn't show up away from his extremely hitter-friendly parks.

So LeMahieu has not, for every season which was not injured?

Dont see your point. LeMahieu was elite in Colorado and also in NY. He's performed and done it well above average. Not like your stating.

Power doesnt correlate to average. He's always been a great hitter. The power is bonus.

 

[dredeye]

Player that has won batting titles and religiously in the top 10 year after year. Been in top 5 in MVP the past 3 seasons is being undervalued on these boards. He would have easily made our lineup that much better and its not the value across the league but that to your team!

We needed a pure hitter in our lineup and an upgrade in the INF. That is money well spent.

Im not saying Springer is not worth it, I am going based on the need. And to me we have a larger hole in the INF then we do in the OF. Gurriel/Grichuk/Hernandez are not chopped liver. But that gaping hole at 3rd or better D at 2nd needs to be filled to complete lineup.

And they can address the hole in the infield with players like didi after signing springer. There are options