Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt IV | Ah the waiting game sucks, let's play Hungry Hungry Hippos

[zeke]

Ah, so we've switched from straight up "Shapiro will never sign an elite free agent" to discounting the ones he actually does sign.

Shapiro appreciates your hard work here.

 

[Canada4Gold]

If they had offered LeMahieu 100/4, Springer 200/6, Bauer 400/10, and Realmuto 10000/50 all 4 would be Jays by now. Stupid Shatkins, bring back AA yesterday!!!!!

 

[Maplebeasts]

If you can land Springer and two solid starters in Odorizzi and Paxton that is a good offseason.

 

[Zanks]

Who cares about the term? They got their guy at their dollar amount, they basically just stretched it out Luongo-style to play nice under the Luxury tax.

 

[Maplebeasts]

It also sounds like Kluber impressed in his throwing session. I would love to take a swing on him. Low risk very high reward signing.

 

[Discoverer]

But I like that "a 34yr old with questionable fitness" (actually 33 for his entire first season with the Jays, but I know you don't actually care about things like that) doesn't count as a major signing, but missing out on a 32 year old who was a league average player his entire career until blossoming in his 30's while putting up some of the most extreme home/road splits you'll ever see is some kind of big miss that says something about how cheap Shapiro is.

 

[Discoverer]

If they had offered LeMahieu 100/4, Springer 200/6, Bauer 400/10, and Realmuto 10000/50 all 4 would be Jays by now. Stupid Shatkins, bring back AA yesterday!!!!!

It might be hard with another year left on Bautista and Edwin's matching 5/150 deals, but I'm sure he would have found a way to make it work.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

It might be hard with another year left on Bautista and Edwin's matching 5/150 deals, but I'm sure he would have found a way to make it work.

Oh and don't forget Dexter Fowler.

 

[Canada4Gold]

It might be hard with another year left on Bautista and Edwin's matching 5/150 deals, but I'm sure he would have found a way to make it work.

Go steal a couple billions from the Rogers vault, they won't even notice I'm sure.

 

[BlueForever75]

I guess its down to Springer, Bauer and Realmuto.

Shapiro is on record saying that the Jays would sign or get 2 premier players or 4 very good players. Right now unless they sign 2 of Springer, Bauer or Realmuto, or trade for Bryant plus one of those its looking like 4 very good players. My problem with this is that if they havent decided yet which direction to go then they risk the danger of getting nothing. Names like Bradley, Brantley, Tanaka, Paxton, Oriduzzi, Turner, Ozuna, etc wont be there too long with these signings that are happening.

They must set deadlines with Springer, Bauer and Realmuto immediately so they dont miss the boat on others. Give you best offer right now, a number you wont go higher with. And tell these guys they have a deadline to accept or offer is off the table. This way they can move on.

The game they are playing is plain stupid.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

I guess its down to Springer, Bauer and Realmuto.

Shapiro is on record saying that the Jays would sign or get 2 premier players or 4 very good players. Right now unless they sign 2 of Springer, Bauer or Realmuto, or trade for Bryant plus one of those its looking like 4 very good players. My problem with this is that if they havent decided yet which direction to go then they risk the danger of getting nothing. Names like Bradley, Brantley, Tanaka, Paxton, Oriduzzi, Turner, Ozuna, etc wont be there too long with these signings that are happening.

They must set deadlines with Springer, Bauer and Realmuto immediately so they dont miss the boat on others. Give you best offer right now, a number you wont go higher with. And tell these guys they have a deadline to accept or offer is off the table. This way they can move on.

The game they are playing is plain stupid.

I mean setting a hard and fast deadline or you are moving on sounds like the stupid plan to me. Why would you just arbitrarily want to take yourself out of signing Springer because you want to dictate when he decides to sign? People can't tell me this fanbase wouldn't lose it's f***ing mind if they made an ultimatum on Springer he called the bluff and then a month later signed a deal for similar elsewhere. I ultimately think the outcome of this off season is going to be 1 premiere player and 2-3 really good ones. That will be a good off season in my books.

 

[Garlando]

Regarding the Danny Jansen discussion from previous, I'm still a believer in his profile despite his offense limiting his value thus far in his short MLB career. Among the 51 catchers who’ve recorded at least 250PA since the beginning of the 2019 season, his 1.8 WAR ranks in a tie for 18th with the declining Buster Posey (who notably opted-out of 2020). A lot of that fWAR value has come from his defensive skills as in that time, he has posted a 74 wRC+ (100 is considered league average) at the plate which ranks 41st out of 51 eligible catchers. Not good...

He does some really good things at the plate though, he manages the strike zone well with a 14.3% walk rate (up from 8.1% in 2019) and also makes plenty of contact with a 21.1% strikeout rate supported by an above-average 9.8% swinging-strike rate. Where he’s really had problems is when he puts the ball in play. Over the course of the last two years, Jansen’s .221 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) ranks 9th from the bottom among all 378 hitters who meet the 250PA threshold. So why is so much of his contact being turned into outs?

First, his infield flyball rate is a little high at 11.7%. Infield flyballs are always turned into outs and they are therefore the worst form of contact. Considering that the MLB average is 9.6%, his above-average mark isn't ideal but he's far from being one of the worst offenders (the bottom 30 range from 16-22%). Also looking at his batted ball data, he has been very pull contact focused which makes him a shift/defensive positioning candidate. His pulled contact rate was 53.7% in 2019 which is extreme, ranking 6th highest in the league. He obviously had an approach change in 2020 as it fell to 33.3% in 2020 as he utilized a more up the middle approach which in theory should help his BABIP. But when coupled with a 39.3% flyball rate in 2020 along with below-average quality of contact numbers, there was simply a lot of flyballs and line drives that fell into OF gloves. His 2020 spray chart highlights this well: Statcast Pitch Highlighter

I think this is an area of concern but one that can likely be improved with approach and pitch selection (knowing when to get out front and pull for power and when to sit back a bit and hit the ball hard to the gap or go the other way).

Speaking of quality of contact, in 2019, his 88.9mph average was in the 40th percentile of the league. In 2020, that fell to 85.1mph, which was in the 5th percentile. Now, you can still hit for power and extra bases with below-average exit velocity figures, a guy like Didi Gregorius has done it the last number of years, including a 488 SLG, .205 ISO, and 116 wRC+ in 2020 despite a 2nd percentile average exit velocity and 90.2 MPH exit velocity on flyballs and line drives (notably, Jansen posted 90.5 MPH in 2020). So why hasn't Jansen produced similarly? Honestly I'm not sure...

He has greatly underperformed his expected stats the last two years:
- 2019 xBA was .246 vs actual was .207
-2020 xBA was .244 vs actual was .183
- 2019 xSLG was .419 vs actual was .360
- 2020 xSLG was .437 vs actual was .358

Overall his xStats paint a guy who is a valuable hitter, a 71st MLB percentile xwOBA is really valuable coming from a catcher, and actually ranks 10th among the catcher position. In reality, he finished 31st among the position. There’s no obvious culprit here. He could stand to hit fewer soft contact balls, and probably to pop up a little less, but overall, we have an extreme result (BABIP in the 3rd percentile) without apparently extreme average underlying traits.

Taking a look at the visual below, there's a big blue dot at 20 degrees between 95 and 100 mph. Those are high line drives or low flies that can get over outfielder’s heads or into the gaps and go for extra bases pretty regularly. The league hit .472 on them, while Jansen has hit just .250. I can also argue that he’s had pretty bad luck on those hard ground balls, especially those hit level between 90 and 100mph and those hit around -10 degrees and over 100mph. MLB hits about .380 and .300 on those two types of balls, but Jansen has hit .083 and .000, respectively. Add in some soft liners that didn't fall in and it's clear that he's had some misfortune. If those hits start falling in more frequently, his ability to draw walks and his defense should give him the avenue to being a top 10 catcher in baseball. Only 17 catchers in baseball posted a wRC+ of 100 over the last two years a or better and only 2 them have the defensive value of Jansen. He's a valuable asset that may be due for positive regression and I'm inclined to bet on him.

 

[thehockeysong]

I guess its down to Springer, Bauer and Realmuto.

Shapiro is on record saying that the Jays would sign or get 2 premier players or 4 very good players. Right now unless they sign 2 of Springer, Bauer or Realmuto, or trade for Bryant plus one of those its looking like 4 very good players. My problem with this is that if they havent decided yet which direction to go then they risk the danger of getting nothing. Names like Bradley, Brantley, Tanaka, Paxton, Oriduzzi, Turner, Ozuna, etc wont be there too long with these signings that are happening.

They must set deadlines with Springer, Bauer and Realmuto immediately so they dont miss the boat on others. Give you best offer right now, a number you wont go higher with. And tell these guys they have a deadline to accept or offer is off the table. This way they can move on.

The game they are playing is plain stupid.

Unfortunately, it's not a pure dollars game. If you're trying to convince players to pick your team over every other team, then being hyper aggressive in negotiations isn't going to bode well. That's why teams don't tend to do that, even though it would obviously make things video game easy.

 

[Deebo]

 

[TF97]

Good for DJ, I always like to see players get paid well. As for the Blue Jays, I don't think this changes anything. I have always thought that Springer was the best fit and that DJ would not leave the Yankees. Springer remains a free agent, DJ went back to the Yankees, and the Mets appear to be focused elsewhere.

 

[BlueForever75]

Unfortunately, it's not a pure dollars game. If you're trying to convince players to pick your team over every other team, then being hyper aggressive in negotiations isn't going to bode well. That's why teams don't tend to do that, even though it would obviously make things video game easy.

Sorry I disagree. In the corporate world which I have been a part of for many years, being aggressive to acquire top talent is the way its always been. You snooze you lose better personnel, and I bet Rogers is the same with its corporate offices. Running a baseball team should be no different.

You want to succeed you focus on having the best talent working for you. Deadlines are set all the time during negotiations, a business cannot sit and wait for talent to select them or they risk losing on other potential candidates.

This is no different. If the Jays truly see themselves in a position to contend and want to get there. They cannot sit on their hands and wait. They did this with EE and stated they did it to not lose out on Morales in the past. This should be no different. Offer to Springer cause Bradley wont wait around, offer to Bauer cause Paxton, Tanaka and Oriduzzi wont wait around.

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

Meh, not too disappointed about missing DJ, never expected him and they did offer decent money (obv. could have been more). I’d rather go value signing like Didi and home run with Springer.

Now, they lose out on Springer? Then I’ll be quite disappointed.

to me though, this isn’t blue jays being conservative blue jays, this is blue jays being Canadian. If we’re in any US state that isn’t a complete butthole, he may have signed here.

 

[Avilaj07]

Ideal signings,

Springer
Didi
Realmuto
Odorizzi
Walker

Trade Janson,Grichuk for pitching

 

[Hoverhand]

But I like that "a 34yr old with questionable fitness" (actually 33 for his entire first season with the Jays, but I know you don't actually care about things like that) doesn't count as a major signing, but missing out on a 32 year old who was a league average player his entire career until blossoming in his 30's while putting up some of the most extreme home/road splits you'll ever see is some kind of big miss that says something about how cheap Shapiro is.

He was not a league average player until he was 30, I know you all don't like Zeke's arguing style but let's all try to be in good faith here.

LeMahieu started winning gold gloves at 25 and started making all star games at 26. He's one of the best hitters in baseball and the Jays would have zero issue getting a ton of value out of him if they upped the Yankees offer.

Zeke isn't totally incorrect here people, I just think the anger should be pointed at Rogers instead of the figureheads they put in place. The Jays beat the Yankees in attendance in 2016(2015? Maybe) and broke Canadian viewership records with Game 5 against the Rangers, yet they stripped the team down (somewhat justifiably) and hired a small market president and GM to take us through a rebuild that shouldn't have been as long as it was. Frankly, I have no idea whether it's Rogers keeping them in line or from the beginning Shapiro got the job on a promise that he could penny pinch in most spots and still build a championship level team.

I won't be too upset unless we miss out on Springer, that's where I'm drawing the line. Im just requesting as a thread we stop acting like getting the best 2 hole hitter we've had since Alomar wouldn't have been worth like 5/90? We're a big market team that can afford to take on big risks like that, whether Rogers wants you to believe that or not.

 

[Beaumaris]

I'm pulling for Reese

I see what you done there.

 

[Maplebeasts]

He was not a league average player until he was 30, I know you all don't like Zeke's arguing style but let's all try to be in good faith here.

LeMahieu started winning gold gloves at 25 and started making all star games at 26. He's one of the best hitters in baseball and the Jays would have zero issue getting a ton of value out of him if they upped the Yankees offer.

Zeke isn't totally incorrect here people, I just think the anger should be pointed at Rogers instead of the figureheads they put in place. The Jays beat the Yankees in attendance in 2016(2015? Maybe) and broke Canadian viewership records with Game 5 against the Rangers, yet they stripped the team down (somewhat justifiably) and hired a small market president and GM to take us through a rebuild that shouldn't have been as long as it was. Frankly, I have no idea whether it's Rogers keeping them in line or from the beginning Shapiro got the job on a promise that he could penny pinch in most spots and still build a championship level team.

I won't be too upset unless we miss out on Springer, that's where I'm drawing the line. Im just requesting as a thread we stop acting like getting the best 2 hole hitter we've had since Alomar wouldn't have been worth like 5/90? We're a big market team that can afford to take on big risks like that, whether Rogers wants you to believe that or not.

As nice as DJ would have been. I'm 100% convinced that the Jays' big prize here is Springer. He checks all the boxes: Strong bat, solid D, can fill the organizations biggest need outside of starting pitching, great playoff performer. If they miss out on Springer, this is not the offseason we were all hoping for unless they can get one of Realmuto/Bauer and at least 2 other arms in the Odorizzi, Paxton, Kluber tier.

 

[zeke]

 

[phillipmike]

Jays sitting at roughly 76.5M for 2021.

Commitments for 2022 sits at 34M.

This team is going to add players of impact and a lot of payroll before opening day.

 

[Mr Knies Guy]

I do think there’s a fast-approaching crap or get off the pot storm abrewin

 

[Hoverhand]

Yeah the 2 elite player dream is dead with LeMahieu off the board, only elite player we could've gotten for under 100 million unless someone is slipping my mind.