dredeye
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Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Pt III | Winter meetings are over. Still waiting for stuff to happen
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weems
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phillipmike
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Mr Knies Guy
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Well I for one am not saying they can’t sign top guys, but keep painting with broad brush strokes.
Your view of realistic isn’t gospel truth and is as uninformed as my POV, it bears no weight. Technically you have no clue how much money they can or will spend, and there are 3 high impact FAs free to sign for monetary assets, which we have been led to believe are copious. Of course, the inverse may also be true, they may have lost money with COVID and not have money to spend. The point is you nor I actually have a clue.
And who exactly is expecting, much less stating, that they must sign the top FAs or it’s a total bust?
That sort of false equivalence is unsurprising considering the nature of these Jays threads - sweeping, false equivocations thrown haphazardly towards those with a dissenting and/or critical eye expressing disappointment, such as comments re this off-season thus far is ridiculous and lazy; postulations drawn suggesting that those disappointed must mean that they had their hearts set on the moon and expected a full assault with the biggest of the FAs are untrue.
thehockeysong
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The final portion of this post would seem to fall into "painting broad brush strokes" as well, no? Surely not everyone is here yearning for group-think.
You noted that fans had reasonable expectations, yet in this very thread there are fans waxing poetic about acquiring the top pitcher, the top outfielder and the top infielder available. I think that it's reasonable for Discoverer to look at a league with this many teams, no salary cap, and an extraordinarily long history, and infer a reasonable band of outcomes. To presume acquiring three or four elite talents in one offseason is just as reasonable as a more modest haul would be a false equivalency, I'm sure you would agree. So I don't think I'd agree with you that you are both entirely uninformed. There's lots of precedent to draw upon when estimating what the team "being aggressive" would look like.
phillipmike
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MLB rumors: Padres working on Fernando Tatis Jr. extension; Japanese righty has big-league offers
Preller has done a great job building that team up but having Tatis Jr. start the year with the team in 2019 was idiotic as they missed the playoffs and if these numbers are true, the move cost the Padres 2 more years of control and/or $20M of a prime superstar player.
Our own Mike Axisa outlined what else the Padres need to get done after the blockbuster moves, and among them was locking up Tatis. Here's what Axisa had to say:
Preller has done a great job building that team up but having Tatis Jr. start the year with the team in 2019 was idiotic as they missed the playoffs and if these numbers are true, the move cost the Padres 2 more years of control and/or $20M of a prime superstar player.
People in this thread over the last couple of months have regularly posted projected lineups with multiple star-calibre additions to the team. I never said that you have those expectations, but some people apparently do, and those kinds of expectations have not been driven by the things management has said.
But at the same time, we should expect some significant additions; the team likely has more money to spend than most given recent payroll trends, management has a stated desire to make big improvements to the team (and, more specifically, to add impact players), they have been rumoured to be in discussions with most of the top free agents so far (and, beyond just rumours, there's been confirmation of discussions with some of them), and they've already shown a willingness to spend significant dollars to add impact players (when they team was coming off a terrible season, let alone when they're on the brink of contention).
None of that is to say that any of these scenarios are impossible - technically, the Jays could come away with a bunch of stars all over the field, and they could also come away entirely empty-handed - but no, I don't think all points of view are equally valid because some are supported by evidence and historical precedent, and some aren't.
You can also look at it though like Tatis brought excitement back to Padres fans and increased revenue early and that buzz came back because of a budding superstar. I don’t fault Preller for bringing him up early. Obviously he was ready and now they’re stacked.
I don't think keeping him down for the first two weeks of 2019 would have tempered that excitement or changed the current state of the team, though. Waiting until part way into 2020 would be pretty extreme, but they could have gotten one extra with basically no consequences.
phillipmike
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Mr Knies Guy
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The issue isn’t that I think the vocal members here strive for group-think, which is to say one consensus borne from conformity, for one and all, but rather that opposing and critical points of view are, in my opinion, at times met with discourse suggestive that those very fans/posters are clueless. It’s destructively dismissive at times.
How do I know? And how is it not merely baselessly painting broad strokes? Because it’s happened to me on a few occasions over the years by various, regular contributors.
But my overarching theme here is not specifically a statement on the reasonableness of fans’ expectations, but that opposing and/or contrarian viewpoints on this matter may be just as valid as yours, Discoverer’s, or anyone else’s, and it doesn’t mean the poster is ill-informed or overly cynical.
On this topic: the FO came out with some fire about money to spend, availability of it, and spoke to desire for impact players. My personal view is that they shouldn’t have, but that’s just me. I acknowledge saying ‘impact’ allows for subjectivity and doesn’t positively correlate to a result of the triumviri that would be Bauer, et al. But the fact is, no one here can definitely say that it didn’t/doesn’t mean an intention to acquire one, two or three of the consensus elite FAs. You yourself acknowledge there’s no hard cap, therefore in actuality from a monetary perspective, the possibility could be real. Then there’s the side topics of geography, team ability, etc., where I have other viewpoints about. But in the end, who really knows what is and isn’t attainable? Those actually involved with/privy to the discussions and them alone, is what I say.
Do I actually believe they meant all three? No, and your point on precedent in this market isn’t wholly unfounded, especially since I don’t actually believe they have a shot at even one of them, but I’m also not going to suggest a poster who thinks they should get two, three of them is crazy and doesn’t have a clue. I’m also not going to lose my mind if we come away empty-handed, but yeah I’ll be disappointed, even if we were to come away with a Didi vs Lindor. That doesn’t mean I don’t think Didi could provide some sort of impact though. However, there’s a relative scale of impact, I’m sure you’ll agree.
thehockeysong
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Fair points. I don't think though that there's really a downside to management stating they plan to go out and try to sign some impact players. Your reasoning for expecting no impact signing is due to the history the club has of being the forever bridesmaid (if I'm reading correct) which is a fair justification. And counter to that, others have stated they believe that Ryu is a more appropriate barometer of expectations. Im fine with that reasoning too. Where I'd argue someone is misinformed is if they set an expectation baselessly. What I mean by that, is if they feel let down if the club doesn't have an unprecedented offseason, I'd want to know where that expectation comes from (and I don't think I'd interpret the management team statements to mean that). It'd be a bit like if I was dissapointed if Grichuk didn't put up an MVP season after a coach said they think he'll have a good year. "Good year" can mean anything that isn't bad, but at a certain expectation level the dissapointment is self-made.
thehockeysong
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Further to the above, it'd be comedy gold if the club went out and did a clean sweep of the free agents so we all look dumb. 
Why signing Springer could cost Blue Jays more than anticipated - Sportsnet.ca
Now, let’s add to that some further context by taking a closer look at last year’s top free agent position player, another 2011 first-round pick in Anthony Rendon. Rendon hit free agency at age 29, compared to the 31-year-old Springer, and that's a potentially significant difference, especially when it comes to duration of contract. But as far as impact is concerned, the two aren't so far apart. Consider these numbers:
Rendon in Washington
Career numbers: 29.1 WAR, 127 OPS+
Final two years before free agency: .960 OPS, 147 OPS+, 5.9 WAR per 650 PA
Springer in Houston
Career: 27.5 WAR, 131 OPS+
Final two years before free agency: .953 OPS, 147 OPS+, 7.2 WAR per 650 PA
Big picture, we’re talking about two players who produce about as much as one another. There are significant differences, most notably the age gap, but if Rendon got $35 million for seven years, would it be crazy for Springer to want $35 million for five? To be clear, that’s totally speculative, but some industry observers do believe Rendon is a better comp for Springer’s AAV than Donaldson, who turned 34 last winter. A theoretical structure of $35 million times five years would get Springer to $175 million, which is certainly ‘well over’ $150 million.
Now, Rendon had the advantage of hitting free agency before the pandemic, and circumstances have definitely changed over the last 12 months. Springer’s path to an AAV that high will undoubtedly be tougher. But a closer examination of Rendon suggests an AAV around $30 million can’t be ruled for Springer.
Of course that’s all academic unless a team like the Mets or Blue Jays agrees. So, will they? That’s not a question club executives of any team would ever answer publicly, of course, but in recent months the Blue Jays have given some in the industry the impression they’re prepared to go to at least $125 million for Springer. A $125-million deal would be the largest free agent contract in franchise history by $42.5 million and there’s a good chance that’s not even a hard limit. Yet according to Martino, the Mets “might be willing to approach $150 million” for Springer.
If so, would the Blue Jays join the Mets in a bidding war? Or move on and resume their impact talent search elsewhere? Only the Blue Jays know that answer right now, though they’ve likely established an internal ‘walkaway’ threshold for their max bids on all top free agents, Springer included.
At this point, it’s easier to see the Mets going to $150 million, which is perhaps why they’re considered favourites to sign Springer. But regardless of who lands him, the last couple of months suggest he’s well-positioned to beat those early projections.
Now, let’s add to that some further context by taking a closer look at last year’s top free agent position player, another 2011 first-round pick in Anthony Rendon. Rendon hit free agency at age 29, compared to the 31-year-old Springer, and that's a potentially significant difference, especially when it comes to duration of contract. But as far as impact is concerned, the two aren't so far apart. Consider these numbers:
Rendon in Washington
Career numbers: 29.1 WAR, 127 OPS+
Final two years before free agency: .960 OPS, 147 OPS+, 5.9 WAR per 650 PA
Springer in Houston
Career: 27.5 WAR, 131 OPS+
Final two years before free agency: .953 OPS, 147 OPS+, 7.2 WAR per 650 PA
Big picture, we’re talking about two players who produce about as much as one another. There are significant differences, most notably the age gap, but if Rendon got $35 million for seven years, would it be crazy for Springer to want $35 million for five? To be clear, that’s totally speculative, but some industry observers do believe Rendon is a better comp for Springer’s AAV than Donaldson, who turned 34 last winter. A theoretical structure of $35 million times five years would get Springer to $175 million, which is certainly ‘well over’ $150 million.
Now, Rendon had the advantage of hitting free agency before the pandemic, and circumstances have definitely changed over the last 12 months. Springer’s path to an AAV that high will undoubtedly be tougher. But a closer examination of Rendon suggests an AAV around $30 million can’t be ruled for Springer.
Of course that’s all academic unless a team like the Mets or Blue Jays agrees. So, will they? That’s not a question club executives of any team would ever answer publicly, of course, but in recent months the Blue Jays have given some in the industry the impression they’re prepared to go to at least $125 million for Springer. A $125-million deal would be the largest free agent contract in franchise history by $42.5 million and there’s a good chance that’s not even a hard limit. Yet according to Martino, the Mets “might be willing to approach $150 million” for Springer.
If so, would the Blue Jays join the Mets in a bidding war? Or move on and resume their impact talent search elsewhere? Only the Blue Jays know that answer right now, though they’ve likely established an internal ‘walkaway’ threshold for their max bids on all top free agents, Springer included.
At this point, it’s easier to see the Mets going to $150 million, which is perhaps why they’re considered favourites to sign Springer. But regardless of who lands him, the last couple of months suggest he’s well-positioned to beat those early projections.
To be clear, I never intended to suggest any of these opposing viewpoints are "crazy" or "clueless". I just think they're extreme viewpoints at opposite ends of the spectrum (Jays will sign a bunch of elite guys vs. Jays won't make any major additions) that aren't based on much evidence and that reality likely lies somewhere in the middle.
Apparently the Mets are out on Tomoyuki Sugano.
Giants and Jays are attached to him in rumores. I think he'd be a solid addition to the middle of the rotation.
Giants and Jays are attached to him in rumores. I think he'd be a solid addition to the middle of the rotation.
Mr Knies Guy
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Fair points all around my friend.
Nothing would make me happier than to eat crow.... I already did it last year with Ryu and would love to do it againFurther to the above, it'd be comedy gold if the club went out and did a clean sweep of the free agents so we all look dumb.
Fair enough tbh
dredeye
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I read this today as well. I would have preferred if it was the Giants that were out. West coast teams usually come out on top with the Asian players
ShaneFalco
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He’s been there before probably from his first stint. Would be a interesting reunion.
ShaneFalco
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Yup - his wife is from Montreal so it makes sense, and he seemed to like it here his first go-around
I'm not generally a big fan of giving big contracts to relievers, but Hendriks's last two years have been batshit crazy. That would be a fun addition.
I'm fine with paying truly elite relievers and Hendriks is one at this point.
Mr Knies Guy
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