Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Pt II: It's the off-season in November!... Wait. That's normal for baseball.

[Kurtz]

No, he wasn't. 1.7fWAR is 4.6 if he played 162 and 0.8 bWAR is 2.2.

I rounded up 4.6 to 5 since we're estimating.

 

[BAM]

There is nothing buy low about Lindor. He will make good money this year then likely be the top fa next winter.

Also, Cleveland is asking for more for him than Boston got for Betts.

He's buy-low because he came off a bad year for his standards and Cleveland looks like they have to move him. Not to mention not many teams are in the position to trade for Lindor & make a big contract extension to Lindor.

 

[Bjindaho]

I rounded up 4.6 to 5 since we're estimating.

Which adds to a heavily bloated defense stat. He was below his career rates across the board other than Cleveland turning a ton of DPs and him making less errors.

 

[BlueForever75]

Only makes sense if Brantley or Springer comes. It might even be an offensive downgrade from Gurriel to Lindor. I’m actually surprised that management already wants to move on from Bichette at SS.

Acquiring Lindor improves your lineup. Your improving SS, 2B and 3B in one move.

Of course if Gurriel is included in the deal it would mean we would need to acquire an upgrade in the OF to replace him for all of this to work. Acquiring Springer, Bradley, Brantley or Ozuna would become a must.

Its not so much moving on from Bichette at SS, more so having pieces available to improve the overall lineup.

 

[BlueForever75]

Depth. If we move Roark, someone needs to take his starts.

Matz is intriguing to me. There's potential under his horrid peripherals.

Would rather have Walker then Matz. Keep our prospects and use them on other deals.

 

[Bjindaho]

Would rather have Walker then Matz. Keep our prospects and use them on other deals.

Depends on cost. They might even do Roark for Matt straight up.

 

[Discoverer]

He's buy-low because he came off a bad year for his standards and Cleveland looks like they have to move him. Not to mention not many teams are in the position to trade for Lindor & make a big contract extension to Lindor.

The problem I have with this is that there's been so much talk about "buying low" to some extent on Lindor, and Cleveland having no choice but to move him, and Cleveland not having many realistic suitors... but including someone with a cheap, multi-year contract who's been worth 3.3 fWAR in 128 games since converting to the OF (let alone whatever people see as the plus in a trade) doesn't exactly scream "buy low" or "forced into a corner" to me. That's paying a premium to get a deal done, or at the absolute least it's paying full value.

(And I'm valuing Gurriel as something like a 3 fWAR player - between his ~2 fWAR projection and the ~4 fWAR player he's been as an OF.)

 

[phillipmike]

Jays sure like their cheaters.

 

[Epictetus]

Also, Cleveland is asking for more for him than Boston got for Betts.

Verdugo and Gurriel are pretty similar.

 

[Bjindaho]

Jays sure like their cheaters.

HARD PASS

 

[Discoverer]

Jays sure like their cheaters.

I'm not one to complain about "interest in" or "checking in on" type rumours because most of them mean nothing and everyone is a good addition at the right price and for the right role.

But... ew.

 

[Bjindaho]

Verdugo and Gurriel are pretty similar.

And Price was in the deal (with salary retained)

Cleveland also is asking for Gurriel+.

 

[Discoverer]

Verdugo and Gurriel are pretty similar.

Yeah, value-wise, I think they're pretty close. But the fit is very different since the Dodgers were loaded with OF options (and obviously moved Verdugo for another) and the Jays are very much not.

 

[phillipmike]

1 player on each club primed for big rebound

Blue Jays: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 1B: He certainly wasn’t bad in 2020 (115 OPS+), but you certainly don’t expect six different lineup-mates to have a higher OPS than he does. The superstar breakout is coming, yes?

Free agents who could leave for a key rival

Blue Jays sign INF DJ LeMahieu away from Yankees
While it’s still widely assumed that New York will do what it takes to retain LeMahieu, no other team has been connected more to the 2020 AL batting champion in offseason rumors than Toronto. It would make quite a statement for the up-and-coming Blue Jays to go out and land the 32-year-old, given how infrequently the Yanks tend to lose bidding wars. And the idea certainly is tempting. While LeMahieu has primarily played second base in his career, he also has corner-infield experience and could slide in at either first or third with Toronto, depending on the club’s plans for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. But this move would first and foremost be about LeMahieu’s bat, which produced a .336/.386/.536 line as a Yankee and would do wonders for the Blue Jays’ hopes of jumping past the Yankees and Rays in 2021.
One more to watch: Blue Jays sign CF Jackie Bradley Jr. away from Red Sox

 

[Epictetus]

And Price was in the deal (with salary retained)

Cleveland also is asking for Gurriel+.

And the Dodgers also gave up a very solid prospect.

I think Cleveland is well within their rights to ask for Gurriel and not come across as looking absurd. Betts, while obviously better than Lindor and therefore not the exact situation, still provides some precedence for a Gurriel-type asset being the ask.

Yeah, value-wise, I think they're pretty close. But the fit is very different since the Dodgers were loaded with OF options (and obviously moved Verdugo for another) and the Jays are very much not.

And Cleveland is also trading a SS for an OFer (easier to replace).

 

[Kurtz]

Depth. If we move Roark, someone needs to take his starts.

Matz is intriguing to me. There's potential under his horrid peripherals.

Gross. The last thing we need is another 5/6/7/8 starter type. We currently have 5 SP better than Roark, and that's not even counting Kay or Borucki (if we want to give him another shot at SP, which he craves). And we're still in the market for a top of the rotation starter, by all accounts.

 

[Discoverer]

And the Dodgers also gave up a very solid prospect.

I think Cleveland is well within their rights to ask for Gurriel and not come across as looking absurd. Betts, while obviously better than Lindor and therefore not the exact situation, still provides some precedence for a Gurriel-type asset being the ask.

And Cleveland is also trading a SS for an OFer (easier to replace).

Absolutely. I don't disagree with any of that. What I'm most interested in, though, is how everything fits for Toronto, and I don't think Gurriel for Lindor makes sense. If Cleveland insists on Gurriel, I would just move on since there are plenty of other directions to go in order to add an impact player, whether it be expanding the trade to fill multiple holes (like adding Carrasco with other pieces going to Cleveland), targeting a free agent right now (Realmuto, Springer, LeMahieu, etc.), making multiple smaller, shorter term improvements (some combination of guys like Wong/Turner/Bradley or whatever), taking a chance by waiting until what is shaping up to be a huge free agent class next year (Lindor, Baez, Bryant, Story, Correa, Seager, Rizzo, Freeman, etc.), or looking elsewhere for a team willing to make a trade for future assets instead of current ones (possibly the Cubs or Rockies, to name a couple).

 

[phillipmike]

Wow that's a great backend piece for nothing.

 

[BlueForever75]

Depends on cost. They might even do Roark for Matt straight up.

If we can get a top end rotation starter with Ryu either through trade or FA, that would be my preference with Roark as #5 starter. But if we are not going to be able to secure a top end starter. They should bring Walker back. More upside and made quality adjustments with pitching coach Walker and staff. His price tag shouldnt be more then 8-9 million a season.

 

[BlueForever75]

Absolutely. I don't disagree with any of that. What I'm most interested in, though, is how everything fits for Toronto, and I don't think Gurriel for Lindor makes sense. If Cleveland insists on Gurriel, I would just move on since there are plenty of other directions to go in order to add an impact player, whether it be expanding the trade to fill multiple holes (like adding Carrasco with other pieces going to Cleveland), targeting a free agent right now (Realmuto, Springer, LeMahieu, etc.), making multiple smaller, shorter term improvements (some combination of guys like Wong/Turner/Bradley or whatever), taking a chance by waiting until what is shaping up to be a huge free agent class next year (Lindor, Baez, Bryant, Story, Correa, Seager, Rizzo, Freeman, etc.), or looking elsewhere for a team willing to make a trade for future assets instead of current ones (possibly the Cubs or Rockies, to name a couple).

I agree with this approach. Only way I trade Gurriel in a Lindor deal is if Carrasco comes back as well. It needs to be a blockbuster. Any trade for Lindor should be prospects only.

 

[phillipmike]

MLB Winter Meetings: Five bold predictions, including big-name signing as hot stove warms up

Where will Carrasco end up? I'll say the Blue Jays given team president Mark Shapiro's familiarity with Carrasco dating back to his time in Cleveland's front office. My terrible trade idea: Toronto trades Teoscar Hernandez for Carrasco, then signs Michael Brantley or Joc Pederson or George Springer to replace Hernandez in the outfield. Eh? Eh?

Worth nothing the Indians have lost their starting 1B, 2B and are about to lose their star SS. Their catchers were weak and their OFers were weak and have they have a surplus of pitching. We could fill mutliple needs at a fraction of the cost. McGuire, Tellez, Espinal, and Smith could really help them out a lot.

That knocks two suitors (Mets and Phillies) out of the Realmuto race, trimming his market to a few obvious fits (Astros? Blue Jays? Nationals?) and a couple other possibilities (Angels? Mariners? Rangers?). Don't forget the Mystery Team™ either. The Tigers signed Ivan Rodriguez after going 43-119 in 2003, right? Maybe they'll sign Realmuto so he can help groom their young pitchers.

 

[TF97]

MLB Winter Meetings: Five bold predictions, including big-name signing as hot stove warms up



Worth nothing the Indians have lost their starting 1B, 2B and are about to lose their star SS. Their catchers were weak and their OFers were weak and have they have a surplus of pitching. We could fill mutliple needs at a fraction of the cost. McGuire, Tellez, Espinal, and Smith could really help them out a lot.

I’ve had a deal around Tellez and Carrasco in the back of my mind for a while now and I think there’s a very legitimate possibility that it happens. Cleveland could always put Naylor at 1B but I think he’s more likely to stay in the OF for now at least.

 

[Kurtz]

MLB Winter Meetings: Five bold predictions, including big-name signing as hot stove warms up



Worth nothing the Indians have lost their starting 1B, 2B and are about to lose their star SS. Their catchers were weak and their OFers were weak and have they have a surplus of pitching. We could fill mutliple needs at a fraction of the cost. McGuire, Tellez, Espinal, and Smith could really help them out a lot.

Alrighty then. Sign Realmuto. Then Gurriel+Jansen+Tellez+Groshans for Carrasco and Lindor. Vlad stays at 1B, Bo takes 2b and Biggio takes 3b. Kirk is our primary DH/backup C. Sign an OF and a high leverage relief arm, and we're all done.

 

[Discoverer]

Alrighty then. Sign Realmuto. Then Gurriel+Jansen+Tellez+Groshans for Carrasco and Lindor. Vlad stays at 1B, Bo takes 2b and Biggio takes 3b. Kirk is our primary DH/backup C. Sign a corner OF and a high leverage relief arm, and we're all done.

I would say that's pretty serious overkill on the value going to Cleveland in that deal (maybe swap Jansen out for McGuire or Groshans for a lesser prospect or something), but I like it as an overall strategy and I think it makes a lot more sense than Gurriel for Lindor straight up.

 

[phillipmike]

Alrighty then. Sign Realmuto. Then Gurriel+Jansen+Tellez+Groshans for Carrasco and Lindor. Vlad stays at 1B, Bo takes 2b and Biggio takes 3b. Kirk is our primary DH/backup C. Sign a corner OF and a high leverage relief arm, and we're all done.

Including Gurriel, Jansen and Groshans? Ramirez better be coming back in that deal too.

Good players are getting non tendered. Good players are getting traded for very little. Cleveland would love to get rid of salary, i doubt we have to give up Jansen and Groshans to get a 34 year old Carassco added to Lindor.