Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Pt II: It's the off-season in November!... Wait. That's normal for baseball.

[Kurtz]

Just a note on the Gurriel/Lindor debate - Lindor is a month younger than Gurriel. Gurriel also has a babip of .330, which might be due to regress a bit. Lindor's BABIP is .298 for comparison, despite the fact that both guys have virtually the same soft/medium/hard hit ball percentages.

 

[tokyoite]

Jays should take a hard look at this Japanese pitcher.
Tomoyuki Sugano Japanese Leagues Statistics & History | Baseball-Reference.com

 

[Zanks]

Just a note on the Gurriel/Lindor debate - Lindor is a month younger than Gurriel. Gurriel also has a babip of .330, which might be due to regress a bit. Lindor's BABIP is .298 for comparison, despite the fact that both guys have virtually the same soft/medium/hard hit ball percentages.

This doesn't even play into things for me. It's obvious Lindor is the more valuable player.

I haven't seen anyone debate that.

The issue is actual cost, remaining term, position.

 

[Kurtz]

This doesn't even play into things for me. It's obvious Lindor is the more valuable player.

I haven't seen anyone debate that.

The issue is actual cost, remaining term, position.

The point is we might be selling relatively high on Gurriel here while buying relatively low on Lindor. A Tampa special.

 

[Jozay]

I mean how much leverage does Cleveland really have?

Good, cheap, controllable major league talent has been at a premium, and especially now because of covid. How many teams really have the appetite to trade those types of players let alone give Lindor the extension that he'll want?

Its gotta be less than a handful right now.

 

[Zanks]

The point is we might be selling relatively high on Gurriel here while buying relatively low on Lindor. A Tampa special.

Ya, and that's my point. You can't pull a Tampa by trading the less experienced inferior player with more control for the All Star soon to be free agent. That's literally the opposite of what Tampa does.

If anything, Cleveland is the Tampa here. It's based on cost & control. I'm not saying Lindor is bad, he is obviously very good, I just think the marginal improvement at SS and lack of control means we should be putting that money towards other needs, primarily pitching.

 

[Bjindaho]

I mean how much leverage does Cleveland really have?

Good, cheap, controllable major league talent has been at a premium, and especially now because of covid. How many teams really have the appetite to trade those types of players let alone give Lindor the extension that he'll want?

Its gotta be less than a handful right now.

Lindor appears to want to hit free agency, according to Davidi's segment yesterday.

Cleveland might only have us as a trade partner (Nym seems to be the only other team interested in adding salary, and they have Gimenez).

Their backup plan is to hold him until the deadline, but no one else has a Gurriel to offer, and most teams wouldn't even try to compete if we offered Orelvis.

 

[Discoverer]

The point is we might be selling relatively high on Gurriel here while buying relatively low on Lindor. A Tampa special.

I can see the Gurriel side of the BABIP argument - he's still at just over 200 games played, so it's hard to say whether there's some flukiness there or if he's just a high BABIP guy - but Limdor's BABIP is based on nearly 800 games. Actually, in the four years since he made a significant launch angle change to tap into his power, he's regularly been in the .280 BABIP range. That's not selling low... that's likely just who he is now.

 

[Drew311]

Only makes sense if Brantley or Springer comes. It might even be an offensive downgrade from Gurriel to Lindor. I’m actually surprised that management already wants to move on from Bichette at SS.

 

[BAM]

This doesn't even play into things for me. It's obvious Lindor is the more valuable player.

I haven't seen anyone debate that.

The issue is actual cost, remaining term, position.

Problem is you're risking the stock of Gurriel falling with a BABIP regression and Lindor is at an excellent buy-low opportunity. Do you really want to be in the situation of Lindor getting traded to another team and performing like usual like the Jays keep Gurriel and he regresses to where he should be? Term doesn't matter if it's going to an average player. Grichuk has term...so what.

 

[Bjindaho]

Problem is you're risking the stock of Gurriel falling with a BABIP regression and Lindor is at an excellent buy-low opportunity. Do you really want to be in the situation of Lindor getting traded to another team and performing like usual like the Jays keep Gurriel and he regresses to where he should be? Term doesn't matter if it's going to an average player. Grichuk has term...so what.

There is nothing buy low about Lindor. He will make good money this year then likely be the top fa next winter.

Also, Cleveland is asking for more for him than Boston got for Betts.

 

[Greek_physique]

There is nothing buy low about Lindor. He will make good money this year then likely be the top fa next winter.

Also, Cleveland is asking for more for him than Boston got for Betts.

They have to ask for more...IMO, I doubt it happens tho. Boston gave up salary...Cleveland just wants to hit a homerun.

 

[Discoverer]

Problem is you're risking the stock of Gurriel falling with a BABIP regression and Lindor is at an excellent buy-low opportunity. Do you really want to be in the situation of Lindor getting traded to another team and performing like usual like the Jays keep Gurriel and he regresses to where he should be? Term doesn't matter if it's going to an average player. Grichuk has term...so what.

Of course no one wants to be in that hypothetical situation. But there's really nothing to suggest Gurriel is a huge regression candidate, either, since his xwOBA for his career is only 12 points below his career wOBA. Despite mediocre/bad K and BB rates, his batted ball statcast numbers (hard hit rate, barrels, exit velocity, launch angle) are all very good.

I still think if you expect that regression, then including Gurriel for Lindor starts to make much more sense. But looking at his BABIP and suggesting he's going to regress based on that is far too simplistic.

 

[Kurtz]

I can see the Gurriel side of the BABIP argument - he's still at just over 200 games played, so it's hard to say whether there's some flukiness there or if he's just a high BABIP guy - but Limdor's BABIP is based on nearly 800 games. Actually, in the four years since he made a significant launch angle change to tap into his power, he's regularly been in the .280 BABIP range. That's not selling low... that's likely just who he is now.

In terms of buying low on Lindor I mean that at this precise time it looks like there might only be 2-3 potential suitors for him (us, Mets...maybe that's it), and Cleveland looks like they have to deal him.

 

[SDig14]

Talking to Mets?

 

[SDig14]

Maybe we just try to add Lindor at the deadline instead then and keep Gurriel. If the price is reasonable, it can just be seen as a good way for him to learn the team and see if he would like to sign long term.

I think Atkins would consider this if the prospect capital includes no top 10 quality.

 

[phillipmike]

Talking to Mets?

[Rosenthal] Before signing Steven Matz to a one-year, $5.2 million contract, the Mets contacted the Blue Jays to gauge their interest in the left-hander, according to major-league sources

Rosenthal: Phils' puzzling offseason; MLB's big loss; Mets trade talk; more notes

 

[Bjindaho]

Ha-seong Kim has been posted

 

[phillipmike]

 

[Bjindaho]

Rosenthal: Phils' puzzling offseason; MLB's big loss; Mets trade talk; more notes

Depth. If we move Roark, someone needs to take his starts.

Matz is intriguing to me. There's potential under his horrid peripherals.

 

[phillipmike]

I have no problems dealing Gurriel for Lindor without an extension for 3 additional reasons others arent talking about;

-Gurriel has an injury history; he is older than Lindor and has only played 206 MLB games to Lindor's 777 games
-LF is one of the easiest positions to fill, SS is one of the hardest positions to fill
-If Lindor walks you receive a compensatory pick

Another reason for Lindor is the elite defense, i think that gets downplayed too much. our team defense was awful and to get a stud defender at the hardest or 2nd hardest defensive position on the diamond is very important in taking the team to the next level.

 

[Zanks]

In terms of buying low on Lindor I mean that at this precise time it looks like there might only be 2-3 potential suitors for him (us, Mets...maybe that's it), and Cleveland looks like they have to deal him.

If we have Cleveland in a corner, we should be trading our surplus infielders for him. Hiraldo + Lopez + Jimenez, not our current OF.

My take on the regression issue:
If LG Jr has a poor start to the year, I would be holding out hope it's just a slump, and that he will recover for the remaining MULTIPLE years of control. He's one of the only guys in our system that looks like a competent OF - he does have ~ 1 yr of high level production.

At the trade deadline, I won't be wishing I had traded him for Lindor anymore than I would Vlad or Bichette or Biggio (presuming we could also get Lindor for the afformentioned three). I'd probably be worried about the fastly approaching FA period, and losing Lindor for a 2nd Rd draft pick.

Lindor just had an entire 60 game season of offensive regression, are you worried, or do you expect him to bounce back?

 

[Kurtz]

If we have Cleveland in a corner, we should be trading our surplus infielders for him. Hiraldo + Lopez + Jimenez, not our current OF.

My take on the regression issue:
If LG Jr has a poor start to the year, I would be holding out hope it's just a slump, and that he will recover for the remaining MULTIPLE years of control. He's one of the only guys in our system that looks like a competent OF - he does have ~ 1 yr of high level production.

At the trade deadline, I won't be wishing I had traded him for Lindor anymore than I would Vlad or Bichette or Biggio (presuming we could also get Lindor for the afformentioned three). I'd probably be worried about the fastly approaching FA period, and losing Lindor for a 2nd Rd draft pick.

Lindor just had an entire 60 game season of offensive regression, are you worried, or do you expect him to bounce back?

I'm not worried about Lindor's past season, no. Even in an off-year he was on pace for a 5 fWar season (in a 162 game season), and we know he's one of the best all-around players in baseball, and in his prime.

As for creating a hole by dealing Gurriel...it's just not hard to plug that by finding a ~800 OPS corner outfielder out there. We can sign Schwarber tomorrow for around $8m, and he's projected to put up 840 OPS (and the same 2.1 fWAR that Gurriel is projected to put up...although Gurriel's number is depressed by a smallish career sample size).

 

[Vito_81]

If it is Gurriel for Lindor.

How does the IF play out?

Vladdy to 3? Or does he stick to 1

Can Bo move to 3rd? Or can Biggio play 3?

 

[Bjindaho]

I'm not worried about Lindor's past season, no. Even in an off-year he was on pace for a 5 fWar season (in a 162 game season), and we know he's one of the best all-around players in baseball, and in his prime.

As for creating a hole by dealing Gurriel...it's just not hard to plug that by finding a ~800 OPS corner outfielder out there. We can sign Schwarber tomorrow for around $8m, and he's projected to put up 840 OPS (and the same 2.1 fWAR that Gurriel is projected to put up...although Gurriel's number is depressed by a smallish career sample size).

No, he wasn't. 1.7fWAR is 4.6 if he played 162 and 0.8 bWAR is 2.2.