Blue Jays Discussion: Off-season Pt II: It's the off-season in November!... Wait. That's normal for baseball.

[Bjindaho]

So you think Gurriel is going to improve at age 27, but Lindor being 35 days younger than him will *only* be a 5 WAR player? The guy that was a 7.6 WAR player at 24? The argument shouldn't be whether we'd do the trade Gurriel for Lindor, because it should be obvious. The questions we should be asking are:

1) Can we extend Lindor? - If no, trade talks should be dead
2) Does Gurriel have to be involved? If yes, do we have to trade a significant piece as an "add-on"?

If they're asking for another significant piece in the deal, we should just look somewhere else. Gurriel is a guy who in two different seasons has shown to be a well-above average major league hitter. Despite his injuries and lack of track record that is a fantastic piece for a team like Cleveland who is looking to be competitive and spend as little money as possible. I'm okay with adding a borderline top-20 prospect, but anything else is overkill imo.

1) Gurriel has 3 WAR in 130 games in Lf.

2) He has a mechanical flaw with his throwing from ONLY having 130 games.

3) He could be the best defensive LF in baseball if he fixes it.

An extension for Lindor has nearly 0 value since it will be at full price. You don't trade a Gurriel for Lindor, you trade prospects and replaceable parts.

 

[Cor]

I don't think Jays would do that unless there was extension in place. For 1 year of Lindor with Gurriel going? No thanks. Move on if thats the case.

It doesn’t fit the MO of Shapiro and Atkins to acquire a player with one year of control.

If we acquire Lindor, I am almost certain it’ll include an extension

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Morgs]

1) Gurriel has 3 WAR in 130 games in Lf.

2) He has a mechanical flaw with his throwing from ONLY having 130 games.

3) He could be the best defensive LF in baseball if he fixes it.

An extension for Lindor has nearly 0 value since it will be at full price. You don't trade a Gurriel for Lindor, you trade prospects and replaceable parts.

Okay, so you believe his fielding value will improve enough with his arm that not only will he become "the best defensive LF in baseball", but also that his value will match or exceed Lindor?

If Gurriel is what it takes, I don't let Lindor get traded to another team. We have the money to spend. Personally I'd rather spend it on a star like Lindor than say Roark & Grichuk.

 

[Bjindaho]

Okay, so you believe his fielding value will improve enough with his arm that not only will he become "the best defensive LF in baseball", but also that his value will match or exceed Lindor?

If Gurriel is what it takes, I don't let Lindor get traded to another team. We have the money to spend. Personally I'd rather spend it on a star like Lindor than say Roark & Grichuk.

I don't think Gurriel will be as good, but losing Gurriel either means Teoscar plays every day in the OF (with DH at bats to Tellez) or we need 2 OF.

 

[Zanks]

Okay, so you believe his fielding value will improve enough with his arm that not only will he become "the best defensive LF in baseball", but also that his value will match or exceed Lindor?

If Gurriel is what it takes, I don't let Lindor get traded to another team. We have the money to spend. Personally I'd rather spend it on a star like Lindor than say Roark & Grichuk.

What do you project Bo for this year at SS?

It's that difference that matters no?

With respect to WAR, we have holes at SP, Catcher, 3B and then CF/OF. We are expecting Bo to put up 3-6 WAR at SS right? We can solve these other problems with just money. Why are we spending money and sending out prospects creating an OF additional holes? It makes no sense to me. I think LG Jr profiles in LF better than Biggio no? Biggio is valuable at 2B. Why push him to a corner OF spot that diminishes his value?

 

[Morgs]

What do you project Bo for this year at SS?

It's that difference that matters no?

With respect to WAR, we have holes at SP, Catcher, 3B and then CF/OF. We are expecting Bo to put up 3-6 WAR at SS right? We can solve these other problems with just money. Why are we spending money and sending out prospects creating an OF additional holes? It makes no sense to me. I think LG Jr profiles in LF better than Biggio no? Biggio is valuable at 2B. Why push him to a corner OF spot that diminishes his value?

Steamer projects Bo as a 4.1 WAR player at SS with a defensive rating of +7. I just don't see the issue pushing him off to an "easier" position like 2B or 3B and playing a guy who projects to almost double Bo's defensive value at SS with a ~120 wRC+ bat.

I don't like the idea of trading Gurriel either as it creates a hole in the OF there's no guarantee we'll fix, and I'd be happy to grab him without one of Martin/Groshans/SWR/Orlevis either. I just believe that in baseball if you have the ability to trade a good player for a better player (regardless of positions), you should. Especially when they're the same age and ones best season is 0.1 fWAR better than the others worst. I know Gurriel has been the popular name out there, but I feel like people are getting attached to his potential when in reality it's not even certain if we've seen Lindor's true ceiling.

 

[Discoverer]

Steamer projects Bo as a 4.1 WAR player at SS with a defensive rating of +7. I just don't see the issue pushing him off to an "easier" position like 2B or 3B and playing a guy who projects to almost double Bo's defensive value at SS with a ~120 wRC+ bat.

I don't like the idea of trading Gurriel either as it creates a hole in the OF there's no guarantee we'll fix, and I'd be happy to grab him without one of Martin/Groshans/SWR/Orlevis either. I just believe that in baseball if you have the ability to trade a good player for a better player (regardless of positions), you should. Especially when they're the same age and ones best season is 0.1 fWAR better than the others worst. I know Gurriel has been the popular name out there, but I feel like people are getting attached to his potential when in reality it's not even certain if we've seen Lindor's true ceiling.

I don't even think it's Gurriel's potential... it's who he is now that I don't want to move.

I get the "good player for a better player" thing, but control and cost (huge pluses for Gurriel and minuses for Lindor) are a huge part of value and seem to have become more and more important in recent years.

 

[Bjindaho]

The money has to be a consideration. Paying 30M for a SS means 45M for everything else. No one in the AL East would offer for him and the market might honestly be limited.

NYM and Toronto are the only teams that seem to have any desire to take on a major salary.

 

[Morgs]

I don't even think it's Gurriel's potential... it's who he is now that I don't want to move.

I get the "good player for a better player" thing, but control and cost (huge pluses for Gurriel and minuses for Lindor) are a huge part of value and seem to have become more and more important in recent years.

I agree, money and flexibility is essential in baseball today, but if we're going to be spending big, the time would be now (obviously). I think the only reason their values are close today is SOLELY because of Gurriel's contract status. If we can sign Lindor long-term around ~$25 million I still think including their contracts his value would most likely far exceed Gurriel's.

If he was a FA today, he's by far the most ideal target out there in regards to our core. Just turned 27, has a 7.6 fWAR season in his bag, elite defensive player at arguably the most important defensive position, coming from a poor hitting park, has a relationship with our FO, by all accounts a game changer personality wise. Our stars aren't going to be getting paid for years, we have no contracts past 2023, and the money spent would still allow us to go out and grab another big name or two. I don't think trading Gurriel is ideal, but I'd rather trade him and extend Lindor than I would like to see Lindor go to a different team.

 

[Bjindaho]

I agree, money and flexibility is essential in baseball today, but if we're going to be spending big, the time would be now (obviously). I think the only reason their values are close today is SOLELY because of Gurriel's contract status. If we can sign Lindor long-term around ~$25 million I still think including their contracts his value would most likely far exceed Gurriel's.

If he was a FA today, he's by far the most ideal target out there in regards to our core. Just turned 27, has a 7.6 fWAR season in his bag, elite defensive player at arguably the most important defensive position, coming from a poor hitting park, has a relationship with our FO, by all accounts a game changer personality wise. Our stars aren't going to be getting paid for years, we have no contracts past 2023, and the money spent would still allow us to go out and grab another big name or two. I don't think trading Gurriel is ideal, but I'd rather trade him and extend Lindor than I would like to see Lindor go to a different team.

He should be the top FA next year, so while he could make 25 this year, a long term deal is likely 30+.

If I am moving Gurriel, it is for someone like Sonny Gray or Carlos Carrasco.

 

[Morgs]

He should be the top FA next year, so while he could make 25 this year, a long term deal is likely 30+.

If I am moving Gurriel, it is for someone like Sonny Gray or Carlos Carrasco.

 

[TheBeastCoast]

Getting into crazy town now.

 

[Zanks]

If I'm trading LG Jr it's maybe for Wheeler. That's contingent on us spending FA dollars to back fill LF (so Springer etc.)

Just wait a year to sign Lindor.
Steamer 'only' projects Lindor for 5.1 WAR. That's an increase of ~1 WAR on Bo.

We can gain more aggregate WAR by signing Springer or Realmuto. And that frees up Jansen to address SP. Lindor is just a really sub-optimal use of resources IMO. And its only for a year.

 

[hockeywiz542]

 

[Discoverer]

Yeah, that's... a weird one.

For me, I only include Gurriel in a Lindor trade if it's part of a bigger deal that brings a pitcher like Carrasco back as well. But that becomes complicated because if Cleveland move Lindor AND one of their good pitchers, they're probably moving towards a rebuild instead of a retool, in which case they probably don't care too much if they get a current major league talent like Gurriel and would be more open to a deal around prospects. It's a vicious cycle.

I also don't see why people think Cleveland is specifically focused on major league ready talent after what they got in the Clevinger deal. And even if they do, you can build a deal where the main piece is a prospect and the secondary pieces are the MLB pieces (Rowdy, Espinal, Fisher, Kay, Hatch, etc.) It's not like building a trade around Groshans or Martinez or something is offering "garbage" for a star. They can easily make a fair deal or even overpay without including an important piece of the current roster.

 

[Bjindaho]

Sonny Gray is a potential inexpensive stud. With his availability being based on Cincy needing to shed payroll in a hurry, I wonder if taking Votto's contract could reduce what we'd need to give up to spare parts.

Edit: Thinking Roark for both before anyone misunderstands

 

[Woodman19]

Sonny Gray is a potential inexpensive stud. With his availability being based on Cincy needing to shed payroll in a hurry, I wonder if taking Votto's contract could reduce what we'd need to give up to spare parts.

Edit: Thinking Roark for both before anyone misunderstands

What value would Votto have to us?

 

[Puckstuff]

I'd rather move Teo, but if it's for a signed Lindor, then heck yeah.

I’ll think I’d Teo for signed Lindor. Let’s keep Gurriel.

Biggio or maybe even Springer (Cf then later RF) would replace Teo in the outfield with both providing better defence as well.

 

[Bjindaho]

What value would Votto have to us?

Little if any. But we'd add 28M in payroll and get a stud pitcher.

 

[Woodman19]

Little if any. But we'd add 28M in payroll and get a stud pitcher.

Why not go for Miguel Cabrera instead?

 

[Bjindaho]

Why not go for Miguel Cabrera instead?

The idea was to take on salary to dramatically reduce acquisition cost.

If Votto turns it around, that deal becomes hilarious, but more likely it is Roark for Gray and an albatross.

 

[Woodman19]

The idea was to take on salary to dramatically reduce acquisition cost.

If Votto turns it around, that deal becomes hilarious, but more likely it is Roark for Gray and an albatross.

What about Moustakas or Castellanos then? At least they could play positions of need. Or is there some other reason I don't know about that makes you want to take on so much money?

 

[Bjindaho]

What about Moustakas or Castellanos then? At least they could play positions of need. Or is there some other reason I don't know about that makes you want to take on so much money?

It depends on them.

They would make the deal more expensive, but would also have more value to us.

 

[leafsfan2point0]

I’m not too keen on trading Gurriel Jr. A combo of Lindor and Bichette definitely would be deadly though.