Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 14th: Who is bigger, Dickey or Johnson?
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Look, the fact of the matter is, is that Edwin always had reasonably good plate discipline. Did it improve last year? Yes. Did it improve to a point where he went from striking out 30 percent of the time and walking 5 percent of the time, to striking out 15 percent of the time and walking 13 percent of the time? Not even ****ing close.
You can improve to a degree, but to expect J.P. to go from walking 5 percent of the time to 10 percent, and from striking out 30 percent of the time to 20 percent (which is pretty average plate discipline). That simply won't happen. It would be different if he showed plate discipline in the minors, because you could say that he simply hasn't made the adjustments yet. He's never shown a good approach at the plate, and I certainly don't expect him to suddenly, out of the blue, develop one.
I wasn't connecting it to JPA. You said that no one can just improve the plate discipline in 1 offseason and I was pointing out that EE did that. I wasn't trying to pt JPA and EE in the same class.
Look, the fact of the matter is, is that Edwin always had reasonably good plate discipline. Did it improve last year? Yes. Did it improve to a point where he went from striking out 30 percent of the time and walking 5 percent of the time, to striking out 15 percent of the time and walking 13 percent of the time? Not even ****ing close.
Leafsdude7
Stand-Up Philosopher
I disagree. With the former, you'll never see the 80 without a 95 appearing. In the latter, there'll be the odd series where you'll see a 95 fastball, a 90 fastball and then an 80-85 knuckle. I don't like that, especially since Dickey throws an 85-90 (and sometimes as low as 80) fastball.
I disagree with this wholly, especially when you've got two lefties that are as different as Buehrle and Romero and your two similar righties split up by a righty that throws a pitch no one else in the league throws. You also gotta consider that in a number of the games you're going to see the righty replaced by a lefty from the bullpen or vice versa. The angle a batter sees from a starter in one game is probably not going to throw them off much in the next.
Yeah, that's great, except I actually did watch a ton games last year (likely more than the vast majority of you who are suddenly Jays fans), and stats do tell you those things. Stats aren't used for scouting, per se. You don't look at the stats to see how beautiful Rasmus' swing is, you look at the stats to tell you how well that swing is actually performing.
Edwin's plate-discipline did improve, and the stats show that, but you can't even put Edwin and J.P. in the same class in terms of their approach. Edwin's approach is so much better than Arencibia's. IF you people honestly expect J.P. to improve his plate discipline to the point where it's an asset (or, hell, not a weakness), then I don't know what to tell you.
King Mapes
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The Nemesis
Semper Tyrannus
He had a ton of strikeouts last year. That said, his 2012 rate was significantly higher than it was in the previous years. In fact he had only 8 fewer strikeouts in 2012 than he did in 2010 and 2011 combined. So he might not be among the K leaders this year.
weems
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Great post.
This is more a issue amongst baseball fans then any other sport. You think this board is bad, go on the Jays main website and its infested with stat nerds who think the game can be totally figured out on a computer. Now in saying that I do like some of the stats used like OPS and WAR but some of the stats Ive seen used are so crazy and way overanalyzing the sport. This board is actually a awesome place to talk baseball compared to pretty much everywhere else on the net.
I thought of that but didn't feel like getting into a debate on JPA for the thousandth time.
Do you have any evidence that lefty - righty - lefty is any different than righty - lefty - lefty?
I haven't followed this whole conversation, but I will say that in an interview yesterday Gibby basically said that RA was the club's opening day pitcher and that he thought the splitting up of their lefties was a good idea. He did add that the rotation was subject to further discussions however.
From what the article I read yesterday said, and what most on here have been speculating, the main question is will JJ be #2 or #4.
Boni is a big defensive downgrade at 2nd and Izuris would be a huge defensive downgrade in the outfield.
I dont think people really understand the concept of the supersub. Boni will still get into almost every game while playing that roll. Either by coming in during the game or starting several while rotating around to give others a break.
I didn't say anything about one offseason? Where did you get that from? I said it's not suddenly learned, and it isn't. You can improve it, but you can't learn it.
Edwin has always had a good plate discipline. Look at his BB% with the Reds, look at his minor-league numbers. There was always reason to believe that Edwin would (and should) walk 10+ percent of the time. The same simply can't be said for Arencibia.
Dont' know if this was posted, but the Jays now have the highest odds to win the World Series in the MLB. (8/1)
http://www.betvega.com/world-series-odds/
http://www.betvega.com/world-series-odds/
Joe Hallenback
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- Mar 4, 2005
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Moneyball failed to mention that the A's had 3 of the best young pitchers in the game at the time in Zito,Hudson and Mulder. All 3 guys drafted and developed by the A's. The movie and the book make it seem like the A's didn't have one of the best scouting staffs and development systems in baseball. It made them seem like dinosaurs. It made that A's team which had those pitchers above plus Billy Koch,Miguel Tejada,Eric Chavez and Jermain Dye a team of nobodies that relied on Hatterberg,David Justice and Chad Bradford for wins.
Animal
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- Oct 10, 2012
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weems
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- Jul 3, 2008
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Crazy AA has been able to do this in such a short timeframe.
Sure these futures odds dont gurantee anything but its exciting to see outsiders think so highly of this roster.
Something got lost in translation here. In a 3-game series where game 1 and 2 are pitched by Buehrle (btw, why does everyone spell his name wrong?) and Romero, the 3rd pitcher will be Johnson or Morrow. That means that, at worst, Dickey is the first pitcher in a 3-game series that will also feature Morrow/Johnson and Buehrle/Romero.
That's why Morrow/Johnson should be our opening day starter.
Honestly, the arguement can go either way, but the fact is Romero has some velocity on his FB as well, so "sandwiching" Dickey between him and Morrow is just as good, but gives an even bigger fall off for when teams are following up Morrow with Buehrle and then the jump back to Johnson and then the lefty in Romero. With Dickey as the ace, there's more balance in any given 3-game set, as well as any pair of games you may want to look at...
Dickey - Morrow
Morrow - Buehrle
Buehrle - Johnson
Johnson - Romero
Romero - Dickey
None of those are easy transitions. I'm not saying that Buehrle - Romero is an easy transition, but I think it's easier than Buehrle - Johnson. Then you look at a 3 game sets and there's almost always a back-and forth going on...
Dickey - Morrow - Buehrle
Johnson - Romero - Dickey
Morrow - Buehrle - Johnson
Romero - Dickey - Morrow
Buehrle - Johnson - Romero
Ohio Jones
Game on...
Part marks.
You're right, there is more to the game than just what stats can tell you, and that's why managers, coaches, scouts and GMs combine advanced statistical analysis with everything from video analysis to psychological makeup assessments to biometrics to the naked eye (several naked eyes, actually) to get a complete picture of a player.
And yes, it's a good idea to use stats to help you evaluate matchups - in any sport - and help to predict likely outcomes. But stats are next to useless when predicting any single game's outcome. They're really only useful in aggregate across a large sample size to indicate trends and probabilities.
It's fair to look at the stats and say a healthy Encarnacion is likely to hit more home runs over the course of a season than a healthy Bonifacio will. But it's impossible to look at stats and say with certainty that Encarnacion will hit a home run in a particular game and Bonifacio will not.
Oops, that was a my bad. I thought you said that somewhere.
You said, "That's an awful, awful example. He had two season where he had BB% over 10 when he played for the Reds."
King Mapes
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Dayjobdave
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- Apr 29, 2010
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it eliminates the ability to use situational lefty and righty pitchers for more than an at bat at a time.
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