Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 14th: Who is bigger, Dickey or Johnson?

[Natey]

If AA could still somehow upgrade on Lind then the off season will be complete for me. Although, that hole could be plugged during the season.

2B is still a bigger hole than Lind - as I think Izturis will start. But then again, there aren't many great defensive 2Bs that are great with the bat either.

 

[TieClark]

A huge reason why EE had such a great season last season was because of his much improved plate discipline. You could tell that he was laying off pitches that he would normally swing at. I don't need to look at stats when I can just the damn game.

Thank you... the amount of stat freaks on here in unreal.

"X player had a "insert random equation stat" and his "xbng+5=11" was better so obviously he was better wtf are you talking about?!?"

 

[Natey]

A huge reason why EE had such a great season last season was because of his much improved plate discipline. You could tell that he was laying off pitches that he would normally swing at. I don't need to look at stats when I can just the damn game.

I agree 100%. And yes, he had seasons where he had a BB% over 10% (this year was still 3% higher) but you could also tell he was laying off pitches and waiting for pitches he wanted - which he didn't use to do. And the BB% doesn't tell you that.

Thank you... the amount of stat freaks on here in unreal

Stats are great, however, people start overvaluing them rather than just watching the games. And like the above example, stats that don't tell the whole story. Stats are great tools to use to help scouting, but your eyes will be a better tool. A fool could tell how much Lind's swing was improved last year after his recall. A fool could tell you how much Edwin's discipline improved last season. Those are things that stats can't always tell.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

2B is still a bigger hole than Lind - as I think Izturis will start. But then again, there aren't many great defensive 2Bs that are great with the bat either.

Maybe Robbie can come taste the McCain Punch one more time?

 

[dredeye]

Thank you... the amount of stat freaks on here in unreal.

"X player had a "insert random equation stat" and his "xbng+5=11" was better so obviously he was better wtf are you talking about?!?"

Stats are confusing and scary. All they can do is actually give a clear picture of what a player has done. Why can't people just use twitter to find out who's good and who's funny and good teammate. That's much more important.

 

[Fantomas]

2B is still a bigger hole than Lind - as I think Izturis will start. But then again, there aren't many great defensive 2Bs that are great with the bat either.

Disagree. Izturis is pretty decent and Bonifacio can also play the position.

The problem is the lack of a solid left handed bat to follow Encarnacion in the five slot.

Neither Lind nor Rasmus can be trusted there.

 

[The Nemesis]

I agree 100%. And yes, he had seasons where he had a BB% over 10% (this year was still 3% higher) but you could also tell he was laying off pitches and waiting for pitches he wanted - which he didn't use to do. And the BB% doesn't tell you that.


Stats are great, however, people start overvaluing them rather than just watching the games. And like the above example, stats that don't tell the whole story. Stats are great tools to use to help scouting, but your eyes will be a better tool. A fool could tell how much Lind's swing was improved last year after his recall. A fool could tell you how much Edwin's discipline improved last season. Those are things that stats can't always tell.

If you use them right, yes they can. This is the biggest problem I have with the anti-stats crowd. Most of their problems with stats and deeming them as less useful or stupid/pointless tends to come with either not using the right stats, not using the stats properly, or just plain not understanding them. There are plenty of times to criticize stats usage or rightly say that stats can't always address specific questions or issues that are raised. The point of stats is that they're objective and impartial. One of the biggest points that moneyball was making was that a lot of the inefficiencies that the A's exploited existed because scouts and baseball managers did nothing but trust their eyes and got lied to by them. No stathead worth their argument is going to tell you that we should stop watching games and just read data sheets. But at the end of the day, if my eyes say one thing, and the numbers say another, I'm leaning toward trusting the thing that isn't colored by folksy baseball truisms that often end up being utterly wrong.

 

[Clark4Ever]

Imagine if even one of Drabek, Hutchinson, Cecil, or McGowan is able to return to their previous form at some point next season. The Jays can still have a deadly rotation moving forward even if Johnson doesn't sign a contract extension.

 

[Stats01]

Random tidbit.

From Griffin's Chat today:

how many times do you think the Jays (finally) make it to ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball this year?

Apparently Dan Shulman is lobbying hard for at least three.
by Richard Griffin 1:34 PM


If that is true, that is awesome! Gotta love Shulman.

 

[theaub]

Good thing there are stats to see if the Edwin stuff is true!

O-Swing% (% of pitches swung at out of zone)
2010: 30.5%
2011: 29.3%
2012: 24.5%
Career: 25.6%

Z-Swing% (% of pitches swung at in zone)
2010: 69.8%
2011: 68.2%
2012: 62.2%
Career: 67.8%

So in conclusion, Edwin certainly laid off more pitches last year than at any other point during his time as a Blue Jay. However, he laid off similar amounts of pitches with Cincinnati, so really the 2010-2011 was less indicative of his plate discipline compared to his career norms. He did take a lot more pitches in the strike zone, and perhaps that was his greatest improvment; not swinging at low quality strikes.

In tl;dr conclusion, both sides are pretty much right here.

 

[amyles]

Does Dickey get a lot of strikeouts? or his he more of a ground ball and fly ball pitcher?

 

[King Mapes]

Thank you... the amount of stat freaks on here in unreal.

"X player had a "insert random equation stat" and his "xbng+5=11" was better so obviously he was better wtf are you talking about?!?"

Honestly, my biggest pet peeve watching baseball. Ill hate the day they come up with a formula in hockey to determine "luck".

Though people are using shooting percentage a lot more the past few years

 

[Stats01]

Does Dickey get a lot of strikeouts? or his he more of a ground ball and fly ball pitcher?

Strikeouts. He threw 230 last season in 233 innings.

 

[Dr.Funk]

Does Dickey get a lot of strikeouts? or his he more of a ground ball and fly ball pitcher?

Led the NL I believe.

 

[Natey]

If you use them right, yes they can. This is the biggest problem I have with the anti-stats crowd. Most of their problems with stats and deeming them as less useful or stupid/pointless tends to come with either not using the right stats, not using the stats properly, or just plain not understanding them. There are plenty of times to criticize stats usage or rightly say that stats can't always address specific questions or issues that are raised. The point of stats is that they're objective and impartial. One of the biggest points that moneyball was making was that a lot of the inefficiencies that the A's exploited existed because scouts and baseball managers did nothing but trust their eyes and got lied to by them. No stathead worth their argument is going to tell you that we should stop watching games and just read data sheets. But at the end of the day, if my eyes say one thing, and the numbers say another, I'm leaning toward trusting the thing that isn't colored by folksy baseball truisms that often end up being utterly wrong.

I'm not anti-stats. I'm not pro-stats. I use them as a tool, but they don't always tell the whole story when used.

However, there are lots of times people use stats that don't tell the whole story - like the above BB%. That statistic is concrete if used to tell you how often a player walks but it doesn't tell you the player has developed or always had a good eye. It gives you an idea but doesn't tell you the story.

I use stats a lot - as you can see. So you can tell I'm not anti-stats, but sometimes they just don't work, IMO.

I guess my point is more-so using statistics in the wrong place. Aub clearly showed all of us up here by providing a stat that is a lot more concrete for the situation.

Good thing there are stats to see if the Edwin stuff is true!

O-Swing% (% of pitches swung at out of zone)
2010: 30.5%
2011: 29.3%
2012: 24.5%
Career: 25.6%

Z-Swing% (% of pitches swung at in zone)
2010: 69.8%
2011: 68.2%
2012: 62.2%
Career: 67.8%

So in conclusion, Edwin certainly laid off more pitches last year than at any other point during his time as a Blue Jay. However, he laid off similar amounts of pitches with Cincinnati, so really the 2010-2011 was less indicative of his plate discipline compared to his career norms. He did take a lot more pitches in the strike zone, and perhaps that was his greatest improvment; not swinging at low quality strikes.

In tl;dr conclusion, both sides are pretty much right here.

Thanks for that aub. I couldn't find those stats, started to think they didn't exist.

And yeah, I wasn't extremely familiar with Edwin as a Red. Maybe he had a better eye with them then us.. but as a Jay, he sucked at taking pitches until last year.

 

[Puckstuff]

John Buck's inclusion and the Mets absorption of his salary came about because the Blue Jays were at their financial limit, according to Anthopoulos (via Rubin).
Read more at http://www.mlbtraderumors.com/toronto_blue_jays/#8avGXQ4Ek4lZ5i8i.99

Although Anthopolous could never admitt it, I bet the cost to get the Mets to take on Buck was Syndergard. D'arnaud for Dickey is as fair as you can get... But when you add in the flexibility of Dickey's contract (5 mill for an ace) and in the process get rid of Buck (6 mill for a bench player) We had to add a significant prospect. 6 million dollars may not seem like a lot with the way we have been spending; but the fact we were at the budget proves it was. We werent just adding an ACE, we were adding and ace and giving up a bench player, and in the process saving money.

 

[Leafsdude7]

If you do that for the first series - you're going to have Dickey play the last game against a team that just faced Buerhle and Romero, and will probably be able to act accordingly. There is ways too look at this both ways.

Something got lost in translation here. In a 3-game series where game 1 and 2 are pitched by Buehrle (btw, why does everyone spell his name wrong? ) and Romero, the 3rd pitcher will be Johnson or Morrow. That means that, at worst, Dickey is the first pitcher in a 3-game series that will also feature Morrow/Johnson and Buehrle/Romero.

That's why Morrow/Johnson should be our opening day starter.

 

[TieClark]

Stats are confusing and scary. All they can do is actually give a clear picture of what a player has done. Why can't people just use twitter to find out who's good and who's funny and good teammate. That's much more important.

lol but they don't... not at all. They give people who don't actually watch the games a false belief that they know what players do.

 

[dredeye]

Strikeouts. He threw 230 last season in 233 innings.

Last year was crazy though. It's tough to gage him because last here he almost doubled his k/9 rate from his two previous season and really his career averages as a whole.

 

[Bjindaho]

lol how do you figure that? Knuckleballer, fire thrower, soft innings eater, fire thrower, Romero while going lefty/righty all the way through is helping the hitter how? Or are you just ignoring the 4/5 spots of the rotation? The only difference is one of Johnson or Morrow pitches a day later behind a workhorse.

It's the same reason you don't throw fastball, slider, curve. By gradually decreasing, you give the hitter a chance to make gradual adjustments. Going fireballer, knuckler, fireballer, soft tosser is a better idea.

 

[TieClark]

I've been using stats to make my football picks every weekend. I've gone through and looked at teams offence passing, rushing and points and their defence passing, rushing and points. I've looked at home/away splits, games against the same team etc.

Last week Detroit beat Arizona in every single matchup and yet got blown out. The stats didn't lie... they weren't wrong. It's just that sports is far more than numbers.

 

[Bjindaho]

No, they're not.

Plate discipline isn't suddenly learned (you said it yourself in your post). That's J.P.'s biggest issue offensively.

That should have said aren't

 

[trellaine201]

I didnt realize swisher has had a damn good career offensively. How much will he get? Pretty consistent!

 

[dredeye]

Although Anthopolous could never admitt it, I bet the cost to get the Mets to take on Buck was Syndergard. D'arnaud for Dickey is as fair as you can get... But when you add in the flexibility of Dickey's contract (5 mill for an ace) and in the process get rid of Buck (6 mill for a bench player) We had to add a significant prospect. 6 million dollars may not seem like a lot with the way we have been spending; but the fact we were at the budget proves it was. We werent just adding an ACE, we were adding and ace and giving up a bench player, and in the process saving money.

I don't agree with this at all really. I think we may have had to improve our offer but I don't think it was a if you take Buck we'll give you Noah scenario at all.

What I will say that your post just made me realize. How ****ing crazy is it that John Buck will make more money than R.A Dickey next year.

 

[TieClark]

It's the same reason you don't throw fastball, slider, curve. By gradually decreasing, you give the hitter a chance to make gradual adjustments. Going fireballer, knuckler, fireballer, soft tosser is a better idea.

Going 95+, 80, 95+, 85, 90 isn't helping the batter any more than 80, 95+, 85+, 95+, 90 yet righty,lefty throughout does help more than righty x3, lefty x2