Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 14th: Who is bigger, Dickey or Johnson?

[BertCorbeau]

I've heard some talk of the Jays wanting to talk to Lance Berkman and see what he thinks about being a part time player (1b/dh/bat off the bench). He's obviously wanted to go back to Houston but may be a lot harder now that they signed Pena.

He'd be a great pickup

Normally I'm super sceptical of teams that are favoured based on a lot of moves made in the offseason that make them look great on paper, and while I'm still cautious for the Jays, I think the hype is legit.

I think mostly because the big moves circle around pitching, the Jays downfall last year. Pitching is so independent of any other position in baseball, that you can bring in good arms and will see increased success of a team soley because of that. Add in some better 'on-base' guys with more speed, to go along with the power in our line up plus some reasonable projected growth from some of our young guys gives me a lot of confidence that AA has gelled the team together perfectly. And not by just signing a bunch of guys to hopefully let them work out. Quality bullpen depth helps too, I think there are a good number of quality arms that have closer potential should Janssen or Santos fall.

I've never been so excited to see the Jays pitch day in and out .. Watching line ups go from a knuckler, to a power arm, to a lefty finesse, back to a power arm, and another lefty finesse pitcher ... Should be fun to see

 

[Felstead]

I'd be 100% fine with that depth chart as the starting rotation.

Maybe we also only run with 3 bench bats. We have so many players that can play multiple positions this year that maybe we run with a bench of Bonifacio/Izturis, Davis, Thole.

That way Cooper gets playing time in the minors and we can keep Cecil up.

Would still like to see R.A in between Johnson and Morrow though. Keeps the other team on the edge

 

[TieClark]

Would still like to see R.A in between Johnson and Morrow though. Keeps the other team on the edge

I would expect the rotation to be Dickey, Johnson/Morrow, Beurhle, Johnson/Morrow, Romero.

 

[Felstead]

I would expect the rotation to be Dickey, Johnson/Morrow, Beurhle, Johnson/Morrow, Romero.

Pete walker on the fan today was asked if dickey would fit In between 2 flamethrowers and I'm pretty sure he answered it would be a good idea. Obviously leaving the end decision To management. I'm gonna say it would be a great idea.

 

[Bjindaho]

I read moneyball recently so I put value on it, I just don't know enough other baseball stuff for me to formulate a well thought out opinion of anything

Moneyball basically pointed out how the A's exploited traditionalists use of batting average to denote guys that get on and homers as a sign of power. It points out that while Ichiro was a great contact hitter, he only walked 5.9% of the time during his career, so when his contact dropped off, he'd decline drastically (which he has). It points out that while Tony Batista 6 consecutive times, he was only actually a good power hitter in 2 of those years (thanks to his lack of doubles and was actually a good power hitter in 1 season where he only hit 18).

The JPA arguments stem from him having an eerily similar stat line to Tony Batista. The problem with the comparison as I see it lies in JP's RISP. That tells me that he was getting bad instruction going to the plate. JPA can be a .260 hitter under his current hitting profile (previously calculated the OPS as .753 IIRC). If he changes his profile (ie starts hitting doubles, strikes out less), then he can become a good hitter. His defense is also improving. He is a coachable kid, but his problems are those that usually go away.

 

[TieClark]

Pete walker on the fan today was asked if dickey would fit In between 2 flamethrowers and I'm pretty sure he answered it would be a good idea. Obviously leaving the end decision To management. I'm gonna say it would be a great idea.

It is a good idea, but when you have a mix of lefty/righty you use that as well. Romero isn't exactly a soft tosser... he throws mid-low 90's so Dickey would be in between him and Johnson or Morrow followed by Beurhle who isn't Dickey but isn't a hard thrower either followed by another flame thrower

 

[canucksfan]

I'm so excited for the season already.

 

[AndMat*]

I would expect the rotation to be Dickey, Johnson/Morrow, Beurhle, Johnson/Morrow, Romero.

The Rotation should be
Dickey
Morrow
Beurhle
Johnson
Romero

 

[Bjindaho]

It is a good idea, but when you have a mix of lefty/righty you use that as well. Romero isn't exactly a soft tosser... he throws mid-low 90's so Dickey would be in between him and Johnson or Morrow followed by Beurhle who isn't Dickey but isn't a hard thrower either followed by another flame thrower

No you don't. The point of Johnson - Dickey - Morrow is to mess with timing. Using Romero or Buerhle in there allows for a gradual adjustment (almost helps the hitters).

 

[Bjindaho]

The Rotation should be
Dickey
Morrow
Beurhle
Johnson
Romero

Based on? I can't see any logical reason for this. We want one of Johnson/Morrow starting game 1 against Boston. We also want to maximize Dickey, which this doesn't do.

 

[smitty10]

Based on? I can't see any logical reason for this. We want one of Johnson/Morrow starting game 1 against Boston. We also want to maximize Dickey, which this doesn't do.

AA said that he's the Ace.

Does anyone have a link to the Dickey conference call?

 

[Drunken Crunker]

AA said that he's the Ace.

Does anyone have a link to the Dickey conference call?

There won't be one. Apparently they are not allowed to. However, if you have twitter, Davidi and Wilner do a good job recapping it.

 

[theaub]

Strategy in the rotation will be out the window by mid-April and the first off-day, and that's if we're lucky and no one gets hurt.

 

[RoyIsALegend]

The fact that people are even posting rotations with variances from Johnson at #1 or #4 shows the quality depth. These are "debates" that I will gladly have with a smile on my face.

 

[TieClark]

No you don't. The point of Johnson - Dickey - Morrow is to mess with timing. Using Romero or Buerhle in there allows for a gradual adjustment (almost helps the hitters).

lol how do you figure that? Knuckleballer, fire thrower, soft innings eater, fire thrower, Romero while going lefty/righty all the way through is helping the hitter how? Or are you just ignoring the 4/5 spots of the rotation? The only difference is one of Johnson or Morrow pitches a day later behind a workhorse.

 

[TieClark]

Strategy in the rotation will be out the window by mid-April and the first off-day, and that's if we're lucky and no one gets hurt.

Days off won't result in skipping starts with a rotation this deep.

 

[Natey]

Uh, no, not necessarily. For me to consider them a good hitter, they have to be, statistically, a good hitter. He's good at getting on base, but he strikes out far too much for someone with no power, he doesn't make a whole lot of contact, which you hope for from someone with no power, and while he gets on base at a decent clip, that doesn't make up for the fact that he literally no power, and he doesn't make very good contact. I use wRC+ to base much of my opinion, because it's the best hitting statistic available to the general public, and it takes far more into account than just power and/or OBP.

And that's fine.. that's your opinion. My opinion is that I like OBP much more than any other statistic (and this is how teams go after different players.. everyone values certain things differently ). I agree that he's not a great hitter, but I think he's perfect for the type of role he hits. And I guess I was making a mistake by valuing him as just a hitter. It makes no sense to argue that for the type of player here. So instead of that I'll say he's a solid offensive player. Not great, damn sure not excellent, but he gets on base and swipes bags. And that's solid from a guy who will be at the bottom of the order.

 

[smitty10]

The fact that people are even posting rotations with variances from Johnson at #1 or #4 shows the quality depth. These are "debates" that I will gladly have with a smile on my face.

Very true. I think with Dickey coming in it's safe to say that Johnson won't be the #1 guy, but I think he's a very good #2. I'd love to see the Johnson-Dickey-Morrow rotation next year. It doesn't make sense to go right-right-right-left-left, though. IMO, the rotation will be:

1. RA Dickey
2. Josh Johnson
3. Mark Beurhle
4. Brandon Morrow
5. Ricky Romero

With JA Happ and Chad Jenkins to fall back on incase of injury.

I don't think that my ordering the rotation is just putting the 'shiny, new things' before the names I'm used too seeing. However, I think these guys were acquired to be a top 3 for this rotation and have the talent to do so. Dickey is the ace of this squad and sits in the #1 spot for this reason. I put Johnson at #2 because of his speed and proven ability to be a top guy on a roster. Buehrle makes sense as the #3 because he's a veteran lefty and a big inning eater. He'll provide stability to the middle of the rotation. Morrow will slot in at #4 with his power and K ability and will be dominant in that spot. Romero is at #5 because of last season and hope this is a spot he can rebound in.

 

[91Kadri91*]

Moneyball basically pointed out how the A's exploited traditionalists use of batting average to denote guys that get on and homers as a sign of power. It points out that while Ichiro was a great contact hitter, he only walked 5.9% of the time during his career, so when his contact dropped off, he'd decline drastically (which he has). It points out that while Tony Batista 6 consecutive times, he was only actually a good power hitter in 2 of those years (thanks to his lack of doubles and was actually a good power hitter in 1 season where he only hit 18).

The JPA arguments stem from him having an eerily similar stat line to Tony Batista. The problem with the comparison as I see it lies in JP's RISP. That tells me that he was getting bad instruction going to the plate. JPA can be a .260 hitter under his current hitting profile (previously calculated the OPS as .753 IIRC). If he changes his profile (ie starts hitting doubles, strikes out less), then he can become a good hitter. His defense is also improving. He is a coachable kid, but his problems are those that usually go away.

No, they're not.

Plate discipline isn't suddenly learned (you said it yourself in your post). That's J.P.'s biggest issue offensively.

 

[Jozay]

No, they're not.

Plate discipline isn't suddenly learned (you said it yourself in your post). That's J.P.'s biggest issue offensively.

Edwin Encarnacion?

 

[Silver91]

Very true. I think with Dickey coming in it's safe to say that Johnson won't be the #1 guy, but I think he's a very good #2. I'd love to see the Johnson-Dickey-Morrow rotation next year. It doesn't make sense to go right-right-right-left-left, though. IMO, the rotation will be:

1. RA Dickey
2. Josh Johnson
3. Mark Beurhle
4. Brandon Morrow
5. Ricky Romero

With JA Happ and Chad Jenkins to fall back on incase of injury.

I don't think that my ordering the rotation is just putting the 'shiny, new things' before the names I'm used too seeing. However, I think these guys were acquired to be a top 3 for this rotation and have the talent to do so. Dickey is the ace of this squad and sits in the #1 spot for this reason. I put Johnson at #2 because of his speed and proven ability to be a top guy on a roster. Buehrle makes sense as the #3 because he's a veteran lefty and a big inning eater. He'll provide stability to the middle of the rotation. Morrow will slot in at #4 with his power and K ability and will be dominant in that spot. Romero is at #5 because of last season and hope this is a spot he can rebound in.

I agree with the set-up of this rotation. It could end up with JJ and Morrow flipped, because Morrow could be the best pitcher on this team still, but that's just a testament to how good this rotation can be. I love having the knuckleballer who can pitch 7-8 innings most nights followed by a guy who can hit 95 into the 7/8th inning followed by a soft-tosser and then another flame-thrower before we come to last season's opening day starter.The balance in this rotation alone will mess with batters' heads.

Can't wait to wear my Morrow jersey at the home opener!

 

[91Kadri91*]

Edwin Encarnacion?

Did you actually bother to look at any stats, or did you just pull a name out of your ***?

That's an awful, awful example. He had two season where he had BB% over 10 when he played for the Reds.

 

[Natey]

No you don't. The point of Johnson - Dickey - Morrow is to mess with timing. Using Romero or Buerhle in there allows for a gradual adjustment (almost helps the hitters).

That's only going to help the hitters if we get the rotation in the exact right spot though.

If you do that for the first series - you're going to have Dickey play the last game against a team that just faced Buerhle and Romero, and will probably be able to act accordingly. There is ways too look at this both ways.

I'd rather use a lefty/righty combo as much as possible because with the difference in speeds and the differences in hands, it's going to mess teams up enough anyway.

Plus, I'd love Dickey to open after Cleveland goes through spring training mostly facing kids who are trying to throw really hard to impress. Coming out of spring training right into a knuckleballer can't be fun. After that, throw in Johnson or Morrow and they are going to have a hard time catching up.

After that, it's pretty much a "whatever the schedule ends up like" scenario. So that's why a righty/lefty combo works best because that will happen regardless of the rotation for a certain series. The only righty/righty combo in the rotation this way is a knuckleballer right to a flamethrower. If Dickey happens to end a series, that's fine too because we're right back to righty/lefty/right.

Dickey (R)
Morrow/Johnson (R)
Buerhle (L)
Morrow/Johnson (R)
Romero (L)
Dickey (R)
Morrow/Johnson (R)
etc

I'd probably put Morrow at #2 to give him the "easier" games - that way Johnson can prove he deserves to be here. Not that Morrow will have it easy, but I'd rather face a flamethrower after a regular pitcher than a knuckleballer.

 

[Suntouchable13]

If AA could still somehow upgrade on Lind then the off season will be complete for me. Although, that hole could be plugged during the season.

 

[Jozay]

Did you actually bother to look at any stats, or did you just pull a name out of your ***?

That's an awful, awful example. He had two season where he had BB% over 10 when he played for the Reds.

A huge reason why EE had such a great season last season was because of his much improved plate discipline. You could tell that he was laying off pitches that he would normally swing at. I don't need to look at stats when I can just the damn game.