Blue Jays Discussion: Off-Season Madness the 14th: Who is bigger, Dickey or Johnson?

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An update on our prospect situation. Took this from the main Blue Jays message board.

http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/12/5/3731258/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2013

3) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Grade B+: Borderline A-: Stuff is even better than Syndergaard's, three plus pitches, but needs to sharpen his control. Noah has a better balance of stuff and command than Aaron at this point, but they are very close.

4) Roberto Osuna, RHP, Grade B+: I like his delivery, I like his stuff, his control isn't bad, and he performed well out of the gate. Not classically projectable due to mature body at age 18, but he already has enough stuff to succeed if the command is there.

5) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Grade B: You have to love the stuff, 5-9 size be damned, and he knows how to use it. Will he start or relieve? He could advance very quickly in the bullpen. Don't forget he has to finish his suspension over stimulant use.

6) Sean Nolin, LHP, Grade B: I don't know why this guy doesn't get more attention. He's big (6-5, 235), has a solid fastball, good curve, change coming along, throws strikes, great performance record. Just needs to stay healthy.


7) D.J. Davis, OF, Grade B-: 80-speed and has some power, too. Will have to see how his approach develops, if his on-base skills are sufficient for a leadoff man. His speed certainly will be. Probably a five-year development project.

8) Daniel Norris, LHP, Grade B-: Despite his dismal statistical performance, scouting reports remain pretty positive, pointing to plus fastball, changeup. Breaking stuff is erratic, mechanics give him trouble and hamper his command. His FIP was 3.81, so he wasn't as bad as the 8.44 ERA suggests, but he's got work to do.

9) Matt Smoral, LHP, Grade B-: Big lefty from the 2012 draft, possibly a steal in the supplemental round though we haven't seen him pitch yet due to the broken foot that knocked his stock down. Power southpaw with impressive fastball and slider potential.

10) A.J. Jimenez, C, Grade C+: Recovering from Tommy John. Assuming that goes well, he's a solid defender with a decent bat, though he doesn't have D'Arnaud's power.

11) Santiago Nessy, C, Grade C+: I buy into his defensive skills and he's got plenty of power, but strike zone judgment is problematic. High ceiling, if he adapts well to A-ball his grade will move up quickly. Good catching depth in the system.

12) John Stilson, RHP, Grade C+: His stuff can be electric, but command is wobbly and cross-body mechanics make me cringe. I think he fits best in relief.

13) Alberto Tirado, RHP, Grade C+: Consistently good reviews for this rookie ball right-hander, who pitched better than guys with larger bonuses. Live arm, up to 94-95 MPH, and has a mix of secondary pitches to work with.

14) Chase DeJong, RHP, Grade C+: Second-round pick from California high school opened his career with 12 excellent innings in rookie ball. Superior command, doesn't have overwhelming velocity but has a better feel than some of the other arms in this range.

15) Christian Lopes, 2B, Grade C+: Solid bat with more pop than most middle infielders, polished approach. Needs more adaptation time at second base but should be at least adequate with the glove.

16) Adonys Cardona, RHP, Grade C+: High ceiling arm with great physical potential, but still struggling with secondary pitches, command, and consistency. Turns 19 next month, he's got time.

17) Kevin Pillar, OF, Grade C+: Hit .328/.378/.439 with 59 steals despite a mediocre toolset. Great instincts for the game. If you could stick his head on Jake Marisnick's body, you'd have a superstar. Pillar is probably a fourth outfielder but an interesting player.

18) Mitch Nay, 3B, Grade C+: Nay has tremendous raw power but reports on his other skills, including his defense, are mixed and he didn't play in pro ball due to injury. Could rank much higher next year.

19) Tyler Gonzales, RHP, Grade C+: Killer fastball/slider combination, but high-effort mechanics likely make him a reliever as he moves up. Another strong rookie ball arm. It will be interesting to see if the Jays handle him as judiciously as they've done with other high school guys.

20) Franklin Barreto, SS, Grade C+: Big bonus shortstop from Venezuela with speed, hitting skills. Might move to outfield but many experts considered him the top non-Cuban talent in the international market. A LONG way off at age 16, but he has a good track record in international competition which (in theory) should mean scouts have a good read on him.

OTHERS: Anthony Alford, OF; Jacob Anderson, OF; Javier Avedano RHP; Danny Barnes, RHP; Ryan Borucki, LHP; Andy Burns, INF; Taylor Cole, RHP; Matthew Dean, 3B; Yeyfry Del Rosario, RHP; Sam Dyson, RHP; Jeremy Gabryszwski, RHP; Ryan Goins, INF; Chris Hawkins, OF; Chad Jenkins, RHP; Jairo Labourt, LHP; Deck McGuire, RHP; Griffin Murphy, LHP; Dalton Pompey, OF; Dwight Smith, OF.

Some really nice pieces, although most of them are in low A ball
 
I still like the talent we have in our system after these trades. Gose is omitted due to guidelines so this would prolly be the teams top 15-20 according to John Sickels and I would think we rank somewhere in the 15-20 range.

3) Aaron Sanchez, RHP, Grade B+: Borderline A-: Stuff is even better than Syndergaard's, three plus pitches, but needs to sharpen his control. Noah has a better balance of stuff and command than Aaron at this point, but they are very close.

4) Roberto Osuna, RHP, Grade B+: I like his delivery, I like his stuff, his control isn't bad, and he performed well out of the gate. Not classically projectable due to mature body at age 18, but he already has enough stuff to succeed if the command is there.

5) Marcus Stroman, RHP, Grade B: You have to love the stuff, 5-9 size be damned, and he knows how to use it. Will he start or relieve? He could advance very quickly in the bullpen. Don't forget he has to finish his suspension over stimulant use.

6) Sean Nolin, LHP, Grade B: I don't know why this guy doesn't get more attention. He's big (6-5, 235), has a solid fastball, good curve, change coming along, throws strikes, great performance record. Just needs to stay healthy.

7) D.J. Davis, OF, Grade B-: 80-speed and has some power, too. Will have to see how his approach develops, if his on-base skills are sufficient for a leadoff man. His speed certainly will be. Probably a five-year development project.

8) Daniel Norris, LHP, Grade B-: Despite his dismal statistical performance, scouting reports remain pretty positive, pointing to plus fastball, changeup. Breaking stuff is erratic, mechanics give him trouble and hamper his command. His FIP was 3.81, so he wasn't as bad as the 8.44 ERA suggests, but he's got work to do.

9) Matt Smoral, LHP, Grade B-: Big lefty from the 2012 draft, possibly a steal in the supplemental round though we haven't seen him pitch yet due to the broken foot that knocked his stock down. Power southpaw with impressive fastball and slider potential.

10) A.J. Jimenez, C, Grade C+: Recovering from Tommy John. Assuming that goes well, he's a solid defender with a decent bat, though he doesn't have D'Arnaud's power.

11) Santiago Nessy, C, Grade C+: I buy into his defensive skills and he's got plenty of power, but strike zone judgment is problematic. High ceiling, if he adapts well to A-ball his grade will move up quickly. Good catching depth in the system.

12) John Stilson, RHP, Grade C+: His stuff can be electric, but command is wobbly and cross-body mechanics make me cringe. I think he fits best in relief.

13) Alberto Tirado, RHP, Grade C+: Consistently good reviews for this rookie ball right-hander, who pitched better than guys with larger bonuses. Live arm, up to 94-95 MPH, and has a mix of secondary pitches to work with.

14) Chase DeJong, RHP, Grade C+: Second-round pick from California high school opened his career with 12 excellent innings in rookie ball. Superior command, doesn't have overwhelming velocity but has a better feel than some of the other arms in this range.

15) Christian Lopes, 2B, Grade C+: Solid bat with more pop than most middle infielders, polished approach. Needs more adaptation time at second base but should be at least adequate with the glove.

16) Adonys Cardona, RHP, Grade C+: High ceiling arm with great physical potential, but still struggling with secondary pitches, command, and consistency. Turns 19 next month, he's got time.

17) Kevin Pillar, OF, Grade C+: Hit .328/.378/.439 with 59 steals despite a mediocre toolset. Great instincts for the game. If you could stick his head on Jake Marisnick's body, you'd have a superstar. Pillar is probably a fourth outfielder but an interesting player.

18) Mitch Nay, 3B, Grade C+: Nay has tremendous raw power but reports on his other skills, including his defense, are mixed and he didn't play in pro ball due to injury. Could rank much higher next year.

19) Tyler Gonzales, RHP, Grade C+: Killer fastball/slider combination, but high-effort mechanics likely make him a reliever as he moves up. Another strong rookie ball arm. It will be interesting to see if the Jays handle him as judiciously as they've done with other high school guys.

20) Franklin Barreto, SS, Grade C+: Big bonus shortstop from Venezuela with speed, hitting skills. Might move to outfield but many experts considered him the top non-Cuban talent in the international market. A LONG way off at age 16, but he has a good track record in international competition which (in theory) should mean scouts have a good read on him.


http://www.minorleagueball.com/2012/12/5/3731258/toronto-blue-jays-top-20-prospects-for-2013
 
also vegas has the jays at 8/1 for WS (#1!, a clear overreaction) and a more realistic 9/5 (tied first with yankees, sox/rays both at 5/1) for the AL East.

both LA teams at 17/2 for WS, so it's very tight up there, with the nats and tigers rounding out the top 5 at 9/1 and 10/1.
 
3.65 looks pretty damn good to me--- and FIP is not 'skewing' anything. FIP is just as relevant stat as anything

It's skewing stats when you emphasize his fluke ERA in 2012 (while ignoring his FIP) and emphasize his FIP in previous years because it's a nicer number to talk about than his high ERA. It's cherry picking.
 
Now we all know why AA was so hung up on drafting pitching the last 3 years. Stockpiled the crap out of them. And even after all the moves we still have some pretty good pieces to build on. I'm definitely keeping my eye on Smoral as he develops, I think he's going to be a special pitcher. Huge frame, sound mechanics just unlucky getting hurt.
 
AA stated acquiring a number one pitcher RA. Im paraphrasing but leads me to believe hes the opening day starter. Number one pitcher for whatever its worth.
 
AA stated acquiring a number one pitcher RA. Im paraphrasing but leads me to believe hes the opening day starter. Number one pitcher for whatever its worth.

Yeah he referred to Dickey as an ace, so I wouldn't be surprised at all if he was the opening day starter
 
It's skewing stats when you emphasize his fluke ERA in 2012 (while ignoring his FIP) and emphasize his FIP in previous years because it's a nicer number to talk about than his high ERA. It's cherry picking.

I'm not sitting here cherry picking stats like you are implying. The intention of FIP is to be a more accurate representation of a pitchers ERA. It basically measures what a pitchers ERA would be with with league avg fielding on balls in play.

Morrows FIP has actually been consistently good over the last three seasons:

3.16-2010
3.64-2011
3.65-2012

It is a huge mistake to look at his bad ERA's over that 2 season span and write off his performance. Do you think his year was flukey last year because he had a 3.65 FIP? Thats pretty damn solid.
Morrow is not a flukey pitcher, plain and simple. You seem to be the only one on here saying that.
 
Bottom Line: AA did what Burkie has FAILED to do; build a winner, acquire big time player, give the fans what they want.

He probably was fed up with the 500 record over the past 5 seasons, especially the injury ridden 2012 season. Time to PUT up and SHUT up. And Romero... you better bring it!
 
Bottom Line: AA did what Burkie has FAILED to do; build a winner, acquire big time player, give the fans what they want.

He probably was fed up with the 500 record over the past 5 seasons, especially the injury ridden 2012 season. Time to PUT up and SHUT up. And Romero... you better bring it!

Lol Burke thought he had built a winner as well, when he acquired All Star D man Mike Komiserak, Stanley Cup champion Francios Beachmin and 21 year old 30 goal scorer, Phil Kessel.

Point is, you can't declare a team a "winner" until they, you know, win...
 
Point is, you can't declare a team a "winner" until they, you know, win...

Sorry, but this team is a WINNER. Look at the team... there is no reason to complain. AA knows the time is now!

Lol Burke thought he had built a winner as well, when he acquired All Star D man Mike Komiserak, Stanley Cup champion Francios Beachmin and 21 year old 30 goal scorer, Phil Kessel.

Burkie is overrated. Kessel is the only real talent he's pursued... the guy fails to put a competitive on the ice. Jays have always been a 500 team, now they'll surpass that.
 
Lol Burke thought he had built a winner as well, when he acquired All Star D man Mike Komiserak, Stanley Cup champion Francios Beachmin and 21 year old 30 goal scorer, Phil Kessel.

Point is, you can't declare a team a "winner" until they, you know, win...

Not a fair comparison. Burke came into a team that was at rock bottom, signed and acquired some mid-level talent; traded for Kessel and called it a day. It was a massive hack job.

AA spent 3 years stocking prospects and doing a proper rebuild, building a respectable team from within and trying out some underachievers on cheap contracts that were handed to us for nothing (Bautista, Rasmus, EE, Escobar) who ended up being great (whereas Burke got overpaid players like Phaneuf), and then, and only when they were set in their core, did he go and get LEGIT all star talent (not washed up bums like Komisarek and Giguere)

No comparison whatsoever. One half assed it, the other did things right.
 
Lol Burke thought he had built a winner as well, when he acquired All Star D man Mike Komiserak, Stanley Cup champion Francios Beachmin and 21 year old 30 goal scorer, Phil Kessel.

Komi was all star game player, not an actual league all-star; he won the Montreal reserved spot in a popularity contest. Who cares.
 
I don't think Burke has half assed it. Some of his first round picks are still in junior. He hasn't panicked like Ferguson did and traded his first round picks for older vets. Actually the only first round pick he traded was for Kessel, and Schenn who he obviously got JVR back. His free agent signings haven't turned out at all, but his trade for Gardiner and Lupul has worked out and our minor league system hasn't been this full sense..........God knows when. People like to say hockey prospects develop faster than baseball prospects but maybe not as fast as we may think. Yes the Leafs have failed miserably but one thing I can give Burke credit for is not forcing a trade just for a playoff spot, I think it will pay down the line with guys like Finn, Percy, Biggs, Brown, Rielly, and guys in the AHL (Frattin, Kadri) etc..

The one thing that gets Burke in trouble is he opens his mouth too much. If he just shut up for once and not sound like a total ***** I think he would get a lot more support from the fan base. His cockiness and the failure of the big club does him no favours.
 
think I'd rather have Bonifacio at 2nd over Izturis... but that looks like the team we'll go with. I think at most AA will add something else to the bullpen, I think I heard him say that on Primetime today.
Does anybody have a list of the current FA setup or closers available. I think I heard Soriano is available. Seems like it would be a good addition, espcially if Oliver decides to retire.

Izturis is the better defensive player at 2nd. Bonifacio will get plenty of playing time as the supersub.
 
Izturis is the better defensive player at 2nd. Bonifacio will get plenty of playing time as the supersub.

Izturis will probably start out at 2B and then when people come to realize how much better the team will be with Bonifacio in the line-up, they'll make the switch during the season.

This supersub role is not only limited to Bonifacio, but Izturis can play it also. Particularly, the infield.

High risk, high reward, win-win situation for both.

Haven't seen such high expectations since the hey day (85-93)

This trade was anything but 'win-win'. The only win-win situation occurs if the Jays win the World Series and the Mets turn in some hall-of-fame players, which out of all scenarios is the least likely.

I fail to see why everyone is so concerned about the order of the rotation.

Me too. Other than putting Dickey between two power arms (which is common sense), there isn't really much to discuss.

Curious how many guys out there you'd consider to have "a long track record of being clutch in high pressure situations" - that proven ninth-inning World Series guy.

There really isn't any. I think he just has some false image that Mariano Rivera's of the closer position fall out of trees.

You would be absolutely correct.

Because I have to admit, my sense is that's a REALLY short list. More often we see the World Series *make* a closer's reputation, and if they're lucky they live up to that reputation for another season or two before falling back into the pack.

Yup: Sergio Romo, Jason Motte, Brian Wilson, Adam Wainwright, Bobby Jenks, David Price, Ryan Madson -- to name a few. Other than Rivera and Papelbon (arguably), the closer position can be vastly overrated.

Hell, look at Detroit. Valverde wasn't getting the job done, so the Tigers went to Phil Coke...

A closer can save 9 games out of 10 during the regular season and be credited as a great closer. But in the playoffs, that one blown save (which you can easily argue is contrary to the pitchers norms), all of sudden discredits him as a legitimate in 'high-pressure situations' -- whatever that means.

Sergio Romo is a perfect example from the Giants' run this season: he's been a solid set-up man with one of the top K:BB ratios in the league of a couple of years now, but nobody would have said he was "proven" in the sense you suggest. Yet he was lights out for San Francisco.

He's a perfect example of a relief pitcher, who will perform good regardless of what situation he's in. I've been a big fan of his for a long-time, and I am glad he's now getting his chance to be more in the spotlight.

That's how I think the Jays have positioned themselves: they've got a collection of great arms in the 'pen, any one of whom could step up and be *that guy*.

It's more important, in my opinion, that they do not prioritize particular innings over other innings. For example, not using your closer in the 9th inning of a tie-game only to use him in extra-innings is stupid; it's bad bullpen management. Same goes with situations in the 8th inning when you need a crucial out because he's "your 9th inning guy". The 7th and 8th innings can be just as important as the 9th.

Part of this worry is solved because I think based on the rotation on paper, all pitchers are capable of going at least 6 innings every start. The bullpen can be divided up from there.

certainly earned the opportunity to close out of the gate - he also happens to be one of my facourite Jays. But if he struggles for stretches I'm confident another guy will step forward. Anthopolous might well like to get an established late-innings arm, but I think it's a luxury at this point. There's depth and quality in the 'pen, and the Jays' run will establish another name or two as "proven" guys, just like 20 years ago.

The other important aspect is that even in worse-case scenario, the Jays acquire a reliever at the deadline. There is no other position that is as accessible trade wise than relievers at this time.
 
So what are everyone's thoughts on what the bullpen will look like?

You've got the options here....

LHP:
Cecil
Happ
Loup
Perez
Crawford
Oliver *

RHP:
Delabar
Dyson
Janssen
Jeffress
Jenkins
Rogers
Santos

Plus you've got free agency that you can hit up. What are you expecting???

I almost want to see Happ starting down in AAA to stay stretched out.

Go with:

Santos
Janssen
Lincoln
Delabar
Rogers
Oliver/Loup
Cecil (I think he could have a Janssen type resurgence)
 
Izturis will probably start out at 2B and then when people come to realize how much better the team will be with Bonifacio in the line-up, they'll make the switch during the season.

This supersub role is not only limited to Bonifacio, but Izturis can play it also. Particularly, the infield.

Infield yes, outfield like Bonifacio, no.
 
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Lol Burke thought he had built a winner as well, when he acquired All Star D man Mike Komiserak, Stanley Cup champion Francios Beachmin and 21 year old 30 goal scorer, Phil Kessel.

Point is, you can't declare a team a "winner" until they, you know, win...

Burke has never come close to acquiring prospects like AA did (TDA, Gose, Syndergaard, Sanchez, Osuna VS. Rielly, Gardiner, Colborne), acquiring legit stars like AA has (Reyes, Buehrle, Johnson, Dickey, Cabrera on top of guys that arrived right around he did like Bautista & EE VS. Kessel & Lupul) and he's not even remotely come close to building a team like this (#1 favourite to win the World Series vs. rarely in his tenure being expected to be in the top 16 of the NHL).

The Jays have a lot of question marks and have yet to play a game with this team, but the two situations and the way the two GMs have acted is not at all the same.
 
Bottom Line: AA did what Burkie has FAILED to do; build a winner, acquire big time player, give the fans what they want.

He probably was fed up with the 500 record over the past 5 seasons, especially the injury ridden 2012 season. Time to PUT up and SHUT up. And Romero... you better bring it!
To be fair Burke can't use MLSE's assets to make moves allowing massive increases in payroll since the NHL has a cap. Going AA's route would also include trading Rielly and company.
 
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